Modeling equity market integration using smooth transition analysis:a study of Eastern European stock markets

This paper assesses the extent to which the equity markets of Hungary, Poland the Czech Republic and Russia have become less segmented. Using a variety of tests it is shown there has been a consistent increase in the co-movement of some Eastern European markets and developed markets. Using the variance decompositions from a vector autoregressive representation of returns it is shown that for Poland and Hungary global factors are having an increasing influence on equity returns, suggestive of increased equity market integration. In this paper we model a system of bivariate equity market correlations as a smooth transition logistic trend model in order to establish how rapidly the countries of Eastern Europe are moving away from market segmentation. We find that Hungary is the country which is becoming integrated the most quickly. © 2005 ELsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Business process orientated holonic (PrOH) modeling

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to describe how the application of systems thinking to designing, managing and improving business processes has resulted in a new and unique holonic-based process modeling methodology know as process orientated holonic modeling. Design/methodology/approach: The paper describes key systems thinking axioms that are built upon in an overview of the methodology; the techniques are described using an example taken from a large organization designing and manufacturing capital goods equipment operating within a complex and dynamic environment. These were produced in an 18 month project, using an action research approach, to improve quality and process efficiency. Findings: The findings of this research show that this new methodology can support process depiction and improvement in industrial sectors which are characterized by environments of high variety and low volume (e.g. projects; such as the design and manufacture of a radar system or a hybrid production process) which do not provide repetitive learning opportunities. In such circumstances, the methodology has not only been able to deliver holonic-based process diagrams but also been able to transfer strategic vision from top management to middle and operational levels without being reductionistic. Originality/value: This paper will be of interest to organizational analysts looking at large complex projects whom require a methodology that does not confine them to thinking reductionistically in "task-breakdown" based approaches. The novel ideas in this paper have great impact on the way analysts should perceive organizational processes. Future research is applying the methodology in similar environments in other industries. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Building a holarchy using business process-oriented holonic (PrOH) modeling

The application of systems thinking to designing, managing, and improving business processes has developed a new "holonic-based" process modeling methodology. The theoretical background and the methodology are described using examples taken from a large organization designing and manufacturing capital goods equipment operating within a complex and dynamic environment. A key point of differentiation attributed to this methodology is that it allows a set of models to be produced without taking a task breakdown approach but instead uses systems thinking and a construct known as the "holon" to build process descriptions as a system of systems (i.e., a holarchy). The process-oriented holonic modeling methodology has been used for total quality management and business process engineering exercises in different industrial sectors and builds models that connect the strategic vision of a company to its operational processes. Exercises have been conducted in response to environmental pressures to make operations align with strategic thinking as well as becoming increasingly agile and efficient. This unique methodology is best applied in environments of high complexity, low volume, and high variety, where repeated learning opportunities are few and far between (e.g., large development projects). © 2007 IEEE.

Hydrodynamic modeling of mineral wool fiber suspensions in a two-dimensional channel flow

A consequence of a loss of coolant accident is the damage of adjacent insulation materials (IM). IM may then be transported to the containment sump strainers where water is drawn into the ECCS (emergency core cooling system). Blockage of the strainers by IM lead to an increased pressure drop acting on the operating ECCS pumps. IM can also penetrate the strainers, enter the reactor coolant system and then accumulate in the reactor pressure vessel. An experimental and theoretical study that concentrates on mineral wool fiber transport in the containment sump and the ECCS is being performed. The study entails fiber generation and the assessment of fiber transport in single and multi-effect experiments. The experiments include measurement of the terminal settling velocity, the strainer pressure drop, fiber sedimentation and resuspension in a channel flow and jet flow in a rectangular tank. An integrated test facility is also operated to assess the compounded effects. Each experimental facility is used to provide data for the validation of equivalent computational fluid dynamic models. The channel flow facility allows the determination of the steady state distribution of the fibers at different flow velocities. The fibers are modeled in the Eulerian-Eulerian reference frame as spherical wetted agglomerates. The fiber agglomerate size, density, the relative viscosity of the fluid-fiber mixture and the turbulent dispersion of the fibers all affect the steady state accumulation of fibers at the channel base. In the current simulations, two fiber phases are separately considered. The particle size is kept constant while the density is modified, which affects both the terminal velocity and volume fraction. The relative viscosity is only significant at higher concentrations. The numerical model finds that the fibers accumulate at the channel base even at high velocities; therefore, modifications to the drag and turbulent dispersion forces can be made to reduce fiber accumulation.

Human performance modelling as an aid to manufacturing system design

Once the factory worker was considered to be a necessary evil, soon to be replaced by robotics and automation. Today, many manufacturers appreciate that people in direct productive roles can provide important flexibility and responsiveness, and so significantly contribute to business success. The challenge is no longer to design people out of the factory, but to design factory environment that help to get the best performance from people. This paper describes research that has set out to help to achieve this by expanding the capabilities of simulation modeling tools currently used by practitioners.

Bandwidth management of WiMAX systems and performance modeling

WiMAX has been introduced as a competitive alternative for metropolitan broadband wireless access technologies. It is connection oriented and it can provide very high data rates, large service coverage, and flexible quality of services (QoS). Due to the large number of connections and flexible QoS supported by WiMAX, the uplink access in WiMAX networks is very challenging since the medium access control (MAC) protocol must efficiently manage the bandwidth and related channel allocations. In this paper, we propose and investigate a cost-effective WiMAX bandwidth management scheme, named the WiMAX partial sharing scheme (WPSS), in order to provide good QoS while achieving better bandwidth utilization and network throughput. The proposed bandwidth management scheme is compared with a simple but inefficient scheme, named the WiMAX complete sharing scheme (WCPS). A maximum entropy (ME) based analytical model (MEAM) is proposed for the performance evaluation of the two bandwidth management schemes. The reason for using MEAM for the performance evaluation is that MEAM can efficiently model a large-scale system in which the number of stations or connections is generally very high, while the traditional simulation and analytical (e.g., Markov models) approaches cannot perform well due to the high computation complexity. We model the bandwidth management scheme as a queuing network model (QNM) that consists of interacting multiclass queues for different service classes. Closed form expressions for the state and blocking probability distributions are derived for those schemes. Simulation results verify the MEAM numerical results and show that WPSS can significantly improve the network's performance compared to WCPS.

eHabitat, a multi-purpose Web Processing Service for ecological modeling

The number of interoperable research infrastructures has increased significantly with the growing awareness of the efforts made by the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). One of the Societal Benefit Areas (SBA) that is benefiting most from GEOSS is biodiversity, given the costs of monitoring the environment and managing complex information, from space observations to species records including their genetic characteristics. But GEOSS goes beyond simple data sharing to encourage the publishing and combination of models, an approach which can ease the handling of complex multi-disciplinary questions. It is the purpose of this paper to illustrate these concepts by presenting eHabitat, a basic Web Processing Service (WPS) for computing the likelihood of finding ecosystems with equal properties to those specified by a user. When chained with other services providing data on climate change, eHabitat can be used for ecological forecasting and becomes a useful tool for decision-makers assessing different strategies when selecting new areas to protect. eHabitat can use virtually any kind of thematic data that can be considered as useful when defining ecosystems and their future persistence under different climatic or development scenarios. The paper will present the architecture and illustrate the concepts through case studies which forecast the impact of climate change on protected areas or on the ecological niche of an African bird.

Numerical modeling of holmium-doped fluoride fiber lasers

We combine all the known experimental demonstrations and spectroscopic parameters into a numerical model of the Ho3+ -doped fluoride glass fiber laser system. Core-pumped and cladding-pumped arrangements were simulated for all the population-bottlenecking mitigation schemes that have been tested, and good agreement between the model and the previously reported experimental results was achieved in most but not in all cases. In a similar way to Er3+ -doped fluoride glass fiber lasers, we found that the best match with measurements required scaled-down rate parameters for the energy transfer processes that operate in moderate to highly concentrated systems. The model isolated the dominant processes affecting the performance of each of the bottlenecking mitigation schemes and pump arrangements. It was established that pump excited-state absorption is the main factor affecting the performance of the core-pumped demonstrations of the laser, while energy transfer between rare earth ions is the main factor controlling the performance in cladding-pumped systems.

Modeling and validating dynamic adaptation

This paper discusses preliminary work on modeling and validation dynamic adaptation. The proposed approach is on the use of aspect-oriented modeling (AOM) and models at runtime. Our approach covers design and runtime phases. At design-time, a base model and different variant architecture models are designed and the adaptation model is built. Crucially, the adaptation model includes invariant properties and constraints that allow the validation of the adaptation rules before execution. During runtime, the adaptation model is processed to produce a correct system configuration that can be executed.

Modeling impact of both frame collisions and frame corruptions on IEEE 802.15.4 channel access for smart grid applications

IEEE 802.15.4 standard has been recently developed for low power wireless personal area networks. It can find many applications for smart grid, such as data collection, monitoring and control functions. The performance of 802.15.4 networks has been widely studied in the literature. However the main focus has been on the modeling throughput performance with frame collisions. In this paper we propose an analytic model which can model the impact of frame collisions as well as frame corruptions due to channel bit errors. With this model the frame length can be carefully selected to improve system performance. The analytic model can also be used to study the 802.15.4 networks with interference from other co-located networks, such as IEEE 802.11 and Bluetooth networks. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Enclosing the behavior of a hybrid system up to and beyond a Zeno point

Even simple hybrid systems like the classic bouncing ball can exhibit Zeno behaviors. The existence of this type of behavior has so far forced simulators to either ignore some events or risk looping indefinitely. This in turn forces modelers to either insert ad hoc restrictions to circumvent Zeno behavior or to abandon hybrid modeling. To address this problem, we take a fresh look at event detection and localization. A key insight that emerges from this investigation is that an enclosure for a given time interval can be valid independently of the occurrence of a given event. Such an event can then even occur an unbounded number of times, thus making it possible to handle certain types of Zeno behavior.

Control of second-life hybrid battery energy storage system based on modular boost-multilevel buck converter

To fully utilize second-life batteries on the grid system, a hybrid battery scheme needs to be considered for several reasons: the uncertainty over using a single source supply chain for second-life batteries, the differences in evolving battery chemistry and battery configuration by different suppliers to strive for greater power levels, and the uncertainty of degradation within a second-life battery. Therefore, these hybrid battery systems could have widely different module voltage, capacity, and initial state of charge and state of health. In order to suitably integrate and control these widely different batteries, a suitable multimodular converter topology and an associated control structure are required. This paper addresses these issues proposing a modular boost-multilevel buck converter based topology to integrate these hybrid second-life batteries to a grid-tie inverter. Thereafter, a suitable module-based distributed control architecture is introduced to independently utilize each converter module according to its characteristics. The proposed converter and control architecture are found to be flexible enough to integrate widely different batteries to an inverter dc link. Modeling, analysis, and experimental validation are performed on a single-phase modular hybrid battery energy storage system prototype to understand the operation of the control strategy with different hybrid battery configurations.

Design of multilevel amplitude regenerative system

We propose a scheme for multilevel (nine or more) amplitude regeneration based on a nonlinear optical loop mirror (NOLM) and demonstrate through numerical modeling its efficiency and cascadability on circular 16-, 64-, and 256- symbol constellations. We show that the amplitude noise is efficiently suppressed. The design is flexible and enables variation of the number of levels and their positioning. The scheme is compatible with phase regenerators. Also, compared to the traditional single-NOLM configuration scheme, new features, such as reduced and sign-varied power-dependent phase shift, are available. The model is simple to implement, as it requires only two couplers in addition to the traditional NOLM, and offers a vast range of optimization parameters. © 2014 Optical Society of America.

Electronic Education in the Field of Electrical Engineering Disciplines. Combined Didactic Interactive Program System

At present in the educational process of electrical engineering disciplines electronic learning program, providing control over reproductive educational-cognitive activity (the decision of standard problems) and universal modeling program systems, for instance Electronics Workbench, giving a chance of organizing productive, in particular research activity are basically used. However universal modeling program systems can not provide auto control over educational-cognitive activity because of the absence of the feedback with students. The combined didactic interactive program system, providing the closed directed auto control over both the reproductive and productive heuristic educational-cognitive activity of the student is offered.

An Intelligent System for Investigations and Provision of Safety for Complex Constructions

Methodology of computer-aided investigation and provision of safety for complex constructions and a prototype of the intelligent applied system, which implements it, are considered. The methodology is determined by the model of the object under scrutiny, by the structure and functions of investigation of safety as well as by a set of research methods. The methods are based on the technologies of object-oriented databases, expert systems and on the mathematical modeling. The intelligent system’s prototype represents component software, which provides for support of decision making in the process of safety investigations and investigation of the cause of failure. Support of decision making is executed by analogy, by determined search for the precedents (cases) with respect to predicted (on the stage of design) and observed (on the stage of exploitation) parameters of the damage, destruction and malfunction of a complex hazardous construction.