Assessing the vulnerability of blanket peat to climate change using an ensemble of statistical bioclimatic envelope models

We assessed the vulnerability of blanket peat to climate change in Great Britain using an ensemble of 8 bioclimatic envelope models. We used 4 published models that ranged from simple threshold models, based on total annual precipitation, to Generalised Linear Models (GLMs, based on mean annual temperature). In addition, 4 new models were developed which included measures of water deficit as threshold, classification tree, GLM and generalised additive models (GAM). Models that included measures of both hydrological conditions and maximum temperature provided a better fit to the mapped peat area than models based on hydrological variables alone. Under UKCIP02 projections for high (A1F1) and low (B1) greenhouse gas emission scenarios, 7 out of the 8 models showed a decline in the bioclimatic space associated with blanket peat. Eastern regions (Northumbria, North York Moors, Orkney) were shown to be more vulnerable than higher-altitude, western areas (Highlands, Western Isles and Argyle, Bute and The Trossachs). These results suggest a long-term decline in the distribution of actively growing blanket peat, especially under the high emissions scenario, although it is emphasised that existing peatlands may well persist for decades under a changing climate. Observational data from long-term monitoring and manipulation experiments in combination with process-based models are required to explore the nature and magnitude of climate change impacts on these vulnerable areas more fully.

‘Scripture its own interpreter’: Mary Martha Sherwood, the Bible and female autobiography

This is a reading of the work of Mary Martha Sherwood, the Victorian Evangelist and Children’s Author (and pupil at the Abbey School, Reading). Based upon research on Sherwood’s private correspondences and diary conducted at UCLA with the aid of a Mitzi Myers (this before my arrival at Reading), the essay offers a radical reinterpretation of her work. Previously understood in terms of a rigid, if self-contradictory and ‘anxious’, Evangelism, the essay reads the diary through Sherwood’s little known Biblical scholarship. Through this I argue that Sherwood grants her own writing the status of Biblical truth precisely because of its contradictions and ‘anxiety’.

Community development in sustainable livelihoods approaches: an introduction

This article introduces sustainable livelihoods approaches, explaining what they are and how they have emerged. It examines how different organizations have taken up a sustainable livelihoods approach, and considers whether in so doing they have drawn on community development thinking and practice. It is found that community development is largely absent from sustainable livelihoods thinking and contended that part of the reason lies with the locally situated character of community development practice, which makes it difficult for externally driven sustainable livelihoods interventions to systematically incorporate community-level methods and practices. More fundamentally, sustainable livelihoods approaches embody a technocratic development drive, which is at odds with the principles, ethos and values that underpin much development work.

Aesthetical and narrative uses of the trench in the Hollywood cinema of 1918-1930

Throughout history of painting, the representation of landscape has been considered a laboratory for the human gaze on the world. The First World War and its new approach to the battlefield altered deeply the classical forms of representation, and replaced them with a mechanised and fragmentary vision, which was related with the development of photography and cinema. As Vicente J. Benet has analysed, Hollywod cinema used these deep changes in its filmic versions of the conflict, although it organised them following a narrative logic. In this text we intend to study how the battlefield and, particularly, the trench, are inserted in this logic of the history of landscape painting. We do so through some Hollywood films from the period 1918-1930. Firstly, we approach the trench as a composition value which can structure the image and guide the camera movement. In the second place, we study how it creates a dialog between its inside, melodrama scenery, and the outside, battlefield and danger. In both cases, we conclude that the trench as a form and as a narrative element plays a structuring and integrative role with the storytelling logic.

Prevalence and nonrandom distribution of exonic mutations in interferon regulatory factor 6 in 307 families with Van der Woude syndrome and 37 families with popliteal pterygium syndrome

Purpose: Interferon regulatory factor 6 encodes a member of the IRF family of transcription factors. Mutations in interferon regulatory factor 6 cause Van der Woude and popliteal pterygium syndrome, two related orofacial clefting disorders. Here, we compared and contrasted the frequency and distribution of exonic Mutations in interferon regulatory factor 6 between two large geographically distinct collections of families with Van der Woude and between one collection of families with popliteal pterygium syndrome. Methods: We performed direct sequence analysis of interferon regulatory factor 6 exons oil samples from three collections, two with Van der Woude and one with popliteal pterygium syndrome. Results: We identified mutations in interferon regulatory factor 6 exons in 68% of families in both Van der Woude collections and in 97% of families with popliteal pterygium syndrome. In sum, 106 novel disease-causing variants were found. The distribution of mutations in the interferon regulatory factor 6 exons in each collection was not random; exons 3, 4, 7, and 9 accounted for 80%. In the Van der Woude collections, the mutations were evenly divided between protein truncation and missense, whereas most mutations identified in the popliteal pterygium syndrome collection were missense. Further, the missense mutations associated with popliteal pterygium syndrome were localized significantly to exon 4, at residues that are predicted to bind directly to DNA. Conclusion: The nonrandom distribution of mutations in the interferon regulatory factor 6 exons suggests a two-tier approach for efficient mutation screens for interferon regulatory factor 6. The type and distribution of mutations are consistent with the hypothesis that Van der Woude is caused by haploinsufficiency of interferon regulatory factor 6. Oil the other hand, the distribution of popliteal pterygium syndrome-associated mutations suggests a different, though not mutually exclusive, effect oil interferon regulatory factor 6 function. Genet Med 2009:11(4):241-247.

Missionsförbundets ungdomsförening i Borlänge 1930-1950

Denna uppsats studerar hur en lokal avdelning inom SMU i Sverige påverkas av det som försiggår i omvärlden mellan 1930-1950. De faktorer som studeras är världskriget, sekulariseringen, ungdomsdebatten, bibelsynsfrågan och depressionen. Undersökningen speglar makrofrågor ur ett mikroperspektiv. Uppsatsens resultat är att SMU i Borlänge påverkas väldigt lite under perioden. Verksamheten inom SMU i Borlänge är förhållande vis lika från år till år. Den största förändringen är att församlingen tappar en stor del av sina medlemmar. Minskningen av medlemsantalet är större än motsvarande minskning inom SMF i Borlänge och SMF nationellt. Förutom medlemsminskningen framförs ett krav på ökade bibelstudier och andra aktiviteter av andlig natur 1942. Orsaken till detta krav är svår att fastställa men det finns anledning att tro att samtliga undersökningspunkter kan har varit bidragande faktorer. Troligtvis har debatten om ungdomens moraliska förfall och sekulariseringen varit de mest betydelsefulla faktorerna.