A frailty modeling approach for parental effects in animal breeding

Survival models involving frailties are commonly applied in studies where correlated event time data arise due to natural or artificial clustering. In this paper we present an application of such models in the animal breeding field. Specifically, a mixed survival model with a multivariate correlated frailty term is proposed for the analysis of data from over 3611 Brazilian Nellore cattle. The primary aim is to evaluate parental genetic effects on the trait length in days that their progeny need to gain a commercially specified standard weight gain. This trait is not measured directly but can be estimated from growth data. Results point to the importance of genetic effects and suggest that these models constitute a valuable data analysis tool for beef cattle breeding.

Different Approaches for Modeling Grouped Survival Data: A Mango Tree Study

Interval-censored survival data, in which the event of interest is not observed exactly but is only known to occur within some time interval, occur very frequently. In some situations, event times might be censored into different, possibly overlapping intervals of variable widths; however, in other situations, information is available for all units at the same observed visit time. In the latter cases, interval-censored data are termed grouped survival data. Here we present alternative approaches for analyzing interval-censored data. We illustrate these techniques using a survival data set involving mango tree lifetimes. This study is an example of grouped survival data.

A generalized modified Weibull distribution for lifetime modeling

A four parameter generalization of the Weibull distribution capable of modeling a bathtub-shaped hazard rate function is defined and studied. The beauty and importance of this distribution lies in its ability to model monotone as well as non-monotone failure rates, which are quite common in lifetime problems and reliability. The new distribution has a number of well-known lifetime special sub-models, such as the Weibull, extreme value, exponentiated Weibull, generalized Rayleigh and modified Weibull distributions, among others. We derive two infinite sum representations for its moments. The density of the order statistics is obtained. The method of maximum likelihood is used for estimating the model parameters. Also, the observed information matrix is obtained. Two applications are presented to illustrate the proposed distribution. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sugar and ethanol production as a rural development strategy in Brazil: Evidence from the state of Sao Paulo

Sugar and ethanol production are key components of Brazil`s rural development and energy strategies, yet in recent years sugar production has been widely criticized for its environmental and labor practices. This study examines the relationship between rural development and sugarcane, ethanol, and cattle production in the state of Sao Paulo. Our results suggest that the value added components of sugarcane production, which include sugar refining and ethanol production, may have a strong positive affect on local human development in comparison to primary agricultural production activities and other land uses. These results imply that sugar production, when accompanied by a local processing industry can stimulate rural development. However, this paper also highlights the significant environmental and social harms generated by the sugar industry at large, which may undermine its development benefits if not addressed. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of sugarcane varieties on the development of Mahanarva fimbriolata (Hemiptera: Cercopidae)

The sugarcane spittlebug, Mahanarva fimbriolata (Hemiptera: Cercopidae), is considered the most important pest of sugarcane harvested without the burning of trash, or green cane, in Brazil. The objective of this work was to compare the biology of M. fimbriolata on six sugarcane varieties: SP79-1011, SP80-1816, SP80-1842, SP81-3250, RB72454, and RB835486. The experiments were conducted at a temperature of 25 +/- 1 degrees C, RH of 70 +/- 10%, and a photoperiod of 14:10 [L:D]. Variety RB72454 outperformed the rest, reducing the nymphal population that fed on its roots by 50%. With regard to adults, variety SP81-3250 allowed greater mean longevity of males (38 days) and females (51 days), greater mean oviposition period (46 days), and higher mean fecundity (1215 eggs/female); these parameters were statistically different from those obtained with other varieties. For the eggs, there was no significant effect of variety on developmental time or viability. Consequently, the variety SP81-3250 should be avoided in areas predisposed to the occurrence of M. fimbriolata.

Bioinsecticidal activity of Talisia esculenta reserve protein on growth and serine digestive enzymes during larval development of Anticarsia gemmatalis

Plants synthesize a variety of molecules to defend themselves against an attack by insects. Talisin is a reserve protein from Talisia esculenta seeds, the first to be characterized from the family Sapindaceae. In this study, the insecticidal activity of Talisin was tested by incorporating the reserve protein into an artificial diet fed to the velvetbean caterpillar Anticarsia gemmatalis, the major pest of soybean crops in Brazil. At 1.5% (w/w) of the dietary protein, Talisin affected larval growth, pupal weight, development and mortality, adult fertility and longevity, and produced malformations in pupae and adult insects. Talisin inhibited the trypsin-like activity of larval midgut homogenates. The trypsin activity in Talisin-fed larvae was sensitive to Talisin, indicating that no novel protease-resistant to Talisin was induced in Talisin-fed larvae. Affinity chromatography showed that Talisin bound to midgut proteinases of the insect A. gemmatalis, but was resistant to enzymatic digestion by these larval proteinases. The transformation of genes coding for this reserve protein could be useful for developing insect resistant crops. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pupal Development of Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae) and Diachasmimorpha longicaudata (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) at Different Moisture Values in Four Soil Types

This study aimed to evaluate adult emergence and duration of the pupal stage of the Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), and emergence of the fruit fly parasitoid, Diachasmimorpha longicaudata (Ashmead), under different moisture conditions in four soil types, using soil water matric potential Pupal stage duration in C capitata was influenced differently for males and females In females, only soil type affected pupal stage duration, which was longer in a clay soil In males, pupal stage duration was individually influenced by moisture and soil type, with a reduction in pupal stage duration in a heavy clay soil and in a sandy clay, with longer duration in the clay soil As allude potential decreased, duration of the pupal stage of C capitata males increased, regardless of soil type C capitata emergence was affected by moisture, regardless of soil type, and was higher in drier soils The emergence of D longicaudata adults was individually influenced by soil type and moisture factors, and the number of emerged D longicaudata adults was three times higher in sandy loam and lower in a heavy clay soil Always, the number of emerged adults was higher at higher moisture conditions C capitata and D longicaudata pupal development was affected by moisture and soil type, which may facilitate pest sampling and allow release areas for the parasitoid to be defined under field conditions.

Regulatory effects of an inhibitor from Plathymenia foliolosa seeds on the larval development of Anagasta kuehniella (Lepidoptera)

The Mediterranean flour moth, Anagasta kuehniella, is one of the most important insect pests of grains, reported worldwide, feeding on stored grains and products of rice, rye, corn and wheat. Plants synthesize a variety of molecules, including trypsin inhibitors, to defend themselves against attack by insects. In this study, a trypsin inhibitor (PFTI) was purified from Plathymenia foliolosa (Benth.) seeds and was tested for insect growth regulatory effect. The survival and mass of A. kuehniella larvae feeding on control seeds were about 82.7% and 5 ring, respectively, whereas survival on seeds containing 0.7% PFTI was about 56%, while a 66.1% reduction in the average mass of the larvae was observed. The results from dietary utilization experiments with A. kuehniella larvae showed a reduction in efficiency of conversion of ingested food and digested food, and an increase in approximate digestibility and metabolic cost. The level of trypsin was significantly decreased in larval midgut and increased in the feces of larvae reared on a diet containing 0.7% PFTI. Results indicate that PFTI possesses a toxic effect against A. kuehniella larvae. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of soybean proteinase inhibitors on development of the soil mite Scheloribates praeincisus (Acari : Oribatida)

Proteinase inhibitors (PI) are present in plant tissues, especially in seeds, and act as a defense mechanism against herbivores and pathogens. Serine PI from soybean such as Bowman-Birk (BBPI) and Kunitz have been used to enhance resistance of sugarcane varieties to the sugarcane borer Diatraea saccharalis (Fabricius) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), the major pest of this crop. The use of these genetically-modified plants (GM) expressing PI requires knowledge of its sustainability and environmental safety, determining the stability of the introduced characteristic and its effects on non-target organisms. The objective of this study was to evaluate direct effects of ingestion of semi-purified and purified soybean PI and GM sugarcane plants on the soil-dwelling mite Scheloribates praeincisus (Berlese) (Acari: Oribatida). This mite is abundant in agricultural soils and participates in the process of organic matter decomposition; for this reason it will be exposed to PI by feeding on GM plant debris. Eggs of S. praeincisus were isolated and after larvae emerged, immatures were fed milled sugarcane leaves added to semi-purified or purified PI (Kunitz and BBPI) or immatures were fed GM sugarcane varieties expressing Kunitz and BBPI type PI or the untransformed near isogenic parental line variety as a control. Developmental time (larva-adult) and survival of S. praeincisus was evaluated. Neither Kunitz nor BBPI affected S. praeincisus survival. On the other hand, ingestion of semi-purified and purified Kunitz inhibitor diminished duration of S. praeincisus immature stages. Ingestion of GM senescent leaves did not have an effect on S. praeincisus immature developmental time and survival, compared to ingestion of leaves from the isogenic parental plants. These results indicate that cultivation of these transgenic sugarcane plants is safe for the non-target species S. praeincisus.

PCJ River Basins` Water Availability Caused by Water Diversion Scenarios to Supply Metropolitan Areas of So Paulo

A dynamic systems simulation model of water resources was developed as a tool to help analyze alternatives to water resources management for the Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiai River Water Basins (RB-PCJ), and used to run six 50-year simulations from 2004 to 2054. The model estimates water supply and demand, as well as contamination load by several consumers. Six runs were performed using a constant mean precipitation value, changing water supply and demand and different volumes diverted from RB-PCJ to RB-Alto Tiet. For the Business as Usual scenario, the Sustainability Index went from 0.44 in 2004 to 0.20 by 2054. The Water Sustainability Index changed from 74% in 2004 to 131% by 2054. The Falkenmark Index changed from 1,403 m(3) person (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) in 2004 to 734 m(3) person (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) by 2054. We concluded that sanitation is one of the major problems for the PCJ River Basins.

Water Resources Assessment at Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiai River Basins: A Dynamic Systems Approach

The Piracicaba, Capivari, and Jundiai River Basins (RB-PCJ) are mainly located in the State of So Paulo, Brazil. Using a dynamics systems simulation model (WRM-PCJ) to assess water resources sustainability, five 50-year simulations were run. WRM-PCJ was developed as a tool to aid decision and policy makers on the RB-PCJ Watershed Committee. The model has 254 variables. The model was calibrated and validated using available information from the 80s. Falkenmark Water Stress Index went from 1,403 m(3) person (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) in 2004 to 734 m(3) P (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) in 2054, and Xu Sustainability Index from 0.44 to 0.20. In 2004, the Keller River Basin Development Phase was Conservation, and by 2054 was Augmentation. The three criteria used to evaluate water resources showed that the watershed is at crucial water resources management turning point. The WRM-PCJ performed well, and it proved to be an excellent tool for decision and policy makers at RB-PCJ.

Flow rate sprinkler development for site-specific irrigation

Due to the rapid depletion of water resources, water must be used more efficiently in agriculture to maintain current levels of yield in irrigated areas. The efficiency of irrigation systems can be increased by adjusting the amount of water applied to specific conditions of soil and crop, which may vary in a field. Taking into account spatial and temporal variability, it is evident that an equipment capable of providing different irrigation levels is necessary to meet the water requirement of the soil. This work aims to develop and evaluate a flow rate sprinkler to be used in center pivots or linear moving irrigation systems, with potential for utilization in irrigation scheduling. A prototype was developed by duplicating its calibrations, and discharge coefficient adjustment was carried out in the laboratory. To predict the flow rate, a successful model that represented the operation of the flow rate sprinkler was established. The calibration of the flow rate sprinkler prototype showed satisfactory statistical and technical results. Automation of the prototype was achieved by driving a step motor using communication from the parallel port of a microcomputer, which was controlled by a software developed for this purpose. The results were satisfactory and technically feasible.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Volatile organic compounds produced by Saccharomyces cerevisiae inhibit the in vitro development of Guignardia citricarpa, the causal agent of citrus black spot

Due to the low chemical control effectiveness of citrus black spot, caused by the fungus Guignardia citricarpa at postharvest, and to the search for alternative control methods, this study aimed to evaluate the in vitro effect of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), produced by yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, on G. citricarpa. It was observed that the yeast strains evaluated acted as antagonists by VOC production, whose maximum inhibitory capacity was as high as 87.2%. The presence of fermentable carbon sources in the medium was essential for the bioactive VOC production by the yeast. The analysis of VOCs produced in PDA medium by SPME-GC-MS indicated the presence of high quantities of alcohols as well as esters. An artificial VOC mixture prepared on the basis of the composition of the VOCs mimicked the inhibitory effects of the natural VOCs released by S. cerevisiae. Thus, the VOCs produced by the yeast or the artificial mixtures can be a promising control method for citrus black spot or others postharvest diseases.

Peach brown rot incidence related to pathogen infection at different stages of fruit development in an organic peach production system

Brown rot, caused by Monilinia fructicola, is the most widespread disease for organic peach production systems in Brazil. The objective of this study was to determine the favorable periods for latent infection by M. fructicola in organic systems. The field experiment was carried out during 2006, 2007 and 2008 using the cultivar Aurora. After thinning fruits were bagged using white paraffin bags, and the treatments were performed by removing the bags and exposing the fruit for four days to the natural infection during each of seven fruit stages from pit hardening to harvest. Throughout the entire growing season, the conidial density and the weather variables were measured and related to the disease incidence using multiple regression analyses. At the fourth day after harvest in each season, the cumulative disease incidence was assessed, and it ranged from 40 to 98%. The incidence of brown rot on fruit that were exposed during the embryo growing stage was lower than that of unbagged fruit throughout the entire season in 2006 and 2008. The relative humidity and the conidia density were significantly correlated to disease incidence. Based on our results, M. fructicola can infect peaches during any stage of fruit development, and control of the disease must be revised to account for organic peach production systems. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.