Predicting recurrence after unprovoked venous thromboembolism: prospective validation of the updated Vienna Prediction Model.

The updated Vienna Prediction Model for estimating recurrence risk after an unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) has been developed to identify individuals at low risk for VTE recurrence in whom anticoagulation (AC) therapy may be stopped after 3 months. We externally validated the accuracy of the model to predict recurrent VTE in a prospective multicenter cohort of 156 patients aged ≥65 years with acute symptomatic unprovoked VTE who had received 3 to 12 months of AC. Patients with a predicted 12-month risk within the lowest quartile based on the updated Vienna Prediction Model were classified as low risk. The risk of recurrent VTE did not differ between low- vs higher-risk patients at 12 months (13% vs 10%; P = .77) and 24 months (15% vs 17%; P = 1.0). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting VTE recurrence was 0.39 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.25-0.52) at 12 months and 0.43 (95% CI, 0.31-0.54) at 24 months. In conclusion, in elderly patients with unprovoked VTE who have stopped AC, the updated Vienna Prediction Model does not discriminate between patients who develop recurrent VTE and those who do not. This study was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00973596.

A Randomized, Placebo-controlled Trial of Preemptive Antifungal Therapy for the Prevention of Invasive Candidiasis Following Gastrointestinal Surgery for Intra-abdominal Infections.

BACKGROUND: Patients undergoing emergency gastrointestinal surgery for intra-abdominal infection are at risk of invasive candidiasis (IC) and candidates for preemptive antifungal therapy. METHODS: This exploratory, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial assessed a preemptive antifungal approach with micafungin (100 mg/d) in intensive care unit patients requiring surgery for intra-abdominal infection. Coprimary efficacy variables were the incidence of IC and the time from baseline to first IC in the full analysis set; an independent data review board confirmed IC. An exploratory biomarker analysis was performed using logistic regression. RESULTS: The full analysis set comprised 124 placebo- and 117 micafungin-treated patients. The incidence of IC was 8.9% for placebo and 11.1% for micafungin (difference, 2.24%; [95% confidence interval, -5.52 to 10.20]). There was no difference between the arms in median time to IC. The estimated odds ratio showed that patients with a positive (1,3)-β-d-glucan (ßDG) result were 3.66 (95% confidence interval, 1.01-13.29) times more likely to have confirmed IC than those with a negative result. CONCLUSIONS: This study was unable to provide evidence that preemptive administration of an echinocandin was effective in preventing IC in high-risk surgical intensive care unit patients with intra-abdominal infections. This may have been because the drug was administered too late to prevent IC coupled with an overall low number of IC events. It does provide some support for using ßDG to identify patients at high risk of IC. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT01122368.

Determinants of male fitness: disentangling intra- and inter-sexual selection.

Both intra- and inter-sexual selection may crucially determine a male's fitness. Their interplay, which has rarely been experimentally investigated, determines a male's optimal reproductive strategy and thus is of fundamental importance to the understanding of a male's behaviour. Here we investigated the relative importance of intra- and inter-sexual selection for male fitness in the common lizard. We investigated which male traits predict a male's access to reproduction allowing for both selective pressures and comparing it with a staged mating experiment excluding all types of intra-sexual selection. We found that qualitatively better males were more likely to reproduce and that sexual selection was two times stronger when allowing for both selective pressures, suggesting that inter- and intra-sexual selection determines male fitness and confirming the existence of multi-factorial sexual selection. Consequently, to optimize fitness, males should trade their investment between the traits, which are important for inter- and intra-sexual selection.

Altérations dans le cordon ombilical de nouveau-nés avec une restriction de la croissance intra-utérine

Introduction: Le retard de croissance intra-utérin (RCIU) est défini comme une incapacité du foetus à atteindre son plein potentiel de croissance. C'est une complication fréquente (affectant ~8% des grossesses), associée à un risque accru de mortalité et morbidité périnatales et de maladies chroniques à l'âge adulte, telles que les maladies coronariennes, l'hypertension, ou le diabète. Une croissance foetale adéquate est déterminée principalement par la disponibilité en oxygène et nutriments apportés au foetus par la circulation ombilico-placentaire. Chez l'homme, le tonus vasculaire ombilical est régulé majoritairement par la voie du monoxyde d'azote (NO)/GMPc. Nous avons émis l'hypothèse que le RCIU pourrait être associé à des altérations dans la régulation de la circulation ombilicale, en particulier dans la voie du NO/GMPc. Méthodes: Cette étude a été conçue pour identifier dans des cordons ombilicaux, les changements structurels, fonctionnels et moléculaires survenant en cas de RCIU, en particulier dans la veine om-bilicale. Résultats: De façon générale, le diamètre du cordon ombilical était significativement réduit chez les nouveau-nés avec RCIU par rapport aux contrôles. Les mesures histomorphométriques ont mis en évidence une diminution significative de la surface transversale totale ainsi que de muscle lisse dans la veine ombilicale en cas de RCIU. Les études pharmacologiques effectuées sur des anneaux vasculaires de veines ombilicales ont montré une diminution de la tension maximale induite par des vasoconstricteurs chez les garçons avec RCIU, et une réduction significative de la relaxation induite par le NO chez les filles avec RCIU. Cette altération de la relaxation s'accompagne de modifications de plusieurs composants de la voie du NO/GMPc au niveau du muscle lisse de la veine ombilicale des filles avec RCIU. Enfin l'addition d'un inhibiteur non-spécifique des phosphodiesterases (PDEs) a permis d'améliorer la réponse au NO dans tous les groupes et surtout de compenser la réduction de la relaxation induite par le NO chez les filles avec RCIU. Conclusion: Cette étude a permis de mettre en évidence des modifications structurelles dans le cordon ombilical de nouveau-nés présentant un RCIU, ainsi que des changements fonctionnels et moléculaires dans la veine ombilicale, en particulier dans la voie du NO/GMPc, qui pourraient contribuer au développement du RCIU. L'effet bénéfique de l'inhibition des PDEs sur la relaxation suggère qu'elles pourraient constituer des cibles thérapeutiques potentielles.

Tomografia computadorizada das células etmoidais intra e extramurais: ensaio iconográfico

O desenvolvimento dos seios paranasais é um processo intricado que se inicia na vida intrauterina e termina na idade adulta. Dos seios da face, as células etmoidais são provavelmente as estruturas mais complexas e as que estão associadas com o maior número de variantes da normalidade. Variações no padrão de pneumatização das células etmoidais podem ser divididas em intra ou extramurais. Intramurais são aquelas que ao se desenvolverem mantêm contato com o labirinto etmoidal, e extramurais as que se desenvolvem isoladamente. A tomografia computadorizada é a ferramenta mais útil na avaliação de processos inflamatórios dos seios paranasais. De igual modo, ela é importante para o planejamento pré-operatório e controle pós-operatório, pois possibilita grande detalhe anatômico das estruturas normais e detecção precisa de suas variantes. Neste ensaio iconográfico os autores descrevem as principais variantes da normalidade do labirinto etmoidal e suas relações com estruturas adjacentes. Cirurgias endoscópicas para o tratamento de afecções dos seios paranasais têm-se tornado cada vez menos invasivas, o que certamente aumentará a demanda por relatórios de imagem cada vez mais ricos em detalhes desta região.

Prediction of preeclampsia by means of Doppler flowmetry of uterine artery and flow-mediated dilation of brachial artery

Objective To evaluate the association of Doppler of uterine artery and flow-mediated dilation of brachial artery (FMD) in the assessment of placental perfusion and endothelial function to predict preeclampsia. Materials and Methods A total of 91 patients considered as at risk for developing preeclampsia were recruited at the prenatal unit of the authors' institution. All the patients underwent FMD and Doppler of uterine arteries between their 24th and 28th gestational weeks. Calculations of sensitivity and specificity for both isolated and associated methods were performed. Results Nineteen out of the 91 patients developed preeclampsia, while the rest remained normotensive. Doppler flowmetry of uterine arteries with presence of bilateral protodiastolic notch had sensitivity of 63.1% and specificity of 87.5% for the prediction of preeclampsia. Considering a cutoff value of 6.5%, FMD showed sensitivity of 84.2% and specificity of 73.6%. In a parallel analysis, as the two methods were associated, sensitivity was 94.2% and specificity, 64.4%. Conclusion The association of Doppler study of uterine arteries and FMD has proved to be an interesting clinical strategy for the prediction of preeclampsia, which may represent a positive impact on prenatal care of patients considered as at high-risk for developing such a condition.

A randomized double-blind control study of early intra-coronary autologous bone marrow cell infusion in acute myocardial infarction: the REGENERATE-AMI clinical trial?.

AIMS: Clinical trials suggest that intracoronary delivery of autologous bone marrow-derived cells (BMCs) 1-7 days post-acute myocardial infarction (AMI) may improve left ventricular (LV) function. Earlier time points have not been evaluated. We sought to determine the effect of intracoronary autologous BMC on LV function when delivered within 24 h of successful reperfusion therapy. METHODS AND RESULTS: A multi-centre phase II randomized, double-blind, and placebo-controlled trial. One hundred patients with anterior AMI and significant regional wall motion abnormality were randomized to receive either intracoronary infusion of BMC or placebo (1:1) within 24 h of successful primary percutaneous intervention (PPCI). The primary endpoint was the change in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) between baseline and 1 year as determined by advanced cardiac imaging. At 1 year, although LVEF increased compared with baseline in both groups, the between-group difference favouring BMC was small (2.2%; 95% confidence interval, CI: -0.5 to 5.0; P = 0.10). However, there was a significantly greater myocardial salvage index in the BMC-treated group compared with placebo (0.1%; 95% CI: 0.0-0.20; P = 0.048). Major adverse events were rare in both treatment groups. CONCLUSION: The early infusion of intracoronary BMC following PPCI for patients with AMI and regional wall motion abnormality leads to a small non-significant improvement in LVEF when compared with placebo; however, it may play an important role in infarct remodelling and myocardial salvage. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00765453 and EudraCT 2007-002144-16.

A Meta-Analysis of Trabecular Bone Score in Fracture Risk Prediction and Its Relationship to FRAX.

Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a bone mineral density (BMD)-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual-level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables, and outcomes during follow-up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities, and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1 SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95% CI 1.65-1.87 versus 1.70, 95% CI 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical assessment guidelines. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Prediction of Antibacterial Activity from Physicochemical Properties of Antimicrobial Peptides

Consensus is gathering that antimicrobial peptides that exert their antibacterial action at the membrane level must reach a local concentration threshold to become active. Studies of peptide interaction with model membranes do identify such disruptive thresholds but demonstrations of the possible correlation of these with the in vivo onset of activity have only recently been proposed. In addition, such thresholds observed in model membranes occur at local peptide concentrations close to full membrane coverage. In this work we fully develop an interaction model of antimicrobial peptides with biological membranes; by exploring the consequences of the underlying partition formalism we arrive at a relationship that provides antibacterial activity prediction from two biophysical parameters: the affinity of the peptide to the membrane and the critical bound peptide to lipid ratio. A straightforward and robust method to implement this relationship, with potential application to high-throughput screening approaches, is presented and tested. In addition, disruptive thresholds in model membranes and the onset of antibacterial peptide activity are shown to occur over the same range of locally bound peptide concentrations (10 to 100 mM), which conciliates the two types of observations

Reduced ceria nanofilms from structure prediction

Experimentally, Ce2O3 films are used to study cerium oxide in its fully or partially reduced state, as present in many applications. We have explored the space of low energy Ce2O3 nanofilms using structure prediction and density functional calculations, yielding more than 30 distinct nanofilm structures. First, our results help to rationalize the roles of thermodynamics and kinetics in the preparation of reduced ceria nanofilms with different bulk crystalline structures (e.g. A-type or bixbyite) depending on the support used. Second, we predict a novel, as yet experimentally unresolved, nanofilm which has a structure that does not correspond to any previously reported bulk A2B3 phase and which has an energetic stability between that of A-type and bixbyite. To assist identification and fabrication of this new Ce2O3 nanofilm we calculate some observable properties and propose supports for its epitaxial growth.

Prediction of individual automobile RBNS claim reserves in the context of Solvency II

Automobile bodily injury (BI) claims remain unsettled for a long time after the accident. The estimation of an accurate reserve for Reported But Not Settled (RBNS) claims is therefore vital for insurers. In accordance with the recommendation included in the Solvency II project (CEIOPS, 2007) a statistical model is here implemented for RBNS reserve estimation. Lognormality on empirical compensation cost data is observed for different levels of BI severity. The individual claim provision is estimated by allocating the expected mean compensation for the predicted severity of the victim’s injury, for which the upper bound is also computed. The BI severity is predicted by means of a heteroscedastic multiple choice model, because empirical evidence has found that the variability in the latent severity of injured individuals travelling by car is not constant. It is shown that this methodology can improve the accuracy of RBNS reserve estimation at all stages, as compared to the subjective assessment that has traditionally been made by practitioners.

Minimization of the experimental workload for the prediction of pollutants propagation in rivers. Mathematical modelling and knowledge re-use

The present thesis in focused on the minimization of experimental efforts for the prediction of pollutant propagation in rivers by mathematical modelling and knowledge re-use. Mathematical modelling is based on the well known advection-dispersion equation, while the knowledge re-use approach employs the methods of case based reasoning, graphical analysis and text mining. The thesis contribution to the pollutant transport research field consists of: (1) analytical and numerical models for pollutant transport prediction; (2) two novel techniques which enable the use of variable parameters along rivers in analytical models; (3) models for the estimation of pollutant transport characteristic parameters (velocity, dispersion coefficient and nutrient transformation rates) as functions of water flow, channel characteristics and/or seasonality; (4) the graphical analysis method to be used for the identification of pollution sources along rivers; (5) a case based reasoning tool for the identification of crucial information related to the pollutant transport modelling; (6) and the application of a software tool for the reuse of information during pollutants transport modelling research. These support tools are applicable in the water quality research field and in practice as well, as they can be involved in multiple activities. The models are capable of predicting pollutant propagation along rivers in case of both ordinary pollution and accidents. They can also be applied for other similar rivers in modelling of pollutant transport in rivers with low availability of experimental data concerning concentration. This is because models for parameter estimation developed in the present thesis enable the calculation of transport characteristic parameters as functions of river hydraulic parameters and/or seasonality. The similarity between rivers is assessed using case based reasoning tools, and additional necessary information can be identified by using the software for the information reuse. Such systems represent support for users and open up possibilities for new modelling methods, monitoring facilities and for better river water quality management tools. They are useful also for the estimation of environmental impact of possible technological changes and can be applied in the pre-design stage or/and in the practical use of processes as well.