Collective decision making in a heterogeneous environment: Lasius niger colonies preferentially forage at easy to learn locations

Many ants forage in complex environments and use a combination of trail pheromone information and route memory to navigate between food sources and the nest. Previous research has shown that foraging routes differ in how easily they are learned. In particular, it is easier to learn feeding locations that are reached by repeating (e.g. left-left or right-right) than alternating choices (left-right or right-left) along a route with two T-bifurcations. This raises the hypothesis that the learnability of the feeding sites may influence overall colony foraging patterns. We studied this in the mass-recruiting ant Lasius niger. We used mazes with two T-bifurcations, and allowed colonies to exploit two equidistant food sources that differed in how easily their locations were learned. In experiment 1, learnability was manipulated by using repeating versus alternating routes from nest to feeder. In experiment 2, we added visual landmarks along the route to one food source. Our results suggest that colonies preferentially exploited the feeding site that was easier to learn. This was the case even if the more difficult to learn feeding site was discovered first. Furthermore, we show that these preferences were at least partly caused by lower error rates (experiment 1) and greater foraging speeds (experiment 2) of foragers visiting the more easily learned feeder locations. Our results indicate that the learnability of feeding sites is an important factor influencing collective foraging patterns of ant colonies under more natural conditions, given that in natural environments foragers often face multiple bifurcations on their way to food sources.

Training primary care physicians in shared decision making for colorectal cancer screening : Insights from the first statewide colorectal cancer screening program in Switzerland

Background: The State of Vaud has launched the first population-based, organized, colorectal cancer screening program in Switzerland for the population aged 50 to 69. Each primary care physician (PCP) has been invited to participate in an interactive session preparing them to enroll patients in the screening program. We aimed at testing the impact of an interactive seminar for PCPs on their intention to discuss the options of no screening, screening with the fecal-immunological test (FIT) and colonoscopy. We measured attitude, intentions and knowledge through questionnaires filled by PCPs before and after a 2.5 hour-long interactive seminar. The main outcome was the proportion of physicians foreseeing to offer coloscopy vs FIT on an equal basis. Physicians estimated the proportion of their patients prescribed a fecal occult blood test (FOBT) vs coloscopy over the months before the seminar and after the interactive seminar. We used a clinical vignette to test for knowledge about screening indications. The interactive seminar included powerpoint presentations with quizzes and clickers, an 8-minute video presenting a shared decision making (SDM) consultation around CRC screening and distribution of educational materials such as a SDM decision aid and background epidemiological information.

A method for decision making with the OWA operator

A new method for decision making that uses the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator in the aggregation of the information is presented. It is used a concept that it is known in the literature as the index of maximum and minimum level (IMAM). This index is based on distance measures and other techniques that are useful for decision making. By using the OWA operator in the IMAM, we form a new aggregation operator that we call the ordered weighted averaging index of maximum and minimum level (OWAIMAM) operator. The main advantage is that it provides a parameterized family of aggregation operators between the minimum and the maximum and a wide range of special cases. Then, the decision maker may take decisions according to his degree of optimism and considering ideals in the decision process. A further extension of this approach is presented by using hybrid averages and Choquet integrals. We also develop an application of the new approach in a multi-person decision-making problem regarding the selection of strategies.

Cooperation versus competition effects on information sharing and use in group decision making

Information processing in groups has long been seen as a cooperative process. In contrast with this assumption, group members were rarely found to behave cooperatively: They withhold unshared information and stick to initial incorrect decisions. In the present article, we examined how group members' cooperative and competitivemotives impact on group information processing and propose that information sharing and use in groups could be seen as strategic behavior. We reviewed the latest developments in the literature investigating different forms of strategic information processing and their underlying mechanisms. This review suggests that explicit cooperative goals are needed for effective group decision-making.

Regression-based techniques for statistical decision making in single-case designs

The present study evaluates the performance of four methods for estimating regression coefficients used to make statistical decisions regarding intervention effectiveness in single-case designs. Ordinary least squares estimation is compared to two correction techniques dealing with general trend and one eliminating autocorrelation whenever it is present. Type I error rates and statistical power are studied for experimental conditions defined by the presence or absence of treatment effect (change in level or in slope), general trend, and serial dependence. The results show that empirical Type I error rates do not approximate the nominal ones in presence of autocorrelation or general trend when ordinary and generalized least squares are applied. The techniques controlling trend show lower false alarm rates, but prove to be insufficiently sensitive to existing treatment effects. Consequently, the use of the statistical significance of the regression coefficients for detecting treatment effects is not recommended for short data series.

Assessing an Adolescent's Capacity for Autonomous Decision-Making in Clinical Care.

The purpose of this article is to provide policy guidance on how to assess the capacity of minor adolescents for autonomous decision-making without a third party authorization, in the field of clinical care. In June 2014, a two-day meeting gathered 20 professionals from all continents, working in the field of adolescent medicine, neurosciences, developmental and clinical psychology, sociology, ethics, and law. Formal presentations and discussions were based on a literature search and the participants' experience. The assessment of adolescent decision-making capacity includes the following: (1) a review of the legal context consistent with the principles of the Convention on the Rights of the Child; (2) an empathetic relationship between the adolescent and the health care professional/team; (3) the respect of the adolescent's developmental stage and capacities; (4) the inclusion, if relevant, of relatives, peers, teachers, or social and mental health providers with the adolescent's consent; (5) the control of coercion and other social forces that influence decision-making; and (6) a deliberative stepwise appraisal of the adolescent's decision-making process. This stepwise approach, already used among adults with psychiatric disorders, includes understanding the different facets of the given situation, reasoning on the involved issues, appreciating the outcomes linked with the decision(s), and expressing a choice. Contextual and psychosocial factors play pivotal roles in the assessment of adolescents' decision-making capacity. The evaluation must be guided by a well-established procedure, and health professionals should be trained accordingly. These proposals are the first to have been developed by a multicultural, multidisciplinary expert panel.

Does working memory training affect decision making ? : a neuroeconomic study

We all make decisions of varying levels of importance every day. Because making a decision implies that there are alternative choices to be considered, almost all decision involves some conflicts or dissatisfaction. Traditional economic models esteem that a person must weight the positive and negative outcomes of each option, and based on all these inferences, determines which option is the best for that particular situation. However, individuals rather act as irrational agents and tend to deviate from these rational choices. They somewhat evaluate the outcomes' subjective value, namely, when they face a risky choice leading to losses, people are inclined to have some preference for risk over certainty, while when facing a risky choice leading to gains, people often avoid to take risks and choose the most certain option. Yet, it is assumed that decision making is balanced between deliberative and emotional components. Distinct neural regions underpin these factors: the deliberative pathway that corresponds to executive functions, implies the activation of the prefrontal cortex, while the emotional pathway tends to activate the limbic system. These circuits appear to be altered in individuals with ADHD, and result, amongst others, in impaired decision making capacities. Their impulsive and inattentive behaviors are likely to be the cause of their irrational attitude towards risk taking. Still, a possible solution is to administrate these individuals a drug treatment, with the knowledge that it might have several side effects. However, an alternative treatment that relies on cognitive rehabilitation might be appropriate. This project was therefore aimed at investigate whether an intensive working memory training could have a spillover effect on decision making in adults with ADHD and in age-matched healthy controls. We designed a decision making task where the participants had to select an amount to gamble with the chance of 1/3 to win four times the chosen amount, while in the other cases they could loose their investment. Their performances were recorded using electroencephalography prior and after a one-month Dual N-Back training and the possible near and far transfer effects were investigated. Overall, we found that the performance during the gambling task was modulated by personality factors and by the importance of the symptoms at the pretest session. At posttest, we found that all individuals demonstrated an improvement on the Dual N-Back and on similar untrained dimensions. In addition, we discovered that not only the adults with ADHD showed a stable decrease of the symptomatology, as evaluated by the CAARS inventory, but this reduction was also detected in the control samples. In addition, Event-Related Potential (ERP) data are in favor of an change within prefrontal and parietal cortices. These results suggest that cognitive remediation can be effective in adults with ADHD, and in healthy controls. An important complement of this work would be the examination of the data in regard to the attentional networks, which could empower the fact that complex programs covering the remediation of several executive functions' dimensions is not required, a unique working memory training can be sufficient. -- Nous prenons tous chaque jour des décisions ayant des niveaux d'importance variables. Toutes les décisions ont une composante conflictuelle et d'insatisfaction, car prendre une décision implique qu'il y ait des choix alternatifs à considérer. Les modèles économiques traditionnels estiment qu'une personne doit peser les conséquences positives et négatives de chaque option et en se basant sur ces inférences, détermine quelle option est la meilleure dans une situation particulière. Cependant, les individus peuvent dévier de ces choix rationnels. Ils évaluent plutôt les valeur subjective des résultats, c'est-à-dire que lorsqu'ils sont face à un choix risqué pouvant les mener à des pertes, les gens ont tendance à avoir des préférences pour le risque à la place de la certitude, tandis que lorsqu'ils sont face à un choix risqué pouvant les conduire à un gain, ils évitent de prendre des risques et choisissent l'option la plus su^re. De nos jours, il est considéré que la prise de décision est balancée entre des composantes délibératives et émotionnelles. Ces facteurs sont sous-tendus par des régions neurales distinctes: le chemin délibératif, correspondant aux fonctions exécutives, implique l'activation du cortex préfrontal, tandis que le chemin émotionnel active le système limbique. Ces circuits semblent être dysfonctionnels chez les individus ayant un TDAH, et résulte, entre autres, en des capacités de prise de décision altérées. Leurs comportements impulsifs et inattentifs sont probablement la cause de ces attitudes irrationnelles face au risque. Cependant, une solution possible est de leur administrer un traitement médicamenteux, en prenant en compte les potentiels effets secondaires. Un traitement alternatif se reposant sur une réhabilitation cognitive pourrait être appropriée. Le but de ce projet est donc de déterminer si un entrainement intensif de la mémoire de travail peut avoir un effet sur la prise de décision chez des adultes ayant un TDAH et chez des contrôles sains du même âge. Nous avons conçu une tâche de prise de décision dans laquelle les participants devaient sélectionner un montant à jouer en ayant une chance sur trois de gagner quatre fois le montant choisi, alors que dans l'autre cas, ils pouvaient perdre leur investissement. Leurs performances ont été enregistrées en utilisant l'électroencéphalographie avant et après un entrainement d'un mois au Dual N-Back, et nous avons étudié les possibles effets de transfert. Dans l'ensemble, nous avons trouvé au pré-test que les performances au cours du jeu d'argent étaient modulées par les facteurs de personnalité, et par le degré des sympt^omes. Au post-test, nous avons non seulement trouvé que les adultes ayant un TDAH montraient une diminutions stable des symptômes, qui étaient évalués par le questionnaire du CAARS, mais que cette réduction était également perçue dans l'échantillon des contrôles. Les rsultats expérimentaux mesurés à l'aide de l'éléctroencéphalographie suggèrent un changement dans les cortex préfrontaux et pariétaux. Ces résultats suggèrent que la remédiation cognitive est efficace chez les adultes ayant un TDAH, mais produit aussi un effet chez les contrôles sains. Un complément important de ce travail pourrait examiner les données sur l'attention, qui pourraient renforcer l'idée qu'il n'est pas nécessaire d'utiliser des programmes complexes englobant la remédiation de plusieurs dimensions des fonctions exécutives, un simple entraiment de la mémoire de travail devrait suffire.

The influence of decision-maker effort and case complexity on appealed rulings subject to multi-categorical selection

This study extends the standard econometric treatment of appellate court outcomes by 1) considering the role of decision-maker effort and case complexity, and 2) adopting a multi-categorical selection process of appealed cases. We find evidence of appellate courts being affected by both the effort made by first-stage decision makers and case complexity. This illustrates the value of widening the narrowly defined focus on heterogeneity in individual-specific preferences that characterises many applied studies on legal decision-making. Further, the majority of appealed cases represent non-random sub-samples and the multi-categorical selection process appears to offer advantages over the more commonly used dichotomous selection models.

An ABC for decision making

The present study was aimed at proposing a systematic evaluation of cranial computed tomography, identifying the main aspects to be analyzed in order to facilitate the decision making process regarding diagnosis and management in emergency settings. The present descriptive study comprised a literature review at the following databases: Access Medicine and Access Emergency Medicine (McGraw- Hill Education); British Medical Journal Evidence Center; UptoDate; Bireme; PubMed; Lilacs; SciELO; ProQuest; Micromedex (Thomson Reuters); Embase. Once the literature review was completed, the authors identified the main diseases with tomographic repercussions and proposed the present system to evaluate cranial computed tomography images. An easy-to-memorize ABC system will facilitate the decision making in emergency settings, as it covers the main diseases encountered by intensivists and emergency physicians, and provides a sequential guidance about anatomical structures to be investigated as well as their respective alterations.

To analyse a trace or not? Evaluating the decision-making process in the criminal investigation

In order to broaden our knowledge and understanding of the decision steps in the criminal investigation process, we started by evaluating the decision to analyse a trace and the factors involved in this decision step. This decision step is embedded in the complete criminal investigation process, involving multiple decision and triaging steps. Considering robbery cases occurring in a geographic region during a 2-year-period, we have studied the factors influencing the decision to submit biological traces, directly sampled on the scene of the robbery or on collected objects, for analysis. The factors were categorised into five knowledge dimensions: strategic, immediate, physical, criminal and utility and decision tree analysis was carried out. Factors in each category played a role in the decision to analyse a biological trace. Interestingly, factors involving information available prior to the analysis are of importance, such as the fact that a positive result (a profile suitable for comparison) is already available in the case, or that a suspect has been identified through traditional police work before analysis. One factor that was taken into account, but was not significant, is the matrix of the trace. Hence, the decision to analyse a trace is not influenced by this variable. The decision to analyse a trace first is very complex and many of the tested variables were taken into account. The decisions are often made on a case-by-case basis.

Mobile Subscription Acquisition and Retention Costs - An Actvity-Based Model

The objective of this master’s thesis was to develop a model for mobile subscription acquisition cost, SAC, and mobile subscription retention cost, SRC, by applying activity-based cost accounting principles. The thesis was conducted as a case study for a telecommunication company operating on the Finnish telecommunication market. In addition to activity-based cost accounting there were other theories studied and applied in order to establish a theory framework for this thesis. The concepts of acquisition and retention were explored in a broader context with the concepts of customer satisfaction, loyalty and profitability and eventually customer relationship management to understand the background and meaning of the theme of this thesis. The utilization of SAC and SRC information is discussed through the theories of decision making and activity-based management. Also, the present state and future needs of SAC and SRC information usage at the case company as well as the functions of the company were examined by interviewing some members of the company personnel. With the help of these theories and methods it was aimed at finding out both the theory-based and practical factors which affect the structure of the model. During the thesis study it was confirmed that the existing SAC and SRC model of the case company should be used as the basis in developing the activity-based model. As a result the indirect costs of the old model were transformed into activities and the direct costs were continued to be allocated directly to acquisition of new subscriptions and retention of old subscriptions. The refined model will enable managing the subscription acquisition, retention and the related costs better through the activity information. During the interviews it was found out that the SAC and SRC information is also used in performance measurement and operational and strategic planning. SAC and SRC are not fully absorbed costs and it was concluded that the model serves best as a source of indicative cost information. This thesis does not include calculating costs. Instead, the refined model together with both the theory-based and interview findings concerning the utilization of the information produced by the model will serve as a framework for the possible future development aiming at completing the model.

A simulation model of the optimal maintenance strategy: conceptual agent-based approach

In this Master’s thesis agent-based modeling has been used to analyze maintenance strategy related phenomena. The main research question that has been answered was: what does the agent-based model made for this study tell us about how different maintenance strategy decisions affect profitability of equipment owners and maintenance service providers? Thus, the main outcome of this study is an analysis of how profitability can be increased in industrial maintenance context. To answer that question, first, a literature review of maintenance strategy, agent-based modeling and maintenance modeling and optimization was conducted. This review provided the basis for making the agent-based model. Making the model followed a standard simulation modeling procedure. With the simulation results from the agent-based model the research question was answered. Specifically, the results of the modeling and this study are: (1) optimizing the point in which a machine is maintained increases profitability for the owner of the machine and also the maintainer with certain conditions; (2) time-based pricing of maintenance services leads to a zero-sum game between the parties; (3) value-based pricing of maintenance services leads to a win-win game between the parties, if the owners of the machines share a substantial amount of their value to the maintainers; and (4) error in machine condition measurement is a critical parameter to optimizing maintenance strategy, and there is real systemic value in having more accurate machine condition measurement systems.

Budgeting decision-making in Finnish municipalities

This master’s thesis examines budgeting decision-making in Finnish municipalities; an issue that has not received a lot of attention in the academic literature. Furthermore, this thesis investigates whether the current budgeting decision-making practices could be improved by using a new kind of budget decision-making tool that is based on presenting multiple investment or divestment alternatives simultaneously to the decision makers as a frontier, rather than one by one. In the empirical part of the thesis, the results from three case interviews are introduced in order to answer the research questions of the study. The empirical evidence of this thesis suggests that there is a need for the presented budgeting decision-making tool in Finnish municipalities. The current routine is seen as good even though the interviewees would warmly welcome the alternative method that would function as a linkage be-tween strategy and the budget. The results also indicate that even though municipalities are left with a lot of room in their budgeting decision-making routine, the routine closely, though not always purposely, follows given guidelines and legislation. The major problem in the current practices seems to be the lack of understanding, as the decision-makers find it hard fully to understand the multiplicative effects of the budget-related decisions.

Business intelligence viewpoint on managerial decision-making : Ill-structured problems and decision support systems

Vaikka liiketoimintatiedon hallintaa sekä johdon päätöksentekoa on tutkittu laajasti, näiden kahden käsitteen yhteisvaikutuksesta on olemassa hyvin rajallinen määrä tutkimustietoa. Tulevaisuudessa aiheen tärkeys korostuu, sillä olemassa olevan datan määrä kasvaa jatkuvasti. Yritykset tarvitsevat jatkossa yhä enemmän kyvykkyyksiä sekä resursseja, jotta sekä strukturoitua että strukturoimatonta tietoa voidaan hyödyntää lähteestä riippumatta. Nykyiset Business Intelligence -ratkaisut mahdollistavat tehokkaan liiketoimintatiedon hallinnan osana johdon päätöksentekoa. Aiemman kirjallisuuden pohjalta, tutkimuksen empiirinen osuus tunnistaa liiketoimintatiedon hyödyntämiseen liittyviä tekijöitä, jotka joko tukevat tai rajoittavat johdon päätöksentekoprosessia. Tutkimuksen teoreettinen osuus johdattaa lukijan tutkimusaiheeseen kirjallisuuskatsauksen avulla. Keskeisimmät tutkimukseen liittyvät käsitteet, kuten Business Intelligence ja johdon päätöksenteko, esitetään relevantin kirjallisuuden avulla – tämän lisäksi myös dataan liittyvät käsitteet analysoidaan tarkasti. Tutkimuksen empiirinen osuus rakentuu tutkimusteorian pohjalta. Tutkimuksen empiirisessä osuudessa paneudutaan tutkimusteemoihin käytännön esimerkein: kolmen tapaustutkimuksen avulla tutkitaan sekä kuvataan toisistaan irrallisia tapauksia. Jokainen tapaus kuvataan sekä analysoidaan teoriaan perustuvien väitteiden avulla – nämä väitteet ovat perusedellytyksiä menestyksekkäälle liiketoimintatiedon hyödyntämiseen perustuvalle päätöksenteolle. Tapaustutkimusten avulla alkuperäistä tutkimusongelmaa voidaan analysoida tarkasti huomioiden jo olemassa oleva tutkimustieto. Analyysin tulosten avulla myös yksittäisiä rajoitteita sekä mahdollistavia tekijöitä voidaan analysoida. Tulokset osoittavat, että rajoitteilla on vahvasti negatiivinen vaikutus päätöksentekoprosessin onnistumiseen. Toisaalta yritysjohto on tietoinen liiketoimintatiedon hallintaan liittyvistä positiivisista seurauksista, vaikka kaikkia mahdollisuuksia ei olisikaan hyödynnetty. Tutkimuksen merkittävin tulos esittelee viitekehyksen, jonka puitteissa johdon päätöksentekoprosesseja voidaan arvioida sekä analysoida. Despite the fact that the literature on Business Intelligence and managerial decision-making is extensive, relatively little effort has been made to research the relationship between them. This particular field of study has become important since the amount of data in the world is growing every second. Companies require capabilities and resources in order to utilize structured data and unstructured data from internal and external data sources. However, the present Business Intelligence technologies enable managers to utilize data effectively in decision-making. Based on the prior literature, the empirical part of the thesis identifies the enablers and constraints in computer-aided managerial decision-making process. In this thesis, the theoretical part provides a preliminary understanding about the research area through a literature review. The key concepts such as Business Intelligence and managerial decision-making are explored by reviewing the relevant literature. Additionally, different data sources as well as data forms are analyzed in further detail. All key concepts are taken into account when the empirical part is carried out. The empirical part obtains an understanding of the real world situation when it comes to the themes that were covered in the theoretical part. Three selected case companies are analyzed through those statements, which are considered as critical prerequisites for successful computer-aided managerial decision-making. The case study analysis, which is a part of the empirical part, enables the researcher to examine the relationship between Business Intelligence and managerial decision-making. Based on the findings of the case study analysis, the researcher identifies the enablers and constraints through the case study interviews. The findings indicate that the constraints have a highly negative influence on the decision-making process. In addition, the managers are aware of the positive implications that Business Intelligence has for decision-making, but all possibilities are not yet utilized. As a main result of this study, a data-driven framework for managerial decision-making is introduced. This framework can be used when the managerial decision-making processes are evaluated and analyzed.

Fuzzy ontology for knowledge mobilisation and decision support

A growing concern for organisations is how they should deal with increasing amounts of collected data. With fierce competition and smaller margins, organisations that are able to fully realize the potential in the data they collect can gain an advantage over the competitors. It is almost impossible to avoid imprecision when processing large amounts of data. Still, many of the available information systems are not capable of handling imprecise data, even though it can offer various advantages. Expert knowledge stored as linguistic expressions is a good example of imprecise but valuable data, i.e. data that is hard to exactly pinpoint to a definitive value. There is an obvious concern among organisations on how this problem should be handled; finding new methods for processing and storing imprecise data are therefore a key issue. Additionally, it is equally important to show that tacit knowledge and imprecise data can be used with success, which encourages organisations to analyse their imprecise data. The objective of the research conducted was therefore to explore how fuzzy ontologies could facilitate the exploitation and mobilisation of tacit knowledge and imprecise data in organisational and operational decision making processes. The thesis introduces both practical and theoretical advances on how fuzzy logic, ontologies (fuzzy ontologies) and OWA operators can be utilized for different decision making problems. It is demonstrated how a fuzzy ontology can model tacit knowledge which was collected from wine connoisseurs. The approach can be generalised and applied also to other practically important problems, such as intrusion detection. Additionally, a fuzzy ontology is applied in a novel consensus model for group decision making. By combining the fuzzy ontology with Semantic Web affiliated techniques novel applications have been designed. These applications show how the mobilisation of knowledge can successfully utilize also imprecise data. An important part of decision making processes is undeniably aggregation, which in combination with a fuzzy ontology provides a promising basis for demonstrating the benefits that one can retrieve from handling imprecise data. The new aggregation operators defined in the thesis often provide new possibilities to handle imprecision and expert opinions. This is demonstrated through both theoretical examples and practical implementations. This thesis shows the benefits of utilizing all the available data one possess, including imprecise data. By combining the concept of fuzzy ontology with the Semantic Web movement, it aspires to show the corporate world and industry the benefits of embracing fuzzy ontologies and imprecision.