Evaluating the Small Population Paradigm for Rare Large-Bodied Woodpeckers, with Implications for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker

Six large-bodied, ≥ 120 g, woodpecker species are listed as near-threatened to critically endangered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The small population paradigm assumes that these populations are likely to become extinct without an increase in numbers, but the combined influences of initial population size and demographic rates, i.e., annual adult survival and fecundity, may drive population persistence for these species. We applied a stochastic, stage-based single-population model to available demographic rates for Dryocopus and Campephilus woodpeckers. In particular, we determined the change in predicted extinction rate, i.e., proportion of simulated populations that went extinct within 100 yr, to concomitant changes in six input parameters. To our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate the combined importance of initial population size and demographic rates for the persistence of large-bodied woodpeckers. Under a worse-case scenario, the median time to extinction was 7 yr (range: 1–32). Across the combinations of other input values, increasing initial population size by one female induced, on average, 0.4%–3.2% (range: 0%–28%) reduction in extinction rate. Increasing initial population size from 5–30 resulted in extinction rates < 0.05 under limited conditions: (1) all input values were intermediate, or (2) Allee effect present and annual adult survival ≥ 0.8. Based on our model, these species can persist as rare, as few as five females, and thus difficult-to-detect, populations provided they maintain ≥ 1.1 recruited females annually per adult female and an annual adult survival rate ≥ 0.8. Athough a demographic-based population viability analysis (PVA) is useful to predict how extinction rate changes across scenarios for life-history attributes, the next step for modeling these populations should incorporate more easily acquired data on changes in patch occupancy to make predictions about patch colonization and extinction rates.

Mersenne numbers

These notes have been issued on a small scale in 1983 and 1987 and on request at other times. This issue follows two items of news. First, WaIter Colquitt and Luther Welsh found the 'missed' Mersenne prime M110503 and advanced the frontier of complete Mp-testing to 139,267. In so doing, they terminated Slowinski's significant string of four consecutive Mersenne primes. Secondly, a team of five established a non-Mersenne number as the largest known prime. This result terminated the 1952-89 reign of Mersenne primes. All the original Mersenne numbers with p < 258 were factorised some time ago. The Sandia Laboratories team of Davis, Holdridge & Simmons with some little assistance from a CRAY machine cracked M211 in 1983 and M251 in 1984. They contributed their results to the 'Cunningham Project', care of Sam Wagstaff. That project is now moving apace thanks to developments in technology, factorisation and primality testing. New levels of computer power and new computer architectures motivated by the open-ended promise of parallelism are now available. Once again, the suppliers may be offering free buildings with the computer. However, the Sandia '84 CRAY-l implementation of the quadratic-sieve method is now outpowered by the number-field sieve technique. This is deployed on either purpose-built hardware or large syndicates, even distributed world-wide, of collaborating standard processors. New factorisation techniques of both special and general applicability have been defined and deployed. The elliptic-curve method finds large factors with helpful properties while the number-field sieve approach is breaking down composites with over one hundred digits. The material is updated on an occasional basis to follow the latest developments in primality-testing large Mp and factorising smaller Mp; all dates derive from the published literature or referenced private communications. Minor corrections, additions and changes merely advance the issue number after the decimal point. The reader is invited to report any errors and omissions that have escaped the proof-reading, to answer the unresolved questions noted and to suggest additional material associated with this subject.

Estimating numbers of infectious units from serial dilution assays

The paper concerns the design and analysis of serial dilution assays to estimate the infectivity of a sample of tissue when it is assumed that the sample contains a finite number of indivisible infectious units such that a subsample will be infectious if it contains one or more of these units. The aim of the study is to estimate the number of infectious units in the original sample. The standard approach to the analysis of data from such a study is based on the assumption of independence of aliquots both at the same dilution level and at different dilution levels, so that the numbers of infectious units in the aliquots follow independent Poisson distributions. An alternative approach is based on calculation of the expected value of the total number of samples tested that are not infectious. We derive the likelihood for the data on the basis of the discrete number of infectious units, enabling calculation of the maximum likelihood estimate and likelihood-based confidence intervals. We use the exact probabilities that are obtained to compare the maximum likelihood estimate with those given by the other methods in terms of bias and standard error and to compare the coverage of the confidence intervals. We show that the methods have very similar properties and conclude that for practical use the method that is based on the Poisson assumption is to be recommended, since it can be implemented by using standard statistical software. Finally we consider the design of serial dilution assays, concluding that it is important that neither the dilution factor nor the number of samples that remain untested should be too large.

Diversification of a large genus in a continental biodiversity hotspot: temporal and spatial origin of Muraltia (Polygalaceae) in the Cape of South Africa

Phylogenetic relationships in the largely South African genus Muraltia (Polygalaceae) are assessed based on DNA sequence data (nuclear ribosomal ITS, plastid atpB-rbcL spacer, trnL intron, and trnL-F spacer) for 73 of the 117 currently recognized species in the genus. The previously recognised subgenus Muraltia is monophyletic, but the South African endemic genus Nylandtia is embedded in Muraltia subgenus Psiloclada. Subgenus Muraltia is found to be sister to subgenus Psiloclada. Estimates show the beginning of diversification of the two subgenera in the early Miocene (Psiloclada, 19.3+/-3.4 Ma; Muraltia, 21.0+/-3.5 Ma) pre-dating the establishment of the Benguela current (intermittent in the middle to late Oligocene and markedly intensifying in the late Miocene), and summer-dry climate in the Cape region. However, the later increase in species numbers is contemporaneous with these climatic phenomena. Results of dispersal-vicariance analyses indicate that major clades in Muraltia diversified from the southwestern and northwestern Cape, where most of the species are found today.

Cyclones causing wind storms in the Mediterranean: characteristics, trends and links to large-scale patterns

A climatology of cyclones with a focus on their relation to wind storm tracks in the Mediterranean region (MR) is presented. Trends in the frequency of cyclones and wind storms, as well as variations associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic/West Russian (EAWR) and the Scandinavian variability pattern (SCAND) are discussed. The study is based on the ERA40 reanalysis dataset. Wind storm tracks are identified by tracking clusters of adjacent grid boxes characterised by extremely high local wind speeds. The wind track is assigned to a cyclone track independently identified with an objective scheme. Areas with high wind activity – quantified by extreme wind tracks – are typically located south of the Golf of Genoa, south of Cyprus, southeast of Sicily and west of the Iberian Peninsula. About 69% of the wind storms are caused by cyclones located in the Mediterranean region, while the remaining 31% can be attributed to North Atlantic or Northern European cyclones. The North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern and the Scandinavian pattern all influence the amount and spatial distribution of wind inducing cyclones and wind events in the MR. The strongest signals exist for the NAO and the EAWR pattern, which are both associated with an increase in the number of organised strong wind events in the eastern MR during their positive phase. On the other hand, the storm numbers decrease over the western MR for the positive phase of the NAO and over the central MR during the positive phase of the EAWR pattern. The positive phase of the Scandinavian pattern is associated with a decrease in the number of winter wind storms over most of the MR. A third of the trends in the number of wind storms and wind producing cyclones during the winter season of the ERA40 period may be attributed to the variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

An improved methodology for the recovery of Zea mays and other large crop pollen, with implications for environmental archaeology in the Neotropics

We present a simple sieving methodology to aid the recovery of large cultigen pollen grains, such as maize (Zea mays L.), manioc (Manihot esculenta Crantz), and sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas L.), among others, for the detection of food production using fossil pollen analysis of lake sediments in the tropical Americas. The new methodology was tested on three large study lakes located next to known and/or excavated pre-Columbian archaeological sites in South and Central America. Five paired samples, one treated by sieving, the other prepared using standard methodology, were compared for each of the three sites. Using the new methodology, chemically digested sediment samples were passed through a 53 µm sieve, and the residue was retained, mounted in silicone oil, and counted for large cultigen pollen grains. The filtrate was mounted and analysed for pollen according to standard palynological procedures. Zea mays (L.) was recovered from the sediments of all three study lakes using the sieving technique, where no cultigen pollen had been previously recorded using the standard methodology. Confidence intervals demonstrate there is no significant difference in pollen assemblages between the sieved versus unsieved samples. Equal numbers of exotic Lycopodium spores added to both the filtrate and residue of the sieved samples allow for direct comparison of cultigen pollen abundance with the standard terrestrial pollen count. Our technique enables the isolation and rapid scanning for maize and other cultigen pollen in lake sediments, which, in conjunction with charcoal and pollen records, is key to determining land-use patterns and the environmental impact of pre-Columbian societies.

Large nuclear vacuoles are indicative of abnormal chromatin packaging in human spermatozoa

The aim of this investigation was to determine the presence of abnormal sperm chromatin packaging in spermatozoa with large nuclear vacuoles (LNV) selected via high magnification by analysing the pattern of chromomycin A3 (CMA3) staining. A prospective observational study was designed to analyse semen samples obtained from 66 men undergoing infertility diagnosis and treatment. The numbers of cells with normal (dull yellow staining of the sperm head/CMA3-negative) and abnormal (bright yellow fluorescence of the sperm head/CMA3-positive) chromatin packaging were determined on slides with normal and LNV spermatozoa. The presence of bright yellow fluorescence (CMA3-positive) was significantly higher (p < 0.0001) in spermatozoa with LNV than in normal spermatozoa (719/1351; 53.2% vs. 337/835; 40.3%, respectively), reflecting a higher percentage of abnormal chromatin packaging in spermatozoa with large LNV. Our data support the hypothesis that the presence of LNV reflects the presence of abnormal chromatin packaging, which may facilitate sperm DNA damage. As sperm nuclear vacuoles are evaluated more precisely at high magnifications using motile sperm organelle morphology examination (MSOME), the present results support the use of high-magnification sperm selection for intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI).

Geotechnical and structural behavior of the railroad track in large-scale apparatus

This paper analyses the static and dynamic behavior of the railroad track model in laboratory. Measurements of stresses and strains on a large-scale railroad track apparatus were studied. The model includes: compacted soil, representing the final layers of platform, ballast layer, and ties (steel, wooden, and pre-stressed concrete). The soil and soil ballast interface were instrumented with pneumatic stress gauge. Settlement measurement device were positioned at the same levels as the load cells. Loads were applied by hydraulic actuators, statically and dynamically. After the prescribed number of load cycles, in pre-determined intervals, stresses and strains were measured. Observations indicate that stress and strain distributions, transmitted by wooden or steel ties, behave similarly. A more favorable behavior was observed with pre-stressed concrete mono block ties. Non-linear response was observed after a threshold numbers of cycles were surpassed, showing that the strain modulus increases with the numbers of cycles. © 2009 IOS Press.

Organisation and tyrosine hydroxylase and calretinin immunoreactivity in the main olfactory bulb of paca (cuniculus paca): a large caviomorph rodent

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Large distribution and high sequence identity of a Copia-type retrotransposon in angiosperm families

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Large-Scale Population Analysis Challenges the Current Criteria for the Molecular Diagnosis of Fascioscapulohumeral Muscular Dystrophy

Facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy (FSHD) is a common hereditary myopathy causally linked to reduced numbers (<= 8) of 3.3 kilobase D4Z4 tandem repeats at 4q35. However, because individuals carrying D4Z4-reduced alleles and no FSHD and patients with FSHD and no short allele have been observed, additional markers have been proposed to support an FSHD molecular diagnosis. In particular a reduction in the number of D4Z4 elements combined with the 4A(159/161/168)PAS haplotype (which provides the possibility of expressing DUX4) is currently used as the genetic signature uniquely associated with FSHD. Here, we analyzed these DNA elements in more than 800 Italian and Brazilian samples of normal individuals unrelated to any FSHD patients. We find that 3% of healthy subjects carry alleles with a reduced number (4-8) of D4Z4 repeats on chromosome 4q and that one-third of these alleles, 1.3%, occur in combination with the 4A161PAS haplotype. We also systematically characterized the 4q35 haplotype in 253 unrelated FSHD patients. We find that only 127 of them (50.1%) carry alleles with 1-8 D4Z4 repeats associated with 4A161PAS, whereas the remaining FSHD probands carry different haplotypes or alleles with a greater number of D4Z4 repeats. The present study shows that the current genetic signature of FSHD is a common polymorphism and that only half of FSHD probands carry this molecular signature. Our results suggest that the genetic basis of FSHD, which is remarkably heterogeneous, should be revisited, because this has important implications for genetic counseling and prenatal diagnosis of at-risk families.

URANS calculations for smooth circular cylinder flow in a wide range of Reynolds Numbers: solution verification and validation

The flow around circular smooth fixed cylinder in a large range of Reynolds numbers is considered in this paper. In order to investigate this canonical case, we perform CFD calculations and apply verification & validation (V&V) procedures to draw conclusions regarding numerical error and, afterwards, assess the modeling errors and capabilities of this (U)RANS method to solve the problem. Eight Reynolds numbers between Re = 10 and Re 5 x 10(5) will be presented with, at least, four geometrically similar grids and five discretization in time for each case (when unsteady), together with strict control of iterative and round-off errors, allowing a consistent verification analysis with uncertainty estimation. Two-dimensional RANS, steady or unsteady, laminar or turbulent calculations are performed. The original 1994 k - omega SST turbulence model by Menter is used to model turbulence. The validation procedure is performed by comparing the numerical results with an extensive set of experimental results compiled from the literature. [DOI: 10.1115/1.4007571]

Lower numbers of natural killer T cells in HIV-1 and Mycobacterium leprae co-infected patients

Natural killer T (NKT) cells are a heterogeneous population of lymphocytes that recognize antigens presented by CD1d and have attracted attention because of their potential role linking innate and adaptive immune responses. Peripheral NKT cells display a memory-activated phenotype and can rapidly secrete large amounts of pro-inflammatory cytokines upon antigenic activation. In this study, we evaluated NKT cells in the context of patients co-infected with HIV-1 and Mycobacterium leprae. The volunteers were enrolled into four groups: 22 healthy controls, 23 HIV-1-infected patients, 20 patients with leprosy and 17 patients with leprosy and HIV-1-infection. Flow cytometry and ELISPOT assays were performed on peripheral blood mononuclear cells. We demonstrated that patients co-infected with HIV-1 and M.leprae have significantly lower NKT cell frequencies [median 0.022%, interquartile range (IQR): 0.0070.051] in the peripheral blood when compared with healthy subjects (median 0.077%, IQR: 0.0320.405, P < 0.01) or HIV-1 mono-infected patients (median 0.072%, IQR: 0.0300.160, P < 0.05). Also, more NKT cells from co-infected patients secreted interferon-? after stimulation with DimerX, when compared with leprosy mono-infected patients (P = 0.05). These results suggest that NKT cells are decreased in frequency in HIV-1 and M.leprae co-infected patients compared with HIV-1 mono-infected patients alone, but are at a more activated state. Innate immunity in human subjects is strongly influenced by their spectrum of chronic infections, and in HIV-1-infected subjects, a concurrent mycobacterial infection probably hyper-activates and lowers circulating NKT cell numbers.

Intrinsic ordering, combinatorial numbers and reliability engineering

[EN]A new algorithm for evaluating the top event probability of large fault trees (FTs) is presented. This algorithm does not require any previous qualitative analysis of the FT. Indeed, its efficiency is independent of the FT logic, and it only depends on the number n of basic system components and on their failure probabilities. Our method provides exact lower and upper bounds on the top event probability by using new properties of the intrinsic order relation between binary strings. The intrinsic order enables one to select binary n-tuples with large occurrence probabilities without necessity to evaluate them. This drastically reduces the complexity of the problem from exponential (2n binary n-tuples) to linear (n Boolean variables)...

Testing of subgrid scale (SGS) models for large-eddy simulation (LES) of turbulent channel flow

Sub-grid scale (SGS) models are required in order to model the influence of the unresolved small scales on the resolved scales in large-eddy simulations (LES), the flow at the smallest scales of turbulence. In the following work two SGS models are presented and deeply analyzed in terms of accuracy through several LESs with different spatial resolutions, i.e. grid spacings. The first part of this thesis focuses on the basic theory of turbulence, the governing equations of fluid dynamics and their adaptation to LES. Furthermore, two important SGS models are presented: one is the Dynamic eddy-viscosity model (DEVM), developed by \cite{germano1991dynamic}, while the other is the Explicit Algebraic SGS model (EASSM), by \cite{marstorp2009explicit}. In addition, some details about the implementation of the EASSM in a Pseudo-Spectral Navier-Stokes code \cite{chevalier2007simson} are presented. The performance of the two aforementioned models will be investigated in the following chapters, by means of LES of a channel flow, with friction Reynolds numbers $Re_\tau=590$ up to $Re_\tau=5200$, with relatively coarse resolutions. Data from each simulation will be compared to baseline DNS data. Results have shown that, in contrast to the DEVM, the EASSM has promising potentials for flow predictions at high friction Reynolds numbers: the higher the friction Reynolds number is the better the EASSM will behave and the worse the performances of the DEVM will be. The better performance of the EASSM is contributed to the ability to capture flow anisotropy at the small scales through a correct formulation for the SGS stresses. Moreover, a considerable reduction in the required computational resources can be achieved using the EASSM compared to DEVM. Therefore, the EASSM combines accuracy and computational efficiency, implying that it has a clear potential for industrial CFD usage.