Forecasting with vector autoregressive models of data vintages: US output growth and inflation

Vintage-based vector autoregressive models of a single macroeconomic variable are shown to be a useful vehicle for obtaining forecasts of different maturities of future and past observations, including estimates of post-revision values. The forecasting performance of models which include information on annual revisions is superior to that of models which only include the first two data releases. However, the empirical results indicate that a model which reflects the seasonal nature of data releases more closely does not offer much improvement over an unrestricted vintage-based model which includes three rounds of annual revisions.

Real-time forecasting of inflation and output growth with autoregressive models in the presence of data revisions

We examine how the accuracy of real-time forecasts from models that include autoregressive terms can be improved by estimating the models on ‘lightly revised’ data instead of using data from the latest-available vintage. The benefits of estimating autoregressive models on lightly revised data are related to the nature of the data revision process and the underlying process for the true values. Empirically, we find improvements in root mean square forecasting error of 2–4% when forecasting output growth and inflation with univariate models, and of 8% with multivariate models. We show that multiple-vintage models, which explicitly model data revisions, require large estimation samples to deliver competitive forecasts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sensitivity of the BEAM4 fisheries bioeconomic model to the main biological input parameters

Several runs of the BEAM4 model were carried out, combining several sets of input parameters from von Bertalanffy's growth curve (Lt = L-x[1 - e(-k(-to))]) and the natural mortality (M), with sets or parameters from the length-weight relationship (W=aL(b)). Further simulations were made with variations of +/- 20%, in the input parameters: recruitment (R), catchability coefficient (q), and the lengths at which 50 and 75% of the fishes are retained by the net (L-50%, and L-75%). The data used were those of the pair trawl fisheries for corvina Micropogonias furnieri, off southeastern Brazil. Results showed variations in the output (landed weight) ranging from - 62 to 147% associated with the diverse sets of VBGF and LWR parameters, and lower variations associated with the other input parameters tested. (C) 2001 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Tri-state single-phase integrated inverters with input to output power decoupling control

Researches on control for power electronics have looked for original solutions in order to advance renewable resources feasibility, specially the photovoltaic (PV). In this context, for PV renewable energy source the usage of compact, high efficiency, low cost and reliable converters are very attractive. In this context, two improved simplified converters, namely Tri-state Boost and Tri-state Buck-Boost integrated single-phase inverters, are achieved with the presented Tri-state modulation and control schemes, which guarantees the input to output power decoupling control. This feature enhances the field of single-phase PV inverters once the energy storage is mainly inductive. The main features of the proposal are confirmed with some simulations and experimental results. © 2012 IEEE.

Comparison of multiple-input single-output single-user ultra-wideband systems with pre-distortion

This paper presents a performance analysis of a baseband multiple-input single-output ultra-wideband system over scenarios CM1 and CM3 of the IEEE 802.15.3a channel model, incorporating four different schemes of pre-distortion: time reversal, zero-forcing pre-equaliser, constrained least squares pre-equaliser, and minimum mean square error pre-equaliser. For the third case, a simple solution based on the steepest-descent (gradient) algorithm is adopted and compared with theoretical results. The channel estimations at the transmitter are assumed to be truncated and noisy. Results show that the constrained least squares algorithm has a good trade-off between intersymbol interference reduction and signal-to-noise ratio preservation, providing a performance comparable to the minimum mean square error method but with lower computational complexity. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An integrated approach for reconstructing surface models of the proximal femur from sparse input data for surgical navigation

A patient-specific surface model of the proximal femur plays an important role in planning and supporting various computer-assisted surgical procedures including total hip replacement, hip resurfacing, and osteotomy of the proximal femur. The common approach to derive 3D models of the proximal femur is to use imaging techniques such as computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). However, the high logistic effort, the extra radiation (CT-imaging), and the large quantity of data to be acquired and processed make them less functional. In this paper, we present an integrated approach using a multi-level point distribution model (ML-PDM) to reconstruct a patient-specific model of the proximal femur from intra-operatively available sparse data. Results of experiments performed on dry cadaveric bones using dozens of 3D points are presented, as well as experiments using a limited number of 2D X-ray images, which demonstrate promising accuracy of the present approach.

Measuring Scale Efficiency from the Translog Multi-Input, Multi-Output Distance Function

Ray (1998) developed measures of input- and output-oriented scale efficiency that can be directly computed from an estimated Translog frontier production function. This note extends the earlier results from Ray (1998) to the multiple-output multiple input case.

The Directional Distance Function and Measurement of Super-Efficiency: An Application to Airlines Data

Lovell and Rouse (LR) have recently proposed a modification of the standard DEA model that overcomes the infeasibility problem often encountered in computing super-efficiency. In the LR procedure one appropriately scales up the observed input vector (scale down the output vector) of the relevant super-efficient firm thereby usually creating its inefficient surrogate. An alternative procedure proposed in this paper uses the directional distance function introduced by Chambers, Chung, and Färe and the resulting Nerlove-Luenberger (NL) measure of super-efficiency. The fact that the directional distance function combines features of both an input-oriented and an output-oriented model, generally leads to a more complete ranking of the observations than either of the oriented models. An added advantage of this approach is that the NL super-efficiency measure is unique and does not depend on any arbitrary choice of a scaling parameter. A data set on international airlines from Coelli, Perelman, and Griffel-Tatje (2002) is utilized in an illustrative empirical application.

Inflation Targeting and Output Growth: Evidence from Aggregate European Data

This paper evaluates inflation targeting and assesses its merits by comparing alternative targets in a macroeconomic model. We use European aggregate data to evaluate the performance of alternative policy rules under alternative inflation targets in terms of output losses. We employ two major alternative policy rules, forward-looking and spontaneous adjustment, and three alternative inflation targets, zero percent, two percent, and four percent inflation rates. The simulation findings suggest that forward-looking rules contributed to macroeconomic stability and increase monetary policy credibility. The superiority of a positive inflation target, in terms of output losses, emerges for the aggregate data. The same methodology, when applied to individual countries, however, suggests that country-specific flexible inflation targeting can improve employment prospects in Europe.

Input Price Variation Across Locations and a Generalized Measure of Cost Efficiency

We propose a nonparametric model for global cost minimization as a framework for optimal allocation of a firm's output target across multiple locations, taking account of differences in input prices and technologies across locations. This should be useful for firms planning production sites within a country and for foreign direct investment decisions by multi-national firms. Two illustrative examples are included. The first example considers the production location decision of a manufacturing firm across a number of adjacent states of the US. In the other example, we consider the optimal allocation of US and Canadian automobile manufacturers across the two countries.