Macroeconomic News and Exchange Rates: Evidence of Unstable Effect

Although the link between macroeconomic news announcements and exchange rates is well documented in recent literature, this connection may be unstable. By using a broad set of macroeconomic news announcements and high frequency forex data for the Euro/Dollar, Pound/Dollar and Yen/Dollar from Nov 1, 2004 to Mar 31, 2014, we obtain two major findings with regards to this instability. First, many macroeconomic news announcements exhibit unstable effects with certain patterns in foreign exchange rates. These news effects may change in magnitude and even in their sign over time, over business cycles and crises within distinctive contexts. This finding is robust because the results are obtained by applying a Two-Regime Smooth Transition Regression Model, a Breakpoints Regression Model, and an Efficient Test of Parameter Instability which are all consistent with each other. Second, when we explore the source of this instability, we find that global risks and the reaction by central bank monetary policy to these risks to be possible factors causing this instability.

A DYNAMIC FRAMEWORK FOR THE RELATIONS BETWEEN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES, SAVINGS AND INVESTMENTS

The Meese-Rogoff forecasting puzzle states that foreign exchange (FX) rates are unpredictable. Since one country’s macroeconomic conditions could affect the price of its national currency, we study the dynamic relations between the FX rates and some macroeconomic accounts. Our research tests whether the predictability of the FX rates could be improved through the advanced econometrics. Improving the predictability of the FX rates has important implications for various groups including investors, business entities and the government. The present thesis examines the dynamic relations between the FX rates, savings and investments for a sample of 25 countries from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. We apply quarterly data of FX rates, macroeconomic indices and accounts including the savings and the investments over three decades. Through preliminary Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests and Johansen cointegration tests, we found that the savings rate and the investment rate are cointegrated with the vector (1,-1). This result is consistent with many previous studies on the savings-investment relations and therefore confirms the validity of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Because of the special cointegrating relation between the savings rate and investment rate, we introduce the savings-investment rate differential (SID). Investigating each country through a vector autoregression (VAR) model, we observe extremely insignificant coefficient estimates of the historical SIDs upon the present FX rates. We also report similar findings through the panel VAR approach. We thus conclude that the historical SIDs are useless in forecasting the FX rate. Nonetheless, the coefficients of the past FX rates upon the current SIDs for both the country-specific and the panel VAR models are statistically significant. Therefore, we conclude that the historical FX rates can conversely predict the SID to some degree. Specifically, depreciation in the domestic currency would cause the increase in the SID.

Insurance Policy issued to William Woodruff

Insurance Policy issued by the Columbus Insurance Company of Columbus, Ohio to William Woodruff of St. Davids, Ontario on a detached brick building situated on Lot no. 6 on St. Paul Street, St. Catharines. This is fire policy no. 113, book 1, folio 112, April 11, 1884.

Certificate for Eight Shares of Capital Stock in Insurance Investments Limited

Certificate for 8 shares of capital stock in Insurance Investments Limited to Hamilton K. Woodruff, Aug. 12, 1929.

Certificate for Five and Four Fifths Shares of Capital Stock in Insurance Investments Limited

Certificate for 5 4/5 shares of capital stock in Insurance Investments Limited to Hamilton K. Woodruff, Jan. 15, 1930.

Cogswell, Maria, includes: Application for loan on Real Estate, Insurance Policy, Mortgage Loan Envelope

Cogswell, Maria, includes: Application for loan on Real Estate, Feb. 20, 1882; Insurance Policy no. 2199780 from the Royal Insurance Company of Liverpool, March 17, 1887 and Mortgage Loan Envelope for mortgage no. 1535 from March 1, 1882 – March 1, 1887.

Clipping about county rates paid in the village of Thorold

Clipping about county rates paid in the village of Thorold, June 18, 1867

Printed blank from Frank Pearce and Co. Shipping and Insurance Agents

Printed blank from Frank Pearce and Co. Shipping and Insurance Agents regarding the bill of landing for the porcelain cask, Oct. 26, 1876.

Insurance policy (tourists’ policy) to insure Annie L. Woodruff for 1 year

Insurance policy (tourists’ policy) to insure Annie L. Woodruff for 1 year. This is accompanied by an envelope, Oct. 21, 1921.

Letter to Mr. Summer and Mr. Nelles from the Office of the N.D. Mutual Insurance Company of St. Catharines

Letter to Mr. Summer and Mr. Nelles from the Office of the N.D. Mutual Insurance Company of St. Catharines regarding an assessment of 4 % on the premium notes of this company. This is signed by Mr. Arnold, secretary of N.D. Mutual F. Insurance Company, Aug. 9, 1848.

Letter to Robert Nelles from the Office of the N.D. Mutual Fire Insurance Company

Letter to Robert Nelles from the Office of the N.D. Mutual Fire Insurance Company regarding an assessment of 5% on the premium notes of this company. This is signed by Mr. Arnold, secretary of the N.D. Mutual F. Insurance Company, Dec. 15, 1849.

Insurance policy made to Henry Nelles of Grimsby covering a property in Grimsby, Upper Canada

Insurance policy made to Henry Nelles of Grimsby covering a property in Grimsby, Upper Canada from the Phoenix Fire Office of Montreal, July 15, 1831.

Insurance Policy from the Quebec Fire Assurance Company to Mr. Joseph Power Bradley

Insurance Policy from the Quebec Fire Assurance Company to Mr. Joseph Power Bradley for his household furniture, linen wearing apparels, glass, earthenware and printed books in a house occupied as a dwelling and belonging to Joseph Legare Junt in the town of Quebec, Oct. 10, 1830

The association between maternity insurance, residence status and selected perinatal outcomes among Chinese women

Objective: To investigate the impact of maternity insurance and maternal residence on birth outcomes in a Chinese population. Methods: Secondary data was analyzed from a perinatal cohort study conducted in the Beichen District of the city of Tianjin, China. A total of 2364 pregnant women participated in this study at approximately 12-week gestation upon registration for receiving prenatal care services. After accounting for missing information for relevant variables, a total of 2309 women with single birth were included in this analysis. Results: A total of 1190 (51.5%) women reported having maternity insurance, and 629 (27.2%) were rural residents. The abnormal birth outcomes were small for gestational age (SGA, n=217 (9.4%)), large for gestational age (LGA, n=248 (10.7%)), birth defect (n=48 (2.1%)) including congenital heart defect (n=32 (1.4%)). In urban areas, having maternal insurance increased the odds of SGA infants (1.32, 95%CI (0.85, 2.04), NS), but decreased the odds of LGA infants (0.92, 95%CI (0.62, 1.36), NS); also decreased the odds of birth defect (0.93, 95%CI (0.37, 2.33), NS), and congenital heart defect (0.65, 95%CI (0.21, 1.99), NS) after adjustment for covariates. In contrast to urban areas, having maternal insurance in rural areas reduced the odds of SGA infants (0.60, 95%CI (0.13, 2.73), NS); but increased the odds of LGA infants (2.16, 95%CI (0.92, 5.04), NS), birth defects (2.48, 95% CI (0.70, 8.80), NS), and congenital heart defect (2.18, 95%CI (0.48, 10.00), NS) after adjustment for the same covariates. Similar results were obtained from Bootstrap methods except that the odds ratio of LGA infants in rural areas for maternal insurance was significant (95%CI (1.13, 4.37)); urban residence was significantly related with lower odds of birth defect (95%CI (0.23, 0.89)) and congenital heart defect (95%CI (0.19, 0.91)). Conclusions: whether having maternal insurance did have an impact on perinatal outcomes, but the impact of maternal insurance on the perinatal outcomes showed differently between women with urban residence and women with rural residence status. However, it is not clear what are the reason causing the observed differences. Thus, more studies are needed.

Life Insurance and Genetics: A Comparative International Overview

La possibilité d'utiliser l'information génétique dans le domaine de l'assurance vie a soulevé des discussions autour des politiques et des législations, et ce, au niveau international, régional et national. Dans certains pays offrant des services de santé universels, le débat sur la génétique et l'assurance vie a envisagé de possibles restrictions quant à l'utilisation de l’information génétique en matière d’assurance.