Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Hospital utilisation among people born in refugee-source countries : an analysis of hospital admissions, Victoria, 1998–2004

Objective: To investigate whether hospital utilisation and health outcomes in Victoria differ between people born in refugee-source countries and those born in Australia. Design and setting: Analysis of a statewide hospital discharge dataset for the 6 financial years from 1 July 1998 to 30 June 2004. Hospital admissions of people born in eight countries for which the majority of entrants to Australia arrived as refugees were included in the analysis. Main outcome measures: Age-standardised rates and rate ratios for: total hospital admissions; emergency admissions; surgical admissions; total days in hospital; discharge at own risk; hospital deaths; admissions due to infectious and parasitic diseases; and admissions due to mental and behavioural disorders. Results: In 2003–04, compared with the Australia-born Victorian population, people born in refugee-source countries had lower rates of surgical admission (rate ratio [RR], 0.85; 95% CI, 0.81–0.88), total days in hospital (RR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.73–0.75), and admission due to mental and behavioural disorders (RR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.65–0.76). Over the 6-year period, rates of total days in hospital and rates of admission due to mental and behavioural disorders for people born in refugee-source countries increased towards Australian-born averages, while rates of total admissions, emergency admissions, and admissions due to infectious and parasitic diseases increased above the Australian-born averages. Conclusions: Use of hospital services among people born in refugee-source countries is not higher than that of the Australian-born population and shows a trend towards Australian-born averages. Our findings indicate that the Refugee and Humanitarian Program does not currently place a burden on the Australian hospital system.

Toward cultural epidemiology : beyond epistemological hegemony

It is more than 10 years since the anthropologist DiGiacomo (1999) answered the question “Can there be a cultural epidemiology?” with disappointment, concluding ethnographic and epidemiological narratives are divergent not complementary. In the same year, the epidemiologist Krieger (1999, p. 1151) asked related questions about the epistemological foundations of epidemiology: “Epidemiology is–or is not—the basic science of public health. Epidemiology is—or is not—an objective science. Science and advocacy are—or are not—distinct and contrary endeavours.” Again in the same year the Indigenous researcher Smith (1999, p. 1) wrote, “From the vantage point of the colonized, a position from which I write, and choose to privilege, the term ‘research’ is inextricably linked to European imperialism and colonialism.” The act of conceptualizing and practicing cultural epidemiology thus brings with it a series of deep epistemological questions about the nature of knowledge production. The Western academy of health research assumes an intellectual and moral privilege to fill gaps in knowledge aimed at yielding improvements in health status. With such privilege comes responsibility, since the power to conceptualize health problems and their solutions deserves considerable critical, historical, and political reflexivity, particularly at the boundaries between dominant and oppressed cultural spaces...

Telephone support to rural and remote patients with heart failure : the Chronic Heart failure Assessment by Telephone (CHAT) study

Background Heart failure (HF) remains a condition with high morbidity and mortality. We tested a telephone support strategy to reduce major events in rural and remote Australians with HF, who have limited healthcare access. Telephone support comprised an interactive telecommunication software tool (TeleWatch) with follow-up by trained cardiac nurses. Methods Patients with a general practice (GP) diagnosis of HF were randomised to usual care (UC) or UC and telephone support intervention (UC+I) using a cluster design involving 143 GPs throughout Australia. Patients were followed for 12 months. The primary end-point was the Packer clinical composite score. Secondary end-points included hospitalisation for any cause, death or hospitalisation, as well as HF hospitalisation. Results Four hundred and five patients were randomised into CHAT. Patients were well matched at baseline for key demographic variables. The primary end-point of the Packer Score was not different between the two groups (P=0.98), although more patients improved with UC+I. There were fewer patients hospitalised for any cause (74 versus 114, adjusted HR 0.67 [95% CI 0.50-0.89], p=0.006) and who died or were hospitalised (89 versus 124, adjusted HR 0.70 [95% CI 0.53 – 0.92], p=0.011), in the UC+I vs UC group. HF hospitalisations were reduced with UC+I (23 versus 35, adjusted HR 0.81 [95% CI 0.44 – 1.38]), although this was not significant (p=0.43). There were 16 deaths in the UC group and 17 in the UC+I group (p=0.43). Conclusions Although no difference was observed in the primary end-point of CHAT (Packer composite score), UC+I significantly reduced the number of HF patients hospitalised amongst a rural and remote cohort. These data suggest that telephone support may be an efficacious approach to improve clinical outcomes in rural and remote HF patients.

Heart beats and economic decisions : Observing mental stress in the ultimatum bargaining game

One aim of experimental economics is to try to better understand human economic decision making. Early research of the ultimatum bargaining game (Gueth et al., 1982) revealed that other motives than pure monetary reward play a role. Neuroeconomic research has introduced the recording of physiological observations as signals of emotional responses. In this study, we apply heart rate variability (HRV) measuring technology to explore the behaviour and physiological reactions of proposers and responders in the ultimatum bargaining game. Since this technology is small and non-intrusive, we are able to run the experiment in a standard experimental economic setup. We show that low o�ers by a proposer cause signs of mental stress in both the proposer and the responder, as both exhibit high ratios of low to high frequency activity in the HRV spectrum.