Baltic Sea : security tomorrow - three future scenarios

Aineisto on Keskustakampuksen kirjaston digitoimaa ja kirjasto vastaa aineiston käyttöluvista.

Examining effectiveness of an immigrant labor market integration intervention. The role of acculturation, discrimination, self-efficacy, outcome expectances, action and coping planning.

The designing of effective intervention tools to improve immigrants’ labor market integration remains an important topic in contemporary Western societies. This study examines whether and how a new intervention tool, Working Life Certificate (WLC), helps unemployed immigrants to find employment and strengthen their belief of their vocational skills. The study is based on quantitative longitudinal survey data from 174 unemployed immigrants of various origins who participated in the pilot phase of WLC examinations in 2009. Surveys were administered in three waves: before the test, right after it, and three months later. Although it is often argued that the unemployment among immigrants is due either to their lack of skills and cultural differences or to discrimination in recruitment, scholars within social psychology of behavior change argue that the best way of helping people to achieve their goals (e.g. finding employment) is to build up their sense of self-efficacy, alter their outcome expectances in a more positive direction or to help them to construct more detailed action and coping plans. This study aims to shed light on the role of these concepts in immigrants’ labor market integration. The results support the theories of behavior change moderately. Having positive expectances regarding the outcomes of various job search behaviors was found to predict employment in the future. Together with action and coping planning it also predicted increase in job search behavior. The intervention, WLC, was able to affect participants’ self-efficacy, but contrary to expectations, self-efficacy was found not to be related to either job search behavior or future labor market status. Also, perceived discrimination did not explain problems in finding employment, but hints of subtle or structural discrimination were found. Adoption of Finnish work culture together with strong family culture was found to predict future employment. Hence, in this thesis I argue that awarding people diplomas should be preferred in immigrant integration training as it strengthens people’s sense of self-efficacy. Instead of teaching new information, more attention should be directed at changing people’s outcome expectances in a more positive direction and helping them to construct detailed plans on how to achieve their goals.

Branding: The Past, Present, and Future: A Study of the Evolution and Future of Branding

Branding, as any other concept, has evolved over time: from the days when sheep of one herd started to be branded to distinguish them from another herd to the current era when everything, from water and flowers to clothes and food, is branded. Throughout these times, there have been numerous theories to describe and understand the underlying nuances. This paper finds the relationships in previous literature and reveals how these theories see branding from various perspectives and how they can be integrated to form a coherent view. It is also discussed how branding and society affect each other. Based on the knowledge of how branding theories have been developed as dependent variables of each other and the society, we are able to form a better understanding of the past, the present, and the future of branding.

Do Households Have Rational Expectations on Future Consumption? Evidence from the Finnish Consumer Survey

Ever since its initial introduction some fifty years ago, the rational expectations paradigm has dominated the way economic theory handles uncertainty. The main assertion made by John F. Muth (1961), seen by many as the father of the paradigm, is that expectations of rational economic agents should essentially be equal to the predictions of relevant economic theory, since rational agents should use information available to them in an optimal way. This assumption often has important consequences on the results and interpretations of the models where it is applied. Although the rational expectations assumption can be applied to virtually any economic theory, the focus in this thesis is on macroeconomic theories of consumption, especially the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis proposed by Robert E. Hall in 1978. The much-debated theory suggests that, assuming that agents have rational expectations on their future income, consumption decisions should follow a random walk, and the best forecast of future consumption level is the current consumption level. Then, changes in consumption are unforecastable. This thesis constructs an empirical test for the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis using Finnish Consumer Survey data as well as various Finnish macroeconomic data. The data sample covers the years 1995–2010. Consumer survey data may be interpreted to directly represent household expectations, which makes it an interesting tool for this particular test. The variable to be predicted is the growth of total household consumption expenditure. The main empirical result is that the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), a balance figure computed from the most important consumer survey responses, does have statistically significant predictive power over the change in total consumption expenditure. The history of consumption expenditure growth itself, however, fails to predict its own future values. This indicates that the CCI contains some information that the history of consumption decisions does not, and that the consumption decisions are not optimal in the theoretical context. However, when conditioned on various macroeconomic variables, the CCI loses its predictive ability. This finding suggests that the index is merely a (partial) summary of macroeconomic information, and does not contain any significant private information on consumption intentions of households not directly deductible from the objective economic variables. In conclusion, the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis is strongly rejected by the empirical results in this thesis. This result is in accordance with most earlier studies conducted on the topic.

Numeroiden harhaa vai toteutuksen työkaluja? -indikaattorien käyttö maatalouden ympäristöpoliittisessa suunnittelussa

This research focused on indicators with the aim of recognizing the main characters of this particular tool. The planning and use of Finnish sustainability indicators for natural resource management was examined as well as the experiences about the international sets of agri-environmental indicators were described. In both cases, the actual utilization of information was found to be quite minimal. Indicators have succeeded in bringing more of environmental information into the processes of decision making, but information has not been directly shifted into the actions of natural resource management. The concept of technical use of indicators was presented and considered as a possible explanation for the failures of information transfer and communication. Traditionally indicators have been used in order to recognize and describe the performance of certain system; to provide clear operative message for the actors. In policy planning, the situation is essentially different. We may lack both the jointly shared and accepted objectives of development as well the reliable and representative methods for measuring the issue under attention. Therefore, the technical orientation of using indicators may cause several problems at the policy forum. The study identified the risks of 1) reduced informative basis of decision-making, 2) narrowed approach of interpreting the data, 3) the focus on the issues that already are best documented and provides the most representative data series, and 4) the risks of losing the systemic viewpoints while focusing on measurable details of the system. Technical use of indicators may also result the excessive focus on information while being detached from the actions. With sustainability indicators, the major emphasis was indeed paid with producing information while the reality of agricultural practices was left mostly unaffected. Therefore, the essential process of social learning, where actions and producing of relevant information are alternating was neither realized. This study underlines the complexity of information transfer, mutual communication and the learning of new practices. Besides the information and measurable number people also need personal experiences and interesting stories, which make them to understand the meaning of information in their own lives. Particularly important this is for thechildren, who are studying for to be the future decision-makers of food system; in production as well as the in consumption of food. Numbers will be useful tools of management as soon there exists the awareness of the direction, where to strive for.

A review of hybrid rockets: present status and future potential

This paper discusses the potential of the hybrid rocket engine as a viable and attractive mode of propulsion for both space vehicles and missiles. Research and development work on this engine in other countries is presented and evaluated. The various advantages of a hybrid engine over solid and liquid engines and its problems are highlighted. It has been argued that because of the low technology needed in the development of the hybrid system, it constitutes a cost-and-time-effective propulsion system for several applications in space programmes as well as weapon systems. In support of this conclusion, experience on the developmental studies of a variable thrust 100 kg engine is presented. Some future possibilities for hybrid propulsion systems are cited.

Comment on “Southward magnetic field in the neutral sheet produced by wavy motions Propagating in the dawn‐dusk direction”

In a recent paper Nakagawa and Nishida [1989] have suggested that wavy motions of the neutral sheet can be generated by the Kelvin‐Helmholtz instability if the dawn‐dusk flow of only several tens of km/s is present. However, their mathematical analysis is based on the choice of particular magnetic field directions in the three regions consisting of north, south lobes and the neutral sheet. In an earlier paper Uberoi [1986] discussed the Kelvin‐Helmholtz instability of a similar structured plasma layer without any assumptions either on velocity field directions or on the magnetic field directions, thus pointing out the angle effect due to variation in magnetic field directions on the instability criterion. The relevance of these results to the problem of wavy motions of the neutral sheet are pointed out. In particular it is found that when the y‐component of the magnetic field in each lobe is taken into consideration the Kelvin‐Helmholtz instability can be exicted only when the dawn‐dusk flow is of several hundreds of km/s a order of ten higher than that arrived in the analysis by Nakagawa and Nishida [1989].

Future challenges of forest policy analysis.

XVIII IUFRO World Congress, Ljubljana 1986.

Processing and fiber content effects on the machinability of compression moulded random direction short GFRP composites

The random direction short Glass Fiber Reinforced Plastics (GFRP) have been prepared by two compression moulding processes, namely the Preform and Sheet Moulding Compound (SMC) processes. Cutting force analysis and surface characterization are conducted on the random direction short GFRPs with varying fiber contents (25 similar to 40%). Edge trimming experiments are preformed using carbide inserts with varing the depth of cut and cutting speed. Machining characteristics of the Preform and SMC processed random direction short GFRPs are evaluated in terms of cutting forces, surface quality, and tool wear. It is found that composite primary processing and fiber contents are major contributing factors influencing the cutting force magnitudes and surface textures. The SMC composites show better surface finish over the Preform composites due to less delamination and fiber pullouts. Moreover, matrix damage and fiber protrusions at the machined edge are reduced by increasing fiber content in the random direction short GFRP composites.

Influence of Inclination Angle and Machining Direction on Friction and Transfer Layer Formation

In the present investigation, unidirectional grinding marks were created on a set of steel plates. Sliding experiments were then conducted with the prepared steel plates using Al-Mg alloy pins and an inclined pin-on-plate sliding tester. The goals of the experiments were to ascertain the influence of inclination angle and grinding mark direction on friction and transfer layer formation during sliding contact. The inclination angle of the plate was held at 0.2 deg, 0.6 deg, 1 deg, 1.4 deg, 1.8 deg, 2.2 deg, and 2.6 deg in the tests. The pins were slid both perpendicular and parallel to the grinding marks direction. The experiments were conducted under both dry and lubricated conditions on each plate in an ambient environment. Results showed that the coefficient of friction and the formation of transfer layer depend on the grinding marks direction and inclination angle of the hard surfaces. For a given inclination angle, under both dry and lubricated conditions, the coefficient of friction and transfer layer formation were found to be greater when the pins slid perpendicular to the unidirectional grinding marks than when the pins slid parallel to the grinding marks. In addition, a stick-slip phenomenon was observed under lubricated conditions at the highest inclination angle for sliding perpendicular to the grinding marks direction. This phenomenon could be attributed to the extent of plane strain conditions taking place at the asperity level during sliding. DOI: 10.1115/1.4002604]

Accessibility as a determinant of opportunities : A case study from Peruvian Amazonia

Accessibility is a crucial factor for interaction between areas in economic, cultural, political and environmental terms. Therefore, information concerning accessibility is relevant for informed decision making, planning and research. The Loreto region in the Peruvian Amazonia provides an interesting scene for an accessibility study. Loreto is sparsely populated and because there are few roads in the region, in practice all movement and transportation happens along the river network. Due to the proximity of the Andes, river dynamics are strong and annual changes in water level combined with these dynamic processes constantly reshape accessibility patterns of the region. Selling non-timber forest products (NTFP) and agricultural products (AP) in regional centres is an important income source for local rain forest dwellers. Thus, accessibility to the centres is crucial for the livelihood of local population. -- In this thesis I studied how accessible the regional centre Iquitos is from other parts of Loreto. In addition, I studied the regional NTFP/AP trade patterns and compared them with patterns of accessibility. Based on GPS-measurements, using GIS, I created a time-distance surface covering Loreto. This surface describes the time-distance to Iquitos, along the river network. Based on interview material, I assessed annual changes to accessibility patterns in the region. The most common regional NTFP/AP were classified according to the amount of time they can be preserved, and based on the accessibility surface, I modelled a catchment area for each of these product classes. -- According to my results, navigation speeds vary considerably in different parts of the river network, depending on river types, vessels, flow direction and season. Navigating downstream is, generally, faster than upstream navigation. Thus, Iquitos is better accessible from areas situated south and south west of the city, like along the rivers Ucayali and Marañon. Differences in accessibility between different seasons are also substantial: during the dry season navigation is slower due to lower water levels and emerging sand bars. Regularly operating boats follow routes only along certain rivers and close to Iquitos transport facilities are more abundant than in more distant areas. Most of the products present in Iquitos market places are agricultural products, and the share of NTFP is significantly smaller. Most of the products were classified in product class 2, and the catchment area for these products is rather small. Many products also belonged to class 5, and the catchment area for these products reaches up to the edges of my study area, following the patterns of the river network. -- The accessibility model created in this study predicts travel times relatively well, although in some cases the modelled time-distances are substantially shorter than observed time-distances. This is partly caused by the fact that real-life navigation routes are more complicated than the modelled routes. Rain forest dwellers having easier access to Iquitos have more opportunities in terms of the products they decide to market. Thus, they can better take advantage of other factors affecting the market potential of different products. -- In all, understanding spatial variation in accessibility is important. In the Amazonian context it is difficult to combine the accessibility-related needs of the local dwellers with conservation purposes and the future challenge lies in finding solution that satisfy both of these needs.

CO2-fertilization and potential future terrestrial carbon uptake in India

There is huge knowledge gap in our understanding of many terrestrial carbon cycle processes. In this paper, we investigate the bounds on terrestrial carbon uptake over India that arises solely due to CO (2) -fertilization. For this purpose, we use a terrestrial carbon cycle model and consider two extreme scenarios: unlimited CO2-fertilization is allowed for the terrestrial vegetation with CO2 concentration level at 735 ppm in one case, and CO2-fertilization is capped at year 1975 levels for another simulation. Our simulations show that, under equilibrium conditions, modeled carbon stocks in natural potential vegetation increase by 17 Gt-C with unlimited fertilization for CO2 levels and climate change corresponding to the end of 21st century but they decline by 5.5 Gt-C if fertilization is limited at 1975 levels of CO2 concentration. The carbon stock changes are dominated by forests. The area covered by natural potential forests increases by about 36% in the unlimited fertilization case but decreases by 15% in the fertilization-capped case. Thus, the assumption regarding CO2-fertilization has the potential to alter the sign of terrestrial carbon uptake over India. Our model simulations also imply that the maximum potential terrestrial sequestration over India, under equilibrium conditions and best case scenario of unlimited CO2-fertilization, is only 18% of the 21st century SRES A2 scenarios emissions from India. The limited uptake potential of the natural potential vegetation suggests that reduction of CO2 emissions and afforestation programs should be top priorities.