Metodologia Value-at-risk: aplicação a uma carteira de obrigações de tesouro portuguesas

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

The Use of Statins in People at Risk of Developing Diabetes Mellitus: Evidence and Guidance for Clinical Practice

Reducing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels using statins is associated with significant reductions in cardiovascular (CV) events in a wide range of patient populations. Although statins are generally considered to be safe, recent studies suggest they are associated with an increased risk of developing Type 2 diabetes (T2D). This led the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to change their labelling requirements for statins to include a warning about the possibility of increased blood sugar and HbA1c levels and the European Medicines Agency (EMA) to issue guidance on a small increased risk of T2D with the statin class. This review examines the evidence leading to these claims and provides practical guidance for primary care physicians on the use of statins in people with or at risk of developing T2D. Overall, evidence suggests that the benefits of statins for the reduction of CV risk far outweigh the risk of developing T2D, especially in individuals with higher CV risk. To reduce the risk of developing T2D, physicians should assess all patients for T2D risk prior to starting statin therapy, educate patients about their risks, and encourage risk-reduction through lifestyle changes. Whether some statins are more diabetogenic than others requires further study. Statin-treated patients at high risk of developing T2D should regularly be monitored for changes in blood glucose or HbA1c levels, and the risk of conversion from pre-diabetes to T2D should be reduced by intensifying lifestyle changes. Should a patient develop T2D during statin treatment, physicians should continue with statin therapy and manage T2D in accordance with relevant national guidelines.

Early Sac Shrinkage Predicts a Low Risk of Late Complications After Endovascular Aortic Aneurysm Repair

BACKGROUND: Aneurysm shrinkage has been proposed as a marker of successful endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR). Patients with early postoperative shrinkage may experience fewer subsequent complications, and consequently require less intensive surveillance. METHODS: Patients undergoing EVAR from 2000 to 2011 at three vascular centres (in 2 countries), who had two imaging examinations (postoperative and after 6-18 months), were included. Maximum diameter, complications and secondary interventions during follow-up were registered. Patients were categorized according to early sac dynamics. The primary endpoint was freedom from late complications. Secondary endpoints were freedom from secondary intervention, postimplant rupture and direct (type I/III) endoleaks. RESULTS: Some 597 EVARs (71.1 per cent of all EVARs) were included. No shrinkage was observed in 284 patients (47.6 per cent), moderate shrinkage (5-9 mm) in 142 (23.8 per cent) and major shrinkage (at least 10 mm) in 171 patients (28.6 per cent). Four years after the index imaging, the rate of freedom from complications was 84.3 (95 per cent confidence interval 78.7 to 89.8), 88.1 (80.6 to 95.5) and 94.4 (90.1 to 98.7) per cent respectively. No shrinkage was an independent risk factor for late complications compared with major shrinkage (hazard ratio (HR) 3.11; P < 0.001). Moderate compared with major shrinkage (HR 2.10; P = 0.022), early postoperative complications (HR 3.34; P < 0.001) and increasing abdominal aortic aneurysm baseline diameter (HR 1.02; P = 0.001) were also risk factors for late complications. Freedom from secondary interventions and direct endoleaks was greater for patients with major sac shrinkage. CONCLUSION: Early change in aneurysm sac diameter is a strong predictor of late complications after EVAR. Patients with major sac shrinkage have a very low risk of complications for up to 5 years. This parameter may be used to tailor postoperative surveillance.

Lack of Spontaneous Venous Pulsation: Possible Risk Indicator in Normal Tension Glaucoma?

PURPOSE: Recently, the absence of spontaneous venous pulsation (SVP) has been suggested as a vascular risk factor for primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG). As the mechanism behind this phenomenon is still unknown, the authors have studied this vascular component using colour Doppler imaging (CDI). METHODS: A total of 236 patients were divided into three diagnostic groups: healthy controls (81), POAG (86) and normal tension glaucoma (NTG; 69). All subjects were submitted to CDI studies of the retrobulbar circulation, intraocular pressure measurements and assessment of SVP existence. Mann-Whitney, chi-square contingency tables and Spearman correlations were used to explore differences and correlations between variables in the diagnostic groups. RESULTS: Eighty-two percent of healthy controls had SVP (66/81), while a smaller numbers were registered in both glaucoma groups: POAG - 50% (43/86); NTG - 51% (35/69). In NTG patients, but not in POAG patients, the prevalence of the SVP phenomenon decreases with increased glaucoma damage (p = 0.04; p = 0.55, respectively). Overall glaucoma patients from both groups had lower central retinal vein (CRV) velocities than the healthy controls (p < 0.05). NTG patients with SVP had less severe visual field defects (mean defect -6.92 versus -11.1, p < 0.05), higher [correction added after online publication 21 September 2012; the word 'higher' has been inserted to replace the word 'lower'] peak systolic and mean flow velocities in the central retinal artery (p < 0.01; p < 0.05, respectively) as well as higher [correction added after online publication 21 September 2012; the word higher has been inserted to replace the word lower] maximal velocities and RI of the CRV (p < 0.02; p < 0.05, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Glaucoma patients have a decrease in CRV velocities. SVP is less prevalent in glaucoma patients than in healthy individuals. This phenomenon apparently reflects different hemodynamic patterns in the central retinal vessels. This variable may be of particular importance in NTG patients, where it may be associated with more advanced functional damage.

Aortic and Tricuspid Endocarditis in Hemodialysis Patient with Systemic and Pulmonary Embolism

This is a case report of a 43-year-old Caucasian male with end-stage renal disease being treated with hemodialysis and infective endocarditis in the aortic and tricuspid valves. The clinical presentation was dominated by neurologic impairment with cerebral embolism and hemorrhagic components. A thoracoabdominal computerized tomography scan revealed septic pulmonary embolus. The patient underwent empirical antibiotherapy with ceftriaxone, gentamicin and vancomycin, and the therapy was changed to flucloxacilin and gentamicin after the isolation of S. aureus in blood cultures. The multidisciplinary team determined that the patient should undergo valve replacement after the stabilization of the intracranial hemorrhage; however, on the 8th day of hospitalization, the patient entered cardiac arrest due to a massive septic pulmonary embolism and died. Despite the risk of aggravation of the hemorrhagic cerebral lesion, early surgical intervention should be considered in high-risk patients.

What is the value of value-at-risk after all?: A conditional approach using quantile regressions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Low Socioeconomic Status is an Independent Risk Factor for Survival After Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair and Open Surgery for Peripheral Artery Disease

OBJECTIVE/BACKGROUND: The association between socioeconomic status (SES), presentation, and outcome after vascular surgery is largely unknown. This study aimed to determine the influence of SES on post-operative survival and severity of disease at presentation among vascular surgery patients in the Dutch setting of equal access to and provision of care. METHODS: Patients undergoing surgical treatment for peripheral artery disease (PAD), abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), or carotid artery stenosis between January 2003 and December 2011 were retrospectively included. The association between SES, quantified by household income, disease severity at presentation, and survival was studied using logistic and Cox regression analysis adjusted for demographics, and medical and behavioral risk factors. RESULTS: A total of 1,178 patients were included. Low income was associated with worse post-operative survival in the PAD cohort (n = 324, hazard ratio 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00-1.10, per 5,000 Euro decrease) and the AAA cohort (n = 440, quadratic relation, p = .01). AAA patients in the lowest income quartile were more likely to present with a ruptured aneurysm (odds ratio [OR] 2.12, 95% CI 1.08-4.17). Lowest income quartile PAD patients presented more frequently with symptoms of critical limb ischemia, although no significant association could be established (OR 2.02, 95% CI 0.96-4.26). CONCLUSIONS: The increased health hazards observed in this study are caused by patient related factors rather than differences in medical care, considering the equality of care provided by the study setting. Although the exact mechanism driving the association between SES and worse outcome remains elusive, consideration of SES as a risk factor in pre-operative decision making and focus on treatment of known SES related behavioral and psychosocial risk factors may improve the outcome of patients with vascular disease.

Acute Kidney Injury after Pediatric Cardiac Surgery: Risk Factors and Outcomes. Proposal for a Predictive Model

Objectives: To characterize the epidemiology and risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI) after pediatric cardiac surgery in our center, to determine its association with poor short-term outcomes, and to develop a logistic regression model that will predict the risk of AKI for the study population. Methods: This single-center, retrospective study included consecutive pediatric patients with congenital heart disease who underwent cardiac surgery between January 2010 and December 2012. Exclusion criteria were a history of renal disease, dialysis or renal transplantation. Results: Of the 325 patients included, median age three years (1 day---18 years), AKI occurred in 40 (12.3%) on the first postoperative day. Overall mortality was 13 (4%), nine of whom were in the AKI group. AKI was significantly associated with length of intensive care unit stay, length of mechanical ventilation and in-hospital death (p<0.01). Patients’ age and postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were included in the logistic regression model as predictor variables. The model accurately predicted AKI in this population, with a maximum combined sensitivity of 82.1% and specificity of 75.4%. Conclusions: AKI is common and is associated with poor short-term outcomes in this setting. Younger age and higher postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were powerful predictors of renal injury in this population. The proposed model could be a useful tool for risk stratification of these patients.

Validation of Two US Risk Scores for Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in a Single-Center Portuguese Population of Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

INTRODUCTION: New scores have been developed and validated in the US for in-hospital mortality risk stratification in patients undergoing coronary angioplasty: the National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) risk score and the Mayo Clinic Risk Score (MCRS). We sought to validate these scores in a European population with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and to compare their predictive accuracy with that of the GRACE risk score. METHODS: In a single-center ACS registry of patients undergoing coronary angioplasty, we used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), a graphical representation of observed vs. expected mortality, and net reclassification improvement (NRI)/integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) analysis to compare the scores. RESULTS: A total of 2148 consecutive patients were included, mean age 63 years (SD 13), 74% male and 71% with ST-segment elevation ACS. In-hospital mortality was 4.5%. The GRACE score showed the best AUC (0.94, 95% CI 0.91-0.96) compared with NCDR (0.87, 95% CI 0.83-0.91, p=0.0003) and MCRS (0.85, 95% CI 0.81-0.90, p=0.0003). In model calibration analysis, GRACE showed the best predictive power. With GRACE, patients were more often correctly classified than with MCRS (NRI 78.7, 95% CI 59.6-97.7; IDI 0.136, 95% CI 0.073-0.199) or NCDR (NRI 79.2, 95% CI 60.2-98.2; IDI 0.148, 95% CI 0.087-0.209). CONCLUSION: The NCDR and Mayo Clinic risk scores are useful for risk stratification of in-hospital mortality in a European population of patients with ACS undergoing coronary angioplasty. However, the GRACE score is still to be preferred.

Diabetes Mellitus as a Risk Factor in Glaucoma's Physiopathology and Surgical Survival Time: A Literature Review

Glaucoma is a multifactorial condition under serious influence of many risk factors. The role of diabetes mellitus (DM) in glaucoma etiology or progression remains inconclusive. Although, the diabetic patients have different healing mechanism comparing to the general population and it has a possible-negative role on surgical outcomes. This review article attempts to analyze the association of both diseases, glaucoma and DM, before and after the surgery. The epidemiological studies, based mainly in population prevalence analyzes, have shown opposite outcomes in time and even in the most recent articles also the association remains inconclusive. On the contrary, the experimental models based on animal induced chronic hyperglycemia have shown an important association of both diseases, explained by common neurodegenerative mechanisms. Diabetic patients have a different wound healing process in the eye viz-a-viz other organs. The healing process is more and it results in lower surgical survival time, higher intraocular pressure (IOP) levels and, therefore, these patients usually need more medication to lower the IOP. Both randomized and nonrandomized retrospective and experimental molecular studies have shown the association between DM and glaucoma. Further studies are needed to get better explanations about outcomes on more recent surgical procedures and with the exponential use of antifibrotics. How to cite this article: Costa L, Cunha JP, Amado D, Pinto LA, Ferreira J. Diabetes Mellitus as a Risk Factor in Glaucoma's Physiopathology and Surgical Survival Time: A Literature Review.

Regulatory Cells, Cytokine Pattern and Clinical Risk Factors for Asthma in Infants and Young Children with Recurrent Wheeze

Several risk factors for asthma have been identified in infants and young children with recurrent wheeze. However, published literature has reported contradictory findings regarding the underlying immunological mechanisms. OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to assess and compare the immunological status during the first 2 years in steroid-naive young children with >or= three episodes of physician-confirmed wheeze (n=50), with and without clinical risk factors for developing subsequent asthma (i.e. parental asthma or a personal history of eczema and/or two of the following: wheezing without colds, a personal history of allergic rhinitis and peripheral blood eosinophilia >4%), with age-matched healthy controls (n=30). METHODS: Peripheral blood CD4(+)CD25(+) and CD4(+)CD25(high) T cells and their cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated antigen-4 (CTLA-4), GITR and Foxp3 expression were analysed by flow cytometry. Cytokine (IFN-gamma, TGF-beta and IL-10), CTLA-4 and Foxp3 mRNA expression were evaluated (real-time PCR) after peripheral blood mononuclear cell stimulation with phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA) (24 h) and house dust mite (HDM) extracts (7th day). RESULTS: Flow cytometry results showed a significant reduction in the absolute number of CD4(+)CD25(high) and the absolute and percentage numbers of CD4(+)CD25(+)CTLA-4(+) in wheezy children compared with healthy controls. Wheezy children at a high risk of developing asthma had a significantly lower absolute number of CD4(+)CD25(+) (P=0.01) and CD4(+)CD25(high) (P=0.04), compared with those at a low risk. After PMA stimulation, CTLA-4 (P=0.03) and Foxp3 (P=0.02) expression was diminished in wheezy children compared with the healthy children. After HDM stimulation, CTLA-4 (P=0.03) and IFN-gamma (P=0.04) expression was diminished in wheezy children compared with healthy children. High-risk children had lower expression of IFN-gamma (P=0.03) compared with low-risk and healthy children and lower expression of CTLA-4 (P=0.01) compared with healthy children. CONCLUSIONS: Although our findings suggest that some immunological parameters are impaired in children with recurrent wheeze, particularly with a high risk for asthma, further studies are needed in order to assess their potential as surrogate predictor factors for asthma in early life.

Development of a fuzzy qualitative risk assessment model applied to construction industry

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Industrial

Credit risk stress testing: The Portuguese environment, macroeconomic scenarios and the estimation of losses for corporate sectors

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Risk and return: The international expansion of EDP Renováveis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

How bank business models relate with risk?: The case of Portugal in times of financial crisis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics