Influence of the sea state on Mediterranean heavy precipitation: a case-study from HyMeX SOP1

Sea state can influence the turbulent air–sea exchanges, especially the momentum flux, by modifying the sea-surface roughness. The high-resolution non-hydrostatic convection-permitting model MESO-NH is used here to investigate the impact of a more realistic representation of the waves on heavy precipitation during the Intense Observation Period (IOP) 16a of the first HyMeX Special Observation Period (SOP1). Several quasi-stationary mesoscale convective systems developed over the western Mediterranean region, two of them over the sea, and resulted in heavy precipitation on the French and Italian coasts on 26 October 2012. Three different bulk parametrizations are tested in this study: a reference case (NOWAV) without any wave effect, a parametrization taking into account theoretical wave effects (WAV) and a last one with realistic wave characteristics from the MFWAM analyses (WAM). Using a realistic wave representation in WAM significantly increases the roughness length and the friction velocity with respect to NOWAV and WAV. The three MESO-NH sensitivity experiments of the IOP16a show that this surface-roughness increase in WAM generates higher momentum fluxes and directly impacts the low-level dynamics of the atmosphere, with a slowdown of the 10 m wind, when and where the wind speed exceeds 10 m s−1 and the sea state differs from the idealized one. The turbulent heat fluxes are not significantly influenced by the waves, these fluxes being controlled by the moisture content rather than by the wind speed in the simulations. Although the convective activity is globally well reproduced by all the simulations, the difference in the low-level dynamics of the atmosphere influences the localization of the simulated heavy precipitation. Objective evaluation of the daily rainfall amount and of the 10 m wind speed against the observations confirms the positive impact of the realistic wave representation on this simulation of heavy precipitation.

DESIGN, MODELING, AND FABRICATION OF MICROROBOT LEGS

This dissertation presents work done in the design, modeling, and fabrication of magnetically actuated microrobot legs. Novel fabrication processes for manufacturing multi-material compliant mechanisms have been used to fabricate effective legged robots at both the meso and micro scales, where the meso scale refers to the transition between macro and micro scales. This work discusses the development of a novel mesoscale manufacturing process, Laser Cut Elastomer Refill (LaCER), for prototyping millimeter-scale multi-material compliant mechanisms with elastomer hinges. Additionally discussed is an extension of previous work on the development of a microscale manufacturing process for fabricating micrometer-sale multi-material compliant mechanisms with elastomer hinges, with the added contribution of a method for incorporating magnetic materials for mechanism actuation using externally applied fields. As both of the fabrication processes outlined make significant use of highly compliant elastomer hinges, a fast, accurate modeling method for these hinges was desired for mechanism characterization and design. An analytical model was developed for this purpose, making use of the pseudo rigid-body (PRB) model and extending its utility to hinges with significant stretch component, such as those fabricated from elastomer materials. This model includes 3 springs with stiffnesses relating to material stiffness and hinge geometry, with additional correction factors for aspects particular to common multi-material hinge geometry. This model has been verified against a finite element analysis model (FEA), which in turn was matched to experimental data on mesoscale hinges manufactured using LaCER. These modeling methods have additionally been verified against experimental data from microscale hinges manufactured using the Si/elastomer/magnetics MEMS process. The development of several mechanisms is also discussed: including a mesoscale LaCER-fabricated hexapedal millirobot capable of walking at 2.4 body lengths per second; prototyped mesoscale LaCER-fabricated underactuated legs with asymmetrical features for improved performance; 1 centimeter cubed LaCER-fabricated magnetically-actuated hexapods which use the best-performing underactuated leg design to locomote at up to 10.6 body lengths per second; five microfabricated magnetically actuated single-hinge mechanisms; a 14-hinge, 11-link microfabricated gripper mechanism; a microfabricated robot leg mechansim demonstrated clearing a step height of 100 micrometers; and a 4 mm x 4 mm x 5 mm, 25 mg microfabricated magnetically-actuated hexapod, demonstrated walking at up to 2.25 body lengths per second.

Reconstructability of 3-Dimensional Upper Ocean Circulation from SWOT Sea Surface Height Measurements

Utilizing the framework of effective surface quasi-geostrophic (eSQG) theory, we explored the potential of reconstructing the 3D upper ocean circulation structures, including the balanced vertical velocity (w) field, from high-resolution sea surface height (SSH) data of the planned SWOT satellite mission. Specifically, we utilized the 1/30°, submesoscale-resolving, OFES model output and subjected it through the SWOT simulator that generates the along-swath SSH data with expected measurement errors. Focusing on the Kuroshio Extension region in the North Pacific where regional Rossby numbers range from 0.22 to 0.32, we found that the eSQG dynamics constitutes an effective framework for reconstructing the 3D upper ocean circulation field. Using the modeled SSH data as input, the eSQG-reconstructed relative vorticity (ζ) and w fields are found to reach a correlation of 0.7–0.9 and 0.6–0.7, respectively, in the 1,000m upper ocean when compared to the original model output. Degradation due to the SWOT sampling and measurement errors in the input SSH data for the ζ and w reconstructions is found to be moderate, 5–25% for the 3D ζ field and 15-35% for the 3D w field. There exists a tendency for this degradation ratio to decrease in regions where the regional eddy variability (or Rossby number) increases.

DopSCAT: A mission concept for simultaneous measurements of marine winds and surface currents

A radar scatterometer operates by transmitting a pulse of microwave energy toward the ocean's surface and measuring the normalized (per-unit-surface) radar backscatter coefficient (σ°). The primary application of scatterometry is the measurement of near-surface ocean winds. By combining σ° measurements from different azimuth angles, the 10 m vector wind can be determined through a Geophysical Model Function (GMF), which relates wind and backscatter. This paper proposes a mission concept for the measurement of both oceanic winds and surface currents, which makes full use of earlier C-band radar remote sensing experience. For the determination of ocean currents, in particular, the novel idea of using two chirps of opposite slope is introduced. The fundamental processing steps required to retrieve surface currents are given together with their associated accuracies. A detailed description of the mission proposal and comparisons between real and retrieved surface currents are presented. The proposed ocean Doppler scatterometer can be used to generate global surface ocean current maps with accuracies better than 0.2 m/s at a spatial resolution better than 25 km (i.e., 12.5 km spatial sampling) on a daily basis. These maps will allow gaining some insights on the upper ocean mesoscale dynamics. The work lies at a frontier, given that the present inability to measure ocean currents from space in a consistent and synoptic manner represents one of the greatest weaknesses in ocean remote sensing.

Condições metereológicas sinópticas e de mesoscala durante episódios de poluição atmosférica por matéria particulada na área da grande Lisboa

O presente estudo analisa a associação entre partículas inaláveis (PM10) à superfície e determinadas situações meteorológicas, com base em dados (1999-2003) de concentração de partículas finas e grosseiras de estações de qualidade do ar da região de Lisboa e observações meteorológicas. Associaram-se os episódios de poluição a situações sinópticas, com base em cartas de superfície do modelo do Centro Europeu de previsão a médio prazo (ECMWF). Os episódios que ocorrem com maior frequência no Inverno estão associados a um anticiclone. Depressões de origem térmica e vales que se estendem do Norte de África ocorrem poucas vezes, mas a probabilidade de se verificar um episódio com essas situações é elevada. Para cinco destes episódios analisaram-se campos do modelo ECMWF (escala sinóptica) e do modelo ALADIN (mesoscala). As elevadas concentrações de partículas associadas aos episódios estudados resultaram de uma forte influência do nível850 hPa, corroborados pelo modelo de retro-trajectórias do KNMI. ABSTRACT; The present study analyses the relationship between particles (PM10) and specific meteorological patterns based on fine and coarse particles concentration data (1999 to 2003) from the Lisbon area air quality network and meteorological observations. Associations were established between PM10 events and synoptic patterns based on surface fields from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Model. Winter events occur mainly under high pressure conditions. Thermal lows and troughs over North Africa affecting the lberian Península occur less frequently; however, the probability of a PM event with this synoptic pattern is high. Meteorological fields from the ECMWF model (synoptic scale) and the ALADIN model (mesoscale) were analyzed for five of these episodes. The 850 hPa level is quite relevant for determining high PM10 concentrations at the surface, as confirmed by KNMI trajectory model.

A four-dimensional analysis of the thermal structure in the Gulf of Lion

The Theoretical and Experimental Tomography in the Sea Experiment (THETIS 1) took place in the Gulf of Lion to observe the evolution of the temperature field and the process of deep convection during the 1991-1992 winter. The temperature measurements consist, of moored sensors, conductivity-temperature-depth and expendable bathythermograph surveys, ana acoustic tomography. Because of this diverse data set and since the field evolves rather fast, the analysis uses a unified framework, based on estimation theory and implementing a Kalman filter. The resolution and the errors associated with the model are systematically estimated. Temperature is a good tracer of water masses. The time-evolving three-dimensional view of the field resulting from the analysis shows the details of the three classical convection phases: preconditioning, vigourous convection, and relaxation. In all phases, there is strong spatial nonuniformity, with mesoscale activity, short timescales, and sporadic evidence of advective events (surface capping, intrusions of Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW)). Deep convection, reaching 1500 m, was observed in late February; by late April the field had not yet returned to its initial conditions (strong deficit of LIW). Comparison with available atmospheric flux data shows that advection acts to delay the occurence of convection and confirms the essential role of buoyancy fluxes. For this winter, the deep. mixing results in an injection of anomalously warm water (Delta T similar or equal to 0.03 degrees) to a depth of 1500 m, compatible with the deep warming previously reported.

Parameterization of quasigeostrophic eddies in primitive equation ocean models

A parameterization of mesoscale eddy fluxes in the ocean should be consistent with the fact that the ocean interior is nearly adiabatic. Gent and McWilliams have described a framework in which this can be approximated in L-coordinate primitive equation models by incorporating the effects of eddies on the buoyancy field through an eddy-induced velocity. It is also natural to base a parameterization on the simple picture of the mixing of potential vorticity in the interior and the mixing of buoyancy at the surface. The authors discuss the various constraints imposed by these two requirements and attempt to clarify the appropriate boundary conditions on the eddy-induced velocities at the surface. Quasigeostrophic theory is used as a guide to the simplest way of satisfying these constraints.

A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis

For derived flood frequency analysis based on hydrological modelling long continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are needed. Often, the observation network with recording rainfall gauges is poor, especially regarding the limited length of the available rainfall time series. Stochastic precipitation synthesis is a good alternative either to extend or to regionalise rainfall series to provide adequate input for long-term rainfall-runoff modelling with subsequent estimation of design floods. Here, a new two step procedure for stochastic synthesis of continuous hourly space-time rainfall is proposed and tested for the extension of short observed precipitation time series. First, a single-site alternating renewal model is presented to simulate independent hourly precipitation time series for several locations. The alternating renewal model describes wet spell durations, dry spell durations and wet spell intensities using univariate frequency distributions separately for two seasons. The dependence between wet spell intensity and duration is accounted for by 2-copulas. For disaggregation of the wet spells into hourly intensities a predefined profile is used. In the second step a multi-site resampling procedure is applied on the synthetic point rainfall event series to reproduce the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. Resampling is carried out successively on all synthetic event series using simulated annealing with an objective function considering three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics. In a case study synthetic precipitation is generated for some locations with short observation records in two mesoscale catchments of the Bode river basin located in northern Germany. The synthetic rainfall data are then applied for derived flood frequency analysis using the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show good performance in reproducing average and extreme rainfall characteristics as well as in reproducing observed flood frequencies. The presented model has the potential to be used for ungauged locations through regionalisation of the model parameters.

Study of different atmospheric environments associated to storms development in the Madeira Island

The study aims to improve the understanding about different atmospheric environments leading to the development of storms associated with heavy precipitation in Madeira Island. For this purpose, four main goals have been considered: 1) To document the synoptic and mesoscale environments associated with heavy precipitation. 2) To characterize surface precipitation patterns that affected the island during some periods of significant accumulated precipitation using numerical modelling. 3) To study the relationship between surface precipitation patterns and mesoscale environments. 4) To highlight how the PhD findings obtained in the first three goals can be translated into an operational forecast context. Concerning the large scale environment, precipitation over the island was favoured by weather systems (e.g, mesoscale convective systems and low pressure systems), as well as by the meridional transport of high amount of moisture from a structure denominated as “Atmospheric River”. The tropical origin of this moisture is underscored, however, their impact on the precipitation in Madeira was not so high during the 10 winter seasons [2002 – 2012] studied. The main factor triggering heavy precipitation events over the island is related to the local orography. The steep terrain favours orographically-induced stationary precipitation over the highlands, although maximum of precipitation at coastal region may be produced by localized blocking effect. These orographic precipitating systems presented different structures, associated with shallow and deep convection. Essentially, the study shows that the combination of airflow dynamics, moist content, and orography is the major mechanism that produces precipitation over the island. These factors together with the event duration act to define the regions of excessive precipitation. Finally, the study highlights two useful points for the operational sector, regarding the meridional water vapour transport and local effects causing significant precipitation over the Island; RESUMO: O estudo procura melhorar o entendimento sobre os diferentes ambientes atmosféricos que favorecem o desenvolvimento de tempestades associadas com precipitação intensa na ilha da Madeira. Nesse sentido foram definidos quatro objetivos: 1) Documentar os ambientes sinópticos e de mesoescala associados com precipitação intensa; 2) Caracterizar padrões de precipitação na superfície, em eventos de elevada precipitação acumulada, utilizando modelação numérica; 3) Estudar as relações entre os padrões de precipitação e ambientes de mesoescala; 4) Mostrar como tais resultados podem ser utilizados num contexto operacional de previsão do tempo. Em relação a ambientes de larga escala, verificou-se que a ocorrência de eventos de precipitação intensa sobre a ilha foi favorecida por sistemas meteorológicos, assim como pelo transporte meridional de humidade por meio de estruturas atualmente denominadas Rios atmosféricos. Neste último caso é de destacar a origem tropical de humidade, no entanto, o seu impacto na precipitação sobre a Madeira durante os 10 invernos estudados [2002-2012] não foi tão elevada. O principal fator que favorece os eventos de precipitação intensa está relacionado com a orografia local. O terreno complexo da ilha favorece a ocorrência de precipitação estacionária induzida orograficamente sobre as terras mais altas, embora a precipitação nas zonas costeiras possa ser produzida por um efeito localizado de bloqueio. Estes sistemas orográficos precipitantes apresentaram diferentes estruturas, associados a convecção pouco profunda e profunda. O estudo mostra que a combinação entre as características do escoamento, a quantidade de humidade, e a orografia são os condimentos essenciais para o desenvolvimento da precipitação sobre a ilha, atuando de maneira a definir as regiões de precipitação excessiva. Por fim, o estudo destaca dois pontos que podem ser úteis na previsão do tempo operacional, ligados a larga escala e aos efeitos locais, os quais podem levar ao desenvolvimento de tempestades e precipitação intensa sobre a ilha.

Using a Combination of Phylogenetic Comparative and Paleobotanical Methods to Elucidate Patterns of Lineage Selection in Rosales (Plantae: Anthophyta)

An increasing focus in evolutionary biology is on the interplay between mesoscale ecological and evolutionary processes such as population demographics, habitat tolerance, and especially geographic distribution, as potential drivers responsible for patterns of diversification and extinction over geologic time. However, few studies to date connect organismal processes such as survival and reproduction through mesoscale patterns to long-term macroevolutionary trends. In my dissertation, I investigate how mechanism of seed dispersal, mediated through geographic range size, influences diversification rates in the Rosales (Plantae: Anthophyta). In my first chapter, I validate the phylogenetic comparative methods that I use in my second and third chapters. Available state speciation and extinction (SSE) models assumptions about evolution known to be false through fossil data. I show, however, that as long as net diversification rates remain positive – a condition likely true for the Rosales – these violations of SSE’s assumptions do not cause significantly biased results. With SSE methods validated, my second chapter reconstructs three associations that appear to increase diversification rate for Rosalean genera: (1) herbaceous habit; (2) a three-way interaction combining animal dispersal, high within-genus species richness, and geographic range on multiple continents; (3) a four-way interaction combining woody habit with the other three characteristics of (2). I suggest that the three- and four-way interactions represent colonization ability and resulting extinction resistance in the face of late Cenozoic climate change; however, there are other possibilities as well that I hope to investigate in future research. My third chapter reconstructs the phylogeographic history of the Rosales using both non-fossil-assisted SSE methods as well as fossil-informed traditional phylogeographic analysis. Ancestral state reconstructions indicate that the Rosaceae diversified in North America while the other Rosalean families diversified elsewhere, possibly in Eurasia. SSE is able to successfully identify groups of genera that were likely to have been ancestrally widespread, but has poorer taxonomic resolution than methods that use fossil data. In conclusion, these chapters together suggest several potential causal links between organismal, mesoscale, and geologic scale processes, but further work will be needed to test the hypotheses that I raise here.

Multiscale Modeling and Simulation of Stepped Crystal Surfaces

A primary goal of this dissertation is to understand the links between mathematical models that describe crystal surfaces at three fundamental length scales: The scale of individual atoms, the scale of collections of atoms forming crystal defects, and macroscopic scale. Characterizing connections between different classes of models is a critical task for gaining insight into the physics they describe, a long-standing objective in applied analysis, and also highly relevant in engineering applications. The key concept I use in each problem addressed in this thesis is coarse graining, which is a strategy for connecting fine representations or models with coarser representations. Often this idea is invoked to reduce a large discrete system to an appropriate continuum description, e.g. individual particles are represented by a continuous density. While there is no general theory of coarse graining, one closely related mathematical approach is asymptotic analysis, i.e. the description of limiting behavior as some parameter becomes very large or very small. In the case of crystalline solids, it is natural to consider cases where the number of particles is large or where the lattice spacing is small. Limits such as these often make explicit the nature of links between models capturing different scales, and, once established, provide a means of improving our understanding, or the models themselves. Finding appropriate variables whose limits illustrate the important connections between models is no easy task, however. This is one area where computer simulation is extremely helpful, as it allows us to see the results of complex dynamics and gather clues regarding the roles of different physical quantities. On the other hand, connections between models enable the development of novel multiscale computational schemes, so understanding can assist computation and vice versa. Some of these ideas are demonstrated in this thesis. The important outcomes of this thesis include: (1) a systematic derivation of the step-flow model of Burton, Cabrera, and Frank, with corrections, from an atomistic solid-on-solid-type models in 1+1 dimensions; (2) the inclusion of an atomistically motivated transport mechanism in an island dynamics model allowing for a more detailed account of mound evolution; and (3) the development of a hybrid discrete-continuum scheme for simulating the relaxation of a faceted crystal mound. Central to all of these modeling and simulation efforts is the presence of steps composed of individual layers of atoms on vicinal crystal surfaces. Consequently, a recurring theme in this research is the observation that mesoscale defects play a crucial role in crystal morphological evolution.

Chiroptical spectroscopy of biomolecules using chiral plasmonic nanostructures

This thesis explores the potential of chiral plasmonic nanostructures for the ultrasensitive detection of protein structure. These nanostructures support the generation of fields with enhanced chirality relative to circularly polarised light and are an extremely incisive probe of protein structure. In chapter 4 we introduce a nanopatterned Au film (Templated Plasmonic Substrate, TPS) fabricated using a high through-put injection moulding technique which is a viable alternative to expensive lithographically fabricated nanostructures. The optical and chiroptical properties of TPS nanostructures are found to be highly dependent on the coupling between the electric and magnetic modes of the constituent solid and inverse structures. Significantly, refractive index based measurements of strongly coupled TPSs display a similar sensitivity to protein structure as previous lithographic nanostructures. We subsequently endeavour to improve the sensing properties of TPS nanostructures by developing a high through-put nanoscale chemical functionalisation technique. This process involves a chemical protection/deprotection strategy. The protection step generates a self-assembled monolayer (SAM) of a thermally responsive polymer on the TPS surface which inhibits protein binding. The deprotection step exploits the presence of nanolocalised thermal gradients in the water surrounding the TPS upon irradiation with an 8ns pulsed laser to modify the SAM conformation on surfaces with high net chirality. This allows binding of biomaterial in these regions and subsequently enhances the TPS sensitivity levels. In chapter 6 an alternative method for the detection of protein structure using TPS nanostructures is introduced. This technique relies on mediation of the electric/magnetic coupling in the TPS by the adsorbed protein. This phenomenon is probed through both linear reflectance and nonlinear second harmonic generation (SHG) measurements. Detection of protein structure using this method does not require the presence of fields of enhanced chirality whilst it is also sensitive to a larger array of secondary structure motifs than the measurements in chapters 4 and 5. Finally, a preliminary investigation into the detection of mesoscale biological structure is presented. Sensitivity to the mesoscale helical pitch of insulin amyloid fibrils is displayed through the asymmetry in the circular dichroism (CD) of lithographic gammadions of varying thickness upon adsorption of insulin amyloid fibril spherulites and fragmented fibrils. The proposed model for this sensitivity to the helical pitch relies on the vertical height of the nanostructures relative to this structural property as well as the binding orientation of the fibrils.

Perspetivas de utilização do potencial eólico em Timor-Leste

A exigência energética global está mais orientada para a utilização das fontes de Energias Renováveis (FERs), comprometendo e garantindo um desenvolvimento sustentável. Este trabalho tem como objetivo contribuir para o atingir das metas do PED 2011-2030, no que refere à utilização das FER, em particular do potencial eólico em Timor-Leste. Timor-Leste tem apresentado um grande interesse na política de aproveitamento de FER para alcançar a meta de longo prazo de PED 2030, comprometendo-se com o desenvolvimento sustentável através de ERs. Este trabalho pretende contribuir em particular com o estudo do aproveitamento de energia eólica. Com base no clima do vento de longo termo entre 2004 – 2012, da estação meteorológica (EM) de Díli e conjugando estes com os dados da campanha experimental de Martifer cedidos, de Dezembro 2008 - Novembro 2009, obteve-se o coeficiente de variabilidade (Cvariab.) inter-anual. Foi assim possível construir o mapa médio do vento de longo termo, com modelo atmosférico de mesoscala, numa resolução refinada de 3×3 km. Para a identificação dos locais mais favoráveis do vento, foi utilizado o modelo ArcGIS para georreferenciação do recurso. A filtragem das restrições e os constrangimentos do terreno permitiu construir o mapa do vento sustentável de Timor-Leste, por distritos, subdistritos, sucos, do enclave de Oecússi e a ilha de Atauro, o que conduziu à hierarquização de cinco zonas favoráveis (zona 1 - 5). A contribuição para o plano energético de Timor-Leste consiste em duas fases: - a 1ª fase o aproveitamento eólico em três PEs nas zonas monitorizadas (3 e 5) oriundo de dados cedidos pela Martifer, contabilizou-se um total de 424.694 MWh de produção de energia anual, tendo-se verificado o custo normalizado de energia (LCOE) no valor médio calculado de 0,046 €/kWh; - na 2ª fase a construção de acesso e o desenvolvimento de PEs nas zonas 1, 2 e 4 para o Cenário de Max-Renovável. Assim sendo, viabilizam a "Perspetiva de Utilização da Energia Eólica" no quadro do PED 2011 - 2030 de Timor-Leste, que viria reduzir o custo de produção de energia atual, e a emissão de CO2; Abstract: Prospects of Using Wind Energy in Timor-Leste The demand for global energy is more focused on the use of Reneweable Energy sources (REs), ensuring and committing itself to sustainable development. This study was prompted by the wish to contribute to the achievement the goals of the Strategic Development Plan (PED 2011-2030) regarding the use of REs, particularly the wind energy in Timor-Leste. Timor-Leste has presented a great interest in the use of renewable energy sources policy to achieve the long term goal of the PED 2030, committing to a sustainable development through renewable energy. This thesis intends to contribute in particular with the study of the use of wind energy. Based on the long term wind climate between 2004 and 2012 of the Díli weather station and combining these data with the Martifer campaign experimental data of December 2008 - November 2009, the interannual variation coefficient (Cv) was obtained. Thus, it was possible to build the map of long term average wind with atmospheric mesoscale model in a refined resolution of 3×3 km. The ArcGIS model was used for the identification of the most favorable locations of the wind for its georeferencing. The constraining of filtering and the constraints of the terrain allowed to construe the sustainable wind map of Timor-Leste in distritos, subdistritos, sucos, and also of the enclave of Oecussi and Atauro island, which led to the ranking of five favorable areas (zone 1-5) for an immediate experimental campaign of wind characterization and utilization of this resource in wind parks. The contribution to Timor-Leste's energy plan consists of two phases: - the first phase of three wind farms in zone (3 and 5) from data provided by Martifer, a total of 424,694 MWh, and levelyzed cost of electricity (LCOE) in the calculated average value of 0.046 €/kWh; - in the second phase the construction of access and development of wind farms in zones 1, 2 and 4 for the Max-Renewable Scenario. As such, they make possible the "Perspective of Wind Energy Use" in Timor Leste’s PED 2011 - 2030, which would reduce current energy production costs and CO2 emissions.

Understanding significant precipitation in Madeira island using high-resolution numerical simulations of real cases

In order to advance the knowledge about precipitation development over Madeira island, four rainfall patterns are investigated based on high-resolution numerical simulations performed with the MESO-NH model. The main environmental conditions during these precipitation periods are examined, and important factors leading to significant accumulated precipitation in Madeira are shown. We found that the combination of orographic effect and atmospheric conditions is essential for the establishment of each situation. Under a moist and conditionally unstable atmosphere, convection over the island is triggered, and its location was determined mainly by variations of the ambient flow, which was also associated with different moist Froude numbers. Interestingly, our results showed some similarities with situations discussed in idealized studies. However, the real variations of the atmospheric configuration confirm the complexity of significant precipitation development in mountainous regions. In addition, precipitating systems initially formed over the ocean were simulated reaching the island. The four periods were characterised by different time durations, and the local terrain interacting with the mesoscale circulation was decisive in producing a large part of the precipitation, which concentrated in distinct regions of the island induced by the airflow dynamic.