Export of dissolved organic carbon from an upland peatland during storm events: implications for flux estimates

Most of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) exported from catchments is transported during storm events. Accurate assessments of DOC fluxes are essential to understand long-term trends in the transport of DOC from terrestrial to aquatic systems, and also the loss of carbon from peatlands to determine changes in the source/sink status of peatland carbon stores. However, many long-term monitoring programmes collect water samples at a frequency (e.g. weekly/monthly) less than the time period of a typical storm event (typically <1–2 days). As widespread observations in catchments dominated by organo-mineral soils have shown that both concentration and flux of DOC increases during storm events, lower frequency monitoring could result in substantial underestimation of DOC flux as the most dynamic periods of transport are missed. However, our intensive monitoring study in a UK upland peatland catchment showed a contrasting response to these previous studies. Our results showed that (i) DOC concentrations decreased during autumn storm events and showed a poor relationship with flow during other seasons; and that (ii) this decrease in concentrations during autumn storms caused DOC flux estimates based on weekly monitoring data to be over-estimated, rather than under-estimated, because of over rather than under estimation of the flow-weighted mean concentration used in flux calculations. However, as DOC flux is ultimately controlled by discharge volume, and therefore rainfall, and the magnitude of change in discharge was greater than the magnitude of decline in concentrations, DOC flux increased during individual storm events. The implications for long-term DOC trends are therefore contradictory, as increased rainfall could increase flux but cause an overall decrease in DOC concentrations from peatland streams. Care needs to be taken when interpreting long-term trends in DOC flux rather than concentration; as flux is calculated from discharge estimates, and discharge is controlled by rainfall, DOC flux and rainfall/discharge will always be well correlated.

Achieving whole-life value: The challenges of service-led construction

Major construction clients are increasingly looking to procure built facilities on the basis of added value, rather than capital cost. Recent advances in the procurement of construction projects have emphasised a whole-life value approach to meeting the client’s objectives, with strategies put in place to encourage long-term commitment and through-life service provision. Construction firms are therefore increasingly required to take on responsibility for the operation and maintenance of the construction project on the client’s behalf - with the emphasis on value and service. This inevitably throws up a host of challenges, not the least of which is the need for construction firms to manage and accommodate the new emphasis on service. Indeed, these ‘service-led’ projects represent a new realm of construction projects where the rationale for the project is driven by client’s objectives with some aspect of service provision. This vision of downstream service delivery increases the number of stakeholders, adds to project complexity and challenges deeply-ingrained working practices. Ultimately it presents a major challenge for the construction sector. This paper sets out to unravel some of the many implications that this change brings with it. It draws upon ongoing research investigating how construction firms can adapt to a more service-orientated built environment and add value in project-based environments. The conclusions lay bare the challenges that firms face when trying to compete on the basis of added-value and service delivery. In particular, how it affects deeply-ingrained working practices and established relationships in the sector.

Interior Life

Interior Life was curated by Tim Renshaw, Mary Maclean and Bernice Donszelmann who together form ‘Outside Architecture’. The aim of this project was to argue that interior space should not be negatively defined as a retreat from the public realm. Instead, following the thought of the philosopher Peter Slotterdijk, interior space was proposed as a human need. The five artists selected by ‘Outside Architecture’ each visualized this need differently. A contention here was that interiors give rise to a multiplicity of experiences that potentially change the way we dwell in contemporary man-made space. This contention was primarily figured in relation to the materiality of contemporary interiors. Each gave attention to the effects of contemporary materials and surfaces and each considered that these forms produce new modes of sensing and immersion in a place. The exhibition included two talks by the members of ‘Outside Architecture. The project was supported by an Arts Council of England grant of £6,323 www.ucreative.ac.uk/galleries

Model-based life cycle cost and assessment tool for sustainable building design decision

There is a growing concern in reducing greenhouse gas emissions all over the world. The U.K. has set 34% target reduction of emission before 2020 and 80% before 2050 compared to 1990 recently in Post Copenhagen Report on Climate Change. In practise, Life Cycle Cost (LCC) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) tools have been introduced to construction industry in order to achieve this such as. However, there is clear a disconnection between costs and environmental impacts over the life cycle of a built asset when using these two tools. Besides, the changes in Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) lead to a change in the way information is represented, in particular, information is being fed more easily and distributed more quickly to different stakeholders by the use of tool such as the Building Information Modelling (BIM), with little consideration on incorporating LCC and LCA and their maximised usage within the BIM environment. The aim of this paper is to propose the development of a model-based LCC and LCA tool in order to provide sustainable building design decisions for clients, architects and quantity surveyors, by then an optimal investment decision can be made by studying the trade-off between costs and environmental impacts. An application framework is also proposed finally as the future work that shows how the proposed model can be incorporated into the BIM environment in practise.

Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change

Increased tidal levels and storm surges related to climate change are projected to result in extremely adverse effects on coastal regions. Predictions of such extreme and small-scale events, however, are exceedingly challenging, even for relatively short time horizons. Here we use data from observations, ERA-40 reanalysis, climate scenario simulations, and a simple feature model to find that the frequency of extreme storm surge events affecting Venice is projected to decrease by about 30% by the end of the twenty-first century. In addition, through a trend assessment based on tidal observations we found a reduction in extreme tidal levels. Extrapolating the current +17 cm/century sea level trend, our results suggest that the frequency of extreme tides in Venice might largely remain unaltered under the projected twenty-first century climate simulations.

Secondary uranium mineralization in southern Finland and its relationship to recent glacial events

Uranium series dating has been carried out on secondary uranyl silicate minerals formed during sub-glacial and post-glacial weathering of Proterozoic uraninite ores in south west Finland. The samples were obtained from two sites adjacent to the Salpauselkä III ice marginal formation and cover a range of depths, from the surface to more than 60 m. Measured ages fall into three distinct groups, 70–100 ka, 28–36 ka and < 2500 yr. The youngest set is associated with surface exposures and the crystals display clear evidence of re-working. The most likely trigger for uranium release at depths below the surface weathering zone is intrusion of oxidising glacial melt water. The latter is often characterised by very high discharge rates along channels, which close once the overpressure generated at the ice margin is released. There is excellent correspondence between the two Finnish sites and published data for similar deposits over a large area of southern and central Sweden. None of the seventy samples analysed gave a U–Th age between 40 and 70 ka; a second hiatus is apparent at 20 ka, coinciding with the Last Glacial Maximum. Thus, the process responsible for uranyl silicate formation was halted for significant periods, owing to a change in geochemical conditions or the hydrogeological regime. These data support the presence of interstadial conditions during the Early and Middle Weichselian since in the absence of major climatic perturbations the uranium phases at depth are stable. When viewed in conjunction with proxy data from mammoth remains it would appear that the region was ice-free prior to the Last Glacial Maximum.

Predicting space climate change

The recent decline in the open magnetic flux of the Sun heralds the end of the Grand Solar Maximum (GSM) that has persisted throughout the space age, during which the largest‐fluence Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events have been rare and Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) fluxes have been relatively low. In the absence of a predictive model of the solar dynamo, we here make analogue forecasts by studying past variations of solar activity in order to evaluate how long‐term change in space climate may influence the hazardous energetic particle environment of the Earth in the future. We predict the probable future variations in GCR flux, near‐Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), sunspot number, and the probability of large SEP events, all deduced from cosmogenic isotope abundance changes following 24 GSMs in a 9300‐year record.

Case study on the whole life carbon cycle in buildings

Global temperatures are expected to rise by between 1.1 and 6.4oC this century, depending, to a large extent, on the amount of carbon we emit to the atmosphere from now onwards. This warming is expected to have very negative effects on many peoples and ecosystems and, therefore, minimising our carbon emissions is a priority. Buildings are estimated to be responsible for around 50% of carbon emissions in the UK. Potential reductions involve both operational emissions, produced during use, and embodied emissions, produced during manufacture of materials and components, and during construction, refurbishments and demolition. To date the major effort has focused on reducing the, apparently, larger operational element, which is more readily quantifiable and reduction measures are relatively straightforward to identify and implement. Various studies have compared the magnitude of embodied and operational emissions, but have shown considerable variation in the relative values. This illustrates the difficulties in quantifying embodied, as it requires a detailed knowledge of the processes involved in the different life cycle phases, and requires the use of consistent system boundaries. However, other studies have established the interaction between operational and embodied, which demonstrates the importance of considering both elements together in order to maximise potential reductions. This is borne out in statements from both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and The Low Carbon Construction Innovation and Growth Team of the UK Government. In terms of meeting the 2020 and 2050 timeframes for carbon reductions it appears to be equally, if not more, important to consider early embodied carbon reductions, rather than just future operational reductions. Future decarbonisation of energy supply and more efficient lighting and M&E equipment installed in future refits is likely to significantly reduce operational emissions, lending further weight to this argument. A method of discounting to evaluate the present value of future carbon emissions would allow more realistic comparisons to be made on the relative importance of the embodied and operational elements. This paper describes the results of case studies on carbon emissions over the whole lifecycle of three buildings in the UK, compares four available software packages for determining embodied carbon and suggests a method of carbon discounting to obtain present values for future emissions. These form the initial stages of a research project aimed at producing information on embodied carbon for different types of building, components and forms of construction, in a simplified form, which can be readily used by building designers in optimising building design in terms of minimising overall carbon emissions. Keywords: Embodied carbon; carbon emission; building; operational carbon.

Climate change and the risks associated with delayed breeding in a tropical wild bird population

There is growing evidence of changes in the timing of important ecological events, such as flowering in plants and reproduction in animals, in response to climate change, with implications for population decline and biodiversity loss. Recent work has shown that the timing of breeding in wild birds is changing in response to climate change partly because individuals are remarkably flexible in their timing of breeding. Despite this work, our understanding of these processes in wild populations remains very limited and biased towards species from temperate regions. Here, we report the response to changing climate in a tropical wild bird population using a long-term dataset on a formerly critically endangered island endemic, the Mauritius kestrel. We show that the frequency of spring rainfall affects the timing of breeding, with birds breeding later in wetter springs. Delays in breeding have consequences in terms of reduced reproductive success as birds get exposed to risks associated with adverse climatic conditions later on in the breeding season, which reduce nesting success. These results, combined with the fact that frequency of spring rainfall has increased by about 60 per cent in our study area since 1962, imply that climate change is exposing birds to the stochastic risks of late reproduction by causing them to start breeding relatively late in the season.

Extreme precipitation and climate change: the potential impacts on flooding

Recent extreme precipitation events have caused widespread flooding to the UK. The prediction of the intensity of such events in a warmer climate is important for adaption strategies against future events. This study highlights the importance of using high-resolution models to predict these events. Using a high-resolution GCM it is shown that extreme precipitation events are predicted to become more frequent under the IPCC A1B warming scenario. It is also shown that current forecast models have difficulty in predicting the location, timing and intensity of small scale precipitation in areas with significant orography.

Future change of precipitation extremes in Europe: intercomparison of scenarios from regional climate mode

An analysis of the climate of precipitation extremes as simulated by six European regional climate models (RCMs) is undertaken in order to describe/quantify future changes and to examine/interpret differences between models. Each model has adopted boundary conditions from the same ensemble of global climate model integrations for present (1961–1990) and future (2071–2100) climate under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 emission scenario. The main diagnostics are multiyear return values of daily precipitation totals estimated from extreme value analysis. An evaluation of the RCMs against observations in the Alpine region shows that model biases for extremes are comparable to or even smaller than those for wet day intensity and mean precipitation. In winter, precipitation extremes tend to increase north of about 45°N, while there is an insignificant change or a decrease to the south. In northern Europe the 20-year return value of future climate corresponds to the 40- to 100-year return value of present climate. There is a good agreement between the RCMs, and the simulated change is similar to a scaling of present-day extremes by the change in average events. In contrast, there are large model differences in summer when RCM formulation contributes significantly to scenario uncertainty. The model differences are well explained by differences in the precipitation frequency and intensity process, but in all models, extremes increase more or decrease less than would be expected from the scaling of present-day extremes. There is evidence for a component of the change that affects extremes specifically and is consistent between models despite the large variation in the total response.

A conceptual life event framework for government-to-citizen electronic service provision

In recent years, life event approach has been widely used by governments all over the world for designing and providing web services to citizens through their e-government portals. Despite the wide usage of this approach, there is still a challenge of how to use this approach to design e-government portals in order to automatically provide personalised services to citizens. We propose a conceptual framework for e-government service provision based on life event approach and the use of citizen profile to capture the citizen needs, since the process of finding Web services from a government-to-citizen (G2C) system involves understanding the citizens’ needs and demands, selecting the relevant services, and delivering services that matches the requirements. The proposed framework that incorporates the citizen profile is based on three components that complement each other, namely, anticipatory life events, non-anticipatory life events and recurring services.

A framework for agricultural adaptation to climate change in Southern Nigeria

The agricultural sector which contributes between 20-50% of gross domestic product in Africa and employs about 60% of the population is greatly affected by climate change impacts. Agricultural productivity and food prices are expected to rise due to this impact thereby worsening the food insecurity and poor nutritional health conditions in the continent. Incidentally, the capacity in the continent to adapt is very low. Addressing these challenges will therefore require a holistic and integrated adaptation framework hence this study. A total of 360 respondents selected through a multi-stage random sampling technique participated in the study that took place in Southern Nigeria from 2008-2011. Results showed that majority of respondents (84%) were aware that some climate change characteristics such as uncertainties at the onset of farming season, extreme weather events including flooding and droughts, pests, diseases, weed infestation, and land degradation have all been on the increase. The most significant effects of climate change that manifested in the area were declining soil fertility and weed infestation. Some of the adaptation strategies adopted by farmers include increased weeding, changing the timing of farm operations, and processing of crops to reduce post-harvest losses. Although majority of respondents were aware of government policies aimed at protecting the environment, most of them agreed that these policies were not being effectively implemented. A mutually inclusive framework comprising of both indigenous and modern techniques, processes, practices and technologies was then developed from the study in order to guide farmers in adapting to climate change effects/impacts.

Towards a life-event oriented G2C e-service provision: the NoBLE Framework

One of the primary features of modern government-to-citizen (G2C) service provision is the ability to offer a citizen-centric view of the e-government portal. Life-event approach is one of the most widely adopted paradigms supporting the idea of solving a complex event in a citizen’s life through a single service provision. Several studies have used this approach to design e-government portals. However, they were limited in terms of use and scalability. There were no mechanisms that show how to specify a life-event for structuring public e-services, or how to systematically match life-events with these services taking into consideration the citizen needs. We introduce the NOrm-Based Life-Event (NoBLE) framework for G2C e-service provision with a set of mechanisms as a guide for designing active life-event oriented e-government portals.