A deterministic model to assess the impact of AIDS interventions in countries with generalized HIV epidemic. An application to Botswana

General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

The hope for an HIV vaccine based on induction of CD8+ T lymphocytes: a review

The only long-term and cost-effective solution to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic in the developing world is a vaccine that prevents individuals from becoming infected or, once infected, from passing the virus on to others. There is currently little hope for an AIDS vaccine. Conventional attempts to induce protective antibody and CD8+ lymphocyte responses against HIV and simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) have failed. The enormous diversity of the virus has only recently been appreciated by vaccinologists, and our assays to determine CD8+ lymphocyte antiviral efficacy are inadequate. The central hypothesis of a CTL-based vaccine is that particularly effective CD8+ lymphocytes directed against at least five epitopes that are derived from regions under functional and structural constraints will control replication of pathogenic SIV. This would be somewhat analogous to control of virus replication by triple drug therapy or neutralizing antibodies.

Prevalence of HIV type 1 drug resistance mutations in treatment-naïve and experienced patients from resource-limited settings with universal access to antiretroviral therapy: a survey in two small Brazilian cities

Concerns have been raised that universal availability of antiretroviral agents in resource-limited settings might lead to the emergence and spread of resistant strains. We present the largest survey on human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) resistance among treatment-naïve and experienced patients followed in small, relatively underprivileged cities in Brazil with universal availability to standard of care antiretroviral combinations. Samples were collected between 2004 and 2006 from 95 patients followed in the cities of Saquarema and Santo Antonio de Pádua, state of Rio de Janeiro. A proviral fragment encompassing protease and reverse transcriptase (RT) regions was generated and drug susceptibility level was inferred. Among 50 strains from drug-naïve subjects, one (2%) had intermediate-level resistance to RT inhibitors. Among 38 patients on therapy as of sampling, 28 (73.7%) had plasma viral load (PVL) below detection limit (26 of whom without evidence of resistance mutations) and 11 (28.9%) harbored strains with reduced susceptibility. Only two strains harbored both protease and RT inhibitor mutations. Among seven patients who were off-treatment as of sampling, two (28.5%) harbored strains with reduced susceptibility to RT inhibitors. The relatively high frequency of undetectable PVL among patients on treatment and the overall low prevalence of resistance-associated mutations are reassuring. Continued surveillance, however, is necessary.

Anti-HSV-1 and anti-HIV-1 activity of gallic acid and pentyl gallate

The synthetic n-alkyl esters of gallic acid (GA), also known as gallates, especially propyl, octyl and dodecyl gallates, are widely employed as antioxidants by food and pharmaceutical industries. The inhibitory effects of GA and 15 gallates on Herpes Simplex Virus type 1 (HSV-1) and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV-1) replication were investigated here. After a preliminary screening of these compounds, GA and pentyl gallate (PG) seemed to be the most active compounds against HSV-1 replication and their mode of action was characterized through a set of assays, which attempted to localize the step of the viral multiplication cycle where impairment occurred. The detected anti-HSV-1 activity was mediated by the inhibition of virus attachment to and penetration into cells, and by virucidal properties. Furthermore, an anti-HIV-1 activity was also found, to different degrees. In summary, our results suggest that both compounds could be regarded as promising candidates for the development of topical anti-HSV-1 agents, and further studies concerning the anti-HIV-1 activity of this group of molecules are merited.

Ankle-brachial index in HIV infection

Prognosis for patients with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has improved with the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Evidence over recent years suggests that the incidence of cardiovascular disease is increasing in HIV patients. The ankle-brachial index (ABI) is a cheap and easy test that has been validated in the general population. Abnormal ABI values are associated with increased cardiovascular mortality. To date, six series of ABI values in persons with HIV have been published, but none was a prospective study. No agreement exists concerning the risk factors for an abnormal ABI, though its prevalence is clearly higher in these patients than in the general population. Whether this higher prevalence of an abnormal ABI is associated with a higher incidence of vascular events remains to be determined.

HIV-1 reverse transcriptase connection domain mutations: dynamics of emergence and implications for success of combination antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: Factors promoting the emergence of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) reverse transcriptase (RT) connection domain mutations and their effect on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are still largely undetermined. We investigated this matter by analyzing genotypic resistance tests covering 400 amino acid positions in the RT of HIV-1 subtype B viruses and corresponding treatment histories and laboratory measurements. METHODS: The emergence of connection domain mutations was studied in 334 patients receiving monotherapy or dual therapy with thymidine analogues at the time of the genotypic resistance test. Response to subsequent combination ART (cART) was analyzed using Cox regression for 291 patients receiving unboosted protease inhibitors. Response was defined by ever reaching an HIV RNA level <50 copies/mL during the first cART. RESULTS: The connection domain mutations N348I, R356K, R358K, A360V, and A371V were more frequently observed in ART-exposed than ART-naive patients, of which only N348I and A360V were nonpolymorphic (with a prevalence of <1.5% in untreated patients). N348I correlated with M184V and predominantly occurred in patients receiving lamivudine and zidovudine concomitantly. A360V was not associated with specific drug combinations and was found to emerge later than M184V or thymidine analogue mutations. Nonpolymorphic connection domain mutations were rarely detected in the absence of established drug resistance mutations in ART-exposed individuals (prevalence, <1%). None of the 5 connection domain mutations associated with treatment showed a statistically significant effect on response to cART. CONCLUSIONS: Despite their frequent emergence, connection domain mutations did not show large detrimental effects on response to cART. Currently, routine implementation of connection domain sequencing seems unnecessary for developed health care settings.

Consensus statement of the European guidelines on clinical management of HIV-1 tropism testing

Introduction: Testing for HIV tropism is recommended before prescribing a chemokine receptor blocker. To date, in most European countries HIV tropism is determined using a phenotypic test. Recently, new data have emerged supporting the use of a genotypic HIV V3-loop sequence analysis as the basis for tropism determination. The European guidelines group on clinical management of HIV-1 tropism testing was established to make recommendations to clinicians and virologists. Methods: We searched online databases for articles from Jan 2006 until March 2010 with the terms: tropism or CCR5-antagonist or CCR5 antagonist or maraviroc or vicriviroc. Additional articles and/or conference abstracts were identified by hand searching. This strategy identified 712 potential articles and 1240 abstracts. All were reviewed and finally 57 papers and 42 abstracts were included and used by the panel to reach a consensus statement. Results: The panel recommends HIV-tropism testing for the following indications: i) drug-naïve patients in whom toxicity or limited therapeutic options are foreseen; ii) patients experiencing therapy failure whenever a treatment change is considered. Both the phenotypic Enhanced Trofile assay (ESTA) and genotypic population sequencing of the V3-loop are recommended for use in clinical practice. Although the panel does not recommend one methodology over another it is anticipated that genotypic testing will be used more frequently because of its greater accessibility, lower cost and shorter turnaround time. The panel also provides guidance on technical aspects and interpretation issues. If using genotypic methods, triplicate PCR amplification and sequencing testing is advised using the G2P interpretation tool (clonal model) with an FPR of 10%. If the viral load is below the level of reliable amplification, proviral DNA can be used, and the panel recommends performing triplicate testing and use of an FPR of 10%. If genotypic DNA testing is not performed in triplicate the FPR should be increased to 20%. Conclusions: The European guidelines on clinical management of HIV-1 tropism testing provide an overview of current literature, evidence-based recommendations for the clinical use of tropism testing and expert guidance on unresolved issues and current developments. Current data support both the use of genotypic population sequencing and ESTA for co-receptor tropism determination. For practical reasons genotypic population sequencing is the preferred method in Europe.

Seroprevalence of HBV, HCV and HIV co-infection in selected individuals from state of São Paulo, Brazil

Few studies are available on hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) co-infection in populations living in small and medium-sized Brazilian cities. We evaluated the seroprevalence of these viruses in selected individuals from a clinic of infectology, who were referred to the University Regional Hospital of the West Region of state of São Paulo, Brazil. Among a total of 7,021 individuals seen in the clinic following receipt of preliminary ELISA results or having the suggested clinical signs of viral hepatitis or HIV, 1,228 were systematically screened. Isolated or associated HBsAg, HCV and HIV antibodies were found in 44.9% of the subjects. Anti-HIV antibodies were found in 24.7% of the patients, 20.3% of whom had an HIV monoinfection and 4.4% of whom were co-infected with hepatitis viruses (HCV: 4%; HBV: 0.4%). Anti-HCV antibodies were found in 14% of the patients and 5.9% had anti-HBsAg antibodies. HCV infection affected males more than females (p < 0.05) and individuals > 50-years old had an increased prevalence of anti-HCV compared to HIV (p = 0.0001) or HBV (p = 0.0063). HCV-RNA was detected in 73.5% of the samples with a predominance of genotype 1 (72.5%). A significant percentage (44.9%) of the selected individuals was positive for antibodies against HBV, HCV and/or HIV; these patients would otherwise have remained undiagnosed.

Phylogenetic reconstruction of transmission events from individuals with acute HIV infection: toward more-rigorous epidemiological definitions.

Phylogenetic reconstructions of transmission events from individuals with acute human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection are conducted to illustrate this group's heightened infectivity. Varied definitions of acute infection and assumptions about observed phylogenetic clusters may produce misleading results. We conducted a phylogenetic analysis of HIV pol sequences from 165 European patients with estimated infection dates and calculated the difference between dates within clusters. Nine phylogenetic clusters were observed. Comparison of dates within clusters revealed that only 2 could have been generated during acute infection. Previous analyses may have incorrectly assigned transmission events to the acutely HIV infected when they were more likely to have occurred during chronic infection.

Molecular epidemiology reveals long-term changes in HIV type 1 subtype B transmission in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Sequence data from resistance testing offer unique opportunities to characterize the structure of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection epidemics. METHODS: We analyzed a representative set of HIV type 1 (HIV-1) subtype B pol sequences from 5700 patients enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. We pooled these sequences with the same number of sequences from foreign epidemics, inferred a phylogeny, and identified Swiss transmission clusters as clades having a minimal size of 10 and containing >or=80% Swiss sequences. RESULTS: More than one-half of Swiss patients were included within 60 transmission clusters. Most transmission clusters were significantly dominated by specific transmission routes, which were used to identify the following patient groups: men having sex with men (MSM) (38 transmission clusters; average cluster size, 29 patients) or patients acquiring HIV through heterosexual contact (HETs) and injection drug users (IDUs) (12 transmission clusters; average cluster size, 144 patients). Interestingly, there were no transmission clusters dominated by sequences from HETs only. Although 44% of all HETs who were infected between 1983 and 1986 clustered with injection drug users, this percentage decreased to 18% for 2003-2006 (P<.001), indicating a diminishing role of injection drug users in transmission among HETs over time. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis suggests (1) the absence of a self-sustaining epidemic of HIV-1 subtype B in HETs in Switzerland and (2) a temporally decreasing clustering of HIV infections in HETs and IDUs.

HIV/AIDS-associated visceral leishmaniasis in patients from an endemic area in Central-west Brazil

An increase in morbidity associated with visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS patients has been described in Africa and the Mediterranean. Despite the high endemicity of VL and HIV-1/AIDS in Brazil, this association has not been thoroughly investigated. Our aim was to evaluate the epidemiologic and clinical characteristics of VL-HIV-1/AIDS cases from Central-west [Mato Grosso do Sul (MS)] Brazil. Medical records of 23 VL-HIV-1/AIDS patients were reviewed. Patients were predominantly adult males (87%) and 34.8% of the patients were intravenous drug users (IVDU). Leishmaniasis was the first opportunistic infection in 60% of the HIV-1 patients. Fever occurred in all patients, although splenomegaly and hepatomegaly were absent in 21.7% of the cases. CD4+ T-cell counts were below 200 cells/mm³ in 80% of the cases and the counts did not increase after clinical remission despite antiretroviral therapy. The first drug chosen to treat the cases was antimonial, but the therapeutic regimen was altered to amphotericin B in 12 of 17 cases due to side effects. Relapses were reported in 56.5% of the patients. IVDU may constitute an important risk factor for the transmission of both diseases in MS. VL-HIV-1/AIDS patients in MS share similar clinical characteristics as those from other endemic regions worldwide. Thus, these findings are critical for improving the surveillance of VL-HIV/AIDS patients.

HIV-1 RNA detection in the amniotic fluid of HIV-infected pregnant women

This study is aimed at evaluating the potential to detect human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in amniotic fluid (AF) collected at delivery from 40 HIV-positive pregnant women. Thirty patients had a plasma viral load (VL) below 1,000 copies/mL at delivery. VL was positive in three AF samples. No significant association was found between the HIV-1 RNA in AF and the maternal plasma samples. There was no HIV vertical transmission detected.

Eligibility for and outcome of treatment of latent tuberculosis infection in a cohort of HIV-infected people in Spain

BACKGROUND Previous studies have demonstrated the efficacy of treatment for latent tuberculosis infection (TLTBI) in persons infected with the human immunodeficiency virus, but few studies have investigated the operational aspects of implementing TLTBI in the co-infected population.The study objectives were to describe eligibility for TLTBI as well as treatment prescription, initiation and completion in an HIV-infected Spanish cohort and to investigate factors associated with treatment completion. METHODS Subjects were prospectively identified between 2000 and 2003 at ten HIV hospital-based clinics in Spain. Data were obtained from clinical records. Associations were measured using the odds ratio (OR) and its 95% confidence interval (95% CI). RESULTS A total of 1242 subjects were recruited and 846 (68.1%) were evaluated for TLTBI. Of these, 181 (21.4%) were eligible for TLTBI either because they were tuberculin skin test (TST) positive (121) or because their TST was negative/unknown but they were known contacts of a TB case or had impaired immunity (60). Of the patients eligible for TLTBI, 122 (67.4%) initiated TLTBI: 99 (81.1%) were treated with isoniazid for 6, 9 or 12 months; and 23 (18.9%) with short-course regimens including rifampin plus isoniazid and/or pyrazinamide. In total, 70 patients (57.4%) completed treatment, 39 (32.0%) defaulted, 7 (5.7%) interrupted treatment due to adverse effects, 2 developed TB, 2 died, and 2 moved away. Treatment completion was associated with having acquired HIV infection through heterosexual sex as compared to intravenous drug use (OR:4.6; 95% CI:1.4-14.7) and with having taken rifampin and pyrazinamide for 2 months as compared to isoniazid for 9 months (OR:8.3; 95% CI:2.7-24.9). CONCLUSIONS A minority of HIV-infected patients eligible for TLTBI actually starts and completes a course of treatment. Obstacles to successful implementation of this intervention need to be addressed.

High prevalence of drug-resistant tuberculosis and other mycobacteria among HIV-infected patients in Brazil: a systematic review

There is a little-noticed trend involving human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients suspected of having tuberculosis: the triple-treatment regimen recommended in Brazil for years has been potentially ineffective in over 30% of the cases. This proportion may be attributable to drug resistance (to at least 1 drug) and/or to infection with non-tuberculous mycobacteria. This evidence was not disclosed in official statistics, but arose from a systematic review of a few regional studies in which the diagnosis was reliably confirmed by mycobacterial culture. This paper clarifies that there has long been ample evidence for the potential benefits of a four-drug regimen for co-infected patients in Brazil and it reinforces the need for determining the species and drug susceptibility in all positive cultures from HIV-positive patients.

An HIV-1 clade C DNA prime, NYVAC boost vaccine regimen induces reliable, polyfunctional, and long-lasting T cell responses

The EuroVacc 02 phase I trial has evaluated the safety and immunogenicity of a prime-boost regimen comprising recombinant DNA and the poxvirus vector NYVAC, both expressing a common immunogen consisting of Env, Gag, Pol, and Nef polypeptide domain from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 clade C isolate, CN54. 40 volunteers were randomized to receive DNA C or nothing on day 0 and at week 4, followed by NYVAC C at weeks 20 and 24. The primary immunogenicity endpoints were measured at weeks 26 and 28 by the quantification of T cell responses using the interferon gamma enzyme-linked immunospot assay. Our results indicate that the DNA C plus NYVAC C vaccine regimen was highly immunogenic, as indicated by the detection of T cell responses in 90% of vaccinees and was superior to responses induced by NYVAC C alone (33% of responders). The vaccine-induced T cell responses were (a) vigorous in the case of the env response (mean 480 spot-forming units/10(6) mononuclear cells at weeks 26/28), (b) polyfunctional for both CD4 and CD8 T cell responses, (c) broad (the average number of epitopes was 4.2 per responder), and (d) durable (T cell responses were present in 70% of vaccinees at week 72). The vaccine-induced T cell responses were strongest and most frequently directed against Env (91% of vaccines), but smaller responses against Gag-Pol-Nef were also observed in 48% of vaccinees. These results support the development of the poxvirus platform in the HIV vaccine field and the further clinical development of the DNA C plus NYVAC C vaccine regimen