Subseasonal extremes of precipitation and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon in a climate-change scenario

Changes to the behaviour of subseasonal precipitation extremes and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon are assessed in this study using pre-industrial and 2 × CO2 integrations of the Hadley Centre coupled model HadCM3, which is able to simulate the monsoon seasonal cycle reasonably. At 2 × CO2, mean summer rainfall increases slightly, especially over central and northern India. The mean intensity of daily precipitation during the monsoon is found to increase, consistent with fewer wet days, and there are increases to heavy rain events beyond changes in the mean alone. The chance of reaching particular thresholds of heavy rainfall is found to approximately double over northern India, increasing the likelihood of damaging floods on a seasonal basis. The local distribution of such projections is uncertain, however, given the large spread in mean monsoon rainfall change and associated extremes amongst even the most recent coupled climate models. The measured increase of the heaviest precipitation events over India is found to be broadly in line with the degree of atmospheric warming and associated increases in specific humidity, lending a degree of predictability to changes in rainfall extremes. Active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon, important particularly due to their effect on agricultural output, are shown to be reasonably represented in HadCM3, in particular with some degree of northward propagation. We note an intensification of both active and break events, particularly when measured against the annual cycle, although there is no suggestion of any change to the duration or likelihood of monsoon breaks. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Post-neoliberal electricity market ‘re-reforms’ in Argentina: Diverging from market prescriptions?

This paper focuses upon the policy and institutional change that has taken place within the Argentine electricity market since the country’s economic and social crisis of 2001/2. As one of the first less developed countries (LDCs) to liberalise and privatise its electricity industry, Argentina has since moved away from the orthodox market model after consumer prices were frozen by the Government in early 2002 when the national currency was devalued by 70%. Although its reforms were widely praised during the 1990s, the electricity market has undergone a number of interventions, ostensibly to keep consumer prices low and to avert the much-discussed energy ‘crisis’ caused by a dearth of new investment combined with rising demand levels. This paper explores how the economic crisis and its consequences have both enabled and legitimised these policy and institutional amendments, while drawing upon the specifics of the post-neoliberal market ‘re-reforms’ to consider the extent to which the Government appears to be moving away from market-based prescriptions. In addition, this paper contributes to sector-specific understandings of how, despite these changes, neoliberal ideas and assumptions continue to dominate Argentine public policy well beyond the postcrisis era.

Simulating SOC changes in 11 land use change chronosequences from the Brazilian Amazon with RothC and Century models

Land use and land cover changes in the Brazilian Amazon have major implications for regional and global carbon (C) cycling. Cattle pasture represents the largest single use (about 70%) of this once-forested land in most of the region. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the RothC and Century models at estimating soil organic C (SOC) changes under forest-to-pasture conditions in the Brazilian Amazon. We used data from 11 site-specific 'forest to pasture' chronosequences with the Century Ecosystem Model (Century 4.0) and the Rothamsted C Model (RothC 26.3). The models predicted that forest clearance and conversion to well managed pasture would cause an initial decline in soil C stocks (0-20 cm depth), followed in the majority of cases by a slow rise to levels exceeding those under native forest. One exception to this pattern was a chronosequence in Suia-Missu, which is under degraded pasture. In three other chronosequences the recovery of soil C under pasture appeared to be only to about the same level as under the previous forest. Statistical tests were applied to determine levels of agreement between simulated SOC stocks and observed stocks for all the sites within the 11 chronosequences. The models also provided reasonable estimates (coefficient of correlation = 0.8) of the microbial biomass C in the 0-10 cm soil layer for three chronosequences, when compared with available measured data. The Century model adequately predicted the magnitude and the overall trend in delta C-13 for the six chronosequences where measured 813 C data were available. This study gave independent tests of model performance, as no adjustments were made to the models to generate outputs. Our results suggest that modelling techniques can be successfully used for monitoring soil C stocks and changes, allowing both the identification of current patterns in the soil and the projection of future conditions. Results were used and discussed not only to evaluate soil C dynamics but also to indicate soil C sequestration opportunities for the Brazilian Amazon region. Moreover, modelling studies in these 'forest to pasture' systems have important applications, for example, the calculation of CO, emissions from land use change in national greenhouse gas inventories. (0 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 1: model construction and validation

Heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The first part of a study to produce projections of the effect of future climate change on heat-related mortality is presented. Separate city-specific empirical statistical models that quantify significant relationships between summer daily maximum temperature (T max) and daily heat-related deaths are constructed from historical data for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London, and Sydney. ‘Threshold temperatures’ above which heat-related deaths begin to occur are identified. The results demonstrate significantly lower thresholds in ‘cooler’ cities exhibiting lower mean summer temperatures than in ‘warmer’ cities exhibiting higher mean summer temperatures. Analysis of individual ‘heat waves’ illustrates that a greater proportion of mortality is due to mortality displacement in cities with less sensitive temperature–mortality relationships than in those with more sensitive relationships, and that mortality displacement is no longer a feature more than 12 days after the end of the heat wave. Validation techniques through residual and correlation analyses of modelled and observed values and comparisons with other studies indicate that the observed temperature–mortality relationships are represented well by each of the models. The models can therefore be used with confidence to examine future heat-related deaths under various climate change scenarios for the respective cities (presented in Part 2).

The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century

Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an "ensemble of opportunity" of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels.

The use of bootstrapped Malmquist indices to reassess productivity change findings: an application to a sample of Polish farms

This article assesses the extent to which sampling variation affects findings about Malmquist productivity change derived using data envelopment analysis (DEA), in the first stage by calculating productivity indices and in the second stage by investigating the farm-specific change in productivity. Confidence intervals for Malmquist indices are constructed using Simar and Wilson's (1999) bootstrapping procedure. The main contribution of this article is to account in the second stage for the information in the second stage provided by the first-stage bootstrap. The DEA SEs of the Malmquist indices given by bootstrapping are employed in an innovative heteroscedastic panel regression, using a maximum likelihood procedure. The application is to a sample of 250 Polish farms over the period 1996 to 2000. The confidence intervals' results suggest that the second half of 1990s for Polish farms was characterized not so much by productivity regress but rather by stagnation. As for the determinants of farm productivity change, we find that the integration of the DEA SEs in the second-stage regression is significant in explaining a proportion of the variance in the error term. Although our heteroscedastic regression results differ with those from the standard OLS, in terms of significance and sign, they are consistent with theory and previous research.

Adaptation to climate change and variability: farmer responses to intra-seasonal precipitation trends in South Africa

We describe the nature of recent (50 year) rainfall variability in the summer rainfall zone, South Africa, and how variability is recognised and responded to on the ground by farmers. Using daily rainfall data and self-organising mapping (SOM) we identify 12 internally homogeneous rainfall regions displaying differing parameters of precipitation change. Three regions, characterised by changing onset and timing of rains, rainfall frequencies and intensities, in Limpopo, North West and KwaZulu Natal provinces, were selected to investigate farmer perceptions of, and responses to, rainfall parameter changes. Village and household level analyses demonstrate that the trends and variabilities in precipitation parameters differentiated by the SOM analysis were clearly recognised by people living in the areas in which they occurred. A range of specific coping and adaptation strategies are employed by farmers to respond to climate shifts, some generic across regions and some facilitated by specific local factors. The study has begun to understand the complexity of coping and adaptation, and the factors that influence the decisions that are taken.

An evaluation of the costs of making specific secondary metabolites: does the yield penalty incurred by host plant resistance to insects due to competition for resources?

The presumption that the synthesis of 'defence' compounds in plants must incur some 'trade-off' or penalty in terms of annual crop yields has been used to explain observed inverse correlations between resistance to herbivores and rates of growth or photosynthesis. An analysis of the cost of making secondary compounds suggests that this accounts for only a small part of the overall carbon budget of annual crop plants. Even the highest reported amounts of secondary metabolites found in different crop species (flavonoids, allylisothiocyanates, hydroxamic acids, 2-tridecanone) represent a carbon demand that can be satisfied by less than an hour's photosynthesis. Similar considerations apply to secondary compounds containing nitrogen or sulphur, which are unlikely to represent a major investment compared to the cost of making proteins, the major demand for these elements. Decreases in growth and photosynthesis in response to stress are more likely the result of programmed down-regulation. Observed correlations between yield and low contents of unpalatable or toxic compounds may be the result of parallel selection during the refinement of crop species by humans.

When are ant-attractant devices a worthwhile investment? Vicia faba extrafloral nectaries and Lasius niger ants

Most studies aiming to determine the beneficial effect of ants on plants simply consider the effects of the presence or exclusion of ants on plant yield. This approach is often inadequate, however, as ants interact with both non-tended herbivores and tended Homoptera. Moreover, the interaction with these groups of organisms is dependent on ant density, and these functional relationships are likely to be non-linear. A model is presented here that segregates plant herbivores into two categories depending on the sign of their numerical response to ants (myrmecophiles increase with ants, non-tended herbivores decline). The changes in these two components of herbivores with increasing ant density and the resulting implications for ant-plant mutualisms are considered. It emerges that a wide range of ant densities needs to be considered as the interaction sign (mutualism or parasitism) and strength is likely to change with ant density. The model is used to interpret the results of an experimental study that varied levels of Aphis fabae infestation and Lasius niger ant attendance on Vicia faba bean plants. Increasing ant density consistently reduced plant fitness and thus, in this location, the interaction between the ants and the plant can be considered parasitic. In the Vicia faba system, these costs of ants are unlikely to be offset by other beneficial agents (e.g., parasitoids), which also visit extrafloral nectaries.

An integrated assessment of carbon dioxide capture and storage in the UK

Geological carbon dioxide storage (CCS) has the potential to make a significant contribution to the decarbonisation of the UK. Amid concerns over maintaining security, and hence diversity, of supply, CCS could allow the continued use of coal, oil and gas whilst avoiding the CO2 emissions currently associated with fossil fuel use. This project has explored some of the geological, environmental, technical, economic and social implications of this technology. The UK is well placed to exploit CCS with a large offshore storage capacity, both in disused oil and gas fields and saline aquifers. This capacity should be sufficient to store CO2 from the power sector (at current levels) for a least one century, using well understood and therefore likely to be lower-risk, depleted hydrocarbon fields and contained parts of aquifers. It is very difficult to produce reliable estimates of the (potentially much larger) storage capacity of the less well understood geological reservoirs such as non-confined parts of aquifers. With the majority of its large coal fired power stations due to be retired during the next 15 to 20 years, the UK is at a natural decision point with respect to the future of power generation from coal; the existence of both national reserves and the infrastructure for receiving imported coal makes clean coal technology a realistic option. The notion of CCS as a ‘bridging’ or ‘stop-gap’ technology (i.e. whilst we develop ‘genuinely’ sustainable renewable energy technologies) needs to be examined somewhat critically, especially given the scale of global coal reserves. If CCS plant is built, then it is likely that technological innovation will bring down the costs of CO2 capture, such that it could become increasingly attractive. As with any capitalintensive option, there is a danger of becoming ‘locked-in’ to a CCS system. The costs of CCS in our model for UK power stations in the East Midlands and Yorkshire to reservoirs in the North Sea are between £25 and £60 per tonne of CO2 captured, transported and stored. This is between about 2 and 4 times the current traded price of a tonne of CO2 in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. In addition to the technical and economic requirements of the CCS technology, it should also be socially and environmentally acceptable. Our research has shown that, given an acceptance of the severity and urgency of addressing climate change, CCS is viewed favourably by members of the public, provided it is adopted within a portfolio of other measures. The most commonly voiced concern from the public is that of leakage and this remains perhaps the greatest uncertainty with CCS. It is not possible to make general statements concerning storage security; assessments must be site specific. The impacts of any potential leakage are also somewhat uncertain but should be balanced against the deleterious effects of increased acidification in the oceans due to uptake of elevated atmospheric CO2 that have already been observed. Provided adequate long term monitoring can be ensured, any leakage of CO2 from a storage site is likely to have minimal localised impacts as long as leaks are rapidly repaired. A regulatory framework for CCS will need to include risk assessment of potential environmental and health and safety impacts, accounting and monitoring and liability for the long term. In summary, although there remain uncertainties to be resolved through research and demonstration projects, our assessment demonstrates that CCS holds great potential for significant cuts in CO2 emissions as we develop long term alternatives to fossil fuel use. CCS can contribute to reducing emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere in the near term (i.e. peak-shaving the future atmospheric concentration of CO2), with the potential to continue to deliver significant CO2 reductions over the long term.

Learning across business sectors: Knowledge sharing between aerospace and construction

This report addresses the extent that managerial practices can be shared between the aerospace and construction sectors. Current recipes for learning from other industries tend to be oversimplistic and often fail to recognise the embedded and contextual nature of managerial knowledge. Knowledge sharing between business sectors is best understood as an essential source of innovation. The process of comparison challenges assumptions and better equips managers to cope with future change. Comparisons between the aerospace and construction sectors are especially useful because they are so different. The two sectors differ hugely in terms of their institutional context, structure and technological intensity. The aerospace sector has experienced extensive consolidation and is dominated by a small number of global companies. Aerospace companies operate within complex networks of global interdependency such that collaborative working is a commercial imperative. In contrast, the construction sector remains highly fragmented and is characterised by a continued reliance on small firms. The vast majority of construction firms compete within localised markets that are too often characterised by opportunistic behaviour. Comparing construction to aerospace highlights the unique characteristics of both sectors and helps explain how managerial practices are mediated by context. Detailed comparisons between the two sectors are made in a range of areas and guidance is provided for the implementation of knowledge sharing strategies within and across organisations. The commonly accepted notion of ‘best practice’ is exposed as a myth. Indeed, universal models of best practice can be detrimental to performance by deflecting from the need to adapt continuously to changing circumstances. Competitiveness in the construction sector too often rests on efficiency in managing contracts, with a particular emphasis on the allocation of risk. Innovation in construction tends to be problem-driven and is rarely shared from project to project. In aerospace, the dominant model of competitiveness means that firms have little choice other than to invest in continuous innovation, despite difficult trading conditions. Research and development (R&D) expenditure in aerospace continues to rise as a percentage of turnovers. A sustained capacity for innovation within the aerospace sector depends crucially upon stability and continuity of work. In the construction sector, the emergence of the ‘hollowed-out’ firm has undermined the industry’s capacity for innovation. Integrated procurement contexts such as prime contracting in construction potentially provide a more supportive climate for an innovation-based model of competitiveness. However, investment in new ways of working depends upon a shift in thinking not only amongst construction contractors, but also amongst the industry’s major clients.

Responsiveness to change by standard-form contract drafters: A case study of the FIDIC White Book

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to focus on the Fédération Internationale des Ingénieurs-Conseils (FIDIC) White Book standard form of building contract. It tracks the changes to this contract over its four editions, and seeks to identify their underlying causes. Design/methodology/approach – The changes made to the White Book are quantified using a specific type of quantitative content analysis. The amended clauses are then examined to understand the nature of the changes made. Findings – The length of the contract increased by 34 per cent between 1990 and 2006. A large proportion of the overall increase can be attributed to the clauses dealing with “conflict of interest/corruption” and “dispute resolution”. In both instances, the FIDIC drafting committees have responded to international developments to discourage corruption, and to encourage the use of alternative dispute resolution. Between 1998 and 2006, the average length of the sentences increased slightly, raising the question of whether long sentences are easily understood by users of contracts. Research limitations/implications – Quantification of text appears to be particularly useful for the analysis of documents which are regularly updated because changes can be clearly identified and the length of sentences can be determined, leading to conclusions about the readability of the text. However, caution is needed because changes of great relevance can be made to contract clauses without actually affecting their length. Practical implications – The paper will be instructive for contract drafters and informative for users of FIDIC's White Book. Originality/value – Quantifying text has been rarely used regarding standard-form contracts in the field of construction.

Qualitative modelling of sustainable energy scenarios: An application and extension of the Bon Qualitative Input-Output model

Climate change is one of the major challenges facing economic systems at the start of the 21st century. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will require both restructuring the energy supply system (production) and addressing the efficiency and sufficiency of the social uses of energy (consumption). The energy production system is a complicated supply network of interlinked sectors with 'knock-on' effects throughout the economy. End use energy consumption is governed by complex sets of interdependent cultural, social, psychological and economic variables driven by shifts in consumer preference and technological development trajectories. To date, few models have been developed for exploring alternative joint energy production-consumption systems. The aim of this work is to propose one such model. This is achieved in a methodologically coherent manner through integration of qualitative input-output models of production, with Bayesian belief network models of consumption, at point of final demand. The resulting integrated framework can be applied either (relatively) quickly and qualitatively to explore alternative energy scenarios, or as a fully developed quantitative model to derive or assess specific energy policy options. The qualitative applications are explored here.

Serpa cheese: technological, biochemical and microbiological characterisation of a PDO ewe's milk cheese coagulated with Cynara cardunculus L

Portugal has a strong tradition of cheesemaking from raw ewe's milk; most of these cheeses are still made on a traditional farmhouse scale. Their production is protected by Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) but the specific biochemical aspects of the majority still need to be characterised. Two different cheesemaking procedures, traditional and semi-industrial, were compared technologically, biochemically and microbiologically. It was observed that, despite the highly significant difference between artisanal and semi-industrial cheeses (P < 0.001), both products were within the limits of national regulations for most parameters except maturation temperature, humidity and the value for the maturation index. Although the present study was not fully representative of the region, the results obtained suggest that the specific regulations for Serpa cheese should be revised and that other parameters, such as moisture and salt-in-moisture content, which are very much dependent on the cheesemaking process, should be included in order to characterise better this traditional cheese.

Apparent specific volumes and tastes of cyclamates, other sulfamates, saccharins and acesulfame sweeteners

Measurements of apparent specific volume (ASV) for a series of alternative sweeteners (cyclamates, sulfamates, saccharins, acesulfames and anilinomethanesulfonates) have been made. Taste data have been obtained for many of the new compounds unless the toxicity of the associated metals precluded this. Apparent molar volume (AMV), isentropic specific (IASC) and isentropic molar (IAMC) compressibilities were also measured. Sixteen metallic cyclamates cyc-C6H11NHSO3M and two phenylsulfamates ArNHSO3Na, namely 3.5-dimethyl- and 3,4-dimethoxyphenylsulfamates have been examined. When the ASVs for these are combined with those for 15 aliphatic, aromatic and alicyclic sulfamates from a previous study, many of the values are seen to fall into the region that was previously identified as being the "sweet area", i.e. the ASVs lay between similar to0.5 and similar to0.7 (a few sweet compounds fall below this range and it is suggested that it could be extended slightly to accommodate these). Interestingly, the anilinomethanesulfonates, ArNHCH2SO3Na (Ar = C6H5-, 3-MeC6H4- and 3-ClC6H4-) lie clearly in the sweet region but only one of them shows slight sweetness showing that the molecular structural change made (compared with the 'parent' sulfamate-NHSO3-) cannot be accommodated at the receptor site. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.