Simulating the effects of vegetation and landscape structure on fire behavior in northeastern Portugal: the case of holm oak (Quercus rotundifolia)

O fogo é um processo frequente nas paisagens do norte de Portugal. Estudos anteriores mostraram que os bosques de azinheira (Quercus rotundifolia) persistem após a passagem do fogo e ajudam a diminuir a sua intensidade e taxa de propagação. Os principais objetivos deste estudo foram compreender e modelar o efeito dos bosques de azinheira no comportamento do fogo ao nível da paisagem da bacia superior do rio Sabor, localizado no nordeste de Portugal. O impacto dos bosques de azinheira no comportamento do fogo foi testado em termos de área e configuração de acordo com cenários que simulam a possível distribuição destas unidades de vegetação na paisagem, considerando uma percentagem de ocupação da azinheira de 2.2% (Low), 18.1% (Moderate), 26.0% (High), e 39.8% (Rivers). Estes cenários tiveram como principal objetivo testar 1) o papel dos bosques de azinheira no comportamento do fogo e 2) de que forma a configuração das manchas de azinheira podem ajudar a diminuir a intensidade da linha de fogo e área ardida. Na modelação do comportamento do fogo foi usado o modelo FlamMap para simular a intensidade de linha do fogo e taxa de propagação do fogo com base em modelos de combustível associados a cada ocupação e uso do solo presente na área de estudo, e também com base em fatores topográficos (altitude, declive e orientação da encosta) e climáticos (humidade e velocidade do vento). Foram ainda usados dois modelos de combustível para a ocupação de azinheira (áreas interiores e de bordadura), desenvolvidos com base em dados reais obtidos na região. Usou-se o software FRAGSATS para a análise dos padrões espaciais das classes de intensidade de linha do fogo, usando-se as métricas Class Area (CA), Number of Patches (NP) e Large Patches Index (LPI). Os resultados obtidos indicaram que a intensidade da linha de fogo e a taxa de propagação do fogo variou entre cenários e entre modelos de combustível para o azinhal. A intensidade média da linha de fogo e a taxa média de propagação do fogo decresceu à medida que a percentagem de área de bosques de azinheira aumentou na paisagem. Também foi observado que as métricas CA, NP e LPI variaram entre cenários e modelos de combustível para o azinhal, decrescendo quando a percentagem de área de bosques de azinheira aumentou. Este estudo permitiu concluir que a variação da percentagem de ocupação e configuração espacial dos bosques de azinheira influenciam o comportamento do fogo, reduzindo, em termos médios, a intensidade da linha de fogo e a taxa de propagação, sugerindo que os bosques de azinhal podem ser usados como medidas silvícolas preventivas para diminuir o risco de incêndio nesta região.

A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis

For derived flood frequency analysis based on hydrological modelling long continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are needed. Often, the observation network with recording rainfall gauges is poor, especially regarding the limited length of the available rainfall time series. Stochastic precipitation synthesis is a good alternative either to extend or to regionalise rainfall series to provide adequate input for long-term rainfall-runoff modelling with subsequent estimation of design floods. Here, a new two step procedure for stochastic synthesis of continuous hourly space-time rainfall is proposed and tested for the extension of short observed precipitation time series. First, a single-site alternating renewal model is presented to simulate independent hourly precipitation time series for several locations. The alternating renewal model describes wet spell durations, dry spell durations and wet spell intensities using univariate frequency distributions separately for two seasons. The dependence between wet spell intensity and duration is accounted for by 2-copulas. For disaggregation of the wet spells into hourly intensities a predefined profile is used. In the second step a multi-site resampling procedure is applied on the synthetic point rainfall event series to reproduce the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. Resampling is carried out successively on all synthetic event series using simulated annealing with an objective function considering three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics. In a case study synthetic precipitation is generated for some locations with short observation records in two mesoscale catchments of the Bode river basin located in northern Germany. The synthetic rainfall data are then applied for derived flood frequency analysis using the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show good performance in reproducing average and extreme rainfall characteristics as well as in reproducing observed flood frequencies. The presented model has the potential to be used for ungauged locations through regionalisation of the model parameters.

Comprehensive economic and financial analysis of the enterprise activity: approaches, methods and implementation

This thesis intends to analyse the performance and the efficiency of companies and to identify the key factors that may explain it. A comprehensive analysis based on a set of economic and financial ratios was studied as an instrument which provides information on enterprise performance and its efficiency. It was selected a sample with 15 enterprises: 7 Portuguese and 8 Ukrainian ones, belonging to several industries. Financial and non-financial data was collected for 6 years, during the period of 2009 to 2014. Research questions that guided this work were: Are the enterprises efficient/profitable? What factors influence enterprises’ efficiency/performance? Is there any difference between Ukrainian and Portuguese enterprises’ efficiency/performance, which factors have more influence? Which industrial sector is represented by more efficient/profitable enterprises? The main results showed that in average enterprises were efficient; comparing by states Ukrainian enterprises are more efficient; industries have similar level of efficiency. Among factors that influence ATR positively are fixed and current assets turnover ratios, ROA; negatively influencing are EBITDA margin and liquidity ratio. There is no significant difference between models by country. Concerning profitability, enterprises have low performance level but in comparison of countries Ukrainian enterprises have better profitability in average. Regarding the industry sector, paper industry is the most profitable. Among factors influencing ROA are profit margin, fixed asset turnover ratio, EBITDA margin, Debt to equity ratio and the country. In case of profitability both countries have different models. For Ukrainian enterprises is suggested to pay attention on factors of Short-term debt to total debt, ROA, Interest coverage ratio in order to be more efficient; Profit margin and EBITDA margin to make their performance better. For Portuguese enterprises for improving efficiency the observation and improvement of fixed assets turnover ratio, current assets turnover ratio, Short-term financial debt to total debt, Leverage Ratio, EBITDA margin is suggested; for improving higher profitability track fixed assets turnover ratio, current assets turnover ratio, Debt to equity ratio, Profit margin and Interest coverage ratio is suggested.

Volatility Spillover and Multivariate Volatility Impulse Response Analysis of GFC News Events

This paper applies two measures to assess spillovers across markets: the Diebold Yilmaz (2012) Spillover Index and the Hafner and Herwartz (2006) analysis of multivariate GARCH models using volatility impulse response analysis. We use two sets of data, daily realized volatility estimates taken from the Oxford Man RV library, running from the beginning of 2000 to October 2016, for the S&P500 and the FTSE, plus ten years of daily returns series for the New York Stock Exchange Index and the FTSE 100 index, from 3 January 2005 to 31 January 2015. Both data sets capture both the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the subsequent European Sovereign Debt Crisis (ESDC). The spillover index captures the transmission of volatility to and from markets, plus net spillovers. The key difference between the measures is that the spillover index captures an average of spillovers over a period, whilst volatility impulse responses (VIRF) have to be calibrated to conditional volatility estimated at a particular point in time. The VIRF provide information about the impact of independent shocks on volatility. In the latter analysis, we explore the impact of three different shocks, the onset of the GFC, which we date as 9 August 2007 (GFC1). It took a year for the financial crisis to come to a head, but it did so on 15 September 2008, (GFC2). The third shock is 9 May 2010. Our modelling includes leverage and asymmetric effects undertaken in the context of a multivariate GARCH model, which are then analysed using both BEKK and diagonal BEKK (DBEKK) models. A key result is that the impact of negative shocks is larger, in terms of the effects on variances and covariances, but shorter in duration, in this case a difference between three and six months.

Location analysis of city sections: socio-demographic segmentation and restaurant potentiality estimation : a case study of Lisbon

One of the objectives of this study is to perform classification of socio-demographic components for the level of city section in City of Lisbon. In order to accomplish suitable platform for the restaurant potentiality map, the socio-demographic components were selected to produce a map of spatial clusters in accordance to restaurant suitability. Consequently, the second objective is to obtain potentiality map in terms of underestimation and overestimation in number of restaurants. To the best of our knowledge there has not been found identical methodology for the estimation of restaurant potentiality. The results were achieved with combination of SOM (Self-Organized Map) which provides a segmentation map and GAM (Generalized Additive Model) with spatial component for restaurant potentiality. Final results indicate that the highest influence in restaurant potentiality is given to tourist sites, spatial autocorrelation in terms of neighboring restaurants (spatial component), and tax value, where lower importance is given to household with 1 or 2 members and employed population, respectively. In addition, an important conclusion is that the most attractive market sites have shown no change or moderate underestimation in terms of restaurants potentiality.

Exergy analysis of a solar photovoltaic module

PV energy is the direct conversion of solar radiation into electricity. In this paper, an analysis of the influence of parameters such as global irradiance or temperature in the performance of a PV installation has been carried out. A PV module was installed in a building at the University of Málaga, and these parameters were experimentally determined for different days and different conditions of irradiance and temperature. Moreover, IV curves were obtained under these conditions to know the open-circuit voltage and the short-circuit current of the module. With this information, and using the first law of thermodynamics, an energy analysis was performed to determine the energy efficiency of the installation. Similarly, using the second law of thermodynamics, an exergy analysis is used to obtain the exergy efficiency. The results show that the energy efficiency varies between 10% and 12% and the exergy efficiency between 14% and 17%. It was concluded that the exergy analysis is more suitable for studying the performance, and that only electric exergy must be considered as useful exergy. This exergy efficiency can be improved if heat is removed from the PV module surface, and an optimal temperature is reached.

The Potential of Tariff Policy for Climate Change Mitigation: Legal and Economic Analysis

This paper addresses a potential role that tariffs and tariff policy can play in encouraging countries to take part in a multilateral effort to mitigate climate change. It begins by assessing whether increasing tariffs on products from energy intensive or polluting industries amounts to a violation of WTO rules and whether protectionism in this case can be differentiated from genuine environmental concerns. It then argues that while lowering tariffs for environmental goods can serve as a carrot to promote dissemination of cleaner technologies, tariff deconsolidation is a legitimate stick to encourage polluting countries to move towards an international climate agreement. The paper further explores this view by undertaking a partialequilibrium simulation analysis to examine the impact of a unilateral unit increase in tariffs on the imports of the most carbon-intensive products from countries not committed to climate polices. Our results suggest that the committed importing countries would have to raise their tariffs only slightly to effect a significant decline in the imports of these products from the non-committed countries. For instance, a unit increase in the simple average applied tariffs on the imports of these carbon-intensive products in 2005 from our sample of non-committed exporting countries would reduce the imports of these products by an average 32.6% in Australia, 178% in Canada, 195% in the EU, 271% in Japan and 62% in the US, therebysuggesting the effectiveness of such a measure in pushing countries towards a global climate policy.

An analysis of the effects of preferential trade policies through the estimation of quantitative models: the case of Portugal.

Doutoramento em Economia.

Changes in the storage and sink of carbon dioxide in subsurface atmospheres controlled by climate-driven processes: the case of the Ojo Guareña karst system

A comprehensive environmental monitoring program was conducted in the Ojo Guareña cave system (Spain), one of the longest cave systems in Europe, to assess the magnitude of the spatiotemporal changes in carbon dioxide gas (CO2) in the cave–soil–atmosphere profile. The key climate-driven processes involved in gas exchange, primarily gas diffusion and cave ventilation due to advective forces, were characterized. The spatial distributions of both processes were described through measurements of CO2 and its carbon isotopic signal (δ13C[CO2]) from exterior, soil and cave air samples analyzed by cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CRDS). The trigger mechanisms of air advection (temperature or air density differences or barometric imbalances) were controlled by continuous logging systems. Radon monitoring was also used to characterize the changing airflow that results in a predictable seasonal or daily pattern of CO2 concentrations and its carbon isotopic signal. Large daily oscillations of CO2 levels, ranging from 680 to 1900 ppm day−1 on average, were registered during the daily oscillations of the exterior air temperature around the cave air temperature. These daily variations in CO2 concentration were unobservable once the outside air temperature was continuously below the cave temperature and a prevailing advective-renewal of cave air was established, such that the daily-averaged concentrations of CO2 reached minimum values close to atmospheric background. The daily pulses of CO2 and other tracer gases such as radon (222Rn) were smoothed in the inner cave locations, where fluctuation of both gases was primarily correlated with medium-term changes in air pressure. A pooled analysis of these data provided evidence that atmospheric air that is inhaled into dynamically ventilated caves can then return to the lower troposphere as CO2-rich cave air.

Integration of a Sedimentation Module to a Hydrologic Model and its Application to a Mercury TMDL Analysis

This research is part of continued efforts to correlate the hydrology of East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) and Bear Creek (BC) with the long term distribution of mercury within the overland, subsurface, and river sub-domains. The main objective of this study was to add a sedimentation module (ECO Lab) capable of simulating the reactive transport mercury exchange mechanisms within sediments and porewater throughout the watershed. The enhanced model was then applied to a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) mercury analysis for EFPC. That application used historical precipitation, groundwater levels, river discharges, and mercury concentrations data that were retrieved from government databases and input to the model. The model was executed to reduce computational time, predict flow discharges, total mercury concentration, flow duration and mercury mass rate curves at key monitoring stations under various hydrological and environmental conditions and scenarios. The computational results provided insight on the relationship between discharges and mercury mass rate curves at various stations throughout EFPC, which is important to best understand and support the management mercury contamination and remediation efforts within EFPC.

Improving the Performance of Database-Centric Applications Through Program Analysis

Thesis (Ph.D, Computing) -- Queen's University, 2016-09-30 09:55:51.506

Climate Change Adaptation Case Study: Benefit-Cost Analysis of Coastal Flooding Hazard Mitigation

The damage Hurricane Sandy caused had far-reaching repercussions up and down the East Coast of the United States. Vast coastal flooding accompanied the storm, inundating homes, businesses, and utility and emergency facilities. Since the storm, projects to mitigate similar future floods have been scrutinized. Such projects not only need to keep out floodwaters but also be designed to withstand the effect that climate change might have on rising sea levels and increased flood risk. In this study, we develop an economic model to assess the costs and benefits of a berm (sea wall) to mitigate the effects of flooding from a large storm. We account for the lifecycle costs of the project, which include those for the upfront construction of the berm, ongoing maintenance, land acquisition, and wetland and recreation zone construction. Benefits of the project include avoided fatalities, avoided residential and commercial damages, avoided utility and municipal damages, recreational and health benefits, avoided debris removal expenses, and avoided loss of function of key transportation and commercial infrastructure located in the area. Our estimate of the beneficial effects of the berm includes ecosystem services from wetlands and health benefits to the surrounding community from a park and nature system constructed along the berm. To account for the effects of climate change and verify that the project will maintain its effectiveness over the long term, we allow the risk of flooding to increase over time. Over our 50-year time horizon, we double the risk of 100- and 500-year flood events to account for the effects of sea level rise on coastal flooding. Based on the economic analysis, the project is highly cost beneficial over its 50-year timeframe. This analysis demonstrates that climate change adaptation investments can be cost beneficial even though they mitigate the impacts of low-probability, high-consequence events.

L'Intégration d'un Module d'Étude Internet Dans la Classe de Comptabilité: Perceptions des Élèves et les Résultats Académiques

Implemented in the context of Business Administration students enrolled in a college level three year technology program, this research investigated students’ perceptions and academic results concurrent with the implementation of an online web module designed to facilitate student self-study. The students involved in this research were enrolled in a program that, while offering a broad education in business disciplines, specialized in the field of accounting. As a result, students were enrolled in academically rigorous accounting courses in each of the six semesters of the program. The weighting of these accounting courses imposes a significant self-study component – typically matching or exceeding the time spent in class. In this context many of the students enrolled in the Business Administration Program have faced difficulties completing the self-study component of the course effectively as demonstrated in low homework completion rates, low homework grade averages and ultimately low success rates in the courses. In an attempt to address this situation this research studied the implementation of a web-based self-study module. Through this module students could access a number of learning tools that were designed to facilitate the self-study process under the premise that more effective self-study learning tools will help remove obstacles and provide more timely confirmation of learning during student self-study efforts. This research collected data from a single cohort of students drawn from the first three sequential accounting courses of the Business Administration Program. The web-based self-study module was implemented in the third of the three sequential accounting courses. The first two of these courses implemented a traditional manual self-study environment. Data collected from the three accounting courses included homework completion rates, homework, exam and final grades for the respective courses. In addition the web-study module allowed the automatic reporting of student usage of a number of specific online learning tools. To complement the academic data, students were surveyed to gain insight into their perceptions of the effectiveness of the web-based system. The research provided a number of interesting insights. First among these was a confirmation of the importance of the self-study process in the academic achievement of the learners. Regardless of the self-study environment, manual or web-enhanced, a significant positive correlation existed between the students’ self-study results, demonstrated in both homework completion rates and homework averages and the corresponding final grades. These results confirm the importance of self-study found generally in the prevailing academic literature regarding students enrolled in higher education. In addition, the web-enhanced learning environment implemented during the third accounting course coincided with significantly higher homework completion rates and corresponding homework averages: homework completion rates in particular increased from a combined average of 63% in the first two accounting courses to 93% in the web-enhanced context of the third accounting course. Moreover, the homework completion rates of the web-enhanced course were evenly distributed across the cohort of students. A quartile-based analysis was subsequently completed. Quartiles were constructed by ranking the students according to their combined average homework completion rates from the first two manual self-study courses, Accounting I and II. The quartile-based homework completion rates for the manual self-study courses Accounting I and II were subsequently compared to the results these same quartiles of students achieved in the web-based self-study within Accounting III. While the first two courses demonstrated significantly uneven homework completion rates across the quartiles ranging from 31% to 91% homework completion rates, the differences among the four quartiles within the web-enhanced module, with an average homework completion rate of 93%, were statistically insignificant. Congruent with the positive academic results observed in the third, web-enhanced course, through the corresponding survey, students expressed a strong attitude in favor of the online self-study environment. This research was designed to add to the existing research that studies the implementation of learning in an online setting. Specifically, the research was designed to explore a middle ground of online learning – a web-enhanced course – a context that supplements the classroom experience rather than replacing it. The web-enhanced accounting course demonstrated impressive favorable results, both academically and in terms of students' perception of the system; these results suggest that a web-enhanced environment can provide learning tools that facilitate the self-study process while providing a structured learning environment that can help developing learners reach their potential.

Emergy analysis of a silvo-pastoral system, a case study in southern Portugal

The Mediterranean silvo-pastoral system known as Montado, in Portugal, is a complex land use system composed of an open tree stratum in various densities and an herbaceous layer, used for livestock grazing. Livestock also profit from the acorns, and the grazing contributes to avoid shrub encroachment. In the last 20 years, subsidies from the European Union have greatly promoted cattle rearing in this system and the introduction of heavy breeds, at the expense of sheep, goats or the native cattle breeds. The balance of the traditional system is thus threatened, and a precise assessment of the balance between the different components of the system, therefore is highly needed. The goal of this study was to gain a better under- standing of a Montado farm system with cattle rearing as the major economic activity by applying the emergy evaluation method to calculate indices of yield, investment, environmental loading and sustainability. By integrating different ecosystem components, the emergy evaluation method allows a comprehensive evaluation of this complex and multifunctional system at the scale of an individual farm. This method provides a set of indices that can help us understand the system and design management strategies that maximize emergy flow in the farm. In this paper, we apply the emergy evaluation method to a Montado farm with cattle rearing, as a way to gain a better understanding of this system at the farm scale. The value for the transformity of veal (2.66E?06 sej J-1) is slightly higher, when compared to other systems producing protein. That means that the investment of nature and man in this product was higher and it requires a premium price on the market. The renewa- bility for Holm Oaks Farm (49 %), lower than for other similar systems, supports the assumption that this is a farm in which, comparing with others, the number of purchased inputs in relation to renewable inputs provided by nature, is higher. The Emergy Investment Ratio is 0.91 for cattle rearing compared to a value of 0.49 for cork and 0.43 for firewood harvesting, making it clear that cattle rearing is a more labor demanding activity comparing with extractive activities as cork and firewood harvesting.

Sustainability analysis in the mining sector: a case study on new recycling technologies for sulphidic mine residues valorisation

Research has demonstrated that mining activities can cause serious impacts on the environment, as well as the surrounding communities, mainly due to the unsafe storage of mine tailings. This research focuses on the sustainability assessment of new technologies for the recovery of metals from mine residues. The assessment consists in the evaluation of the environmental, economic, and social impacts through the Life Cycle based methods: Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Life Cycle Costing (LCC), and Social Life Cycle Assessment (SLCA). The analyses are performed on the Mondo Minerals bioleaching project, which aim is to recover nickel and cobalt from the Sotkamo and Vuonos mine tailings. The LCA demonstrates that the project contributes to the avoided production of nickel and cobalt concentrates from new resources, hence reducing several environmental impacts. The LCC analysis shows that the company’s main costs are linked to the bioleaching process, caused by electricity consumption and the chemicals used. The SLCA analyses the impacts on three main stakeholder categories: workers, local community, and society. The results demonstrated that a fair salary (or the absence of it) impacts the workers the most, while the local community stakeholder category impacts are related to the access to material resources. The health and safety category is the most impacted category for the society stakeholder. The environmental and economic analyses demonstrate that the recovery of mine tailings may represents a good opportunity for mine companies both to reduce the environmental impacts linked to mine tailings and to increase the profitability. In particular, the project helps reduce the amounts of metals extracted from new resources and demonstrates that the use of the bioleaching technology for the extraction of metals can be economically profitable.