Multilevel Latent Class Models with Dirichlet Mixing Distribution

Latent class analysis (LCA) and latent class regression (LCR) are widely used for modeling multivariate categorical outcomes in social sciences and biomedical studies. Standard analyses assume data of different respondents to be mutually independent, excluding application of the methods to familial and other designs in which participants are clustered. In this paper, we develop multilevel latent class model, in which subpopulation mixing probabilities are treated as random effects that vary among clusters according to a common Dirichlet distribution. We apply the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for model fitting by maximum likelihood (ML). This approach works well, but is computationally intensive when either the number of classes or the cluster size is large. We propose a maximum pairwise likelihood (MPL) approach via a modified EM algorithm for this case. We also show that a simple latent class analysis, combined with robust standard errors, provides another consistent, robust, but less efficient inferential procedure. Simulation studies suggest that the three methods work well in finite samples, and that the MPL estimates often enjoy comparable precision as the ML estimates. We apply our methods to the analysis of comorbid symptoms in the Obsessive Compulsive Disorder study. Our models' random effects structure has more straightforward interpretation than those of competing methods, thus should usefully augment tools available for latent class analysis of multilevel data.

Detection of latent tuberculosis in immunosuppressed patients with autoimmune diseases: performance of a Mycobacterium tuberculosis antigen-specific interferon gamma assay

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the performance of a new M. tuberculosis-specific interferon gamma (IFNgamma) assay in patients with chronic inflammatory diseases who receive immunosuppressive drugs, including tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha) inhibitors. METHODS: Cellular immune responses to the M. tuberculosis-specific antigens ESAT-6, CFP-10, TB7.7 were prospectively studied in 142 consecutive patients treated for inflammatory rheumatic conditions. Results were compared with tuberculin skin tests (TSTs). Association of both tests with risk factors for latent M. tuberculosis infection (LTBI) and BCG vaccination were determined and the influence of TNFalpha inhibitors, corticosteroids, and disease modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) on antigen-specific and mitogen-induced IFNgamma secretion was analysed. RESULTS: 126/142 (89%) patients received immunosuppressive therapy. The IFNgamma assay was more closely associated with the presence of risk factors (odds ratio (OR) = 23.8 (95% CI 5.14 to 110) vs OR = 2.77 (1.22 to 6.27), respectively; p = 0.009), but less associated with BCG vaccination than the TST (OR = 0.47 (95% CI 0.15 to 1.47) vs OR = 2.44 (0.74 to (8.01), respectively; p = 0.025). Agreement between the IFNgamma assay and TST results was low (kappa = 0.17; 95% CI 0.02 to 0.32). The odds for a positive IFNgamma assay strongly increased with increasing prognostic relevance of LTBI risk factors. Neither corticosteroids nor conventional DMARDs significantly affected IFNgamma responses, but the odds for a positive IFNgamma assay were decreased in patients treated with TNFalpha inhibitors (OR = 0.21 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.63), respectively; p = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that the performance of the M. tuberculosis antigen-specific IFNgamma ELISA is better than the classic TST for detection of LTBI in patients receiving immunosuppressive therapy for treatment of systemic autoimmune disorders.

Effects of butorphanol on the withdrawal reflex using threshold, suprathreshold and repeated subthreshold electrical stimuli in conscious horses

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effects of a single intravenous dose of butorphanol (0.1 mg kg(-1)) on the nociceptive withdrawal reflex (NWR) using threshold, suprathreshold and repeated subthreshold electrical stimuli in conscious horses. STUDY DESIGN: 'Unblinded', prospective experimental study. ANIMALS: Ten adult horses, five geldings and five mares, mean body mass 517 kg (range 487-569 kg). METHODS: The NWR was elicited using single transcutaneous electrical stimulation of the palmar digital nerve. Repeated stimulations were applied to evoke temporal summation. Surface electromyography was performed to record and quantify the responses of the common digital extensor muscle to stimulation and behavioural reactions were scored. Before butorphanol administration and at fixed time points up to 2 hours after injection, baseline threshold intensities for NWR and temporal summation were defined and single suprathreshold stimulations applied. Friedman repeated-measures analysis of variance on ranks and Wilcoxon signed-rank test were used with the Student-Newman-Keul's method applied post-hoc. The level of significance (alpha) was set at 0.05. RESULTS: Butorphanol did not modify either the thresholds for NWR and temporal summation or the reaction scores, but the difference between suprathreshold and threshold reflex amplitudes was reduced when single stimulation was applied. Upon repeated stimulation after butorphanol administration, a significant decrease in the relative amplitude was calculated for both the 30-80 and the 80-200 millisecond intervals after each stimulus, and for the whole post-stimulation interval in the right thoracic limb. In the left thoracic limb a decrease in the relative amplitude was found only in the 30-80 millisecond epoch. CONCLUSION: Butorphanol at 0.1 mg kg(-1) has no direct action on spinal Adelta nociceptive activity but may have some supraspinal effects that reduce the gain of the nociceptive system. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Butorphanol has minimal effect on sharp immediate Adelta-mediated pain but may alter spinal processing and decrease the delayed sensations of pain.

Meperidine and skin surface warming additively reduce the shivering threshold: a volunteer study

INTRODUCTION: Mild therapeutic hypothermia has been shown to improve outcome for patients after cardiac arrest and may be beneficial for ischaemic stroke and myocardial ischaemia patients. However, in the awake patient, even a small decrease of core temperature provokes vigorous autonomic reactions-vasoconstriction and shivering-which both inhibit efficient core cooling. Meperidine and skin warming each linearly lower vasoconstriction and shivering thresholds. We tested whether a combination of skin warming and a medium dose of meperidine additively would reduce the shivering threshold to below 34 degrees C without producing significant sedation or respiratory depression. METHODS: Eight healthy volunteers participated on four study days: (1) control, (2) skin warming (with forced air and warming mattress), (3) meperidine (target plasma level: 0.9 mug/ml), and (4) skin warming plus meperidine (target plasma level: 0.9 mug/ml). Volunteers were cooled with 4 degrees C cold Ringer lactate infused over a central venous catheter (rate asymptotically equal to 2.4 degrees C/hour core temperature drop). Shivering threshold was identified by an increase of oxygen consumption (+20% of baseline). Sedation was assessed with the Observer's Assessment of Alertness/Sedation scale. RESULTS: Control shivering threshold was 35.5 degrees C +/- 0.2 degrees C. Skin warming reduced the shivering threshold to 34.9 degrees C +/- 0.5 degrees C (p = 0.01). Meperidine reduced the shivering threshold to 34.2 degrees C +/- 0.3 degrees C (p < 0.01). The combination of meperidine and skin warming reduced the shivering threshold to 33.8 degrees C +/- 0.2 degrees C (p < 0.01). There were no synergistic or antagonistic effects of meperidine and skin warming (p = 0.59). Only very mild sedation occurred on meperidine days. CONCLUSION: A combination of meperidine and skin surface warming reduced the shivering threshold to 33.8 degrees C +/- 0.2 degrees C via an additive interaction and produced only very mild sedation and no respiratory toxicity.

Lipid-poor adenomas on unenhanced CT: does histogram analysis increase sensitivity compared with a mean attenuation threshold?

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of our study was to evaluate the efficacy of CT histogram analysis for further characterization of lipid-poor adenomas on unenhanced CT. MATERIALS AND METHODS: One hundred thirty-two adrenal nodules were identified in 104 patients with lung cancer who underwent PET/CT. Sixty-five nodules were classified as lipid-rich adenomas if they had an unenhanced CT attenuation of less than or equal to 10 H. Thirty-one masses were classified as lipid-poor adenomas if they had an unenhanced CT attenuation greater than 10 H and stability for more than 1 year. Thirty-six masses were classified as lung cancer metastases if they showed rapid growth in 1 year (n = 27) or were biopsy-proven (n = 9). Histogram analysis was performed for all lesions to provide the mean attenuation value and percentage of negative pixels. RESULTS: All lipid-rich adenomas had more than 10% negative pixels; 51.6% of lipid-poor adenomas had more than 10% negative pixels and would have been classified as indeterminate nodules on the basis of mean attenuation alone. None of the metastases had more than 10% negative pixels. Using an unenhanced CT mean attenuation threshold of less than 10 H yielded a sensitivity of 68% and specificity of 100% for the diagnosis of an adenoma. Using an unenhanced CT threshold of more than 10% negative pixels yielded a sensitivity of 84% and specificity of 100% for the diagnosis of an adenoma. CONCLUSION: CT histogram analysis is superior to mean CT attenuation analysis for the evaluation of adrenal nodules and may help decrease referrals for additional imaging or biopsy.

Psychologic factors are related to some sensory pain thresholds but not nociceptive flexion reflex threshold in chronic whiplash

OBJECTIVES: Sensory hypersensitivity, central hyperexcitability [lowered nociceptive flexion reflex (NFR) thresholds], and psychologic distress are features of chronic whiplash. However, relationships between these substrates are not clear. This study tested the hypothesis that psychologic distress and catastrophization are correlated with sensory hypersensitivity and NFR responses in chronic whiplash. METHODS: Pressure and thermal pain thresholds (mean values across 3 body sites), NFR threshold, and pain at threshold Visual Analog Scale were measured in 30 participants with chronic whiplash and 30 asymptomatic controls. Pain and disability levels Neck Disability Index, psychologic distress (GHQ-28), and catastrophization (PCS) were also measured in the whiplash group. RESULTS: Whiplash injured participants demonstrated lowered pain thresholds to pressure and cold (P<0.05); lowered NFR thresholds (P=0.003), and demonstrated above threshold levels of psychologic distress (GHQ-28) and levels of catastrophization comparable with other musculoskeletal conditions. There were no group differences for heat pain thresholds or pain at NFR threshold. In the whiplash group, PCS scores correlated moderately with cold pain threshold (r=0.51, P=0.01). In contrast, there were no significant correlations between GHQ-28 scores and pain threshold measures or between psychologic factors and NFR responses in whiplash participants. There were no significant correlations between psychologic factors and pain thresholds or NFR responses in controls. DISCUSSION: We have demonstrated that psychologic factors have some association with sensory hypersensitivity (cold pain threshold measures) in chronic whiplash but do not seem to influence spinal cord excitability. This suggests that psychologic disorders are important, but not the only, determinants of central hypersensitivity in whiplash patients.

Methodological approach to the first and second lactate threshold in incremental cardiopulmonary exercise testing

Determination of an 'anaerobic threshold' plays an important role in the appreciation of an incremental cardiopulmonary exercise test and describes prominent changes of blood lactate accumulation with increasing workload. Two lactate thresholds are discerned during cardiopulmonary exercise testing and used for physical fitness estimation or training prescription. A multitude of different terms are, however, found in the literature describing the two thresholds. Furthermore, the term 'anaerobic threshold' is synonymously used for both, the 'first' and the 'second' lactate threshold, bearing a great potential of confusion. The aim of this review is therefore to order terms, present threshold concepts, and describe methods for lactate threshold determination using a three-phase model with reference to the historical and physiological background to facilitate the practical application of the term 'anaerobic threshold'.

Distinguishing phenotypes of childhood wheeze and cough using latent class analysis

Airway disease in childhood comprises a heterogeneous group of disorders. Attempts to distinguish different phenotypes have generally considered few disease dimensions. The present study examines phenotypes of childhood wheeze and chronic cough, by fitting a statistical model to data representing multiple disease dimensions. From a population-based, longitudinal cohort study of 1,650 preschool children, 319 with parent-reported wheeze or chronic cough were included. Phenotypes were identified by latent class analysis using data on symptoms, skin-prick tests, lung function and airway responsiveness from two preschool surveys. These phenotypes were then compared with respect to outcome at school age. The model distinguished three phenotypes of wheeze and two phenotypes of chronic cough. Subsequent wheeze, chronic cough and inhaler use at school age differed clearly between the five phenotypes. The wheeze phenotypes shared features with previously described entities and partly reconciled discrepancies between existing sets of phenotype labels. This novel, multidimensional approach has the potential to identify clinically relevant phenotypes, not only in paediatric disorders but also in adult obstructive airway diseases, where phenotype definition is an equally important issue.

Computational simulations of latent heat thermal energy storage systems - with innovative and first-principles based simulation for the underlying unsteady melting (and solidification) processes

This thesis develops an effective modeling and simulation procedure for a specific thermal energy storage system commonly used and recommended for various applications (such as an auxiliary energy storage system for solar heating based Rankine cycle power plant). This thermal energy storage system transfers heat from a hot fluid (termed as heat transfer fluid - HTF) flowing in a tube to the surrounding phase change material (PCM). Through unsteady melting or freezing process, the PCM absorbs or releases thermal energy in the form of latent heat. Both scientific and engineering information is obtained by the proposed first-principle based modeling and simulation procedure. On the scientific side, the approach accurately tracks the moving melt-front (modeled as a sharp liquid-solid interface) and provides all necessary information about the time-varying heat-flow rates, temperature profiles, stored thermal energy, etc. On the engineering side, the proposed approach is unique in its ability to accurately solve – both individually and collectively – all the conjugate unsteady heat transfer problems for each of the components of the thermal storage system. This yields critical system level information on the various time-varying effectiveness and efficiency parameters for the thermal storage system.

Are full or empty beer bottles sturdier and does their fracture-threshold suffice to break the human skull?

Beer bottles are often used in physical disputes. If the bottles break, they may give rise to sharp trauma. However, if the bottles remain intact, they may cause blunt injuries. In order to investigate whether full or empty standard half-litre beer bottles are sturdier and if the necessary breaking energy surpasses the minimum fracture-threshold of the human skull, we tested the fracture properties of such beer bottles in a drop-tower. Full bottles broke at 30 J impact energy, empty bottles at 40 J. These breaking energies surpass the minimum fracture-threshold of the human neurocranium. Beer bottles may therefore fracture the human skull and therefore serve as dangerous instruments in a physical dispute.