El Nino and arboviral disease prediction

Recent El Nino events have stimulated interest in the development of modeling techniques to forecast extremes of climate and related health events. Previous studies have documented associations between specific climate variables (particularly temperature and rainfall) and outbreaks of arboviral disease. In some countries, such diseases are sensitive to Fl Nino. Here we describe a climate-based model for the prediction of Ross River virus epidemics in Australia. From a literature search and data on case notifications, we determined in which years there were epidemics of Ross River virus in southern Australia between 1928 and 1998. Predictor variables were monthly Southern Oscillation index values for the year of an epidemic or lagged by 1 year. We found that in southeastern states, epidemic years were well predicted by monthly Southern Oscillation index values in January and September in the previous year. The model forecasts that there is a high probability of epidemic Ross River virus in the southern states of Australia in 1999. We conclude that epidemics of arboviral disease can, at least in principle, be predicted on the basis of climate relationships.

Two new arsenate/sulfate-reducing bacteria: mechanisms of arsenate reduction

Two sulfate-reducing bacteria, which also reduce arsenate, were isolated; both organisms oxidized lactate incompletely to acetate. When using lactate as the electron donor, one of these organisms, Desulfomicrobium strain Ben-RB, rapidly reduced (doubling time = 8 h) 5.1 mM arsenate at the same time it reduced sulfate (9.6 mM). Sulfate reduction was not inhibited by the presence of arsenate. Arsenate could act as the terminal electron acceptor in minimal medium (doubling time = 9 h) in the absence of sulfate. Arsenate was reduced by a membrane-bound enzyme that is either a c-type cytochrome or is associated with such a cytochrome; benzyl-viologen- dependent arsenate reductase activity was greater in cells grown with arsenate/sulfate than in cells grown with sulfate only. The second organism, Desulfovibrio strain Ben-RA, also grew (doubling time = 8 h) while reducing arsenate (3.1 mM) and sulfate (8.3 mM) concomitantly. No evidence was found, however, that this organism is able to grow using arsenate as the terminal electron acceptor. Instead, it appears that arsenate reduction by the Desulfovibrio strain Ben-RA is catalyzed by an arsenate reductase that is encoded by a chromosomally-borne gene shown to be homologous to the arsC gene of the Escherichia coli plasmid, R773 ars system.

Subgroup relations: A comparison of mutual intergroup differentiation and common ingroup identity models of prejudice reduction

Two studies examined relations between groups (humanities and math-science students) that implicitly or explicitly share a common superordinate category (university student). In Experiment 1, 178 participants performed a noninteractive decision-making task during which category salience was manipulated in a 2 (superordinate category salience) x 2 (subordinate category salience) between-groups design. Consistent with the mutual intergroup differentiation model, participants for whom both categories were salient exhibited the lowest levels of bias, whereas bias was strongest when the superordinate category alone was made salient. This pattern of results was replicated in Experiment 2 (N = 135). In addition, Experiment 2 demonstrated that members of subgroups that are nested within a superordinate category are more sensitive to how the superordinate category is represented than are members of subgroups that extend beyond the boundaries of the superordinate category.

Between-year fluctuations in schizophrenia birth rate and associations with the Southern Oscillation Index, cloud cover and sunshine

Our group have recently proposed that low prenatal vitamin D may be a risk-modifying factor for schizophrenia. Climate variability impacts on vitamin D levels in a population via fluctuations in the amount of available UV radiation. In order to explore this hypothesis, we examined fluctuations in the birthrates for people with schizophrenia born between 1920 and 1967 and three sets of variables strongly associated with UV radiation. These included: (a) the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a marker of El Nino which is the most prominent meteorological factor that influences Queensland weather: (b) measures of cloud cover and (c) measures of sunshine. Schizophrenia births were extracted from the Queensland Mental Health register and corrected for background population birth rates. Schizophrenia birth rates had several apparently non-random features in common with the SO1. The prominent SO1 fluctuation event that occurred between 1937 and 1943 is congruent with the most prominent fluctuation in schizophrenia birth rates. The relatively flat profile of SOI activity between 1927 and 1936 also corresponds to the flattest period in the schizophrenia time series. Both time series have prominent oscillations in the 3 ~, year range between 1946 and 1960. Significant associations between schizophrenia birth rates and measures of both sunshine and cloud cover were identified,and all three time series shared periodicity in the 3-4 year range. The analyses suggest that the risk of schizophrenia is higher for those born during times of increased cloud cover,reduced sunshine and positive SO1. These ecological analyses provide initial support for the vitamin D hypothesis, however alternative non-genetic candidate exposures also need to be considered. Other sites with year-to-year fluctuations in cloud cover and sunshine should examine patterns of association between these climate variables and schizophrenia birth rates. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Effects of acid treatments of carbon on N2O and NO reduction by carbon-supported copper catalysts

The influences of HCl, HNO3 and HF treatments of carbon on N2O and NO reduction with 20 wt% Cu-loaded activated carbon were studied. The order of activity in both N2O and NO is as follows: Cu20/AC-HNO3>Cu20/AC>Cu20/AC-HF>Cu20/AC-HCl. The same sequence was also observed for the amount of CO2 evolved during TPD experiments of supports acid for the catalyst dispersion. On the other hand, N2O exhibited a higher reaction rate than NO and a higher sensitivity to acid treatments, and the presence of gas-phase O-2 had opposite effects in N2O and NO reduction. The key role of carbon surface chemistry is examined to rationalize these findings and the relevant mechanistic and practical implications are discussed. The effects of oxygen surface groups on the pore structure of supports and catalysts are also analyzed, (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inequitable distribution of general practitioners in Australia: estimating need through the Robin Hood Index

Objective: From Census data, to document the distribution of general practitioners in Australia and to estimate the number of general practitioners needed to achieve an equitable distribution accounting for community health need. Methods: Data on location of general practitioners, population size and crude mortality by statistical division (SD) were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The number of patients per general practitioner by SD was calculated and plotted. Using crude mortality to estimate community health need, a ratio of the number of general practitioners per person:mortality was calculated for all Australia and for each SD (the Robin Hood Index). From this, the number of general practitioners needed to achieve equity was calculated. Results: In all, 26,290 general practitioners were identified in 57 SDs. The mean number of people per general practitioner is 707, ranging from 551 to 1887. Capital city SDs have most favourable ratios. The Robin Hood Index for Australia is 1, and ranges from 0.32 (relatively under-served) to 2.46 (relatively over-served). Twelve SDs (21%) including all capital cities and 65% of all Australians, have a Robin Hood Index > 1. To achieve equity per capita 2489 more general practitioners (10% of the current workforce) are needed. To achieve equity by the Robin Hood Index 3351 (13% of the current workforce) are needed. Conclusions: The distribution of general practitioners in Australia is skewed. Nonmetropolitan areas are relatively underserved. Census data and the Robin Hood Index could provide a simple means of identifying areas of need in Australia.

Long range forecasts of the numbers of Helicoverpa punctigera and H-armigera (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in Australia using the Southern Oscillation Index and the Sea Surface Temperature

The use of long-term forecasts of pest pressure is central to better pest management. We relate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to long-term light-trap catches of the two key moth pests of Australian agriculture, Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hubner), at Narrabri, New South Wales over 11 years, and for H. punctigera only at Turretfield, South Australia over 22 years. At Narrabri, the size of the first spring generation of both species was significantly correlated with the SOI in certain months, sometimes up to 15 months before the date of trapping. Differences in the SOI and SST between significant months were used to build composite variables in multiple regressions which gave fitted values of the trap catches to less than 25% of the observed values. The regressions suggested that useful forecasts of both species could be made 6-15 months ahead. The influence of the two weather variables on trap catches of H. punctigera at Turretfield were not as strong as at Narrabri, probably because the SOI was not as strongly related to rainfall in southern Australia as it is in eastern Australia. The best fits were again given by multiple regressions with SOI plus SST variables, to within 40% of the observed values. The reliability of both variables as predictors of moth numbers may be limited by the lack of stability in the SOI-rainfall correlation over the historical record. As no other data set is available to test the regressions, they can only be tested by future use. The use of long-term forecasts in pest management is discussed, and preliminary analyses of other long sets of insect numbers suggest that the Southern Oscillation Index may be a useful predictor of insect numbers in other parts of the world.

Adhesion of microbes using 3-aminopropyl triethoxy silane and specimen stabilisation techniques for analytical transmission electron microscopy

A variety of adhesive support-films were tested for their ability to adhere various biological specimens for transmission electron microscopy. Support films primed with 3-amino-propyl triethoxy silane (APTES), poly-L-lysine, carbon and ultraviolet-B (UV-B)-irradiated carbon were tested for their ability to adhere a variety of biological specimens including axenic cultures of Bacillus subtilis and Escherichia coli and wild-type magnetotactic bacteria. The effects of UV-B irradiation on the support film in the presence of air and electrostatic charge on primer deposition were tested and the stability of adhered specimens on various surfaces was also compared. APTES-primed UV-B-irradiated Pioloform(TM) was consistently the best adhesive, especially for large cells, and when adhered specimens were UV-B irradiated they became remarkably stable under an electron beam. This assisted the acquisition of in situ phase-contrast lattice images from a variety of biominerals in magnetotactic bacteria, in particular metastable greigite magnetosomes. Washing tests indicated that specimens adhering to APTES-primed UV-B-irradiated Pioloform(TM) were covalently coupled. The electron beam stability was hypothesised to be the result of mechanical strengthening of the specimen and support film and the reduced electrical resistance in the specimen and support film due to their polymerization and covalent coupling.

The line structure of balanced ternary designs with block size three, index three and rho(2) = 1, 2

In this paper necessary and sufficient conditions for a vector to be the fine structure of a balanced ternary design with block size 3, index 3 and rho(2) = 1 and 2 are determined with one unresolved case.

Relationships between body mass index and well-being in young Australian women

OBJECTIVE: To explore relationships between body mass index (BMI, kg/m(2)) and indicators of health and well-being in young Australian women. DESIGN: Population based cohort study-baseline cross sectional data. SUBJECTS: 14,779 women aged 18-23 who participated in the baseline survey of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health in 1996. MEASUREMENTS: Self-reported height, weight, medical conditions, symptoms and SF-36. RESULTS: The majority of women (68%) had a BMI in the range 18.5-

Experimental methods for studying drug uptake in the head and brain

A number of techniques have been developed to study the disposition of drugs in the head and, in particular, the role of the blood-brain barrier (BBB) in drug uptake. The techniques can be divided into three groups: in-vitro, in-vivo and in-situ. The most suitable method depends on the purpose(s) and requirements of the particular study being conducted. In-vitro techniques involve the isolation of cerebral endothelial cells so that direct investigations of these cells can be carried out. The most recent preparations are able to maintain structural and functional characteristics of the BBB by simultaneously culturing endothelial cells with astrocytic cells,The main advantages of the in-vitro methods are the elimination of anaesthetics and surgery. In-vivo methods consist of a diverse range of techniques and include the traditional Brain Uptake Index and indicator diffusion methods, as well as microdialysis and positron emission tomography. In-vivo methods maintain the cells and vasculature of an organ in their normal physiological states and anatomical position within the animal. However, the shortcomings include renal acid hepatic elimination of solutes as well as the inability to control blood flow. In-situ techniques, including the perfused head, are more technically demanding. However, these models have the ability to vary the composition and flow rate of the artificial perfusate. This review is intended as a guide for selecting the most appropriate method for studying drug uptake in the brain.

Weight reduction improves biochemistry and histology in patients with chronic hepatitis C

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major cause of chronic liver disease that may progress to cirrhosis. Antiviral treatment is successful in less than 50% of patients, is costly and causes debilitating side effects. For these reasons, additional therapies to limit the progression of liver disease are urgently required. Steatosis is found in 60% of patients with HCV and is strongly associated with more severe fibrosis. Improvements in biochemical parameters may be seen with weight reduction, however the effects on liver histology have not been investigated. We propose that in patients with chronic HCV and steatosis, obesity contributes to fat in the liver, which results in increased fibrosis and progression to cirrhosis. This study investigated the effect of weight reduction on liver biochemistry and histology in patients with HCV and the success of weight maintenance after an intensive intervention. We examined the effect of a 12 week diet and exercise program where all subjects were seen weekly by the Dietician, with the goal of achieving a 0.5 kg weight loss per week. Biochemistry was monitored monthly and a liver biopsy was performed prior to and 3-6 months after the intervention period. Patients then entered a 12 month weight maintenance program with monthly dietetic review. After 12 weeks there was a mean weight loss of 5.9 ± 3.2 kg and a mean reduction in waist circumference of 9.0 ± 5.0 cm. In 16 of the 19 patients, serum ALT levels fell progressively with weight loss. Mean fasting insulin fell from 16 to 11 mmol/L (p

Epidural anaesthesia and analgesia and outcome of major surgery: a randomised trial

Background Epidural block is widely used to manage major abdominal surgery and postoperative analgesia, but its risks. and benefits are uncertain. We compared adverse outcomes in high-risk patients managed for major surgery with epidural block or alternative analgesic regimens with general anaesthesia in a multicentre randomised trial. Methods 915 patients undergoing major abdominal surgery with one of nine defined comorbid states to identify high-risk status were randomly assigned intraoperative epidural anaesthesia and postoperative epidural analgesia for 72 h with general anaesthesia (site of epidural selected to provide optimum block) or control. The primary endpoint was death at 30 days or major postsurgical morbidity. Analysis by intention to treat involved 447 patients assigned epidural and 441 control. Findings 255 patients (57.1%) in the epidural group and 268 (60.7%) in the control group had at least one morbidity endpoint or died (p=0.29). Mortality at 30 days was low in both groups (epidural 23 [5.1%], control 19 [4.3%], p=0.67). Only one of eight categories of morbid endpoints in individual systems (respiratory failure) occurred less frequently in patients managed with epidural techniques (23% vs 30%, p=0.02). Postoperative epidural analgesia was associated with lower pain scores during the first 3 postoperative days. There were no major adverse consequences of epidural-catheter insertion. Interpretation Most adverse morbid outcomes in high-risk patients undergoing major abdominal surgery are not reduced by use of combined epidural and general anaesthesia and postoperative epidural analgesia. However, the improvement in analgesia, reduction in respiratory failure, and the low risk of serious adverse consequences suggest that many high-risk patients undergoing major intra-abdominal surgery will receive substantial benefit from combined general and epidural anaesthesia intraoperatively with continuing postoperative epidural analgesia.