Systems modelling of the socio-technical aspects of residential electricity use and network peak demand

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price,managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tick box interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.

Review and future options for computer modelling in the sugar industry

Computer modelling has been used extensively in some processes in the sugar industry to achieve significant gains. This paper reviews the investigations carried out over approximately the last twenty five years, including the successes but also areas where problems and delays have been encountered. In that time the capability of both hardware and software have increased dramatically. For some processes such as cane cleaning, cane billet preparation, and sugar drying, the application of computer modelling towards improved equipment design and operation has been quite limited. A particular problem has been the large number of particles and particle interactions in these…

The Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): overview and experimental design

The climate in the Arctic is changing faster than anywhere else on earth. Poorly understood feedback processes relating to Arctic clouds and aerosol–cloud interactions contribute to a poor understanding of the present changes in the Arctic climate system, and also to a large spread in projections of future climate in the Arctic. The problem is exacerbated by the paucity of research-quality observations in the central Arctic. Improved formulations in climate models require such observations, which can only come from measurements in situ in this difficult-to-reach region with logistically demanding environmental conditions. The Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) was the most extensive central Arctic Ocean expedition with an atmospheric focus during the International Polar Year (IPY) 2007–2008. ASCOS focused on the study of the formation and life cycle of low-level Arctic clouds. ASCOS departed from Longyearbyen on Svalbard on 2 August and returned on 9 September 2008. In transit into and out of the pack ice, four short research stations were undertaken in the Fram Strait: two in open water and two in the marginal ice zone. After traversing the pack ice northward, an ice camp was set up on 12 August at 87°21' N, 01°29' W and remained in operation through 1 September, drifting with the ice. During this time, extensive measurements were taken of atmospheric gas and particle chemistry and physics, mesoscale and boundary-layer meteorology, marine biology and chemistry, and upper ocean physics. ASCOS provides a unique interdisciplinary data set for development and testing of new hypotheses on cloud processes, their interactions with the sea ice and ocean and associated physical, chemical, and biological processes and interactions. For example, the first-ever quantitative observation of bubbles in Arctic leads, combined with the unique discovery of marine organic material, polymer gels with an origin in the ocean, inside cloud droplets suggests the possibility of primary marine organically derived cloud condensation nuclei in Arctic stratocumulus clouds. Direct observations of surface fluxes of aerosols could, however, not explain observed variability in aerosol concentrations, and the balance between local and remote aerosols sources remains open. Lack of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) was at times a controlling factor in low-level cloud formation, and hence for the impact of clouds on the surface energy budget. ASCOS provided detailed measurements of the surface energy balance from late summer melt into the initial autumn freeze-up, and documented the effects of clouds and storms on the surface energy balance during this transition. In addition to such process-level studies, the unique, independent ASCOS data set can and is being used for validation of satellite retrievals, operational models, and reanalysis data sets.

Understanding Early Childhood Education and Care in Australia: Practices and Perspectives

A foundational text for pre-service teachers explaining the theories, policies and pedagogies that shape the provision of early childhood education and care in Australia. In order to effectively practise as an early childhood educator it is essential to understand the theories, policies and pedagogy that shape the discipline. Understanding Early Childhood Education and Care in Australia provides core foundational knowledge that is critical for best practice. Part One looks at concepts of childhood and the development of mass education before examining influential theories including developmental psychology, sociology, feminisms and critical theory. Specific approaches are also analysed including Reggio Emilia, Montessori, Multiple Intelligences and HighScope. Part Two focuses on the guiding frameworks and policies in Australia and explores in depth issues affecting Indigenous children and provisions for recognising diversity and the practice of inclusion. The final section examines teaching and leadership and considers curriculum, pedagogy and assessment, building relationships between staff and families, the care of babies and infants, the environment in which early childhood education takes place and the responsibilities and professional development of teachers. This essential reference will ensure pre-service teachers develop a sophisticated understanding of how theory underpins effective practice in early childhood education.

Disorganizing educational tropes: Conceptions of dis/ability and curriculum

A study examined the politics of dis/ability and curriculum. Data were obtained from a review of the new disability studies literature, focusing on the areas of history, sociology, anthropology, and critical legal theory. The results indicate that this new literature challenges popular psychoeducational models that assume disability as an objective medical, individual, and pathological deficiency, effectively restricting the systematic study of dis/ability as relational, external, shifting, and socially constituted. The findings suggest ways in which perceptions of “school problems” have to be adjusted to understand how the constant refiguration of normativities in everyday activities creates perceptions of disability-negative ontologies, generates experiences that incite efforts to modify those perceptions in multiple ways, and produces unintended effects from well-intended approaches that in the end remain irreducible to simplistic definitions for the one “ethical” or “politically correct” strategy.

Sharing social space with strangers: Setting, signalling and policing informal rules of driving etiquette

Recent research suggests that aggressive driving may be influenced by driver perceptions of their interactions with other drivers in terms of ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ behaviour. Drivers appear to take a moral standpoint on ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ driving behaviour. However, ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ in the context of road use is not defined solely by legislation, but includes informal rules that are sometimes termed ‘driving etiquette’. Driving etiquette has implications for road safety and public safety since breaches of both formal and informal rules may result in moral judgement of others and subsequent behaviours designed to punish the ‘offender’ or ‘teach them a lesson’. This paper outlines qualitative research that was undertaken with drivers to explore their understanding of driving etiquette and how they reacted to other drivers’ observance or violation of their understanding. The aim was to develop an explanatory framework within which the relationships between driving etiquette and aggressive driving could be understood, specifically moral judgement of other drivers and punishment of their transgression of driving etiquette. Thematic analysis of focus groups (n=10) generated three main themes: (1) courtesy and reciprocity, and the notion of two-way responsibility, with examples of how expectations of courteous behaviour vary according to the traffic interaction; (2) acknowledgement and shared social experience: ‘giving the wave’; and (3) responses to breaches of the expectations/informal rules. The themes are discussed in terms of their roles in an explanatory framework of the informal rules of etiquette and how interactions between drivers can reinforce or weaken a driver’s understanding of driver etiquette and potentially lead to driving aggression.

Pedestrian self-reported exposure to distraction by smart phones while walking and crossing the road

Pedestrian crashes account for approximately 14% of road fatalities in Australia. Crossing the road, while a minor part of total walking, presents the highest crash risk because of potential interaction with motor vehicles. Crash risk is elevated by pedestrian illegal use of the road, which may be widespread (e.g. 20% of crossings at signalised intersections at a sample of sites, Brisbane) and enforcement is rare. Effective road crossing requires integration of multiple skills and judgements, any of which can be hindered by distraction. Observational studies suggest that pedestrians are increasingly likely to ‘multitask’, using mobile technology for entertainment and communication, elevating the risk of distraction while crossing. To investigate this, intercept interviews were conducted with a convenience sample of 211 pedestrians aged 18-65 years in Brisbane CBD. Self-reported frequency of using a smart phone for activities at two levels of distraction: cognitive only (voice calls); or cognitive and visual (text messages, internet access) while walking or crossing the road was collected. Results indicated that smart phone use for potentially distracting activities while walking and while crossing the road was high, especially among 18-30 year olds, who were significantly more likely than 31-44yo or 45-65yo to report smart phone use while crossing the road. For 18-30yo and the higher risk activity of crossing the road, 32% texted at high frequency levels and 27% used internet at high frequency levels. Risky levels of distracted crossing appear to be a growing safety issue for 18-30yo, with greater attention to appropriate interventions needed.

Generalised growth models for aquatic species with an application to blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra)

This paper presents a maximum likelihood method for estimating growth parameters for an aquatic species that incorporates growth covariates, and takes into consideration multiple tag-recapture data. Individual variability in asymptotic length, age-at-tagging, and measurement error are also considered in the model structure. Using distribution theory, the log-likelihood function is derived under a generalised framework for the von Bertalanffy and Gompertz growth models. Due to the generality of the derivation, covariate effects can be included for both models with seasonality and tagging effects investigated. Method robustness is established via comparison with the Fabens, improved Fabens, James and a non-linear mixed-effects growth models, with the maximum likelihood method performing the best. The method is illustrated further with an application to blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) for which a strong growth-retarding tagging effect that persisted for several months was detected

Modeling strategies in longitudinal data analysis: Covariate, variance function and correlation structure selection

A modeling paradigm is proposed for covariate, variance and working correlation structure selection for longitudinal data analysis. Appropriate selection of covariates is pertinent to correct variance modeling and selecting the appropriate covariates and variance function is vital to correlation structure selection. This leads to a stepwise model selection procedure that deploys a combination of different model selection criteria. Although these criteria find a common theoretical root based on approximating the Kullback-Leibler distance, they are designed to address different aspects of model selection and have different merits and limitations. For example, the extended quasi-likelihood information criterion (EQIC) with a covariance penalty performs well for covariate selection even when the working variance function is misspecified, but EQIC contains little information on correlation structures. The proposed model selection strategies are outlined and a Monte Carlo assessment of their finite sample properties is reported. Two longitudinal studies are used for illustration.

Relationship between malnutrition and selected risk factors in two hospitals in Vietnam

Aim: The purpose of this study was to determine the percentage of patients assessed as malnourished using the Subjective Global Assessment in two hospitals in Ho Chi Minh City and Can Tho across multiple wards; and to investigate the association with factors including gender, age, days since admission, medical diagnosis and number of medications used. Methods: This cross-sectional study involved 205 inpatients from a hospital in Ho Chi Minh City and 78 inpatients and 89 outpatients from a hospital in Can Tho. Malnutrition status was assessed using Subjective Global Assessment. Ward, gender, age, medical diagnosis, time since admission and medication number were extracted from medical records. Results: 35.6% of inpatients and 9.0% of outpatients were malnourished. Multivariate analysis revealed factors predicting malnutrition status within inpatients (OR (95%CI)) were: age (OR = 1.03 (1.01-1.06)); cancer diagnosis (OR = 34.25 (3.16-370.89)); respiratory ward (11.49 (1.05-125.92)); or general medicine ward (20.34 (2.10-196.88)). Conclusions: Results indicate that malnutrition is a common problem in hospitals in Vietnam. Further research is needed to confirm this finding across a wider range of hospitals and to investigate the feasibility and efficacy of implementation of nutrition interventions in hospital settings.

Spectral and thermal sensing for nitrogen and water status in rainfed and irrigated wheat environments

Variable-rate technologies and site-specific crop nutrient management require real-time spatial information about the potential for response to in-season crop management interventions. Thermal and spectral properties of canopies can provide relevant information for non-destructive measurement of crop water and nitrogen stresses. In previous studies, foliage temperature was successfully estimated from canopy-scale (mixed foliage and soil) temperatures and the multispectral Canopy Chlorophyll Content Index (CCCI) was effective in measuring canopy-scale N status in rainfed wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) systems in Horsham, Victoria, Australia. In the present study, results showed that under irrigated wheat systems in Maricopa, Arizona, USA, the theoretical derivation of foliage temperature unmixing produced relationships similar to those in Horsham. Derivation of the CCCI led to an r2 relationship with chlorophyll a of 0.53 after Zadoks stage 43. This was later than the relationship (r2 = 0.68) developed for Horsham after Zadoks stage 33 but early enough to be used for potential mid-season N fertilizer recommendations. Additionally, ground-based hyperspectral data estimated plant N (g kg)1) in Horsham with an r2 = 0.86 but was confounded by water supply and N interactions. By combining canopy thermal and spectral properties, varying water and N status can potentially be identified eventually permitting targeted N applications to those parts of a field where N can be used most efficiently by the crop.

Epithelial-mesenchymal axis in head and neck cancer cell lines

Objectives: Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is a heterogeneous tumour type which necessitates multiple invitro models to attain an appreciation of its multiple subtypes. The phenomenon of epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) isimportant to the development of a metastatic cancer cell phenotype being relevant to the ability of cancer cells to intravasate intovasculature and to invade tissues. The role of EMT in human papilloma virus (HPV) positive HNSCC is not well understood. Thispaper aims to characterize seven HNSCC cell lines (FaDu, SCC-25, SCC-15, CAL27, RPMI2650) including two new HPV-16positive HNSCC cell lines (UD-SCC2, 93-VU-147T) for their epithelial and mesenchymal properties. Materials and methods: A panel of HNSCC cell lines from multiple head and neck anatomical sites were profiled for basalexpression of epithelial and mesenchymal characteristics at mRNA, protein and functional levels (proliferative, migratory andinvasive properties). Furthermore, 3D spheroid forming capabilities were investigated. Results: We found that the HPV-16 positive cell line, in particular UD-SCC2 demonstrated a more invasive and mesenchymalphenotype at the molecular and functional levels suggesting HPV infection may mediate some of these cellular properties.Moreover, HPV-negative cell lines were not strictly epithelial presenting with a dynamic range of expression. Conclusions: This study presents the molecular and phenotypic diversity of HNSCC cell lines. It highlights the need formore studies in this field and a scoring system where HNSCC cell lines are ranked according to their respective epithelial andmesenchymal nature. This data will be useful to anyone modelling HNSCC behaviour, providing a molecular context which willenable them to decipher cell phenotypes and to develop therapies which block EMT progression.

Rail fatigue and the role of impact forces

Fatigue of the steel in rails continues to be of major concern to heavy haul track owners despite careful selection and maintenance of rails. The persistence of fatigue is due in part to the erroneous assumption that the maximum loads on, and stresses in, the rails are predictable. Recent analysis of extensive wheel impact detector data from a number of heavy haul tracks has shown that the most damaging forces are in fact randomly distributed with time and location and can be much greater than generally expected. Large- scale Monte-Carlo simulations have been used to identify rail stresses caused by actual, measured distributions of wheel-rail forces on heavy haul tracks. The simulations show that fatigue failure of the rail foot can occur in situations which would be overlooked by traditional analyses. The most serious of these situations are those where track is accessed by multiple operators and in situations where there is a mix of heavy haul, general freight and/or passenger traffic. The least serious are those where the track is carrying single-operator-owned heavy haul unit trains. The paper shows how using the nominal maximum axle load of passing traffic, which is the key issue in traditional analyses, is insufficient and must be augmented with consideration of important operational factors. Ignoring such factors can be costly.

Species and Hybrids: Chemical and Physical Foliar Attributes and Implications for Herbivory.

Hybridization is an important biological phenomenon that can be used to understand the evolutionary process of speciation of plants and their associated pests and diseases. Interactions between hybrid plants and the herbivores of the parental taxa may be used to elucidate the various cues being used by the pests for host location or other processes. The chemical composition of plants, and their physical foliar attributes, including leaf thickness, trichome density, moisture content and specific leaf weight were compared between allopatric pure and commercial hybrid species of Corymbia, an important subtropical hardwood taxon. The leaf-eating beetle Paropsis atomaria, to which the pure taxa represented host (C. citriodora subsp. variegata) and non-host (C. torelliana) plants, was used to examine patterns of herbivory in relation to these traits. Hybrid physical foliar traits, chemical profiles, and field and laboratory beetle feeding preference, while showing some variability, were generally intermediate to those exhibited by parent taxa, thus suggesting an additive inheritance pattern. The hybrid susceptibility hypothesis was not supported by our field or laboratory studies, and there was no strong relationship between adult preference and larval performance. The most-preferred adult host was the sympatric taxon, although this species supported the lowest larval survival, while the hybrid produced significantly smaller pupae than the pure species. The results are discussed in relation to plant chemistry and physical characteristics. The findings suggest a chemical basis for host selection behavior and indicate that it may be possible to select for resistance to this insect pest in these commercially important hardwood trees.

Purification and physicochemical, kinetic and immunological properties of allosteric serine hydroxymethyltransferase from monkey liver.

The homogeneous serine hydroxymethyltransferase purified from monkey liver, by the use of Blue Sepharose affinity chromatography, exhibited positive homotropic co-operative interactions (h = 2.5) with tetrahydrofolate and heterotropic interactions with L-serine and nicotinamide nucleotides. The enzyme had an unusually high temperature optimum of 60 degrees C and was protected against thermal inactivation by L-serine. The allosteric effects were abolished when the monkey liver enzyme was purified by using a heat-denaturation step in the presence of L-serine, a procedure adopted by earlier workers for the purification of this enzyme from mammalian and bacterial sources. The enzyme activity was inhibited completely by N5-methyltetrahydrofolate, N5-formyltetrahydrofolate, dichloromethotrexate, aminopterin and D-cycloserine, whereas methotrexate and dihydrofolate were partial inhibitors. The insoluble monkey liver enzyme-antibody complex was catalytically active and failed to show positive homotropic co-operative interactions with tetrahydrofolate (h = 1) and heterotropic interactions with NAD+. The enzyme showed a higher heat-stability in a complex with its antibody than as the free enzyme. These results highlight the pitfalls in using a heat-denaturation step in the purification of allosteric enzymes.