Predictive models for water sources with high susceptibility for bromine-containing disinfection by-product formation: Implications for water treatment

This study examines a matrix of synthetic water samples designed to include conditions that favour brominated disinfection by-product (Br-DBP) formation, in order to provide predictive models suitable for high Br-DBP forming waters such as salinity-impacted waters. Br-DBPs are known to be more toxic than their chlorinated analogues, in general, and their formation may be favoured by routine water treatment practices such as coagulation/flocculation under specific conditions; therefore, circumstances surrounding their formation must be understood. The chosen factors were bromide concentration, mineral alkalinity, bromide to dissolved organic carbon (Br/DOC) ratio and Suwannee River natural organic matter concentration. The relationships between these parameters and DBP formation were evaluated by response surface modelling of data generated using a face-centred central composite experimental design. Predictive models for ten brominated and/or chlorinated DBPs are presented, as well as models for total trihalomethanes (tTHMs) and total dihaloacetonitriles (tDHANs), and bromide substitution factors for the THMs and DHANs classes. The relationships described revealed that increasing alkalinity and increasing Br/DOC ratio were associated with increasing bromination of THMs and DHANs, suggesting that DOC lowering treatment methods that do not also remove bromide such as enhanced coagulation may create optimal conditions for Br-DBP formation in waters in which bromide is present.

A 2-hour diagnostic protocol for possible cardiac chest pain in the emergency department: A randomized clinical trial

IMPORTANCE Patients with chest pain represent a high health care burden, but it may be possible to identify a patient group with a low short-term risk of adverse cardiac events who are suitable for early discharge. OBJECTIVE To compare the effectiveness of a rapid diagnostic pathway with a standard-care diagnostic pathway for the assessment of patients with possible cardiac chest pain in a usual clinical practice setting. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A single-center, randomized parallel-group trial with blinded outcome assessments was conducted in an academic general and tertiary hospital. Participants included adults with acute chest pain consistent with acute coronary syndrome for whom the attending physician planned further observation and troponin testing. Patient recruitment occurred from October 11, 2010, to July 4, 2012, with a 30-day follow-up. INTERVENTIONS An experimental pathway using an accelerated diagnostic protocol (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction score, 0; electrocardiography; and 0- and 2-hour troponin tests) or a standard-care pathway (troponin test on arrival at hospital, prolonged observation, and a second troponin test 6-12 hours after onset of pain) serving as the control. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Discharge from the hospital within 6 hours without a major adverse cardiac event occurring within 30 days. RESULTS Fifty-two of 270 patients in the experimental group were successfully discharged within 6 hours compared with 30 of 272 patients in the control group (19.3% vs 11.0%; odds ratio, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.18-3.13; P = .008). It required 20 hours to discharge the same proportion of patients from the control group as achieved in the experimental group within 6 hours. In the experimental group, 35 additional patients (12.9%) were classified as low risk but admitted to an inpatient ward for cardiac investigation. None of the 35 patients received a diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome after inpatient evaluation. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Using the accelerated diagnostic protocol in the experimental pathway almost doubled the proportion of patients with chest pain discharged early. Clinicians could discharge approximately 1 of 5 patients with chest pain to outpatient follow-up monitoring in less than 6 hours. This diagnostic strategy could be easily replicated in other centers because no extra resources are required.

Life-course determinants of bone mass in young adults from a transitional rural community in India: The Andhra Pradesh Children and Parents Study (APCAPS)

Background: Undernutrition and physical inactivity are both associated with lower bone mass. Objective: This study aimed to investigate the combined effects of early-life undernutrition and urbanized lifestyles in later life on bone mass accrual in young adults from a rural community in India that is undergoing rapid socioeconomic development. Design: This was a prospective cohort study of participants of the Hyderabad Nutrition Trial (1987–1990), which offered balanced protein-calorie supplementation to pregnant women and preschool children younger than 6 y in the intervention villages. The 2009–2010 follow-up study collected data on current anthropometric measures, bone mineral density (BMD) measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, blood samples, diet, physical activity, and living standards of the trial participants (n = 1446, aged 18–23 y). Results: Participants were generally lean and had low BMD [mean hip BMD: 0.83 (women), 0.95 (men) g/cm2; lumbar spine: 0.86 (women), 0.93 (men) g/cm2]. In models adjusted for current risk factors, no strong evidence of a positive association was found between BMD and early-life supplementation. On the other hand, current lean mass and weight-bearing physical activity were positively associated with BMD. No strong evidence of an association was found between BMD and current serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D or dietary intake of calcium, protein, or calories. Conclusions: Current lean mass and weight-bearing physical activity were more important determinants of bone mass than was early-life undernutrition in this population. In transitional rural communities from low-income countries, promotion of physical activity may help to mitigate any potential adverse effects of early nutritional disadvantage.

The ovarian response to controlled stimulation in IVF cycles may be predictive of the age at menopause

STUDY QUESTION Can the number of oocytes retrieved in IVF cycles be predictive of the age at menopause? SUMMARY ANSWER The number of retrieved oocytes can be used as an indirect assessment of the extent of ovarian reserve to provide information on the duration of the reproductive life span in women of different ages. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Menopause is determined by the exhaustion of the ovarian follicular pool. Ovarian reserve is the main factor influencing ovarian response in IVF cycles. As a consequence the response to ovarian stimulation with the administration of gonadotrophins in IVF treatment may be informative about the age at menopause. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION In the present cross-sectional study, participants were 1585 infertile women from an IVF clinic and 2635 menopausal women from a more general population. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS For all infertile women, the response to ovarian stimulation with gonadotrophins was recorded. For menopausal women, relevant demographic characteristics were available for the analysis. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE A cubic function described the relationship between mean numbers of oocytes and age, with all terms being statistically significant. From the estimated residual distribution of the actual number of oocytes about this mean, a distribution of the age when there would be no oocytes retrieved following ovarian stimulation was derived. This was compared with the distribution of the age at menopause from the menopausal women, showing that menopause occurred about a year later. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION The retrieved oocyte data were from infertile women, while the menopausal ages were from a more general population. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS In the present study, we have shown some similarity between the distributions of the age when no retrieved oocytes can be expected after ovarian stimulation and the age at menopause. For a given age, the lower the ovarian reserve, the lower the number of retrieved oocytes would be and the earlier the age that menopause would occur.

Computed wall stress may predict the growth of abdominal aortic aneurysm

Growth rate of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is thought to be an important indicator of the potential risk of rupture. Wall stress is also thought to be a trigger for its rupture. However, stress change during the expansion of an AAA is unclear. Forty-four patients with AAAs were included in this longitudinal follow-up study. They were assessed by serial abdominal ultrasonography and computerized tomography (CT) scans if a critical size was reached or a rapid expansion occurred. Patient-specific 3-dimensional AAA geometries were reconstructed from the follow-up CT images. Structural analysis was performed to calculate the wall stresses of the AAA models at both baseline and final visit. A non-linear large-strain finite element method was used to compute the wall stress distribution. The average growth rate was 0.66cm/year (range 0-1.32 cm/year). A significantly positive correlation between shoulder tress at baseline and growth rate was found (r=0.342; p=0.02). A higher shoulder stress is associated with a rapidly expanding AAA. Therefore, it may be useful for estimating the growth expansion of AAAs and further risk stratification of patients with AAAs.

Does calcium deposition play a role in the stability of atheroma? Location may be the key

Background: Rupture of vulnerable atheromatous plaque in the carotid and coronary arteries often leads to stroke and heart attack respectively. The role of calcium deposition and its contribution to plaque stability is controversial. This study uses both an idealized and a patient-specific model to evaluate the effect of a calcium deposit on the stress distribution within an atheromatous plaque. Methods: Using a finite-element method, structural analysis was performed on an idealized plaque model and the location of a calcium deposit within it was varied. In addition to the idealized model, in vivo high-resolution MR imaging was performed on 3 patients with carotid atheroma and stress distributions were generated. The individual plaques were chosen as they had calcium at varying locations with respect to the lumen and the fibrous cap. Results: The predicted maximum stress was increased by 47.5% when the calcium deposit was located in the thin fibrous cap in the model when compared with that in a model without a deposit. The result of adding a calcium deposit either to the lipid core or remote from the lumen resulted in almost no increase in maximal stress. Conclusion: Calcification at the thin fibrous cap may result in high stress concentrations, ultimately increasing the risk of plaque rupture. Assessing the location of calcification may, in the future, aid in the risk stratification of patients with carotid stenosis.

May the best Tweeter win : The Twitter strategies of key campaign accounts in the 2012 US election

The 2008 US election has been heralded as the first presidential election of the social media era, but took place at a time when social media were still in a state of comparative infancy; so much so that the most important platform was not Facebook or Twitter, but the purpose-built campaign site my.barackobama.com, which became the central vehicle for the most successful electoral fundraising campaign in American history. By 2012, the social media landscape had changed: Facebook and, to a somewhat lesser extent, Twitter are now well-established as the leading social media platforms in the United States, and were used extensively by the campaign organisations of both candidates. As third-party spaces controlled by independent commercial entities, however, their use necessarily differs from that of home-grown, party-controlled sites: from the point of view of the platform itself, a @BarackObama or @MittRomney is technically no different from any other account, except for the very high follower count and an exceptional volume of @mentions. In spite of the significant social media experience which Democrat and Republican campaign strategists had already accumulated during the 2008 campaign, therefore, the translation of such experience to the use of Facebook and Twitter in their 2012 incarnations still required a substantial amount of new work, experimentation, and evaluation. This chapter examines the Twitter strategies of the leading accounts operated by both campaign headquarters: the ‘personal’ candidate accounts @BarackObama and @MittRomney as well as @JoeBiden and @PaulRyanVP, and the campaign accounts @Obama2012 and @TeamRomney. Drawing on datasets which capture all tweets from and at these accounts during the final months of the campaign (from early September 2012 to the immediate aftermath of the election night), we reconstruct the campaigns’ approaches to using Twitter for electioneering from the quantitative and qualitative patterns of their activities, and explore the resonance which these accounts have found with the wider Twitter userbase. A particular focus of our investigation in this context will be on the tweeting styles of these accounts: the mixture of original messages, @replies, and retweets, and the level and nature of engagement with everyday Twitter followers. We will examine whether the accounts chose to respond (by @replying) to the messages of support or criticism which were directed at them, whether they retweeted any such messages (and whether there was any preferential retweeting of influential or – alternatively – demonstratively ordinary users), and/or whether they were used mainly to broadcast and disseminate prepared campaign messages. Our analysis will highlight any significant differences between the accounts we examine, trace changes in style over the course of the final campaign months, and correlate such stylistic differences with the respective electoral positioning of the candidates. Further, we examine the use of these accounts during moments of heightened attention (such as the presidential and vice-presidential debates, or in the context of controversies such as that caused by the publication of the Romney “47%” video; additional case studies may emerge over the remainder of the campaign) to explore how they were used to present or defend key talking points, and exploit or avert damage from campaign gaffes. A complementary analysis of the messages directed at the campaign accounts (in the form of @replies or retweets) will also provide further evidence for the extent to which these talking points were picked up and disseminated by the wider Twitter population. Finally, we also explore the use of external materials (links to articles, images, videos, and other content on the campaign sites themselves, in the mainstream media, or on other platforms) by the campaign accounts, and the resonance which these materials had with the wider follower base of these accounts. This provides an indication of the integration of Twitter into the overall campaigning process, by highlighting how the platform was used as a means of encouraging the viral spread of campaign propaganda (such as advertising materials) or of directing user attention towards favourable media coverage. By building on comprehensive, large datasets of Twitter activity (as of early October, our combined datasets comprise some 3.8 million tweets) which we process and analyse using custom-designed social media analytics tools, and by using our initial quantitative analysis to guide further qualitative evaluation of Twitter activity around these campaign accounts, we are able to provide an in-depth picture of the use of Twitter in political campaigning during the 2012 US election which will provide detailed new insights social media use in contemporary elections. This analysis will then also be able to serve as a touchstone for the analysis of social media use in subsequent elections, in the USA as well as in other developed nations where Twitter and other social media platforms are utilised in electioneering.

Toward Figural Fantasy : The Representation of Consciousness in Modern American Fantasy Literature

Tajunnanesitys amerikkalaisessa heterodiegeettisessä fantasiakirjallisuudessa on muuttunut merkittävästi viimeisen kolmen vuosikymmenen aikana: kerrontaa orientoiva ja tarinamaailmaa havainnoiva tajunta on vähin erin vaihtunut kaikkitietävästä kertojasta tarinan sisäiseksi henkilöhahmoksi. Kertoja on samalla vetäytynyt yhä syvemmälle kerronnan kulissien taakse. Tämä tutkielma hahmottaa ja analysoi kyseistä muutosta siirtymänä kertojakeskeisestä kerronnasta kohti henkilökeskeistä kerrontaa. Tutkielmassa tajunnanesityksen teoreettisen kehyksen muodostavat F. K. Stanzelin kertojakeskeisen ja henkilökeskeisen kerrontatilanteen käsitteet. Kerrontatilanteita tarkennetaan fokalisaation, vapaan epäsuoran esityksen, sisäisen monologin ja psykonarraation teorioiden avulla. Tutkielma jakaantuu kahteen osaan. Ensimmäisessä osassa vertaillaan kahta prototyyppistä fantasiaromaania syväluotaavan narratologisen analyysin keinoin. Kertojakeskeistä kerrontaa edustaa Fritz Leiberin "The Swords of Lankhmar" (1968) ja henkilökeskeistä kerrontaa George R. R. Martinin "A Game of Thrones" (1996). Toisessa osassa tarkastellaan pääpiirteittäin kuuttatoista muuta aikaansa edustavaa fantasiaromaania ja hahmotetaan tajunnanesityksen muutoksen kronologista kulkua. Yhdessä osat ilmentävät, kuinka amerikkalainen heterodiegeettinen fantasiakirjallisuus on muuttunut kerrontateknisesti henkilökeskeisemmäksi. Tutkielma on ensimmäinen laatuaan, ja sen on tarkoitus luoda pohjaa uudenlaiselle modernin fantasiakirjallisuuden tutkimukselle ja kirjalliselle arvostukselle.

From Iron Horse to Rauta-airot - a Semiotic View on the Domestication of Metaphors in Literary Translation

The thesis concentrates on two questions: the translation of metaphors in literary texts, and the use of semiotic models and tools in translation studies. The aim of the thesis is to present a semiotic, text based model designed to ease the translation of metaphors and to analyze translated metaphors. In the translation of metaphors I will concentrate on the central problem of metaphor translations: in addition to its denotation and connotation, a single metaphor may contain numerous culture or genre specific meanings. How can a translator ensure the translation of all meanings relevant to the text as a whole? I will approach the question from two directions. Umberto Eco's holistic text analysis model provides an opportunity to concentrate on the problematic nature of metaphor translation from the level of a text as a specific entity, while George Lakoff's and Mark Johnson's metaphor research makes it possible to approach the question from the level of individual metaphors. On the semiotic side, the model utilizes Eero Tarasti's existential semiotics supported by Algirdas Greimas' actant model and Yuri Lotman's theory of cultural semiotics. In the model introduced in the thesis, individual texts are deconstructed through Eco's model into elements. The textual roles and features of these elements are distilled further through Tarasti's model into their coexistent meaning levels. The priorization and analysis of these meaning levels provide an opportunity to consider the contents and significance of specific metaphors in relation to the needs of the text as a whole. As example texts, I will use Motörhead's hard rock classic Iron Horse/Born to Lose and its translation into Rauta-airot by Viikate. I will use the introduced model to analyze the metaphors in the source and target texts, and to consider the transfer of culture specific elements between the languages and cultural borders. In addition, I will use the analysis process to examine the validity of the model introduced in the thesis.

The story of … the military jacket

Fashion and war don’t seem an obvious pairing, but the military jacket is a fashion staple. It may take the form of a double-breasted dress uniform with brass buttons and epaulettes, trimmed in rock star braid, or it may be a khaki combat jacket, worn with Doc Martens and a scowl. Here I explore how these two forms of the military jacket were frogmarched into fashion...

A thermometer for interdependence: Exploring patterns of interdependence using networks of affordances

Interdependence is a central concept in systems and organizations, yet our methods for measuring it are not well developed. Here, we report on a novel method for transforming digital trace data into networks of events that can be used to visualize and measure interdependence. The edges in the network represent sequential flow and the vertices represent actors, actions and artifacts. We refer to this representation as an affordance network. As with conventional approaches such as process mining, our method uses input from a stream of time-stamped occurrences, but the representation is simpler and more appropriate for exploration and theory building. As digital trace data becomes more widely available, this method may become more useful in information systems research and practice. Like a thermometer, it helps us measure a basic property of a system that would otherwise be difficult to see.

Developing improved supply chains for temperate fruits in transitional Asian economies of Thailand and Vietnam.

Asia's increasing demand for both tropical and temperate fruit is projected to grow significantly. Compared with most developed countries, the production of temperate fruits (peach, nectarine, plum and apple) has expanded rapidly in China over the past 20 years. In contrast, current production of plums and peaches in neighbouring countries (Thailand and Vietnam) is very low but their fruit enters the market earlier. Thailand and Vietnam have enormous potential to satisfy a market window in the northern hemisphere period from March to May inclusive when there is little or no stone fruit on the Asian market. In Vietnam, fruit is harvested in an immature state to avoid disease and fruit fly problems and consequently lacks size and flavour. Approximately 30-40% of locally produced fruit in Vietnam does not reach market due to disease and poor handling during picking and transport. In Thailand, much of the infrastructure needed to transport, store, process and market temperate fruits successfully are now in place. However, there are currently no cool chain management or quality assurance systems to ensure a fresh product reaches the consumer with minimal deterioration. In Vietnam, growing stone fruit under the traditional system with little or minimal inputs, the farmer may receive between AUD3,000-5,000 per ha. In comparison, under higher input systems incorporating fertiliser, irrigation and pest and disease management, net returns can be increased seven-fold. Strengths and weaknesses of the current supply chains in these two countries are discussed.

Promoting articulated action from diverse stakeholders in response to public policy scenarios: A case analysis of the use of ‘scenario improvisation’ method

In this paper we present a novel application of scenario methods to engage a diverse constituency of senior stakeholders, with limited time availability, in debate to inform planning and policy development. Our case study project explores post-carbon futures for the Latrobe Valley region of the Australian state of Victoria. Our approach involved initial deductive development of two ‘extreme scenarios’ by a multi-disciplinary research team, based upon an extensive research programme. Over four workshops with the stakeholder constituency, these initial scenarios were discussed, challenged, refined and expanded through an inductive process, whereby participants took ‘ownership’ of a final set of three scenarios. These were both comfortable and challenging to them. The outcomes of this process subsequently informed public policy development for the region. Whilst this process did not follow a single extant structured, multi-stage scenario approach, neither was it devoid of form. Here, we seek to theorise and codify elements of our process – which we term ‘scenario improvisation’ – such that others may adopt it.

Heräämisten poetiikkaa : Lajeja ja intertekstejä Arvid Järnefeltin romaaneissa Isänmaa, Maaemon lapsia ja Veneh'ojalaiset

Poetics of Awakenings. Genres and Intertexts in Arvid Järnefelt s Novels Isänmaa, Maaemon lapsia and Veneh ojalaiset This doctoral dissertation focuses on Arvid Järnefelt s (1961 1932) novels Isänmaa (1893), Maaemon lapsia (1905) and Veneh ojalaiset (1909). The study applies the genre theory and concepts Alastair Fowler has introduced in his Kinds of Literature (1982). Fowler s theory of the novel is developed further and applied to Finnish realist novels. The generic analysis is supplemented by intertextual analysis, which is mainly based on the idea of specific intertextual relations as presented by Kiril Taranovsky. Generic and intertextual analyses form the basis for hermeneutic interpretation, in which attention is paid to the fact that the novels are written by the designated writer in specific historical and cultural circumstances. Instead of the author s intention , the study focuses on the realised intention , in other words the novels as they are published. Järnefelt s first novel Isänmaa is understood to be a classical Bidungsroman that depicts the socialisation of a young male protagonist. From an intertextual point of view, the novel appears to be a novel of conversion, too, due to the biblical allusions concealed in the depiction of the events. Furthermore, Isänmaa is seen to stand in an intertextual relation to Hegel s, Snellman s and Topelius s writings. Maaemon lapsia is argued to be a thesis novel, which persuades the reader to adopt a certain ideological and political stance, namely Henry George s view on the private ownership of land. The novel is modulated by the generic repertoires of fairy tale and tragedy. The mythical frame of the novel supports the thesis novel, as it gives universal validity to the particular events depicted in the novel. Maaemon lapsia also comments on the contemporary political debate on the relations between Finland and Russia by presenting the relationship as analogous to the relationship between tenant farmer and landowner. Veneh ojalaiset exhibits a wide range of genres. Comic, tragic and mythical mode is combined with, for example, family novel, romance, conversion novel and revolutionary novel. From a rhetorical viewpoint, the novel is an apology, which accuses society of generating criminality by means of unjust laws and procedures. The novel discusses the question of resistance to evil by using the themes of Faust and Job, as well as by confronting the philosophies of Epictetus and Nietzsche. The novel is a thesis novel, which disputes the possibility of violent revolution as a way to a better society and recommends passive resistance for an individual living in an unjust society. The poetics of Järnefelt s novels is regarded as the poetics of conversion, as all the novels in focus depict the protagonist s awakening to see the society in a new light, be it a patriotic vision of the reality or a conception of the unfairness of society.

Pimelea trichostachya poisoning (St George disease) in horses

A dense population of Pimelea trichostachya plants (Family Thymelaeaceae) in pasture poisoned a horse herd in southern inland Queensland in October-November 2005. Plant density was 2 to 45 g wet weight/m2 (mean 16 g/m2) from 5 to 69 plants/m2 (mean 38 plants/m2) representing 3 to 20% (mean 9%) of the volume of pasture on offer. Ten of 35 mares, fillies and geldings were affected. Clinical signs were loss of body weight, profound lethargy, serous nasal discharge, severe watery diarrhoea and subcutaneous oedema of the intermandibular space, chest and ventral midline. Pathological findings were anaemia, leucocytopenia, hypoproteinaemia, dilatation of the right ventricle of the heart, dilated hepatic portal veins and periportal hepatic sinusoids (peliosis hepatis), alimentary mucosal hyperaemia and oedema of mesenteric lymph nodes. Cattle grazing the same pasture were affected by Pimelea poisoning simultaneously. Removal of the horses to Pimelea-free pasture initiated recovery. The one other incident of this syndrome, previously only recognised in cattle in Australia, occurred in horses, in South Australia in 2002, with access to a dense Pimelea simplex population.