Probabilistic models for mechanical properties of prestressing strands

This study focus on the probabilistic modelling of mechanical properties of prestressing strands based on data collected from tensile tests carried out in Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC), Portugal, for certification purposes, and covers a period of about 9 years of production. The strands studied were produced by six manufacturers from four countries, namely Portugal, Spain, Italy and Thailand. Variability of the most important mechanicalproperties is examined and the results are compared with the recommendations of the ProbabilisticModel Code, as well as the Eurocodes and earlier studies. The obtained results show a very low variability which, of course, benefits structural safety. Based on those results, probabilistic modelsfor the most important mechanical properties of prestressing strands are proposed.

Non-linear time series models

The last three decades have seen quite dramatic changes the way we modeled time dependent data. Linear processes have been in the center stage in modeling time series. As far as the second order properties are concerned, the theory and the methodology are very adequate.However, there are more and more evidences that linear models are not sufficiently flexible and rich enough for modeling purposes and that failure to account for non-linearities can be very misleading and have undesired consequences.

A score test for non-nested hypotheses with applications to discrete data models

This paper suggests that a convenient score test against non-nested alternatives can be constructed from the linear combination of the likelihood functions of the competing models. It is shown that this procedure is essentially a test for the correct specification of the conditional distribution of the variable of interest.

Comparing the performance of geostatistical models with additional information from covariates for sewage plume characterization

In this work, kriging with covariates is used to model and map the spatial distribution of salinity measurements gathered by an autonomous underwater vehicle in a sea outfall monitoring campaign aiming to distinguish the effluent plume from the receiving waters and characterize its spatial variability in the vicinity of the discharge. Four different geostatistical linear models for salinity were assumed, where the distance to diffuser, the west-east positioning, and the south-north positioning were used as covariates. Sample variograms were fitted by the Mat`ern models using weighted least squares and maximum likelihood estimation methods as a way to detect eventual discrepancies. Typically, the maximum likelihood method estimated very low ranges which have limited the kriging process. So, at least for these data sets, weighted least squares showed to be the most appropriate estimation method for variogram fitting. The kriged maps show clearly the spatial variation of salinity, and it is possible to identify the effluent plume in the area studied. The results obtained show some guidelines for sewage monitoring if a geostatistical analysis of the data is in mind. It is important to treat properly the existence of anomalous values and to adopt a sampling strategy that includes transects parallel and perpendicular to the effluent dispersion.

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Tuple-based morphisms for interoperability establishment of financial information models

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e Computadores

Diversidade genética e resistência natural ao Maraviroc em estirpes do vírus da imunodeficiência humana Tipo 1 (HIV-1) em circulação em utilizadores de drogas por via endovenosa na Grande Lisboa

RESUMO: O maraviroc (MVC) é o único anti-retroviral antagonista do co-receptor CCR5 licenciado e interage com as ansas transmembranares de CCR5, induzindo uma alteração da sua conformação e impedindo a interacção com gp120. O MVC é activo apenas contra estirpes R5 de HIV-1, sendo utilizado em terapia de recurso. Neste trabalho, foi estudada a diversidade genética da região C2V3C3 do gene env de estirpes de HIV-1 de oxicodependentes por via endovenosa da Grande Lisboa, pesquisando-se também a presença de polimorfismos genéticos naturais. Foram utilizadas 52 amostras de plasma e para 35 destas foi amplificado por RT-nested PCR um produto de 565 pb. A análise filogenética revelou a seguinte distribuição de genótipos: 23 B (incluindo, provavelmente, 2 CRF14_BG), 8 A, 3 G e 1 F1. Após tradução, e por comparação com a sequência consenso B, verificou-se uma elevada frequência de polimorfismos genéticos, sendo encontradas algumas “assinaturas de aminoácidos” relativas aos subtipos não-B. Realizou-se ainda uma pesquisa de locais de N-glicosilação e a previsão da utilização de co-receptores (abordagem genotípica), com recurso às regras 11/25 e da carga líquida da ansa V3 e aos programas PSSM e geno2pheno[coreceptor]. Observou-se uma conservação genérica do número de locais de N-glicosilação e foram identificadas 5 sequências com tropismo X4 ou duplo. Por fim, com base na literatura, realizou-se uma pesquisa de polimorfismos genéticos associados a resistência ao MVC presentes na ansa V3. Foi observado um número elevado destas mutações. A presença dos padrões 11S+26V e 20F+25D+26V, num total de 3 sequências, é relevante, visto estes estarem inequivocamente associados à resistência in vivo ao MVC. Apesar de não estar ainda definido um perfil de resistência para o MVC, a presença das mutações encontradas, em indivíduos sem contacto prévio com o fármaco, trará implicações relevantes na sua gestão clínica, considerando a introdução do MVC na terapia de recurso.---------- ABSTRACT: Maraviroc (MVC) is the only CCR5 inhibitor licensed today. This drug interacts with the transmembrane helices of CCR5 co-receptor, inducing a conformation change of its extracellular loops and preventing the interaction with gp120. MVC is only active against R5 strains of HIV-1 and is currently used in salvage therapy. The genetic diversity of the env C2V3C3 region of HIV-1 strains from injecting drug users in the Greater Lisbon was studied, along with the presence of natural genetic polymorphisms. 52 plasma samples were used and the amplification by RT-nested PCR of a 565 bp-product was possible in 35 of them. The phylogenetic analysis revealed 23 sequences classified as subtype B (probably including 2 CRF14_BG), 8 A, 3 G and 1 F1. After translation, the presence of natural genetic polymorphisms was studied by comparison to a subtype B consensus. A high frequency of genetic polymorphisms was observed and significant “amino acid signatures” were found in association with non-B subtypes. A full characterization of the N-glycosylation sites was also performed and a coreceptor prediction (genotypic approach) was accomplished using the 11/25 and the V3 net charge rules and the programs PSSM and geno2pheno[coreceptor]. The number of N-glycosylation sites was generically preserved. Five sequences were defined as X4 or dual-tropic. Based on published data, a search for genetic polymorphisms, present in V3loop, associated to MVC resistance was finally undertaken. Several of such mutations were observed, being particularly interesting the presence of the patterns 11S+26V and 20F+25D+26V, in a total of 3 sequences, since these patterns have unequivocally been associated with MVC resistance in vivo. Although a resistance profile for MVC is not yet defined, the presence of these mutations in MVC-naïve populations may have significant impact in their clinical management in the future, especially considering the introduction of this drug in salvage therapy.

ANIMAL MODELS FOR THE STUDY OF LEISHMANIASIS IMMUNOLOGY

Leishmaniasis remains a major public health problem worldwide and is classified as Category I by the TDR/WHO, mainly due to the absence of control. Many experimental models like rodents, dogs and monkeys have been developed, each with specific features, in order to characterize the immune response to Leishmania species, but none reproduces the pathology observed in human disease. Conflicting data may arise in part because different parasite strains or species are being examined, different tissue targets (mice footpad, ear, or base of tail) are being infected, and different numbers (“low” 1×102 and “high” 1×106) of metacyclic promastigotes have been inoculated. Recently, new approaches have been proposed to provide more meaningful data regarding the host response and pathogenesis that parallels human disease. The use of sand fly saliva and low numbers of parasites in experimental infections has led to mimic natural transmission and find new molecules and immune mechanisms which should be considered when designing vaccines and control strategies. Moreover, the use of wild rodents as experimental models has been proposed as a good alternative for studying the host-pathogen relationships and for testing candidate vaccines. To date, using natural reservoirs to study Leishmania infection has been challenging because immunologic reagents for use in wild rodents are lacking. This review discusses the principal immunological findings against Leishmania infection in different animal models highlighting the importance of using experimental conditions similar to natural transmission and reservoir species as experimental models to study the immunopathology of the disease.

Landslide susceptibility assessment in Karanganyar regency - Indonesia - Comparison of knowledge-based and Data-driven Models

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Algorithm for the Parkinson’s disease behavioural models characterization using a biosensor

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Biomédica

Analysis of mental health service financial models with a particular emphasis of Ireland

ABSTRACT: Financing is a critical factor in ensuring the optimal development and delivery of a mental health system. The primary method of financing worldwide is tax-based. However many low income countries depend on out-of-pocket payments. There is a report on Irish Health Care funding but none that deals exclusively with mental health care. This paper analyses the various financial models that exist globally with respect to financing the mental health sector, examines the impact of various models on service users, especially in terms of relative ‘financial burden’ and provides a more detailed examination of the current mental health funding situation in Ireland After extensive internet and hardcopy research on the above topics, the findings were analysed and a number of recommendations were reached. Mental health service should be free at the point of delivery to achieve universal coverage. Government tax-based funding or mandatory social insurance with government top-ups, as required, appears the optimal option, although there is no one funding system applicable everywhere. Out-of-pocket funding can create a crippling financial burden for service users. It is important to employ improved revenue collection systems, eliminate waste, provide equitable resource distribution, ring fence mental health funding and cap the number of visits, where necessary. Political, economic, social and cultural factors play a role in funding decisions and this can be clearly seen in the context of the current economic recession in Ireland. Only 33% of the Irish population has access to free public health care and the number health insurance policy holders has dramatically declined, resulting in increased out-of-pocket payments. This approach risks negatively impacting on the social determinants of health, increasing health inequalities and negatively affecting economic productivity. It is therefore important the Irish government examines other options to provide funding for mental health services.

Empirical models for quantification of machining damage in composite materials

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Mecânica

Derivation and consistency checking of models in early software product line engineering

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Informática

Avaliação da lesão genética induzida por exposição a radiação ionizante na população Portuguesa

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Genética Molecular e Biomedicina

Business models in the portuguese football clubs

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics