946 resultados para Modelagem Simulação


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Teve-se o objetivo de verificar a possível seleção de sementes de milho - arredondadas e achatadas - no processo de semeadura com disco perfurado horizontal, bem como as conseqüências na distribuição longitudinal. Os registros dos dados deram-se pela avaliação visual de duas pessoas, com contador manual, no final da esteira carpetada em movimento de 1,54 m s-1, com 4,60 m de perspectiva para avaliação. Assim, um sensor registrava o número de orifícios do disco horizontal que devia passar pelo tubo condutor, e os espaçamentos falhos e múltiplos eram computados por pessoas diferentes. Os espaçamentos aceitáveis foram obtidos pela subtração dos espaçamentos falhos e múltiplos do total contabilizado. A medição do comprimento e espessura das sementes foi realizada com auxílio de paquímetro. Não houve alterações significativas nas variáveis estudadas, até a passagem de 55 mil orifícios do disco horizontal pelo tubo condutor; portanto, não houve seleção de sementes de milho durante a simulação do processo de semeadura.

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This work aims at the implementation and adaptation of a computational model for the study of the Fischer-Tropsch reaction in a slurry bed reactor from synthesis gas (CO+H2) for the selective production of hydrocarbons (CnHm), with emphasis on evaluation of the influence of operating conditions on the distribution of products formed during the reaction.The present model takes into account effects of rigorous phase equilibrium in a reactive flash drum, a detailed kinetic model able of predicting the formation of each chemical species of the reaction system, as well as control loops of the process variables for pressure and level of slurry phase. As a result, a system of Differential Algebraic Equations was solved using the computational code DASSL (Petzold, 1982). The consistent initialization for the problem was based on phase equilibrium formed by the existing components in the reactor. In addition, the index of the system was reduced to 1 by the introduction of control laws that govern the output of the reactor products. The results were compared qualitatively with experimental data collected in the Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis plant installed at Laboratório de Processamento de Gás - CTGÁS-ER-Natal/RN

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Crude oil is a complex liquid mixture of organic and inorganic compounds that are dominated by hydrocarbons. It is a mixture of alkanes from the simplest to more complex aromatic compounds that are present derivatives such as gasoline, diesel, alcohol, kerosene, naphtha, etc.. These derivatives are extracted from any oil, however, only with a very high quality, in other words, when the content of hydrocarbons of low molecular weight is high means that production of these compounds is feasible. The American Petroleum Institute (API) developed a classification system for the various types of oil. In Brazil, the quality of most of the oil taken from wells is very low, so it is necessary to generate new technology to develop best practices for refining in order to produce petroleum products of higher commercial value. Therefore, it is necessary to study the thermodynamic equilibrium properties of its derivative compounds of interest. This dissertation aims to determine vapor-liquid equilibrium (VLE) data for the systems Phenilcyclohexane - CO2, and Cyclohexane - Phenilcyclohexane - CO2 at high pressure and temperatures between 30 to 70oC. Furthermore, comparisons between measured VLE experimental data from this work and from the literature in relation to the Peng- Robinson molecular thermodynamic model, using a simulation program SPECS IVCSEP v5.60 and two adjustable interaction parameters, have been performed for modeling and simulation purposes. Finally, the developed apparatus for determination of phase equilibrium data at high pressures is presented

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The treatment of oil produced water and its implications are continually under investigation and several questions are related to this subject. In the Northeast Region Brazil, the onshore reservoirs are, in its majority, mature oil fields with high production of water. As this oil produced water has high levels of oil, it cannot be directly discarded into the environment because it represents a risk for contamination of soil, water, and groundwater, or even may cause harm to living bodies. Currently, polyelectrolytes that promote the coalescence of the oil droplets are used to remove the dispersed oil phase, enhancing the effectiveness of the flotation process. The non-biodegradability and high cost of polyelectrolytes are limiting factors for its application. On this context, it is necessary to develop studies for the search of more environmentally friendly products to apply in the flotation process. In this work it is proposed the modeling of the flotation process, in a glass column, using surfactants derived from vegetal oils to replace the polyelectrolytes, as well as to obtain a model that represents the experimental data. In addition, it was made a comparative study between the models described in the literature and the one developed in this research. The obtained results showed that the developed model presented high correlation coefficients when fitting the experimental data (R2 > 0.98), thus proving its efficiency in modeling the experimental data.

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The oil industry, experiencing a great economic and environmental impact, has increasingly invested in researches aiming a more satisfactory treatment of its largest effluent, i.e., produced water. These are mostly discarded at sea, without reuse and after a basic treatment. Such effluent contains a range of organic compounds with high toxicity and are difficult to remove, such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, salts, heavy metals, etc.. The main objective of this work was to study the solar distillation of produced water pre-treated to remove salts and other contaminants trough of a hybrid system with a pre-heater. This developed apparatus was called solar system, which consists of a solar heater and a conventional distillation solar still. The first device consisted of a water tank, a solar flat plate collector and a thermal reservoir. The solar distillator is of simple effect, with 1m2 of flat area and 20° of inclination. This dissertation was divided in five steps: measurements in the solar system, i.e. temperatures and distillate flow rate and weather data; modeling and simulation of the system; study of vapor-liquid equilibrium of the synthetic wastewater by the aqueous solution of p-xylene; physical and chemical analyses of samples of the feed, distillate and residue, as well as climatology pertinent variables of Natal-RN. The solar system was tested separately, with the supply water, aqueous NaCl and synthetic oil produced water. Temperature measurements were taken every minute of the thermal reservoir, water tank and distillator (liquid and vapor phases). Data of solar radiation and rainfall were obtained from INPE (National Institute for Space Research). The solar pre-heater demonstrated to be effective for the liquid systems tested. The reservoir fluid had an average temperature of 58°C, which enabled the feed to be pre-heated in the distillator. The temperature profile in the solar distillator showed a similar behavior to daily solar radiation, with temperatures near 70°C. The distillation had an average yield of 2.4 L /day, i.e., an efficiency of 27.2%. Mathematical modeling aided the identification of the most important variables and parameters in the solar system. The study of the vapor-liquid equilibrium from Total Organic Carbon (TOC) analysis indicated heteroazeotropia and the vapor phase resulted more concentrated in p-xylene. The physical-chemical analysis of pH, conductivity, Total Dissolved Solids (TDS), chlorides, cations (including heavy metals) and anions, the effluent distillate showed satisfactory results, which presents a potential for reuse. The climatological study indicates the region of Natal-RN as favorable to the operation of solar systems, but the use of auxiliary heating during periods of higher rainfall and cloud cover is also recommended

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The composition of petroleum may change from well to well and its resulting characteristics influence significantly the refine products. Therefore, it is important to characterize the oil in order to know its properties and send it adequately for processing. Since petroleum is a multicomponent mixture, the use of synthetic mixtures that are representative of oil fractions provides a better understand of the real mixture behavior. One way for characterization is usually obtained through correlation of physico-chemical properties of easy measurement, such as density, specific gravity, viscosity, and refractive index. In this work new measurements were obtained for density, specific gravity, viscosity, and refractive index of the following binary mixtures: n-heptane + hexadecane, cyclohexane + hexadecane, and benzene + hexadecane. These measurements were accomplished at low pressure and temperatures in the range 288.15 K to 310.95 K. These data were applied in the development of a new method of oil characterization. Furthermore, a series of measurements of density at high pressure and temperature of the binary mixture cyclohexane + n-hexadecane were performed. The ranges of pressure and temperature were 6.895 to 62.053 MPa and 318.15 to 413.15 K, respectively. Based on these experimental data of compressed liquid mixtures, a thermodynamic modeling was proposed using the Peng-Robinson equation of state (EOS). The EOS was modified with scaling of volume and a relatively reduced number of parameters were employed. The results were satisfactory demonstrating accuracy not only for density data, but also for isobaric thermal expansion and isothermal compressibility coefficients. This thesis aims to contribute in a scientific manner to the technological problem of refining heavy fractions of oil. This problem was treated in two steps, i.e., characterization and search of the processes that can produce streams with economical interest, such as solvent extraction at high pressure and temperature. In order to determine phase equilibrium data in these conditions, conceptual projects of two new experimental apparatus were developed. These devices consist of cells of variable volume together with a analytical static device. Therefore, this thesis contributed with the subject of characterization of hydrocarbons mixtures and with development of equilibrium cells operating at high pressure and temperature. These contributions are focused on the technological problem of refining heavy oil fractions

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In this study were projected, built and tested an electric solar dryer consisting of a solar collector, a drying chamber, an exhaust fan and a fan to promote forced hot air convection. Banana drying experiments were also carried out in a static column dryer to model the drying and to obtain parameters that can be used as a first approximation in the modeling of an electric solar dryer, depending on the similarity of the experimental conditions between the two drying systems. From the banana drying experiments conducted in the static column dryer, we obtained food weight data as a function of aqueous concentration and temperature. Simplified mathematical models of the banana drying were made, based on Fick s and Fourier s second equations, which were tested with the experimental data. We determined and/or modeled parameters such as banana moisture content, density, thin layer drying curves, equilibrium moisture content, molecular diffusivity of the water in banana DAB, external mass transfer coefficient kM, specific heat Cp, thermal conductivity k, latent heat of water evaporation in the food Lfood, time to heat food, and minimum energy and power required to heat the food and evaporate the water. When we considered the shrinkage of radius R of a banana, the calculated values of DAB and kM generally better represent the phenomenon of water diffusion in a solid. The latent heat of water evaporation in the food Lfood calculated by modeling is higher than the latent heat of pure water evaporation Lwater. The values calculated for DAB and KM that best represent the drying were obtained with the analytical model of the present paper. These values had good agreement with those assessed with a numeric model described in the literature, in which convective boundary condition and food shrinkage are considered. Using parameters such as Cp, DAB, k, kM and Lfood, one can elaborate the preliminary dryer project and calculate the economy using only solar energy rather than using solar energy along with electrical energy

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Natural gas, although basically composed by light hydrocarbons, also presents contaminant gases in its composition, such as CO2 (carbon dioxide) and H2S (hydrogen sulfide). The H2S, which commonly occurs in oil and gas exploration and production activities, causes damages in oil and natural gas pipelines. Consequently, the removal of hydrogen sulfide gas will result in an important reduction in operating costs. Also, it is essential to consider the better quality of the oil to be processed in the refinery, thus resulting in benefits in economic, environmental and social areas. All this facts demonstrate the need for the development and improvement in hydrogen sulfide scavengers. Currently, the oil industry uses several processes for hydrogen sulfide removal from natural gas. However, these processes produce amine derivatives which can cause damage in distillation towers, can cause clogging of pipelines by formation of insoluble precipitates, and also produce residues with great environmental impact. Therefore, it is of great importance the obtaining of a stable system, in inorganic or organic reaction media, able to remove hydrogen sulfide without formation of by-products that can affect the quality and cost of natural gas processing, transport, and distribution steps. Seeking the study, evaluation and modeling of mass transfer and kinetics of hydrogen removal, in this study it was used an absorption column packed with Raschig rings, where the natural gas, with H2S as contaminant, passed through an aqueous solution of inorganic compounds as stagnant liquid, being this contaminant gas absorbed by the liquid phase. This absorption column was coupled with a H2S detection system, with interface with a computer. The data and the model equations were solved by the least squares method, modified by Levemberg-Marquardt. In this study, in addition to the water, it were used the following solutions: sodium hydroxide, potassium permanganate, ferric chloride, copper sulfate, zinc chloride, potassium chromate, and manganese sulfate, all at low concentrations (»10 ppm). These solutions were used looking for the evaluation of the interference between absorption physical and chemical parameters, or even to get a better mass transfer coefficient, as in mixing reactors and absorption columns operating in counterflow. In this context, the evaluation of H2S removal arises as a valuable procedure for the treatment of natural gas and destination of process by-products. The study of the obtained absorption curves makes possible to determine the mass transfer predominant stage in the involved processes, the mass transfer volumetric coefficients, and the equilibrium concentrations. It was also performed a kinetic study. The obtained results showed that the H2S removal kinetics is greater for NaOH. Considering that the study was performed at low concentrations of chemical reagents, it was possible to check the effect of secondary reactions in the other chemicals, especially in the case of KMnO4, which shows that your by-product, MnO2, acts in H2S absorption process. In addition, CuSO4 and FeCl3 also demonstrated to have good efficiency in H2S removal

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The nonionic surfactants when in aqueous solution, have the property of separating into two phases, one called diluted phase, with low concentration of surfactant, and the other one rich in surfactants called coacervate. The application of this kind of surfactant in extraction processes from aqueous solutions has been increasing over time, which implies the need for knowledge of the thermodynamic properties of these surfactants. In this study were determined the cloud point of polyethoxylated surfactants from nonilphenolpolietoxylated family (9,5 , 10 , 11, 12 and 13), the family from octilphenolpolietoxylated (10 e 11) and polyethoxylated lauryl alcohol (6 , 7, 8 and 9) varying the degree of ethoxylation. The method used to determine the cloud point was the observation of the turbidity of the solution heating to a ramp of 0.1 ° C / minute and for the pressure studies was used a cell high-pressure maximum ( 300 bar). Through the experimental data of the studied surfactants were used to the Flory - Huggins models, UNIQUAC and NRTL to describe the curves of cloud point, and it was studied the influence of NaCl concentration and pressure of the systems in the cloud point. This last parameter is important for the processes of oil recovery in which surfactant in solution are used in high pressures. While the effect of NaCl allows obtaining cloud points for temperatures closer to the room temperature, it is possible to use in processes without temperature control. The numerical method used to adjust the parameters was the Levenberg - Marquardt. For the model Flory- Huggins parameter settings were determined as enthalpy of the mixing, mixing entropy and the number of aggregations. For the UNIQUAC and NRTL models were adjusted interaction parameters aij using a quadratic dependence with temperature. The parameters obtained had good adjust to the experimental data RSMD < 0.3 %. The results showed that both, ethoxylation degree and pressure increase the cloudy points, whereas the NaCl decrease

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Eutrophication has been listed as one of the main problems of water pollution on a global level. In the Brazilian semi-arid areas this problem takes even greater proportions due to characteristical water scarcity of the region. It is extremely important to the predictive eutrophication models development and to the reservoirs management in the semi-arid region, studies that promotes understanding of the mechanisms responsible for the expansion and control of algae blooms, essential for improving the water quality of these environments. The present study had as its main aims, evaluate the temporal pattern of trophic state, considering the influence of nutrients (N and P) and the light availability in the water column in the development of phytoplankton biomass, and perform the mathematical modelling of changes in phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations in the Cruzeta man-made lake located on Seridó, a typical semi-arid region of Rio Grande do Norte. To this, a fortnightly monitoring was performed in the reservoir in 05 stations over the months of March 2007 to May 2008. Were measured the concentrations of total phosphorus, total organic nitrogen, chlorophyll a, total, fixed and volatile suspended solids, as well as the measure of transparency (Secchi) and the profiles of photosynthetic active radiation (PAR), temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen and electrical conductivity in the water column. Measurements of vertical profiles have shown some periods of chemical and thermal stratification, especially in the rainy season, due to increased water column depth, however, the reservoir can be classified as warm polimitic. During the study period the reservoir was characterized as eutrophic considering the concentrations of phosphorus and most of the time as mesotrophic, based on the concentrations of chlorophyll a, according to the Thornton & Rast (1993) classification. The N:P relations suggest N limitation, conversely, significant linear relationship between the algae biomass and nutrients (N and P) were not observed in our study. However, a relevant event was the negative and significant correlation presented by Kt and chlorophyll a (r ² = 0.83) at the end of the drought of 2007 and the rainy season of 2008, and the algal biomass collapse observed at the end of the drought season (Dec/07). The equation used to simulate the change in the total phosphorus was not satisfactory, being necessary inclusion of parameters able to increase the power of the model prediction. The chlorophyll a simulation presented a good adjustment trend, however there is a need to check the calibrated model parameters and subsequent equation validation

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Digital Elevation Models (DEM) are numerical representations of a portion of the earth surface. Among several factors which affect the quality of a DEM, it should be emphasized the attention on the input data and the choice of the interpolating algorithm. On the other hand, several numerical models are used nowadays to characterize nearshore hydrodynamics and morphological changes in coastal areas, whose validation is based on field data collection. Independent on the complexity of the physical processes which are modeled, little attention has been given to the intrinsic bathymetric interpolation built within the numerical models of the specific application. Therefore, this study aims to investigate and to quantify the influence of the bathymetry, as obtained by a DEM, on the hydrodynamic circulation model at a coastal stretch, off the coast of the State of Rio Grande do Norte, Northeast Brazil. This coastal region is characterized by strong hydrodynamic and littoral processes, resulting in a very dynamic morphology with shallow coastal bathymetry. Important economic activities, such as oil exploitation and production, fisheries, salt ponds, shrimp farms and tourism, also bring impacts upon the local ecosystems and influence themselves the local hydrodynamics. This fact makes the region one of the most important for the development of the State, but also enhances the possibility of serious environmental accidents. As a hydrodynamic model, SisBaHiA® - Environmental Hydrodynamics System ( Sistema Básico de Hidrodinâmica Ambiental ) was chosen, for it has been successfully employed at several locations along the Brazilian coast. This model was developed at the Coastal and Oceanographical Engineering Group of the Ocean Engineering Program at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. Several interpolating methods were tested for the construction of the DEM, namely Natural Neighbor, Kriging, Triangulation with Linear Interpolation, Inverse Distance to a Power, Nearest Neighbor, and Minimum Curvature, all implemented within the software Surfer®. The bathymetry which was used as reference for the DEM was obtained from nautical charts provided by the Brazilian Hydrographic Service of the Brazilian Navy and from a field survey conducted in 2005. Changes in flow velocity and free surface elevation were evaluated under three aspects: a spatial vision along three profiles perpendicular to the coast and one profile longitudinal to the coast as shown; a temporal vision from three central nodes of the grid during 30 days; a hodograph analysis of components of speed in U and V, by different tidal cycles. Small, but negligible, variations in sea surface elevation were identified. However, the differences in flow and direction of velocities were significant, depending on the DEM

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Urban stormwater can be considered as potential water resources as well as problems for the proper functioning of the manifold activities of the city, resulting from inappropriate use and occupation of the soil, usually due to poor planning of the occupation of the development areas, with little care for the environmental aspects of the drainage of surface runoff. As a basic premise, we must seek mechanisms to preserve the natural flow in all stages of development of an urban area, preserving the soil infiltration capacity in the scale of the urban area, comprising the mechanisms of natural drainage, and noting preserving natural areas of dynamic water courses, both in the main channel and in the secondary. They are challenges for a sustainable urban development in a harmonious coexistence of modern developmental, which are consistent with the authoritative economic environmental and social quality. Integrated studies involving the quantity and quality of rainwater are absolutely necessary to achieve understanding and obtaining appropriate technologies, involving both aspects of the drainage problems and aspects of use of water when subjected to an adequate management of surface runoff , for example, the accumulation of these reservoirs in detention with the possibility of use for other purposes. The purpose of this study aims to develop a computer model, adjusted to prevailing conditions of an experimental urban watershed in order to enable the implementation of management practices for water resources, hydrological simulations of quantity and, in a preliminary way, the quality of stormwater that flow to a pond located at the downstream end of the basin. To this end, we used in parallel with the distributed model SWMM data raised the basin with the highest possible resolution to allow the simulation of diffuse loads, heterogeneous characteristics of the basin both in terms of hydrological and hydraulic parameters on the use and occupation soil. The parallel work should improve the degree of understanding of the phenomena simulated in the basin as well as the activity of the calibration models, and this is supported by monitoring data acquired during the duration of the project MAPLU (Urban Stormwater Management) belonging to the network PROSAB (Research Program in Basic Sanitation) in the years 2006 to 2008

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The management of water resources in the river basin level, as it defines the Law nº 9433/97, requires the effective knowledge of the processes of hydrological basin, resulting from studies based on consistent series of hydrological data that reflect the characteristics of the basin. In this context, the objective of this work was to develop the modeling of catchment basin of the river Jundiaí - RN and carry out the study of attenuation of a flood of the dam Tabatinga, by means of a monitoring project of hydrological data and climatology of the basin, with a view to promoting the development of research activities by applying methodologies unified and appropriate for the assessment of hydrological studies in the transition region of the semiarid and the forest zone on the coast of Rio Grande do Norte. For the study of the hydrological characteristics of the basin was conducted the automatic design of the basin of the river Jundiaí, with the aid of programs of geoprocessing, was adopted a hydrological model daily, the NRCS, which is a model determined and concentrated. For the use of this model was necessary to determine some parameters that are used in this model, as the Curve Number. Having in mind that this is the first study that is being conducted in the basin with the employment of this model, it was made sensitivity analysis of the results of this model from the adoption of different values of CN, situated within a range appropriate to the conditions of use, occupation and the nature of the soil of this basin. As the objective of this study was also developing a simulation model of the operation of the Tabatinga dam and with this flood control caused in the city of Macaíba, it was developed a mathematical model of fluid balance, developed to be used in Microsoft Excel. The simulation was conducted in two phases: the first step was promoted the water balance daily that allowed the analysis of the sensitivity of the model in relation to the volume of waiting, as well as the determination of the period of greatest discharges daily averages. From this point, it was assumed for the second stage, which was in the determination of the hydrograph of discharges effluent slots, that was determined by means of the fluid balance time, on the basis of the discharges effluents generated by a mathematical equation whose parameters were adjusted according to the hydrograph daily. Through the analyzes it was realized that the dam Tabatinga only has how to carry out the attenuation of floods through the regularization of the volume of waiting, with this there is a loss of approximately 56.5% on storage capacity of this dam, because for causing the attenuation effect of filled the shell of this dam has to remain more than 5m below the level of the sill, representing at least 50.582.927m3. The results obtained with the modeling represents a first step in the direction of improving the level of hydrological information about the behavior of the basins of the semiarid. In order to monitor quantitatively the hydrographic basin of the river Jundiaí will be necessary to install a rain gauge register, next to the Tabatinga dam and a pressure transducer, for regular measurements of flow in the reservoir of the dam. The climatological data will be collected in full automatic weather station installed in Agricultural School Jundiaí

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The simulation of SES-Natal Ponta Negra: mitigation of environmental risks and predictive maintenance strategy was developed in the context of several operational irregularities in the pumping stations and sewage systems in the system Ponta Negra. Thus, the environmental risks and complaints against the company due to overflows of sewage into the public thoroughfare became common. This neighborhood has shown in recent years an increase of resident higher than the initial expectation of growth. In this sense presumed the large population growth and generation of sewers higher than expected, associated to the use of corrective maintenance and misuse of the system may be the main causes of operational failures occurring in the SES. This study aimed at analyzing the hydraulic behavior of SES Ponta Negrathrough numerical simulation of its operation associated to future scenarios of occupation. The SES Ponta Negra has a long lengthof collection networks and 6 pumping stations interconnected, being EE 1, 2, 4 coastal way, and beach Shopping interconnected EE3 to receives all sewers pumped from the rest pumping station and pumped to the sewage treatment station of neighborhood which consists of a facultative pond followed by three maturation ponds with disposal of treated effluent into infiltration ditches. Oncethey are connected with each other, the study was conducted considering the days and times of higher inflow for all lifts. Furthermore, with the aim of measuring the gatherer network failures were conducted data survey of on the networks. Thephysical and operational survey data was conducted between January/2011 and janeiro/2012. The simulation of the SES was developed with the aim ofdemonstrating its functioning, eithercurrently and in the coming years, based in population estimates and sewage flow. The collected data represents the current framework of the pumping stations of the SES Ponta Negra and served as input to the model developed in MS Excel ® spreadsheet which allowed simulating the behavior of SES in future scenarios. The results of this study show thatBeach Shopping Pumping Station is actually undersized and presents serious functioning problemsthatmay compromise the environmental quality of surrounding area. The other pumping stations of the system will reach itsmaximum capacity between 2013 and 2015, although the EE1 and EE3 demonstrateoperation capacity, even precariously, until 2017. Moreover, it was observed that the misuse of the network system, due to the input of both garbage and stormwater, are major factors of failures that occur in the SES. Finally, it was found that the corrective maintenance appliance, rather than predictive,has proven to beinefficient because of the serious failuresin the system, causing damage to the environment and health risks to users

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The Pitimbu River Watershed (PRW), belonging to Potiguar capital metropolitan area, State of Rio Grande do Norte, contributes, among other purposes, to human using and animal watering. This watershed is extremely important because, besides filling up with freshwater approximately 30% of the south part of Natal (South, East and West Zones), contributes to the river shore ecosystem equilibrium. Face to the current conjuncture, this study aims to evaluate the urban development dynamics in the PRW, applying Cellular Automata as a modeling instrument, and to simulate future urban scenarios, between 2014 and 2033, using the simulation program SLEUTH. In the calibration phase, urban spots for 1 984, 1992, 2004 and 2013 years were used, with resolution from 100 meters. After the simulation, it was found a predominance of organic growth, expanding the BHRP from existing urban centers. The spontaneous growth occurred through the fullest extent of the watershed, however the probability of effective growth should not exceed 21%. It was observed that, there was a 68% increase for the period between 2014 and 2033, corresponding to an expansion area of 1,778 ha. For 2033, the source of Pitimbu River area and the Jiqui Lake surroundings will increase more than 78%. Finally, it was seen an exogenous urban growth tendency in the watershed (outside-in). As a result of this growth, hydraulics resources will become scarcer