Hydrologic unit map--1974, State of New Jersey.

Scale 1:500,000; 1 in. equals approx. 8 miles.

Reservoir system analysis, conservation : Hydrologic Engineering Center computer program 23-J2-L253.

At head of cover title: Generalized computer program.

FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

The role of microcomputer-based laboratory display in supporting the construction of new understanding in kinematics

Teachers' failure to utilise MBL activities more widely may be due to not recognising their capacity to transform the nature of laboratory activities to be more consistent with contemporary constructivist theories of learning. This research aimed to increase understanding of how MBL activities specifically designed to be consistent with a constructivist theory of learning support or constrain student construction of understanding. The first author conducted the research with his Year 11 physics class of 29 students. Dyads completed nine tasks relating to kinematics using a Predict-Observe-Explain format. Data sources included video and audio recordings of students and teacher during four 70-minute sessions, students' display graphs and written notes, semi-structured student interviews, and the teacher's journal. The study identifies the actors and describes the patterns of interactions in the MBL. Analysis of students' discourse and actions identified many instances where students' initial understanding of kinematics were mediated in multiple ways. Students invented numerous techniques for manipulating data in the service of their emerging understanding. The findings are presented as eight assertions. Recommendations are made for developing pedagogical strategies incorporating MBL activities which will likely catalyse student construction of understanding.

Identifying and implementing adaptive strategy in the U.S. military

Changes in the environment, including increased environmental complexity, require military supply units to employ a more adaptive strategy in order to enhance military agility. We extend the Lumpkin and Dess (1996) model and develop propositions that explore the interrelationships between/amongst entrepreneurial orientation (EO); opportunity recognition, evaluation and exploitation; environmental and organizational factors; and organizational performance. We propose that the innovativeness, proactiveness, and risk-taking dimensions of EO are of primary importance in identifying adaptive solutions and that these relationships are moderated by environmental factors. The autonomy and competitive aggressiveness dimensions of EO are important in implementing solutions as adaptive strategies, especially in a military context, and these relationships are moderated by organizational factors. This chapter extends existing theory developed primarily for the civilian sector to the military. Military organizations are more rigid hierarchical structures, and have different measures of performance. At an applied level, this research provides insights for military commanders that can potentially enhance agility and adaptability.

The role of timber plantations in U.K. investment portfolios

Although timber plantations and forests are classified as forms of agricultural production, the ownership of this land classification is not limited to rural producers. Timber plantations and forests are now regarded as a long-term investment with both institutional and absentee owners. While the NCREIF property indices have been the benchmarks for the measurement of the performance of the commercial property market in the UK, for many years the IPD timberland index has recently emerged as the U.K. forest and timberland performance indicator. The IPD Forest index incorporates 126 properties over five regions in the U.K. This paper will utilise the IPD Forestry Index to examine the performance of U.K. timber plantations and forests over the period 1981-2004. In particular, issues to be critically assessed include plantation and forest performance analysis, comparative investment analysis, and the role of plantations and forests in investment portfolios, the risk reduction and portfolio benefits of plantations and forests in mixed-asset portfolios and the strategic investment significance of U.K. timberlands.

Intercomparison study of six HTDMAs: results and recommendations

We report on an inter-comparison of six different hygroscopicity tandem differential mobility analysers (HTDMAs). These HTDMAs are used worldwide in laboratories and in field campaigns to measure the water uptake of aerosol particles and were never intercompared. After an investigation of the different design of the instruments with their advantages and inconveniencies, the methods for calibration, validation and analysis are presented. Measurements of nebulised ammonium sulphate as well as of secondary organic aerosol generated from a smog chamber were performed. Agreement and discrepancies between the instrument and to the theory are discussed, and final recommendations for a standard instrument are given, as a benchmark for laboratory or field experiments to ensure a high quality of HTDMA data.

Vibrational spectroscopic studies of laboratory scale polymer melt processing : application to a thermoplastic polyurethane nanocomposite

A laboratory scale twin screw extruder has been interfaced with a near infrared (NIR) spectrometer via a fibre optic link so that NIR spectra can be collected continuously during the small scale experimental melt state processing of polymeric materials. This system can be used to investigate melt state processes such as reactive extrusion, in real time, in order to explore the kinetics and mechanism of the reaction. A further advantage of the system is that it has the capability to measure apparent viscosity simultaneously which gives important additional information about molecular weight changes and polymer degradation during processing. The system was used to study the melt processing of a nanocomposite consisting of a thermoplastic polyurethane and an organically modified layered silicate.