A dimensionless number for understanding the evolutionary dynamics of antigenically variable RNA viruses.

Antigenically variable RNA viruses are significant contributors to the burden of infectious disease worldwide. One reason for their ubiquity is their ability to escape herd immunity through rapid antigenic evolution and thereby to reinfect previously infected hosts. However, the ways in which these viruses evolve antigenically are highly diverse. Some have only limited diversity in the long-run, with every emergence of a new antigenic variant coupled with a replacement of the older variant. Other viruses rapidly accumulate antigenic diversity over time. Others still exhibit dynamics that can be considered evolutionary intermediates between these two extremes. Here, we present a theoretical framework that aims to understand these differences in evolutionary patterns by considering a virus's epidemiological dynamics in a given host population. Our framework, based on a dimensionless number, probabilistically anticipates patterns of viral antigenic diversification and thereby quantifies a virus's evolutionary potential. It is therefore similar in spirit to the basic reproduction number, the well-known dimensionless number which quantifies a pathogen's reproductive potential. We further outline how our theoretical framework can be applied to empirical viral systems, using influenza A/H3N2 as a case study. We end with predictions of our framework and work that remains to be done to further integrate viral evolutionary dynamics with disease ecology.

Protocol for the "Implementation, adoption, and utility of family history in diverse care settings" study.

BACKGROUND: Risk assessment with a thorough family health history is recommended by numerous organizations and is now a required component of the annual physical for Medicare beneficiaries under the Affordable Care Act. However, there are several barriers to incorporating robust risk assessments into routine care. MeTree, a web-based patient-facing health risk assessment tool, was developed with the aim of overcoming these barriers. In order to better understand what factors will be instrumental for broader adoption of risk assessment programs like MeTree in clinical settings, we obtained funding to perform a type III hybrid implementation-effectiveness study in primary care clinics at five diverse healthcare systems. Here, we describe the study's protocol. METHODS/DESIGN: MeTree collects personal medical information and a three-generation family health history from patients on 98 conditions. Using algorithms built entirely from current clinical guidelines, it provides clinical decision support to providers and patients on 30 conditions. All adult patients with an upcoming well-visit appointment at one of the 20 intervention clinics are eligible to participate. Patient-oriented risk reports are provided in real time. Provider-oriented risk reports are uploaded to the electronic medical record for review at the time of the appointment. Implementation outcomes are enrollment rate of clinics, providers, and patients (enrolled vs approached) and their representativeness compared to the underlying population. Primary effectiveness outcomes are the percent of participants newly identified as being at increased risk for one of the clinical decision support conditions and the percent with appropriate risk-based screening. Secondary outcomes include percent change in those meeting goals for a healthy lifestyle (diet, exercise, and smoking). Outcomes are measured through electronic medical record data abstraction, patient surveys, and surveys/qualitative interviews of clinical staff. DISCUSSION: This study evaluates factors that are critical to successful implementation of a web-based risk assessment tool into routine clinical care in a variety of healthcare settings. The result will identify resource needs and potential barriers and solutions to implementation in each setting as well as an understanding potential effectiveness. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01956773.

Age-related immune reconstitution during highly active antiretroviral therapy in human immunodeficiency virus type 1-infected children.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the immune reconstitution in HIV-1-infected children in whom highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) controlled viral replication and to assess the existence of a relation between the magnitude of this restoration and age. METHODS: All HIV-1-infected children in whom a new HAART decreased plasma viral load below 400 copies/ml after 3 months of therapy were prospectively enrolled in a study of their immune reconstitution. Viral load, lymphocyte phenotyping, determination of CD4+ and CD8+ T cell receptor repertoires and proliferative responses to mitogens and recall antigens were assessed every 3 months during 1 year. RESULTS: Nineteen children were evaluated. Naive and memory CD4+ percentages were already significantly increased after 3 months of HAART. In contrast to memory CD4+ percentages, naive CD4+ percentages continued to rise until 12 months. Age at baseline was inversely correlated with the magnitude of the rise in naive CD4+ cells after 3, 6 and 9 months of therapy but not after 12 months. Although memory and activated CD8+ cells were already decreasing after 3 months, abnormalities of the CD8 T cell receptor repertoire and activation of CD8+ cells persisted at 1 year. HAART increased the response to mitogens as early as 3 months after starting therapy. CONCLUSIONS: In children the recovery of naive CD4+ cells occurs more rapidly if treatment is started at a younger age, but after 1 year of viral replication control, patients of all ages have achieved the same level of restoration. Markers of chronic activation in CD8+ cells persist after 1 year of HAART.

The interprofessional practitioner: changing professional identity in social work

Twenty years ago the first joint training programme in learning disability nursing and social work was established as a collaborative project to develop practitioners able to work holistically with people with learning disabilities. Since then a number of programmes have continued this work and more recently the approach has developed in the mental health specialism. These programmes have changed the nature of singular social work education and created a new region of knowledge (Bernstein, 2000) for those who have experienced them. What began as a radical experiment in interprofessional education has been sustained by a strong commitment to the belief that the practitioners who qualify from such programmes are well equipped to support people with learning disabilities in changing and multi-professional services. As with much interprofessional education, however, there is an ongoing need to build an evidence base linking such education with successful outcomes in practice. This paper presents and explores the outcomes of a doctoral research study aimed at evaluating the impact of joint training in learning disability nursing and social work on the professional identity, skills and working practices of practitioners who undertook it. The research was undertaken with almost fifty jointly trained practitioners and involved a national survey followed by semi-structured interviews. The results suggest that practitioners who experience the dual socialisation inherent in this type of training found both gains and losses in the process. They appear to emerge, however, with a confidence, resilience and breadth of knowledge which were part of the early vision for this transformative approach to professional training. Bernstein B. (2000). Pedagogy, Symbolic Control and Identity. Theory, Research, Critique. Revised Edition. Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield (USA).

Can diagnostic triage by general practitioners or rheumatology nurses improve the positive predictive value of referrals to early arthritis clinics?

Objectives: To determine whether diagnostic triage by general practitioners (GPs) or rheumatology nurses (RNs) can improve the positive predictive value of referrals to early arthritis clinics (EACs).

Methods: Four GPs and two RNs were trained in the assessment of early in?ammatory arthritis (IA) by four visits to an EAC supervised by hospital rheumatologists. Patients referred to one of three EACs were recruited for study and assessed independently by a GP, an RN and one of six rheumatologists. Each assessor was asked to record their clinical ?ndings and whether they considered the patient to have IA. Each was then asked to judge the appropriateness of the referral according to predetermined guidelines. The rheumatologists had been shown previously to have a satisfactory level of agreement in the assessment of IA.

Results: Ninety-six patients were approached and all consented to take part in the study. In 49 cases (51%), the rheumatologist judged that the patient had IA and that the referral was appropriate. The assessments of GPs and RNs were compared with those of the rheumatologists. Levels of agreement were measured using the kappa value, where 1.0 represents total unanimity. The kappa value was
0.77 for the GPs when compared with the rheumatologists and 0.79 for the RNs. Signi?cant stiffness in the morning or after rest and objective joint swelling were the most important clinical features enabling the GPs and RNs to discriminate between IA and non-IA conditions.

Conclusion: Diagnostic triage by GPs or RNs improved the positive predictive value of referrals to an EAC with a degree of accuracy approaching that of a group of experienced rheumatologists.

Association between polymorphism in regulatory region of gene encoding tumour necrosis factor alpha and risk of Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia: a case-control study

BACKGROUND: Deposition of beta-amyloid in the brains of patients with Alzheimer's disease is thought to precede a chain of events that leads to an inflammatory response by the brain. We postulated that genetic variation in the regulatory region of the gene for the proinflammatory cytokine tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha) leads to increased risk of Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia. METHODS: A polymorphism in the regulatory region of the TNF-alpha gene was analysed in a case-control study. The polymorphism (C-850T) was typed in 242 patients with sporadic Alzheimer's disease, 81 patients with vascular dementia, 61 stroke patients without dementia, and 235 normal controls. These groups of individuals were also genotyped for the apolipoprotein E polymorphism, and the vascular dementia and stroke groups were typed at the HLA-DR locus. FINDINGS: The distribution of TNF-alpha genotypes in the vascular dementia group differed significantly from that in the stroke and normal control groups, giving an odds ratio of 2.51 (95% CI 1.49-4.21) for the development of vascular dementia for individuals with a CT or TT genotype. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the possession of the T allele significantly increased the risk of Alzheimer's disease associated with carriage of the apolipoprotein E epsilon4 allele (odds ratio 2.73 [1.68-4.44] for those with apolipoprotein E epsilon4 but no TNF-alpha T, vs 4.62 [2.38-8.96] for those with apolipoprotein E epsilon4 and TNF-alpha T; p=0.03). INTERPRETATION: Possession of the TNF-alpha T allele significantly increases the risk of vascular dementia, and increases the risk of Alzheimer's disease associated with apolipoprotein E. Although further research is needed, these findings suggest a potential role for anti-inflammatory therapy in vascular dementia and Alzheimer's disease, and perhaps especially in patients who have had a stroke.

Transmission loss allocation in a deregulated electrical energy market

This paper presents a new method for transmission loss allocation in a deregulated electrical power market. The proposed method is based on physical flow through transmission lines. The contributions of individual loads to the line flows are used as basis for allocating transmission losses to different loads. With minimum assumptions, that sound to be reasonable and cannot be rejected, a novel loss allocation formula is derived. The assumptions made are: a number of currents sharing a transmission line distribute themselves over the cross section in the same manner; that distribution causes the minimum possible power loss. Application of the proposed method is straightforward. It requires only a solved power flow and any simple algorithm for power flow tracing. Both active and reactive powers are considered in the loss allocation procedure. Results of application show the accuracy of the proposed method compared with the commonly used procedures.

'An aid to mental health': natural history, alienists and therapeutics in Victorian Scotland

In the nineteenth century natural history was widely regarded as a rational and ‘distracting’ pursuit that countered the ill-effects, physical and mental, of urban life. This familiar argument was not only made by members of naturalists’ societies but was also borrowed and adapted by alienists concerned with the moral treatment of the insane. This paper examines the work of five long-serving superintendents in Victorian Scotland and uncovers the connections made between an interest in natural history and the management of mental disease. In addition to recovering a significant influence on the conduct of several alienists the paper explores arguments made outside the asylum walls in favour of natural history as an aid to mental health. Investigating the promotion of natural history as a therapeutic recreation in Scotland and elsewhere reveals more fully the moral and cultural significance attached to natural history pursuits in the nineteenth century.

Bimanual co-ordination in Huntington's disease

The ability of Huntington's disease patients to co-ordinate their two hands with and without external cueing was investigated. Twelve Huntington's disease patients and sex- and age-matched controls performed a bimanual cranking task at two speeds (0.5 Hz, 1.5 Hz) and phase relationships (in-phase, anti-phase), with and without an external metronome cue. Data were sampled at 200 Hz, and raw displacement data for each hand, mean and standard deviation measures of the relative positions of the two hands and their velocities were then calculated. All participants could perform the in-phase movement, at both speeds; however, the Huntington's disease patients were more variable and less accurate than the control participants, particularly at the fast speed. While controls could perform the anti-phase movement, in which rotation of the cranks differed by 180 degrees at both speeds, Huntington's disease patients were unable to do so at either speed, reverting to the in-phase movement at the slow speed. An external metronome cue did not improve the performance of the Huntington's disease patients, which differentiated this group from patients suffering from Parkinson's disease. The Huntington's disease patients' inability to perform the anti-phase movement may be due to damage to the basal ganglia and its output regions.

'Research Training and Professional Social Work Education: Developing Research-Minded Practice' Social Work Education, .

The movement towards developing practice more firmly grounded on empirical research has, arguably, been one of the most significant international trends in social work during the past decade. However, in the UK the implications of this trend for pedagogical practices and the design of educational programmes have still to be fully explored. This paper reports on the findings of a repeated cross-sectional survey of MSW students in Queen's University Belfast which focused on their perceptions of the value of research training to professional practice. The study, conducted over a four year period, explored students' awareness of the relationship between research and practice and their readiness to engage with research training. The findings suggested that the majority of students perceived research training as a valuable component of professional development. However, the study also found a level of scepticism among students about its practical utility along with some resistance towards actively embracing a research agenda. The paper evaluates the significance of these findings for developing research and evidence-based practice as integral components of the new degrees in social work in the UK and for social work education programmes in other countries aiming to develop research-minded practice.

Secular trends, disease maps and ecological analyses of the incidence of childhood onset type 1 diabetes in Northern Ireland, 1989-2003

Aims To investigate secular trends in the incidence of Type 1 diabetes in Northern Ireland over the period 1989-2003. To highlight geographical variations in the incidence of Type 1 diabetes by producing disease maps and to compare incidence rates by relevant area characteristics.

Infections and vaccinations as risk factors for childhood type I (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus: a multicentre case-control investigation.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To determine if vaccinations and infections are associated with the subsequent risk of Type I (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus in childhood. METHOD: Seven centres in Europe with access to population-based registers of children with Type I diabetes diagnosed under 15 years of age participated in a case-control study of environmental risk factors. Control children were chosen at random in each centre either from population registers or from schools and policlinics. Data on maternal and neonatal infections, common childhood infections and vaccinations were obtained for 900 cases and 2302 control children from hospital and clinic records and from parental responses to a questionnaire or interview. RESULTS: Infections early in the child's life noted in the hospital record were found to be associated with an increased risk of diabetes, although the odds ratio of 1.61 (95% confidence limits 1.11, 2.33) was significant only after adjustment for confounding variables. None of the common childhood infectious diseases was found to be associated with diabetes and neither was there evidence that any common childhood vaccination modified the risk of diabetes. Pre-school day-care attendance, a proxy measure for total infectious disease exposure in early childhood, was found, however, to be inversely associated with diabetes, with a pooled odds ratio of 0.59 (95% confidence limits 0.46, 0.76) after adjustment for confounding variables. CONCLUSION/INTERPRETATION: It seems likely that the explanation for these contrasting findings of an increased risk associated with perinatal infections coupled with a protective effect of pre-school day care lies in the age-dependent modifying influence of infections on the developing immune system.

Development and clinical validation of a loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) method for the rapid detection of Neisseria meningitidis

Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) is an innovative technique that allows the rapid detection of target nucleic acid sequences under isothermal conditions without the need for complex instrumentation. The development, optimization, and clinical validation of a LAMP assay targeting the ctrA gene for the rapid detection of capsular Neisseria meningitidis were described. Highly specific detection of capsular N. meningitidis type strains and clinical isolates was demonstrated, with no cross-reactivity with other Neisseria spp. or with a comprehensive panel of other common human pathogens. The lower limit of detection was 6 ctrA gene copies detectable in 48 min, with positive reactions readily identifiable visually via a simple color change. Higher copy numbers could be detected in as little as 16 min. When applied to a total of 394 clinical specimens, the LAMP assay in comparison to a conventional TaqMan® based real-time polymerase chain reaction system demonstrated a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 98.9% with a ? coefficient of 0.942. The LAMP method represents a rapid, sensitive, and highly specific technique for the detection of N. meningitidis and has the potential to be used as a point-of-care molecular test and in resource-poor settings.