Methods of Obtaining Instantaneous Modulus of Viscoelastic Solids Using Displacement-Controlled Instrumented Indentation with Axisymmetric Indenters of Arbitrary Smooth Profiles

We derive a relationship between the initial unloading slope, contact depth, and the instantaneous relaxation modulus for displacement-controlled indentation in linear viscoelastic solids by a rigid indenter with an arbitrary axisymmetric smooth profile. While the same expression is well known for indentation in elastic and in elastic–plastic solids, we show that it is also true for indentation in linear viscoelastic solids, provided that the unloading rate is sufficiently fast. When the unloading rate is slow, a “hold” period between loading and unloading can be used to provide a correction term for the initial unloading slope equation. Finite element calculations are used to illustrate the methods of fast unloading and “hold-at-the-maximum-indenter-displacement” for determining the instantaneous modulus using spherical indenters.

Pattern Recognition With Weighted Complex Networks

In this paper we introduce a weighted complex networks model to investigate and recognize structures of patterns. The regular treating in pattern recognition models is to describe each pattern as a high-dimensional vector which however is insufficient to express the structural information. Thus, a number of methods are developed to extract the structural information, such as different feature extraction algorithms used in pre-processing steps, or the local receptive fields in convolutional networks. In our model, each pattern is attributed to a weighted complex network, whose topology represents the structure of that pattern. Based upon the training samples, we get several prototypal complex networks which could stand for the general structural characteristics of patterns in different categories. We use these prototypal networks to recognize the unknown patterns. It is an attempt to use complex networks in pattern recognition, and our result shows the potential for real-world pattern recognition. A spatial parameter is introduced to get the optimal recognition accuracy, and it remains constant insensitive to the amount of training samples. We have discussed the interesting properties of the prototypal networks. An approximate linear relation is found between the strength and color of vertexes, in which we could compare the structural difference between each category. We have visualized these prototypal networks to show that their topology indeed represents the common characteristics of patterns. We have also shown that the asymmetric strength distribution in these prototypal networks brings high robustness for recognition. Our study may cast a light on understanding the mechanism of the biologic neuronal systems in object recognition as well.

Sequential decision making in general state space models

Many problems in control and signal processing can be formulated as sequential decision problems for general state space models. However, except for some simple models one cannot obtain analytical solutions and has to resort to approximation. In this thesis, we have investigated problems where Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods can be combined with a gradient based search to provide solutions to online optimisation problems. We summarise the main contributions of the thesis as follows. Chapter 4 focuses on solving the sensor scheduling problem when cast as a controlled Hidden Markov Model. We consider the case in which the state, observation and action spaces are continuous. This general case is important as it is the natural framework for many applications. In sensor scheduling, our aim is to minimise the variance of the estimation error of the hidden state with respect to the action sequence. We present a novel SMC method that uses a stochastic gradient algorithm to find optimal actions. This is in contrast to existing works in the literature that only solve approximations to the original problem. In Chapter 5 we presented how an SMC can be used to solve a risk sensitive control problem. We adopt the use of the Feynman-Kac representation of a controlled Markov chain flow and exploit the properties of the logarithmic Lyapunov exponent, which lead to a policy gradient solution for the parameterised problem. The resulting SMC algorithm follows a similar structure with the Recursive Maximum Likelihood(RML) algorithm for online parameter estimation. In Chapters 6, 7 and 8, dynamic Graphical models were combined with with state space models for the purpose of online decentralised inference. We have concentrated more on the distributed parameter estimation problem using two Maximum Likelihood techniques, namely Recursive Maximum Likelihood (RML) and Expectation Maximization (EM). The resulting algorithms can be interpreted as an extension of the Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm to compute likelihood gradients. In order to design an SMC algorithm, in Chapter 8 uses a nonparametric approximations for Belief Propagation. The algorithms were successfully applied to solve the sensor localisation problem for sensor networks of small and medium size.

Modeling, numerical methods, and simulation for particle-fluid two-phase flow problems

In this paper, we study the issues of modeling, numerical methods, and simulation with comparison to experimental data for the particle-fluid two-phase flow problem involving a solid-liquid mixed medium. The physical situation being considered is a pulsed liquid fluidized bed. The mathematical model is based on the assumption of one-dimensional flows, incompressible in both particle and fluid phases, equal particle diameters, and the wall friction force on both phases being ignored. The model consists of a set of coupled differential equations describing the conservation of mass and momentum in both phases with coupling and interaction between the two phases. We demonstrate conditions under which the system is either mathematically well posed or ill posed. We consider the general model with additional physical viscosities and/or additional virtual mass forces, both of which stabilize the system. Two numerical methods, one of them is first-order accurate and the other fifth-order accurate, are used to solve the models. A change of variable technique effectively handles the changing domain and boundary conditions. The numerical methods are demonstrated to be stable and convergent through careful numerical experiments. Simulation results for realistic pulsed liquid fluidized bed are provided and compared with experimental data. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non-linear theory of a positive-column in a magnetic-field

A nonlinear theory of an intermediate pressure discharge column in a magnetic field is presented. Motion of the neutral gas is considered. The continuity and momentum transfer equations for charged particles and neutral particles are solved by numerical methods. The main result obtained is that the rotating velocities of ionic gas and neutral gas are approximately equal. Bohm's criterion and potential inversion in the presence of neutral gas motion are also discussed.

On the non-linear stability theory of spinning solid bodies with liquid-filled cavities and its application to the columbus problem

In this paper, we first present a system of differential-integral equations for the largedisturbance to the general case that any arbitrarily shaped solid body with a cavity contain-ing viscous liquid rotates uniformly around the principal axis of inertia, and then develop aweakly non-linear stability theory by the Lyapunov direct approach. Applying this theoryto the Columbus problem, we have proved the consistency between the theory and Kelvin'sexperiments.

Number of prior episodes and the presence of depressive symptoms are associated with longer length of stay for patients with acute manic episodes

Background: Few studies have analyzed predictors of length of stay (LOS) in patients admitted due to acute bipolar manic episodes. The purpose of the present study was to estimate LOS and to determine the potential sociodemographic and clinical risk factors associated with a longer hospitalization. Such information could be useful to identify those patients at high risk for long LOS and to allocate them to special treatments, with the aim of optimizing their hospital management. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study recruiting adult patients with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition, text revision (DSM-IV-TR) criteria) who had been hospitalized due to an acute manic episode with a Young Mania Rating Scale total score greater than 20. Bivariate correlational and multiple linear regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of LOS. Results: A total of 235 patients from 44 centers were included in the study. The only factors that were significantly associated to LOS in the regression model were the number of previous episodes and the Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) total score at admission (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Patients with a high number of previous episodes and those with depressive symptoms during mania are more likely to stay longer in hospital. Patients with severe depressive symptoms may have a more severe or treatment-resistant course of the acute bipolar manic episode.

Methods of Obtaining Instantaneous Modulus of Viscoelastic Solids Using Displacement-Controlled Instrumented Indentation with Axisymmetric Indenters of Arbitrary Smooth Profiles

We derive a relationship between the initial unloading slope, contact depth, and the instantaneous relaxation modulus for displacement-controlled indentation in linear viscoelastic solids by a rigid indenter with an arbitrary axisymmetric smooth profile. While the same expression is well known for indentation in elastic and in elastic-plastic solids, we show that it is also true for indentation in linear viscoelastic solids, provided that the unloading rate is sufficiently fast. When the unloading rate is slow, a "hold" period between loading and unloading can be used to provide a correction term for the initial unloading slope equation. Finite element calculations are used to illustrate the methods of fast unloading and "hold-at-the-maximum-indenter-displacement" for determining the instantaneous modulus using spherical indenters.

A Comparison of Two Methods for Enhancing the Recovery of Seagrasses into Propellor Scars: Mechanical Injection of a Nutrient and Growth Hormone Solution vs. Defecation by Roosting Seabirds: Final Report.

Based on the recovery rates for Thalassia testudinum measured in this study for scars of these excavation depths and assuming a linear recovery horizon, we estimate that it would take ~ 6.9 years (95% CI. = 5.4 to 9.6 years) for T. testudinum to return to the same density as recorded for the adjacent undisturbed population. The application of water soluble fertilizers and plant growth hormones by mechanical injection into the sediments adjacent to ten propellor scars at Lignumvitae State Botanical Site did not significantly increase the recovery rate of Thalassia testudinum or Halodule wrightii. An alternative method of fertilization and restoration of propellor scars was also tested by a using a method of “compressed succession” where Halodule wrightii is substituted for T. testudinum in the initial stages of restoration. Bird roosting stakes were placed among H.wrightii bare root plantings in prop scars to facilitate the defecation of nitrogen and phosphorus enriched feces. In contrast to the fertilizer injection method, the bird stakes produced extremely high recovery rates of transplanted H. wrightii. We conclude that use of a fertilizer/hormone injection machine in the manner described here is not a feasible means of enhancing T. testudinum recovery in propellor scars on soft bottom carbonate sediments. Existing techniques such as the bird stake approach provide a reliable, and inexpensive alternative method that should be considered for application to restoration of seagrasses in these environments. Document contains 40 pages)

Ecological condition of coastal ocean waters along the U.S. Western Continental Shelf: 2003

Executive Summary: The western National Coastal Assessment (NCA-West) program of EPA, in conjunction with the NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS), conducted an assessment of the status of ecological condition of soft sediment habitats and overlying waters along the western U.S. continental shelf, between the target depths of 30 and 120 m, during June 2003. NCA-West and NOAA/NOS partnered with the West Coast states (Washington (WA), Oregon (OR), and California (CA)), and the Southern California Coastal Water Research Project (SCCWRP) Bight ’03 program to conduct the survey. A total of 257 stations were sampled from Cape Flattery, WA to the Mexican border using standard methods and indicators applied in previous coastal NCA projects. A key study feature was the incorporation of a stratified-random sampling design with stations stratified by state and National Marine Sanctuary (NMS) status. Each of the three states was represented by at least 50 random stations. There also were a total of 84 random stations located within NOAA’s five NMSs along the West Coast including the Olympic Coast NMS (OCNMS), Cordell Bank NMS (CBNMS), Gulf of Farallones NMS (GFNMS), Monterey Bay NMS (MBNMS), and Channel Islands NMS (CINMS). Collection of flatfish via hook-and-line for fish-tissue contaminant analysis was successful at 50 EMAP/NCA-West stations. Through a collaboration developed with the FRAM Division of the Northwest Fisheries Science Center, fish from an additional 63 stations in the same region and depth range were also analyzed for fish-tissue contaminants. Bottom depth throughout the region ranged from 28 m to 125 m for most stations. Two slightly deeper stations from the Southern California Bight (SCB) (131, 134 m) were included in the data set. About 44% of the survey area had sediments composed of sands (< 20% silt-clay), about 47% was composed of intermediate muddy sands (20-80% silt-clay), and about 9% was composed of muds (> 80% silt-clay). The majority of the survey area (97%) had relatively low percent total organic carbon (TOC) levels of < 2%, while a small portion (< 1%) had high TOC levels (> 5%), in a range potentially harmful to benthic fauna. Salinity of surface waters for 92% of the survey area were > 31 psu, with most stations < 31 psu associated with the Columbia River plume. Bottom salinities ranged only between 31.6 and 34.4 psu. There was virtually no difference in mean bottom salinities among states or between NMS and non-NMS stations. Temperatures of surface water (range 8.5 -19.9 °C) and bottom water (range 5.8 -14.7 °C) averaged several degrees higher in CA in comparison to WA and OR. The Δσt index of watercolumn stratification indicated that about 31% of the survey area had strong vertical stratification of the water column. The index was greatest for waters off WA and lowest for CA waters. Only about 2.6 % of the survey area had surface dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations ≤ 4.8 mg/L, and there were no values below the lower threshold (2.3 mg/L) considered harmful to the survival and growth of marine animals. Surface DO concentrations were higher in WA and OR waters than in CA, and higher in the OC NMS than in the CA sanctuaries. An estimated 94.3% of the area had bottom-water DO concentrations ≤ 4.8 mg/L and 6.6% had concentrations ≤ 2.3 mg/L. The high prevalence of DO from 2.3 to 4.8 mg/L (85% of survey area) is believed to be associated with the upwelling of naturally low DO water across the West Coast shelf. Mean TSS and transmissivity in surface waters (excluding OR due to sample problems) were slightly higher and lower, respectively, for stations in WA than for those in CA. There was little difference in mean TSS or transmissivity between NMS and non-NMS locations. Mean transmissivity in bottom waters, though higher in comparison to surface waters, showed little difference among geographic regions or between NMS and non-NMS locations. Concentrations of nitrate + nitrite, ammonium, total dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and orthophosphate (P) in surface waters tended to be highest in CA compared to WA and OR, and higher in the CA NMS stations compared to CA non-sanctuary stations. Measurements of silicate in surface waters were limited to WA and CA (exclusive of the SCB) and showed that concentrations were similar between the two states and approximately twice as high in CA sanctuaries compared to OCNMS or nonsanctuary locations in either state. The elevated nutrient concentrations observed at CA NMS stations are consistent with the presence of strong upwelling at these sites at the time of sampling. Approximately 93% of the area had DIN/P values ≤ 16, indicative of nitrogen limitation. Mean DIN/P ratios were similar among the three states, although the mean for the OCNMS was less than half that of the CA sanctuaries or nonsanctuary locations. Concentrations of chlorophyll a in surface waters ranged from 0 to 28 μg L-1, with 50% of the area having values < 3.9 μg L-1 and 10% having values > 14.5 μg L-1. The mean concentration of chlorophyll a for CA was less than half that of WA and OR locations, and concentrations were lowest in non-sanctuary sites in CA and highest at the OCNMS. Shelf sediments throughout the survey area were relatively uncontaminated with the exception of a group of stations within the SCB. Overall, about 99% of the total survey area was rated in good condition (<5 chemicals measured above corresponding effect range low (ERL) concentrations). Only the pesticides 4,4′-DDE and total DDT exceeded corresponding effect range-median (ERM) values, all at stations in CA near Los Angeles. Ten other contaminants including seven metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ag, Zn), 2-methylnaphthalene, low molecular weight PAHs, and total PCBs exceeded corresponding ERLs. The most prevalent in terms of area were chromium (31%), arsenic (8%), 2-methylnaphthalene (6%), cadmium (5%), and mercury (4%). The chromium contamination may be related to natural background sources common to the region. The 2-methylnaphthalene exceedances were conspicuously grouped around the CINMS. The mercury exceedances were all at non-sanctuary sites in CA, particularly in the Los Angeles area. Concentrations of cadmium in fish tissues exceeded the lower end of EPA’s non-cancer, human-health-risk range at nine of 50 EMAP/NCA-West and nine of 60 FRAM groundfish-survey stations, including a total of seven NMS stations in CA and two in the OCNMS. The human-health guidelines for all other contaminants were only exceeded for total PCBs at one station located in WA near the mouth of the Columbia River. Benthic species richness was relatively high in these offshore assemblages, ranging from 19 to 190 taxa per 0.1-m2 grab and averaging 79 taxa/grab. The high species richness was reflected over large areas of the shelf and was nearly three times greater than levels observed in estuarine samples along the West Coast (e.g NCA-West estuarine mean of 26 taxa/grab). Mean species richness was highest off CA (94 taxa/grab) and lower in OR and WA (55 and 56 taxa/grab, respectively). Mean species richness was very similar between sanctuary vs. non-sanctuary stations for both the CA and OR/WA regions. Mean diversity index H′ was highest in CA (5.36) and lowest in WA (4.27). There were no major differences in mean H′ between sanctuary vs. nonsanctuary stations for both the CA and OR/WA regions. A total of 1,482 taxa (1,108 to species) and 99,135 individuals were identified region-wide. Polychaetes, crustaceans and molluscs were the dominant taxa, both by percent abundance (59%, 17%, 12% respectively) and percent species (44%, 25%, 17%, respectively). There were no major differences in the percent composition of benthic communities among states or between NMSs and corresponding non-sanctuary sites. Densities averaged 3,788 m-2, about 30% of the average density for West Coast estuaries. Mean density of benthic fauna in the present offshore survey, averaged by state, was highest in CA (4,351 m-2) and lowest in OR (2,310 m-2). Mean densities were slightly higher at NMS stations vs. non-sanctuary stations for both the CA and OR/WA regions. The 10 most abundant taxa were the polychaetes Mediomastus spp., Magelona longicornis, Spiophanes berkeleyorum, Spiophanes bombyx, Spiophanes duplex, and Prionospio jubata; the bivalve Axinopsida serricata, the ophiuroid Amphiodia urtica, the decapod Pinnixa occidentalis, and the ostracod Euphilomedes carcharodonta. Mediomastus spp. and A. serricata were the two most abundant taxa overall. Although many of these taxa have broad geographic distributions throughout the region, the same species were not ranked among the 10 most abundant taxa consistently across states. The closest similarities among states were between OR and WA. At least half of the 10 most abundant taxa in NMSs were also dominant in corresponding nonsanctuary waters. Many of the abundant benthic species have wide latitudinal distributions along the West Coast shelf, with some species ranging from southern CA into the Gulf of Alaska or even the Aleutians. Of the 39 taxa on the list of 50 most abundant taxa that could be identified to species level, 85% have been reported at least once from estuaries of CA, OR, or WA exclusive of Puget Sound. Such broad latitudinal and estuarine distributions are suggestive of wide habitat tolerances. Thirteen (1.2%) of the 1,108 identified species are nonindigenous, with another 121 species classified as cryptogenic (of uncertain origin), and 208 species unclassified with respect to potential invasiveness. Despite uncertainties of classification, the number and densities of nonindigenous species appear to be much lower on the shelf than in the estuarine ecosystems of the Pacific Coast. Spionid polychaetes and the ampharetid polychaete Anobothrus gracilis were a major component of the nonindigenous species collected on the shelf. NOAA’s five NMSs along the West Coast of the U.S. appeared to be in good ecological condition, based on the measured indicators, with no evidence of major anthropogenic impacts or unusual environmental qualities compared to nearby nonsanctuary waters. Benthic communities in sanctuaries resembled those in corresponding non-sanctuary waters, with similarly high levels of species richness and diversity and low incidence of nonindigenous species. Most oceanographic features were also similar between sanctuary and non-sanctuary locations. Exceptions (e.g., higher concentrations of some nutrients in sanctuaries along the CA coast) appeared to be attributable to natural upwelling events in the area at the time of sampling. In addition, sediments within the sanctuaries were relatively uncontaminated, with none of the samples having any measured chemical in excess of ERM values. The ERL value for chromium was exceeded in sediments at the OCNMS, but at a much lower percentage of stations (four of 30) compared to WA and OR non-sanctuary areas (31 of 70 stations). ERL values were exceeded for arsenic, cadmium, chromium, 2- methylnaphthalene, low molecular weight PAHs, total DDT, and 4,4′-DDE at multiple sites within the CINMS. However, cases where total DDT, 4,4′-DDE, and chromium exceeded the ERL values were notably less prevalent at CINMS than in non-sanctuary waters of CA. In contrast, 2-methylnaphthalene above the ERL was much more prevalent in sediments at the CINMS compared to non-sanctuary waters off the coast of CA. While there are natural background sources of PAHs from oil seeps throughout the SCB, this does not explain the higher incidence of 2-methylnaphthalene contamination around CINMS. Two stations in CINMS also had levels of TOC (> 5%) potentially harmful to benthic fauna, though none of these sites exhibited symptoms of impaired benthic condition. This study showed no major evidence of extensive biological impacts linked to measured stressors. There were only two stations, both in CA, where low numbers of benthic species, diversity, or total faunal abundance co-occurred with high sediment contamination or low DO in bottom water. Such general lack of concordance suggests that these offshore waters are currently in good condition, with the lower-end values of the various biological attributes representing parts of a normal reference range controlled by natural factors. Results of multiple linear regression, performed using full model procedures to test for effects of combined abiotic environmental factors, suggested that latitude and depth had significant influences on benthic variables regionwide. Latitude had a significant inverse influence on all three of the above benthic variables, i.e. with values increasing as latitude decreased (p< 0.01), while depth had a significant direct influence on diversity (p < 0.001) and inverse effect on density (p <0.01). None of these variables varied significantly in relation to sediment % fines (at p< 0.1), although in general there was a tendency for muddier sediments (higher % fines) to have lower species richness and diversity and higher densities than coarser sediments. Alternatively, it is possible that for some of these sites the lower values of benthic variables reflect symptoms of disturbance induced by other unmeasured stressors. The indicators in this study included measures of stressors (e.g., chemical contaminants, eutrophication) that are often associated with adverse biological impacts in shallower estuarine and inland ecosystems. However, there may be other sources of humaninduced stress in these offshore systems (e.g., bottom trawling) that pose greater risks to ambient living resources and which have not been captured. Future monitoring efforts in these offshore areas should include indicators of such alternative sources of disturbance. (137pp.) (PDF contains 167 pages)

Characterization of the benthos, marine debris and bottom fish at Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary

Executive Summary: Baseline characterization of resources is an essential part of marine protected area (MPA) management and is critical to inform adaptive management. Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary (GRNMS) currently lacks adequate characterization of several key resources as identified in the 2006 Final Management Plan. The objectives of this characterization were to fulfill this need by characterizing the bottom fish, benthic features, marine debris, and the relationships among them for the different bottom types within the sanctuary: ledges, sparse live bottom, rippled sand, and flat sand. Particular attention was given to characterizing the different ledge types, their fish communities, and the marine debris associated with them given the importance of this bottom type to the sanctuary. The characterization has been divided into four sections. Section 1 provides a brief overview of the project, its relevance to sanctuary needs, methods of site selection, and general field procedures. Section 2 provides the survey methods, results, discussion, and recommendations for monitoring specific to the benthic characterization. Section 3 describes the characterization of marine debris. Section 4 is specific to the characterization of bottom fish. Field surveys were conducted during August 2004, May 2005, and August 2005. A total of 179 surveys were completed over ledge bottom (n=92), sparse live bottom (n=51), flat sand (n=20), and rippled sand (n=16). There were three components to each field survey: fish counting, benthic assessment, and quantification of marine debris. All components occurred within a 25 x 4 m belt transect. Two divers performed the transect at each survey site. One diver was responsible for identification of fish species, size, and abundance using a visual survey. The second diver was responsible for characterization of benthic features using five randomly placed 1 m2 quadrats, measuring ledge height and other benthic structures, and quantifying marine debris within the entire transect. GRNMS is composed of four main bottom types: flat sand, rippled sand, sparsely colonized live bottom, and densely colonized live bottom (ledges). Independent evaluation of the thematic accuracy of the GRNMS benthic map produced by Kendall et al. (2005) revealed high overall accuracy (93%). Most discrepancies between map and diver classification occurred during August 2004 and likely can be attributed to several factors, including actual map or diver errors, and changes in the bottom type due to physical forces. The four bottom types have distinct physical and biological characteristics. Flat and rippled sand bottom types were composed primarily of sand substrate and secondarily shell rubble. Flat sand and rippled sand bottom types were characterized by low percent cover (0-2%) of benthic organisms at all sites. Although the sand bottom types were largely devoid of epifauna, numerous burrows indicate the presence of infaunal organisms. Sparse live bottom and ledges were colonized by macroalgae and numerous invertebrates, including coral, gorgonians, sponges, and “other” benthic species (such as tunicates, anemones, and bryozoans). Ledges and sparse live bottom were similar in terms of diversity (H’) given the level of classification used here. However, percent cover of benthic species, with the exception of gorgonians, was significantly greater on ledge than on sparse live bottom. Percent biotic cover at sparse live bottom ranged from 0.7-26.3%, but was greater than 10% at only 7 out of 51 sites. Colonization on sparse live bottom is likely inhibited by shifting sands, as most sites were covered in a layer of sediment up to several centimeters thick. On ledge bottom type, percent cover ranged from 0.42-100%, with the highest percent cover at ledges in the central and south-central region of GRNMS. Biotic cover on ledges is influenced by local ledge characteristics. Cluster analysis of ledge dimensions (total height, undercut height, undercut width) resulted in three main categories of ledges, which were classified as short, medium, and tall. Median total percent cover was 97.6%, 75.1%, and 17.7% on tall, medium, and short ledges, respectively. Total percent cover and cover of macroalgae, sponges, and other organisms was significantly lower on short ledges compared to medium and tall ledges, but did not vary significantly between medium and tall ledges. Like sparse live bottom, short ledges may be susceptible to burial by sand, however the results indicate that ledge height may only be important to a certain threshold. There are likely other factors not considered here that also influence spatial distribution and community structure (e.g., small scale complexity, ocean currents, differential settlement patterns, and biological interactions). GRNMS is a popular site for recreational fishing and boating, and there has been increased concern about the accumulation of debris in the sanctuary and potential effects on sanctuary resources. Understanding the types, abundance, and distribution of debris is essential to improving debris removal and education efforts. Approximately two-thirds of all observed debris items found during the field surveys were fishing gear, and about half of the fishing related debris was monofilament fishing line. Other fishing related debris included leaders and spear gun parts, and non-gear debris included cans, bottles, and rope. The spatial distribution of debris was concentrated in the center of the sanctuary and was most frequently associated with ledges rather than at other bottom types. Several factors may contribute to this observation. Ledges are often targeted by fishermen due to the association of recreationally important fish species with this bottom type. In addition, ledges are structurally complex and are often densely colonized by biota, providing numerous places for debris to become stuck or entangled. Analysis of observed boat locations indicated that higher boat activity, which is an indication of fishing, occurs in the center of the sanctuary. On ledges, the presence and abundance of debris was significantly related to observed boat density and physiographic features including ledge height, ledge area, and percent cover. While it is likely that most fishing related debris originates from boats inside the sanctuary, preliminary investigation of ocean current data indicate that currents may influence the distribution and local retention of more mobile items. Fish communities at GRNMS are closely linked to benthic habitats. A list of species encountered, probability of occurrence, abundance, and biomass by habitat is provided. Species richness, diversity, composition, abundance, and biomass of fish all showed striking differences depending on bottom type with ledges showing the highest values of nearly all metrics. Species membership was distinctly separated by bottom type as well, although very short, sparsely colonized ledges often had a similar community composition to that of sparse live bottom. Analysis of fish communities at ledges alone indicated that species richness and total abundance of fish were positively related to total percent cover of sessile invertebrates and ledge height. Either ledge attribute was sufficient to result in high abundance or species richness of fish. Fish diversity (H`) was negatively correlated with undercut height due to schools of fish species that utilize ledge undercuts such as Pareques species. Concurrent analysis of ledge types and fish communities indicated that there are five distinct combinations of ledge type and species assemblage. These include, 1) short ledges with little or no undercut that lacked many of the undercut associated species except Urophycis earlii ; 2) tall, heavily colonized, deeply undercut ledges typically with Archosargus probatocephalus, Mycteroperca sp., and Pareques sp.; 3) tall, heavily colonized but less undercut with high occurrence of Lagodon rhomboides and Balistes capriscus; 4) short, heavily colonized ledges typically with Centropristis ocyurus, Halichoeres caudalis, and Stenotomus sp.; and 5) tall, heavily colonized, less undercut typically with Archosargus probatocephalus, Caranx crysos and Seriola sp.. Higher levels of boating activity and presumably fishing pressure did not appear to influence species composition or abundance at the community level although individual species appeared affected. These results indicate that merely knowing the basic characteristics of a ledge such as total height, undercut width, and percent cover of sessile invertebrates would allow good prediction of not only species richness and abundance of fish but also which particular fish species assemblages are likely to occur there. Comparisons with prior studies indicate some major changes in the fish community at GRNMS over the last two decades although the causes of the changes are unknown. Species of interest to recreational fishermen including Centropristis striata, Mycteroperca microlepis, and Mycteroperca phenax were examined in relation to bottom features, areas of assumed high versus low fishing pressure, and spatial dispersion. Both Mycteroperca species were found more frequently when undercut height of ledges was taller. They often were found together in small mixed species groups at ledges in the north central and southwest central regions of the sanctuary. Both had lower mode size and proportion of fish above the fishery size limit in heavily fished areas of the sanctuary (i.e. high boat density) despite the presence of better habitat in that region. Black sea bass, C. striata, occurred at 98% of the ledges surveyed and appeared to be evenly distributed throughout the sanctuary. Abundance was best explained by a positive relationship with percent cover of sessile biota but was also negatively related to presence of either Mycteroperca species. This may be due to predation by the Mycteroperca species or avoidance of sites where they are present by C. striata. Suggestions for monitoring bottom features, marine debris, and bottom fish at GRNMS are provided at the end of each chapter. The present assessment has established quantitative baseline characteristics of many of the key resources and use issues at GRNMS. The methods can be used as a model for future assessments to track the trajectory of GRNMS resources. Belt transects are ideally suited to providing efficient and quantitative assessment of bottom features, debris, and fish at GRNMS. The limited visibility, sensitivity of sessile biota, and linear nature of ledge habitats greatly diminish the utility of other sampling techniques. Ledges should receive the bulk of future characterization effort due to their importance to the sanctuary and high variability in physical structure, benthic composition, and fish assemblages. (PDF contains 107 pages.)

MIRACLE Project Plan

Social scientists have used agent-based models (ABMs) to explore the interaction and feedbacks among social agents and their environments. The bottom-up structure of ABMs enables simulation and investigation of complex systems and their emergent behaviour with a high level of detail; however the stochastic nature and potential combinations of parameters of such models create large non-linear multidimensional “big data,” which are difficult to analyze using traditional statistical methods. Our proposed project seeks to address this challenge by developing algorithms and web-based analysis and visualization tools that provide automated means of discovering complex relationships among variables. The tools will enable modellers to easily manage, analyze, visualize, and compare their output data, and will provide stakeholders, policy makers and the general public with intuitive web interfaces to explore, interact with and provide feedback on otherwise difficult-to-understand models.