Predicting Growth of Panicum maximum: An Adaptation of the CROPGRO-Perennial Forage Model

Warm-season grasses are economically important for cattle production in tropical regions and tools to aid in management and research on these forages would be highly beneficial both in research and the industry. This research was conducted to adapt the CROPGRO-Perennial Forage model to simulate growth of the tropical species guineagrass (Panicum maximum Jacq. cv. 'Tanzania') and to describe model adaptation for this species. To develop the CROPGRO parameters for this species, we began with values and relationships reported in the literature. Some parameters and relationships were calibrated by comparison with observed growth, development, dry matter accumulation, and partitioning during a 17-mo experiment with Tanzania guineagrass in Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. Compared with starting parameters for palisadegrass [Brachiaria brizantha (A. Rich.) Stapf. cv. 'Xaraes'], dormancy effects of the perennial forage model had to be minimized, partitioning to storage tissue or root decreased, and partitioning to leaf and stem increased to provide for more leaf and stem growth and less root. Parameters affecting specific leaf area and senescence of plant tissues were improved. After these changes were made to the model, biomass accumulation was better simulated, mean predicted herbage yield was 6576 kg ha(-1), averaged across 11 regrowth cycles of 35 (summer) or 63 d (winter), with a RMSE of 494 kg ha(-1) (Willmott's index of agreement d = 0.985, simulated/observed ratio = 1.014). The model also gave good predictions against an independent data set, with similar RMSE, ratio, and d. The results of the adaptation suggest that the CROPGRO model is an efficient tool to integrate physiological aspects of guineagrass and can be used to simulate growth.

Anomalous centrality evolution of two-particle angular correlations from Au-Au collisions at root s(NN)=62 and 200 GeV

We present two-dimensional (2D) two-particle angular correlations measured with the STAR detector on relative pseudorapidity eta and azimuth phi for charged particles from Au-Au collisions at root s(NN) = 62 and 200 GeV with transverse momentum p(t) >= 0.15 GeV/c, vertical bar eta vertical bar <= 1, and 2 pi in azimuth. Observed correlations include a same-side (relative azimuth <pi/2) 2D peak, a closely related away-side azimuth dipole, and an azimuth quadrupole conventionally associated with elliptic flow. The same-side 2D peak and away-side dipole are explained by semihard parton scattering and fragmentation (minijets) in proton-proton and peripheral nucleus-nucleus collisions. Those structures follow N-N binary-collision scaling in Au-Au collisions until midcentrality, where a transition to a qualitatively different centrality trend occurs within one 10% centrality bin. Above the transition point the number of same-side and away-side correlated pairs increases rapidly relative to binary-collision scaling, the eta width of the same-side 2D peak also increases rapidly (eta elongation), and the phi width actually decreases significantly. Those centrality trends are in marked contrast with conventional expectations for jet quenching in a dense medium. The observed centrality trends are compared to perturbative QCD predictions computed in HIJING, which serve as a theoretical baseline, and to the expected trends for semihard parton scattering and fragmentation in a thermalized opaque medium predicted by theoretical calculations and phenomenological models. We are unable to reconcile a semihard parton scattering and fragmentation origin for the observed correlation structure and centrality trends with heavy-ion collision scenarios that invoke rapid parton thermalization. If the collision system turns out to be effectively opaque to few-GeV partons the present observations would be inconsistent with the minijet picture discussed here. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevC.86.064902

Four-gene expression model predictive of lymph node metastases in oral squamous cell carcinoma

Background. Previous knowledge of cervical lymph node compromise may be crucial to choose the best treatment strategy in oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Here we propose a set four genes, whose mRNA expression in the primary tumor predicts nodal status in OSCC, excluding tongue. Material and methods. We identified differentially expressed genes in OSCC with and without compromised lymph nodes using Differential Display RT-PCR. Known genes were chosen to be validated by means of Northern blotting or real time RT-PCR (qRT-PCR). Thereafter we constructed a Nodal Index (NI) using discriminant analysis in a learning set of 35 patients, which was further validated in a second independent group of 20 patients. Results. Of the 63 differentially expressed known genes identified comparing three lymph node positive (pN+) and three negative (pN0) primary tumors, 23 were analyzed by Northern analysis or RT-PCR in 49 primary tumors. Six genes confirmed as differentially expressed were used to construct a NI, as the best set predictive of lymph nodal status, with the final result including four genes. The NI was able to correctly classify 32 of 35 patients comprising the learning group (88.6%; p = 0.009). Casein kinase 1alpha1 and scavenger receptor class B, member 2 were found to be up regulated in pN + group in contrast to small proline-rich protein 2B and Ras-GTPase activating protein SH3 domain-binding protein 2 which were upregulated in the pN0 group. We validated further our NI in an independent set of 20 primary tumors, 11 of them pN0 and nine pN+ with an accuracy of 80.0% (p = 0.012). Conclusions. The NI was an independent predictor of compromised lymph nodes, taking into the consideration tumor size and histological grade. The genes identified here that integrate our "Nodal Index" model are predictive of lymph node metastasis in OSCC.

The polysurvival model with long-term survivors

Long-term survival models have historically been considered for analyzing time-to-event data with long-term survivors fraction. However, situations in which a fraction (1 - p) of systems is subject to failure from independent competing causes of failure, while the remaining proportion p is cured or has not presented the event of interest during the time period of the study, have not been fully considered in the literature. In order to accommodate such situations, we present in this paper a new long-term survival model. Maximum likelihood estimation procedure is discussed as well as interval estimation and hypothesis tests. A real dataset illustrates the methodology.

A spatial stochastic model for rumor transmission

We consider an interacting particle system representing the spread of a rumor by agents on the d-dimensional integer lattice. Each agent may be in any of the three states belonging to the set {0,1,2}. Here 0 stands for ignorants, 1 for spreaders and 2 for stiflers. A spreader tells the rumor to any of its (nearest) ignorant neighbors at rate lambda. At rate alpha a spreader becomes a stifler due to the action of other (nearest neighbor) spreaders. Finally, spreaders and stiflers forget the rumor at rate one. We study sufficient conditions under which the rumor either becomes extinct or survives with positive probability.

A General Latent Class Model for Performance Evaluation of Diagnostic Tests in the Absence of a Gold Standard: An Application to Chagas Disease

We propose a new general Bayesian latent class model for evaluation of the performance of multiple diagnostic tests in situations in which no gold standard test exists based on a computationally intensive approach. The modeling represents an interesting and suitable alternative to models with complex structures that involve the general case of several conditionally independent diagnostic tests, covariates, and strata with different disease prevalences. The technique of stratifying the population according to different disease prevalence rates does not add further marked complexity to the modeling, but it makes the model more flexible and interpretable. To illustrate the general model proposed, we evaluate the performance of six diagnostic screening tests for Chagas disease considering some epidemiological variables. Serology at the time of donation (negative, positive, inconclusive) was considered as a factor of stratification in the model. The general model with stratification of the population performed better in comparison with its concurrents without stratification. The group formed by the testing laboratory Biomanguinhos FIOCRUZ-kit (c-ELISA and rec-ELISA) is the best option in the confirmation process by presenting false-negative rate of 0.0002% from the serial scheme. We are 100% sure that the donor is healthy when these two tests have negative results and he is chagasic when they have positive results.

Generalized Metropolis dynamics with a generalized master equation: An approach for time-independent and time-dependent Monte Carlo simulations of generalized spin systems

The extension of Boltzmann-Gibbs thermostatistics, proposed by Tsallis, introduces an additional parameter q to the inverse temperature beta. Here, we show that a previously introduced generalized Metropolis dynamics to evolve spin models is not local and does not obey the detailed energy balance. In this dynamics, locality is only retrieved for q = 1, which corresponds to the standard Metropolis algorithm. Nonlocality implies very time-consuming computer calculations, since the energy of the whole system must be reevaluated when a single spin is flipped. To circumvent this costly calculation, we propose a generalized master equation, which gives rise to a local generalized Metropolis dynamics that obeys the detailed energy balance. To compare the different critical values obtained with other generalized dynamics, we perform Monte Carlo simulations in equilibrium for the Ising model. By using short-time nonequilibrium numerical simulations, we also calculate for this model the critical temperature and the static and dynamical critical exponents as functions of q. Even for q not equal 1, we show that suitable time-evolving power laws can be found for each initial condition. Our numerical experiments corroborate the literature results when we use nonlocal dynamics, showing that short-time parameter determination works also in this case. However, the dynamics governed by the new master equation leads to different results for critical temperatures and also the critical exponents affecting universality classes. We further propose a simple algorithm to optimize modeling the time evolution with a power law, considering in a log-log plot two successive refinements.

Exact correlation functions in particle-reaction models with immobile particles

Exact results on particle densities as well as correlators in two models of immobile particles, containing either a single species or else two distinct species, are derived. The models evolve following a descent dynamics through pair annihilation where each particle interacts once at most throughout its entire history. The resulting large number of stationary states leads to a non-vanishing configurational entropy. Our results are established for arbitrary initial conditions and are derived via a generating function method. The single-species model is the dual of the 1D zero-temperature kinetic Ising model with Kimball-Deker-Haake dynamics. In this way, both in finite and semi-infinite chains and also the Bethe lattice can be analysed. The relationship with the random sequential adsorption of dimers and weakly tapped granular materials is discussed.

Cash balance management: A comparison between genetic algorithms and particle swarm optimization

This work aimed to apply genetic algorithms (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) in cash balance management using Miller-Orr model, which consists in a stochastic model that does not define a single ideal point for cash balance, but an oscillation range between a lower bound, an ideal balance and an upper bound. Thus, this paper proposes the application of GA and PSO to minimize the Total Cost of cash maintenance, obtaining the parameter of the lower bound of the Miller-Orr model, using for this the assumptions presented in literature. Computational experiments were applied in the development and validation of the models. The results indicated that both the GA and PSO are applicable in determining the cash level from the lower limit, with best results of PSO model, which had not yet been applied in this type of problem.

New activity in the large circumstellar disk of the Be-shell star 48 Librae

Aims. Spectroscopic, polarimetric, and high spectral resolution interferometric data covering the period 1995-2011 are analyzed to document the transition into a new phase of circumstellar disk activity in the classical Be-shell star 48 Lib. The objective is to use this broad data set to additionally test disk oscillations as the basic underlying dynamical process. Methods. The long-term disk evolution is described using the V/R ratio of the violet and red emission components of H alpha and Br gamma, radial velocities and profiles of He I and optical metal shell lines, as well as multi-band BVRI polarimetry. Single-epoch broad-band and high-resolution interferometric visibilities and phases are discussed with respect to a classical disk model and the given baseline orientations. Results. Spectroscopic signatures of disk asymmetries in 48 Lib vanished in the late nineties but recovered some time between 2004 and 2007, as shown by a new large-amplitude and long-duration V/R cycle. Variations in the radial velocity and line profile of conventional shell lines correlate with the V/R behavior. They are shared by narrow absorption cores superimposed on otherwise seemingly photospheric He I lines, which may form in high-density gas at the inner disk close to the photosphere. Large radial velocity variations continued also during the V/R-quiet years, suggesting that V/R may not always be a good indicator of global density waves in the disk. The comparison of the polarization after the recovery of the V/R activity shows a slight increase, while the polarization angle has been constant for more than 20 years, placing tight limits on any 3-D precession or warping of the disk. The broad H-band interferometry gives a disk diameter of (1.72 +/- 0.2) mas (equivalent to 15 stellar radii), position angle of the disk (50 +/- 9)degrees and a relatively low disk flattening of 1.66 +/- 0.3. Within the errors the same disk position angle is derived from polarimetric observations and from photocenter shifts across Br gamma. The high-resolution interferometric visibility and phase profiles show a double or even multiple-component structure. A preliminary estimate based on the size of the Br gamma emitting region indicates a large diameter for the disk (tens of stellar radii). Overall, no serious contradiction between the observations and the disk-oscillation model could be construed.

Interacting model for the cosmological dark sector

We discuss a new interacting model for the cosmological dark sector in which the attenuated dilution of cold dark matter scales as a(-3)f(a), where f(a) is an arbitrary function of the cosmic scale factor a. From thermodynamic arguments, we show that f(a) is proportional to the entropy source of the particle creation process. In order to investigate the cosmological consequences of this kind of interacting models, we expand f(a) in a power series, and viable cosmological solutions are obtained. Finally, we use current observational data to place constraints on the interacting function f(a).

Molecular Dynamics Investigations of PRODAN in a DLPC Bilayer

Molecular dynamics computer simulations have been performed to identify preferred positions of the fluorescent probe PRODAN in a fully hydrated DLPC bilayer in the fluid phase. In addition to the intramolecular charge-transfer first vertical excited state, we considered different charge distributions for the electronic ground state of the PRODAN molecule by distinct atomic charge models corresponding to the probe molecule in vacuum as well as polarized in a weak and a strong dielectric solvent (cyclohexane and water). Independent on the charge distribution model of PRODAN, we observed a preferential orientation of this molecule in the bilayer with the dimethylamino group pointing toward the membrane's center and the carbonyl oxygen toward the membrane's interface. However, changing the charge distribution model of PRODAN, independent of its initial position in the equilibrated DLPC membrane, we observed different preferential positions. For the ground state representation without polarization and the in-cyclohexane polarization, the probe maintains its position close to the membrane's center. Considering the in-water polarization model, the probe approaches more of the polar headgroup region of the bilayer, with a strong structural correlation with the choline group, exposing its oxygen atom to water molecules. PRODAN's representation of the first vertical excited state with the in-water polarization also approaches the polar region of the membrane with the oxygen atom exposed to the bilayer's hydration shell. However, this model presents a stronger structural correlation with the phosphate groups than the ground state. Therefore, we conclude that the orientation of the PRODAN molecule inside the DLPC membrane is well-defined, but its position is very sensitive to the effect of the medium polarization included here by different models for the atomic charge distribution of the probe.

Design of laminated piezocomposite shell transducers with arbitrary fiber orientation using topology optimization approach

Sensor and actuator based on laminated piezocomposite shells have shown increasing demand in the field of smart structures. The distribution of piezoelectric material within material layers affects the performance of these structures; therefore, its amount, shape, size, placement, and polarization should be simultaneously considered in an optimization problem. In addition, previous works suggest the concept of laminated piezocomposite structure that includes fiber-reinforced composite layer can increase the performance of these piezoelectric transducers; however, the design optimization of these devices has not been fully explored yet. Thus, this work aims the development of a methodology using topology optimization techniques for static design of laminated piezocomposite shell structures by considering the optimization of piezoelectric material and polarization distributions together with the optimization of the fiber angle of the composite orthotropic layers, which is free to assume different values along the same composite layer. The finite element model is based on the laminated piezoelectric shell theory, using the degenerate three-dimensional solid approach and first-order shell theory kinematics that accounts for the transverse shear deformation and rotary inertia effects. The topology optimization formulation is implemented by combining the piezoelectric material with penalization and polarization model and the discrete material optimization, where the design variables describe the amount of piezoelectric material and polarization sign at each finite element, with the fiber angles, respectively. Three different objective functions are formulated for the design of actuators, sensors, and energy harvesters. Results of laminated piezocomposite shell transducers are presented to illustrate the method. Copyright (C) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Biogeographic and diversification patterns of Neotropical Troidini butterflies (Papilionidae) support a museum model of diversity dynamics for Amazonia

Background: The temporal and geographical diversification of Neotropical insects remains poorly understood because of the complex changes in geological and climatic conditions that occurred during the Cenozoic. To better understand extant patterns in Neotropical biodiversity, we investigated the evolutionary history of three Neotropical swallowtail Troidini genera (Papilionidae). First, DNA-based species delimitation analyses were conducted to assess species boundaries within Neotropical Troidini using an enlarged fragment of the standard barcode gene. Molecularly delineated species were then used to infer a time-calibrated species-level phylogeny based on a three-gene dataset and Bayesian dating analyses. The corresponding chronogram was used to explore their temporal and geographical diversification through distinct likelihood-based methods. Results: The phylogeny for Neotropical Troidini was well resolved and strongly supported. Molecular dating and biogeographic analyses indicate that the extant lineages of Neotropical Troidini have a late Eocene (33-42 Ma) origin in North America. Two independent lineages (Battus and Euryades + Parides) reached South America via the GAARlandia temporary connection, and later became extinct in North America. They only began substantive diversification during the early Miocene in Amazonia. Macroevolutionary analysis supports the "museum model" of diversification, rather than Pleistocene refugia, as the best explanation for the diversification of these lineages. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that: (i) current Neotropical biodiversity may have originated ex situ; (ii) the GAARlandia bridge was important in facilitating invasions of South America; (iii) colonization of Amazonia initiated the crown diversification of these swallowtails; and (iv) Amazonia is not only a species-rich region but also acted as a sanctuary for the dynamics of this diversity. In particular, Amazonia probably allowed the persistence of old lineages and contributed to the steady accumulation of diversity over time with constant net diversification rates, a result that contrasts with previous studies on other South American butterflies.

Particle Acceleration in Turbulence and Weakly Stochastic Reconnection

In this Letter we analyze the energy distribution evolution of test particles injected in three dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of different magnetic reconnection configurations. When considering a single Sweet-Parker topology, the particles accelerate predominantly through a first-order Fermi process, as predicted in [3] and demonstrated numerically in [8]. When turbulence is included within the current sheet, the acceleration rate is highly enhanced, because reconnection becomes fast and independent of resistivity [4,11] and allows the formation of a thick volume filled with multiple simultaneously reconnecting magnetic fluxes. Charged particles trapped within this volume suffer several head-on scatterings with the contracting magnetic fluctuations, which significantly increase the acceleration rate and results in a first-order Fermi process. For comparison, we also tested acceleration in MHD turbulence, where particles suffer collisions with approaching and receding magnetic irregularities, resulting in a reduced acceleration rate. We argue that the dominant acceleration mechanism approaches a second order Fermi process in this case.