753 resultados para Granger causality


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Mode of access: Internet.

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Indexed in Granger's Index to poetry and recitations.

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Appendices: (A) The origins of the great war, by H. N. Brailsford.--(B) Britain and the war; a study in diplomacy, by C. H. Norman.--(C) Why we are at war; a reply to Sir Edward Grey, by Sir R. MacDonald.--(D) Secret diplomacy the cause of war; an appeal to the British people, by E. D. Morel.--(E) Letter by Baron L'Escaille, Belgian minister at St. Petersburg, to M. Davignon, Belgian minister of foreign affairs.

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Mode of access: Internet.

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Mode of access: Internet.

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Bibliography: p. [318]-324.

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This paper examines the causal links between productivity growth and two price series given by domestic inflation and the price of mineral products in Australia's mining sector for the period 1968/1969 to 1997/1998. The study also uses a stochastic translog cost frontier to generate improved estimates of total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The results indicate negative unidirectional causality running from both price series to mining productivity growth. Regression analysis further shows that domestic inflation has a small but adverse effect on mining productivity growth, thus providing some empirical support for Australia's 'inflation first' monetary policy, at least with respect to the mining sector. Inflation in mineral price, on the other hand, has a greater negative effect on mining productivity growth via mineral export growth.

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In an earlier note, Collins and Tisdell (2002b) explored the possibility of a long-run relationship between Australian business returns and international business travel. Using annual data they found that such a relationship exists. The purpose of this study is to further examine this relationship using quarterly data for the time frame 1974:1 to 1999:4. In addition, previous studies on international business travel have offered some but not strong evidence for the existence of a positive relationship between the level of international business travel and real GDP of the origin country. This study suggests that the aggregate return on business investments is a better predictor of international business travel than GDP. The Engle-Granger and Johansen's maximum-likelihood cointegration procedures are used to show a long-term relationship exists between Australian outbound business travel and Australian business returns, but not with Real Australian GDP. Reasons for this relationship are discussed.

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A theoretical model was developed to investigate the relationships among subordinate-manager gender combinations, perceived leadership style, experienced frustration and optimism, organization-based self-esteem and organizational commitment. The model was tested within the context of a probabilistic structural model, a discrete Bayesian network, using cross-sectional data from a global pharmaceutical company. The Bayesian network allowed forward inference to assess the relative influence of gender combination and leadership style on the emotions, self-esteem and commitment consequence variables. Further, diagnostics from backward inference were used to assess the relative influence of variables antecedent to organizational commitment. The results showed that gender combination was independent of leadership style and had a direct impact on subordinates' levels of frustration and optimism. Female manager-female subordinate had the largest probability of optimism, while male manager teamed with a male subordinate had the largest probability of frustration. Furthermore, having a female manager teamed up with a male subordinate resulted in the lowest possibility of frustration. However, the findings show that the gender issue is not simply female managers versus male managers, but is concerned with the interaction of the subordinate-manager gender combination and leadership style in a nonlinear manner. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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The Euro has been used as the largest weighting element in a basket of currencies for forex arrangements adopted by several Central European countries outside the European Union (EU). The paper uses a new time-series approach to examine the relationship between the Euro exchange rate and the level of foreign reserves. It employs Zero-no-zero (ZNZ) patterned vector error-correction (VECM) modelling to investigate Granger causal relations among foreign reserves, the European Monetary Union money supply and the Euro exchange rate. The findings confirm that foreign reserves may influence movements in the Euro's exchange rate. Further, ZNZ patterned VECM modelling with exogenous variables is used to estimate the amount of foreign reserves currently required in order to again achieve a targetted Euro exchange rate

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Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives-defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely-requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the relevance of new information, relative to the initial ( and smaller) set of data on which the decision was based. We exemplify this seemingly simple situation using risk management of BSE. As an integral aspect of causal analysis under risk, the methods developed in this paper permit the addition of non-linear, hormetic dose-response models to the current set of regulatory defaults such as the linear, non-threshold models. This increase in the number of defaults is an important improvement because most of the variants of the precautionary principle require cost-benefit balancing. Specifically, increasing the set of causal defaults accounts for beneficial effects at very low doses. We also show and conclude that quantitative risk assessment dominates qualitative risk assessment, supporting the extension of the set of default causal models.

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Study Design. Retrospective Objective. To predict satisfaction with medical rehabilitation. Summary of Background Data. While spinal cord injury (SCI) patient satisfaction with life and community services has been investigated, satisfaction with medical rehabilitation has not. Methods. Information submitted to the Uniform Data System for Medical Rehabilitation ( 1998 - 2001) by 134 hospitals/rehabilitation facilities in the United States (n = 6,205 patients with SCI) was examined. Predictors were sociodemographic variables, Case Mix Groupings (CMG) ( 401 - 505, 5001), length of stay, rehospitalization, followup therapy, and health maintenance. Satisfaction was assessed at a mean of 92.2 days (SD 11.9 days) postdischarge. Data were analyzed according to who reported the outcome ( patient, n = 3,858 or family/other, n = 1,869). Statistical modeling was conducted using logistic regression. Results. High overall satisfaction was reported (94%). Significant predictors for the patient report data were CMG and rehospitalization. Compared with CMG 5001 ( short stay,

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Ischemia-reperfusion (I/R) injury is a common clinical event with the potential to seriously affect, and sometimes kill, the patient. Interruption of blood supply causes ischemia, which rapidly damages metabolically active tissues. Paradoxically, restoration of blood flow to the ischemic tissues initiates a cascade of pathology that leads to additional cell or tissue injury. I/R is a potent inducer of complement activation that results in the production of a number of inflammatory mediators. The use of specific inhibitors to block complement activation has been shown to prevent local tissue injury after I/R. Clinical and experimental studies in gut, kidney, limb, and liver have shown that I/R results in local activation of the complement system and leads to the production of the complement factors C3a, C5a, and the membrane attack complex. The novel inhibitors of complement products may find wide clinical application because there are no effective drug therapies currently available to treat I/R injuries.