Automatic nonlinear predictive model-construction algorithm using forward regression and the PRESS statistic

An automatic nonlinear predictive model-construction algorithm is introduced based on forward regression and the predicted-residual-sums-of-squares (PRESS) statistic. The proposed algorithm is based on the fundamental concept of evaluating a model's generalisation capability through crossvalidation. This is achieved by using the PRESS statistic as a cost function to optimise model structure. In particular, the proposed algorithm is developed with the aim of achieving computational efficiency, such that the computational effort, which would usually be extensive in the computation of the PRESS statistic, is reduced or minimised. The computation of PRESS is simplified by avoiding a matrix inversion through the use of the orthogonalisation procedure inherent in forward regression, and is further reduced significantly by the introduction of a forward-recursive formula. Based on the properties of the PRESS statistic, the proposed algorithm can achieve a fully automated procedure without resort to any other validation data set for iterative model evaluation. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the efficacy of the algorithm.

Emulating AOGCM results using simple climate models

Three simple climate models (SCMs) are calibrated using simulations from atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). In addition to using two conventional SCMs, results from a third simpler model developed specifically for this study are obtained. An easy to implement and comprehensive iterative procedure is applied that optimises the SCM emulation of global-mean surface temperature and total ocean heat content, and, if available in the SCM, of surface temperature over land, over the ocean and in both hemispheres, and of the global-mean ocean temperature profile. The method gives best-fit estimates as well as uncertainty intervals for the different SCM parameters. For the calibration, AOGCM simulations with two different types of forcing scenarios are used: pulse forcing simulations performed with 2 AOGCMs and gradually changing forcing simulations from 15 AOGCMs obtained within the framework of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The method is found to work well. For all possible combinations of SCMs and AOGCMs the emulation of AOGCM results could be improved. The obtained SCM parameters depend both on the AOGCM data and the type of forcing scenario. SCMs with a poor representation of the atmosphere thermal inertia are better able to emulate AOGCM results from gradually changing forcing than from pulse forcing simulations. Correct simultaneous emulation of both atmospheric temperatures and the ocean temperature profile by the SCMs strongly depends on the representation of the temperature gradient between the atmosphere and the mixed layer. Introducing climate sensitivities that are dependent on the forcing mechanism in the SCMs allows the emulation of AOGCM responses to carbon dioxide and solar insolation forcings equally well. Also, some SCM parameters are found to be very insensitive to the fitting, and the reduction of their uncertainty through the fitting procedure is only marginal, while other parameters change considerably. The very simple SCM is found to reproduce the AOGCM results as well as the other two comparably more sophisticated SCMs.

Space partitioning for scalable K-means

K-Means is a popular clustering algorithm which adopts an iterative refinement procedure to determine data partitions and to compute their associated centres of mass, called centroids. The straightforward implementation of the algorithm is often referred to as `brute force' since it computes a proximity measure from each data point to each centroid at every iteration of the K-Means process. Efficient implementations of the K-Means algorithm have been predominantly based on multi-dimensional binary search trees (KD-Trees). A combination of an efficient data structure and geometrical constraints allow to reduce the number of distance computations required at each iteration. In this work we present a general space partitioning approach for improving the efficiency and the scalability of the K-Means algorithm. We propose to adopt approximate hierarchical clustering methods to generate binary space partitioning trees in contrast to KD-Trees. In the experimental analysis, we have tested the performance of the proposed Binary Space Partitioning K-Means (BSP-KM) when a divisive clustering algorithm is used. We have carried out extensive experimental tests to compare the proposed approach to the one based on KD-Trees (KD-KM) in a wide range of the parameters space. BSP-KM is more scalable than KDKM, while keeping the deterministic nature of the `brute force' algorithm. In particular, the proposed space partitioning approach has shown to overcome the well-known limitation of KD-Trees in high-dimensional spaces and can also be adopted to improve the efficiency of other algorithms in which KD-Trees have been used.

Theory of mind and attentional bias to facial emotional expressions: A preliminary study

Theory of mind ability has been associated with performance in interpersonal interactions and has been found to influence aspects such as emotion recognition, social competence, and social anxiety. Being able to attribute mental states to others requires attention to subtle communication cues such as facial emotional expressions. Decoding and interpreting emotions expressed by the face, especially those with negative valence, are essential skills to successful social interaction. The current study explored the association between theory of mind skills and attentional bias to facial emotional expressions. According to the study hypothesis, individuals with poor theory of mind skills showed preferential attention to negative faces over both non-negative faces and neutral objects. Tentative explanations for the findings are offered emphasizing the potential adaptive role of vigilance for threat as a way of allocating a limited capacity to interpret others’ mental states to obtain as much information as possible about potential danger in the social environment.

Investigation of ultra wideband multi-channel dichroic beamsplitters from 0.3 to 52µm

The development of a set of multi-channel dichroics which includes a 6 channel dichroic operating over the wavelength region from 0.3 to 52µm is described. In order to achieve the optimum performance, the optical constants of PbTe, Ge and CdTe coatings in the strongly absorptive region have been determined by use of a new iterative method using normal incidence reflectance measurement of the multilayer together with initial values of energy gap Eg and infinite refractive index n for the semiconductor model. The design and manufacture of the dichroics is discussed and the final results are presented.

Application of a novel optimal control algorithm to a benchmark fed-batch fermentation process

A novel algorithm for solving nonlinear discrete time optimal control problems with model-reality differences is presented. The technique uses Dynamic Integrated System Optimisation and Parameter Estimation (DISOPE) which has been designed to achieve the correct optimal solution in spite of deficiencies in the mathematical model employed in the optimisation procedure. A method based on Broyden's ideas is used for approximating some derivative trajectories required. Ways for handling con straints on both manipulated and state variables are described. Further, a method for coping with batch-to- batch dynamic variations in the process, which are common in practice, is introduced. It is shown that the iterative procedure associated with the algorithm naturally suits applications to batch processes. The algorithm is success fully applied to a benchmark problem consisting of the input profile optimisation of a fed-batch fermentation process.

Optimal control of nonlinear systems represented by differential algebraic equations

An iterative procedure is described for solving nonlinear optimal control problems subject to differential algebraic equations. The procedure iterates on an integrated modified simplified model based problem with parameter updating in such a manner that the correct solution of the original nonlinear problem is achieved.

New developments in batch process input profile optimisation

A novel algorithm for solving nonlinear discrete time optimal control problems with model-reality differences is presented. The technique uses dynamic integrated system optimisation and parameter estimation (DISOPE) which achieves the correct optimal solution in spite of deficiencies in the mathematical model employed in the optimisation procedure. A new method for approximating some Jacobian trajectories required by the algorithm is introduced. It is shown that the iterative procedure associated with the algorithm naturally suits applications to batch chemical processes.

Optimal control of nonlinear differential algebraic equation systems

A novel iterative procedure is described for solving nonlinear optimal control problems subject to differential algebraic equations. The procedure iterates on an integrated modified linear quadratic model based problem with parameter updating in such a manner that the correct solution of the original non-linear problem is achieved. The resulting algorithm has a particular advantage in that the solution is achieved without the need to solve the differential algebraic equations . Convergence aspects are discussed and a simulation example is described which illustrates the performance of the technique. 1. Introduction When modelling industrial processes often the resulting equations consist of coupled differential and algebraic equations (DAEs). In many situations these equations are nonlinear and cannot readily be directly reduced to ordinary differential equations.

Multiband OFDM modulation and demodulation for ultra wideband communications

This chapter considers the Multiband Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (MB- OFDM) modulation and demodulation with the intention to optimize the Ultra-Wideband (UWB) system performance. OFDM is a type of multicarrier modulation and becomes the most important aspect for the MB-OFDM system performance. It is also a low cost digital signal component efficiently using Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) algorithm to implement the multicarrier orthogonality. Within the MB-OFDM approach, the OFDM modulation is employed in each 528 MHz wide band to transmit the data across the different bands while also using the frequency hopping technique across different bands. Each parallel bit stream can be mapped onto one of the OFDM subcarriers. Quadrature Phase Shift Keying (QPSK) and Dual Carrier Modulation (DCM) are currently used as the modulation schemes for MB-OFDM in the ECMA-368 defined UWB radio platform. A dual QPSK soft-demapper is suitable for ECMA-368 that exploits the inherent Time-Domain Spreading (TDS) and guard symbol subcarrier diversity to improve the receiver performance, yet merges decoding operations together to minimize hardware and power requirements. There are several methods to demap the DCM, which are soft bit demapping, Maximum Likelihood (ML) soft bit demapping, and Log Likelihood Ratio (LLR) demapping. The Channel State Information (CSI) aided scheme coupled with the band hopping information is used as a further technique to improve the DCM demapping performance. ECMA-368 offers up to 480 Mb/s instantaneous bit rate to the Medium Access Control (MAC) layer, but depending on radio channel conditions dropped packets unfortunately result in a lower throughput. An alternative high data rate modulation scheme termed Dual Circular 32-QAM that fits within the configuration of the current standard increasing system throughput thus maintaining the high rate throughput even with a moderate level of dropped packets.

Conditioning of incremental variational data assimilation, with application to the Met Office system

Implementations of incremental variational data assimilation require the iterative minimization of a series of linear least-squares cost functions. The accuracy and speed with which these linear minimization problems can be solved is determined by the condition number of the Hessian of the problem. In this study, we examine how different components of the assimilation system influence this condition number. Theoretical bounds on the condition number for a single parameter system are presented and used to predict how the condition number is affected by the observation distribution and accuracy and by the specified lengthscales in the background error covariance matrix. The theoretical results are verified in the Met Office variational data assimilation system, using both pseudo-observations and real data.

British pharmacy professionals’ beliefs and participation in continuing professional development: a review of the literature.

Objectives Continuing professional development (CPD) has potential to be useful in pharmacy revalidation but past uptake and attitudes to CPD in Great Britain (GB) need to be mapped. This review examines published literature to chart the participation and beliefs of pharmacy professionals towards CPD in GB in a decade that had seen a formal transition from continuing education to CPD. Methods A comprehensive review of the published literature was conducted to identify studies of the uptake of, or attitudes towards, CPD cross different sectors of pharmacy in GB from 2000 to 2010. Key findings Twenty-two studies were included and analysed, including 13 research papers, six conference papers, two news items reporting survey outcomes and one commissioned study. Eight barriers to CPD were identified as: time, financial costs and resource issues, understanding of CPD, facilitation and support for CPD, motivation and interest in CPD, attitudes towards compulsory CPD, system constraints, and technical problems. Pharmacy professionals on the whole agreed with the principle of engaging with CPD but there was little evidence to suggest widespread and wholehearted acceptance and uptake of CPD, essential for revalidation. Conclusions If CPD is to succeed, people's beliefs and attitudes must be addressed by recognising and modifying perceived barriers through a combination of regulatory, professional, work-related and personal channels. A number of recommendations are made. Direct experience of effective CPD in the absence of perceived barriers could impact on personal development, career development and patient benefit thus strengthening personal beliefs in the value of CPD in an iterative manner.

Assessment of cognitive symptoms in prodromal and early Huntington disease

The Functional Rating Scale Taskforce for pre-Huntington Disease (FuRST-pHD) is a multinational, multidisciplinary initiative with the goal of developing a data-driven, comprehensive, psychometrically sound, rating scale for assessing symptoms and functional ability in prodromal and early Huntington disease (HD) gene expansion carriers. The process involves input from numerous sources to identify relevant symptom domains, including HD individuals, caregivers, and experts from a variety of fields, as well as knowledge gained from the analysis of data from ongoing large-scale studies in HD using existing clinical scales. This is an iterative process in which an ongoing series of field tests in prodromal (prHD) and early HD individuals provides the team with data on which to make decisions regarding which questions should undergo further development or testing and which should be excluded. We report here the development and assessment of the first iteration of interview questions aimed to assess cognitive symptoms in prHD and early HD individuals.

Assessment of day-to-day functioning in prodromal and early Huntington disease

The Functional Rating Scale Taskforce for pre-Huntington Disease (FuRST-pHD) is a multinational, multidisciplinary initiative with the goal of developing a data-driven, comprehensive, psychometrically sound, rating scale for assessing symptoms and functional ability in prodromal and early Huntington disease (HD) gene expansion carriers. The process involves input from numerous sources to identify relevant symptom domains, including HD individuals, caregivers, and experts from a variety of fields, as well as knowledge gained from the analysis of data from ongoing large-scale studies in HD using existing clinical scales. This is an iterative process in which an ongoing series of field tests in prodromal (prHD) and early HD individuals provides the team with data on which to make decisions regarding which questions should undergo further development or testing and which should be excluded. We report here the development and assessment of the first iteration of interview questions aimed to assess functional impact in day-to-day activities in prHD and early HD individuals.

Assessing behavioural manifestations prior to clinical diagnosis of Huntington disease: "anger and irritability" and "obsessions and compulsions"

The Functional Rating Scale Taskforce for pre-Huntington Disease (FuRST-pHD) is a multinational, multidisciplinary initiative with the goal of developing a data-driven, comprehensive, psychometrically sound, rating scale for assessing symptoms and functional ability in prodromal and early Huntington disease (HD) gene expansion carriers. The process involves input from numerous sources to identify relevant symptom domains, including HD individuals, caregivers, and experts from a variety of fields, as well as knowledge gained from the analysis of data from ongoing large-scale studies in HD using existing clinical scales. This is an iterative process in which an ongoing series of field tests in prodromal (prHD) and early HD individuals provides the team with data on which to make decisions regarding which questions should undergo further development or testing and which should be excluded. We report here the development and assessment of the first iteration of interview questions aimed to assess "Anger and Irritability" and "Obsessions and Compulsions" in prHD individuals.