Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for a particular type of diffuse, for Minnesota-type and for hierarchical priors. Formulas for multistep, multiunit point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided.

Credible redistributive policies and migration across US States

Does worker mobility undermine governments ability to redistribute income? Thispaper analyzes the experience of US states in the recent decades. We build a tractablemodel where both migration decisions and redistribution policies are endogenous. Wecalibrate the model to match skill premium and worker productivity at the state level,as well as the size and skill composition of migration flows. The calibrated modelis able to reproduce the large changes in skill composition as well as key qualitativerelationships of labor flows and redistribution policies observed in the data. Our resultssuggest that regional di¤erences in labor productivity are an important determinantof interstate migration. We use the calibrated model to compare the cross-section ofredistributive policies with and without worker mobility. The main result of the paperis that interstate migration has induced substantial convergence in tax rates acrossUS states, but no race to the bottom. Skill-biased in-migration has reduced the skillpremium and the need for tax-based redistribution in the states that would have hadthe highest tax rates in the absence of mobility.

Keeping up with the Joneses: An international asset pricing model

We derive an international asset pricing model that assumes local investorshave preferences of the type "keeping up with the Joneses." In aninternational setting investors compare their current wealth with that oftheir peers who live in the same country. In the process of inferring thecountry's average wealth, investors incorporate information from the domesticmarket portfolio. In equilibrium, this gives rise to a multifactor CAPMwhere, together with the world market price of risk, there existscountry-speciffic prices of risk associated with deviations from thecountry's average wealth level. The model performs signifficantly better, interms of explaining cross-section of returns, than the international CAPM.Moreover, the results are robust, both for conditional and unconditionaltests, to the inclusion of currency risk, macroeconomic sources of risk andthe Fama and French HML factor.

Asset pricing implications of benchmarking: A two-factor CAPM

In this paper we consider the equilibrium effects of an institutionalinvestor whose performance is benchmarked to an index. In a partialequilibrium setting, the objective of the institutional investor is modeledas the maximization of expected utility (an increasing and concave function,in order to accommodate risk aversion) of final wealth minus a benchmark.In equilibrium this optimal strategy gives rise to the two-beta CAPM inBrennan (1993): together with the market beta a new risk-factor (that wecall active management risk) is brought into the analysis. This new betais deffined as the normalized (to the benchmark's variance) covariancebetween the asset excess return and the excess return of the market overthe benchmark index. Different to Brennan, the empirical test supports themodel's predictions. The cross-section return on the active management riskis positive and signifficant especially after 1990, when institutionalinvestors have become the representative agent of the market.

Rostrum length, mandible serration, and food and salivary canals areas of selected species of stink bugs (Heteroptera, Pentatomidae)

Laboratory studies were conducted to compare rostrum length morphology of mandible serration and area of food and salivary canals of Dichelops melacanthus (Dallas) (Dm), Euschistus heros (F.) (Eh), Nezara viridula (L.) (Nv), and Piezodorus guildinii (Westwood) (Pg) (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae). Nv showed the longest (5.9 mm) and Pg the shortest (3.5 mm) rostrum length; Dm and Eh were intermediate. Length and width of mandible tip areas holding serration was bigger for Nv (106.0 and 30.2 µm, respectively) and smaller for Pg (71.1 and 23.7 µm), with all species having four central teeth and three pairs of lateral teeth. The inner mandible surface showed squamous texture. Cross-section of food and salivary canals (Fc and Sc) indicated greater area for Nv and Dm compared to Eh and Pg; however, the ratio Fc/Sc, yielded the highest relative area for Pg.

Shield morphology of curly overhair in 22 genera of Soricidae (Insectivora, Mammalia)

The structure of the shield of curly overhairs was studied in 22 genera of shrews, using scanning electron microscopy. The cross section of the shield is quadriconcave with two sides showing particular scale patterns or a relief which can be grouped into 4 morphological types: 1) a smooth type with, at most, shallow U-shaped notches; 2) a type with uniserial, V-shaped tiled notches; 3) a type with a groove and irregular notches; 4) a type with a deep ridged groove. Myosorex, which occupies a basal phyletic position, shows type 3. This type is therefore interpreted as an ancestral character state. It is found also in Feroculus and in some Sylvisorex. In the Crocidurinae, this type evolved into type 2 (Scutisorex and some Indomalayan Crocidura), and finally into type 1 (Suncus and most Crocidura). In the Soricinae, it evolved into type 4, which is common to all genera except Megasorex and Notiosorex. These two genera possess type 1 which is interpreted as being a synapomorphous character of these genera. The regression of the complex structure under dry climatic conditions supports the hypothesis that the function of the grooved form of hair is water repulsion.

Emplacement of Jurassic - Lower Cretaceous radiolarites of the Nicoya Complex (Costa Rica)

We present a new model to explain the origin, emplacement and stratigraphy of the Nicoya Complex in the NW part of the Nicoya Peninsula (Costa Rica) based on twenty-five years of field work, accompanied with the evolution of geochemical, vulcanological, petrological, sedimentological and paleontological paradigms. The igneous-sedimentary relation, together with radiolarian biochronology of the NW-Nicoya Peninsula is re-examined. We interpret the Nicoya Complex as a cross-section of a fragment of the Late Cretaceous Caribbean Plateau, in which the deepest levels are exposed in the NW-Nicoya Peninsula. Over 50% of the igneous rocks are intrusive (gabbros and in less proportion plagiogranites) which have a single mantle source; the remainder are basalts with a similar geochemical signature. Ar39/Ar40 radioisotopic whole rock and plagioclase ages range throughout the area from 84 to 83 Ma (Santonian) for the intrusives, and from 139 to 88 Ma (Berriasian-Turonian) for the basalts. In contrast, Mn-radiolarites that crop out in the area are older in age, Bajocian (Middle Jurassic) to Albian (middle Cretaceous). These Mn-radiolaritic blocks are set in a "matrix" of multiple gabbros and diabases intrusions. Chilled margins of magmatites, and hydrothermal baking and leaching of the radiolarites confirm the Ar39/Ar40 dating of igneous rocks being consistently younger than most of the radiolarian cherts. No Jurassic magmatic basement has been identified on the Nicoya Peninsula. We interpret the Jurassic-Cretaceous chert sediment pile to have been disrupted and detached from its original basement by multiple magmatic events that occurred during the formation of the Caribbean Plateau. Coniacian-Santonian (Late Cretaceous), Fe-rich radiolarites are largely synchronous and associated with late phases of the Plateau.

Essays in general equilibrium asset pricing

ABSTRACT : Research in empirical asset pricing has pointed out several anomalies both in the cross section and time series of asset prices, as well as in investors' portfolio choice. This dissertation aims to discover the forces driving some of these "puzzling" asset pricing dynamics and portfolio decisions observed in the financial market. Through the dissertation I construct and study dynamic general equilibrium models of heterogeneous investors in the presence of frictions and evaluate quantitatively their implications for financial-market asset prices and portfolio choice. I also explore the potential roots of puzzles in international finance. Chapter 1 shows that, by introducing jointly endogenous no-default type of borrowing constraints and heterogeneous beliefs in a dynamic general-equilibrium economy, many empirical features of stock return volatility can be reproduced. While most of the research on stock return volatility is empirical, this paper provides a theoretical framework that is able to reproduce simultaneously the cross section and time series stylized facts concerning stock returns and their volatility. In contrast to the existing theoretical literature related to stock return volatility, I don't impose persistence or regimes in any of the exogenous state variables or in preferences. Volatility clustering, asymmetry in the stock return-volatility relationship, and pricing of multi-factor volatility components in the cross section all arise endogenously as a consequence of the feedback between the binding of no-default constraints and heterogeneous beliefs. Chapters 2 and 3 explore the implications of differences of opinion across investors in different countries for international asset pricing anomalies. Chapter 2 demonstrates that several international finance "puzzles" can be reproduced by a single risk factor which captures heterogeneous beliefs across international investors. These puzzles include: (i) home equity preference; (ii) the dependence of firm returns on local and foreign factors; (iii) the co-movement of returns and international capital flows; and (iv) abnormal returns around foreign firm cross-listing events in the local market. These are reproduced in a setup with symmetric information and in a perfectly integrated world with multiple countries and independent processes producing the same good. Chapter 3 shows that by extending this framework to multiple goods and correlated production processes; the "forward premium puzzle" arises naturally as a compensation for the heterogeneous expectations about the depreciation of the exchange rate held by international investors. Chapters 2 and 3 propose differences of opinion across international investors as the potential resolution of several international finance `puzzles'. In a globalized world where both capital and information flow freely across countries, this explanation seems more appealing than existing asymmetric information or segmented markets theories aiming to explain international finance puzzles.

Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test : an application to the rate of unemployment

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.

Testing for hysteresis in unemployment in OECD countries: new evidence using stationarity panel tests with breaks

This paper tests hysteresis effects in unemployment using panel data for 19 OECD countries covering the period 1956-2001. The tests exploit the cross-section variations of the series, and additionally, allow for a diferent number of endogenous breakpoints in the unemployment series. The critical values are simulated based on our specific panel sizes and time periods. The findings stress the importance of accounting for exogenous shocks in the series and give support to the natural-rate hypothesis of unemployment for the majority of the countries analyzed

Testing for multicointegration in panel data with common factors

The paper addresses the concept of multicointegration in panel data frame- work. The proposal builds upon the panel data cointegration procedures developed in Pedroni (2004), for which we compute the moments of the parametric statistics. When individuals are either cross-section independent or cross-section dependence can be re- moved by cross-section demeaning, our approach can be applied to the wider framework of mixed I(2) and I(1) stochastic processes analysis. The paper also deals with the issue of cross-section dependence using approximate common factor models. Finite sample performance is investigated through Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we illustrate the use of the procedure investigating inventories, sales and production relationship for a panel of US industries.

New evidence of the real interest rate parity for OECD countries using panel unit root tests with breaks

This paper tests for real interest parity (RIRP) among the nineteen major OECD countries over the period 1978:Q2-1998:Q4. The econometric methods applied consist of combining the use of several unit root or stationarity tests designed for panels valid under cross-section dependence and presence of multiple structural breaks. Our results strongly support the fulfilment of the weak version of the RIRP for the studied period once dependence and structural breaks are accounted for.

Growth, convergence and public investment : a bayesian model averaging approach

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we study the determinants of economic growth among a wide set of potential variables for the Spanish provinces (NUTS3). Among others, we include various types of private, public and human capital in the group of growth factors. Also,we analyse whether Spanish provinces have converged in economic terms in recent decades. Thesecond objective is to obtain cross-section and panel data parameter estimates that are robustto model speci¯cation. For this purpose, we use a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach.Bayesian methodology constructs parameter estimates as a weighted average of linear regression estimates for every possible combination of included variables. The weight of each regression estimate is given by the posterior probability of each model.

Efficient energy transfer from Si clusters to Er3+ in complex silicate glasses

We present an extensive study of the structural and optical emission properties in aluminum silicates and soda-lime silicates codoped with Si nanoclusters (Si-nc) and Er. Si excess of 5 and 15¿at.¿% and Er concentrations ranging from 2×1019 up to 6×1020¿cm¿3 were introduced by ion implantation. Thermal treatments at different temperatures were carried out before and after Er implantation. Structural characterization of the resulting structures was performed to obtain the layer composition and the size distribution of Si clusters. A comprehensive study has been carried out of the light emission as a function of the matrix characteristics, Si and Er contents, excitation wavelength, and power. Er emission at 1540¿nm has been detected in all coimplanted glasses, with similar intensities. We estimated lifetimes ranging from 2.5¿to¿12¿ms (depending on the Er dose and Si excess) and an effective excitation cross section of about 1×10¿17¿cm2 at low fluxes that decreases at high pump power. By quantifying the amount of Er ions excited through Si-nc we find a fraction of 10% of the total Er concentration. Upconversion coefficients of about 3×10¿18¿cm¿3¿s¿1 have been found for soda-lime glasses and one order of magnitude lower in aluminum silicates.

Epitaxial growth of biferroic YMnO3(0001) on platinum electrodes

Epitaxial films of the biferroic YMnO3 (YMO) oxide have been grown on platinum-coated SrTiO3(1 1 1) and Al2O3(0 0 0 1) substrates. The platinum electrodes, (1 1 1) oriented, are templates for the epitaxy of the hexagonal phase of YMO with a (0 0 0 1) out-of-plane orientation, which is of interest as this is the polarization direction of YMO. X-ray diffractometry indicates the presence of two crystal domains, 60° rotated in-plane, in the Pt(1 1 1) layers which subsequently are transferred on the upperlaying YMO. Cross-section analysis by high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) of YMnO3/Pt/SrTiO3(1 1 1) shows high-quality epitaxy and sharp interfaces across the structure in the observed region. We present a detailed study of the epitaxial growth of the hexagonal YMO on the electrodes.