Changes of traditional farming systems and their effects on land degradation and socio-economic conditions in the Inle Lake region, Myanmar

At many locations in Myanmar, ongoing changes in land use have negative environmental impacts and threaten natural ecosystems at local, regional and national scales. In particular, the watershed area of Inle Lake in eastern Myanmar is strongly affected by the environmental effects of deforestation and soil erosion caused by agricultural intensification and expansion of agricultural land, which are exacerbated by the increasing population pressure and the growing number of tourists. This thesis, therefore, focuses on land use changes in traditional farming systems and their effects on socio-economic and biophysical factors to improve our understanding of sustainable natural resource management of this wetland ecosystem. The main objectives of this research were to: (1) assess the noticeable land transformations in space and time, (2) identify the typical farming systems as well as the divergent livelihood strategies, and finally, (3) estimate soil erosion risk in the different agro-ecological zones surrounding the Inle Lake watershed area. GIS and remote sensing techniques allowed to identify the dynamic land use and land cover changes (LUCC) during the past 40 years based on historical Corona images (1968) and Landsat images (1989, 2000 and 2009). In this study, 12 land cover classes were identified and a supervised classification was used for the Landsat datasets, whereas a visual interpretation approach was conducted for the Corona images. Within the past 40 years, the main landscape transformation processes were deforestation (- 49%), urbanization (+ 203%), agricultural expansion (+ 34%) with a notably increase of floating gardens (+ 390%), land abandonment (+ 167%), and marshlands losses in wetland area (- 83%) and water bodies (- 16%). The main driving forces of LUCC appeared to be high population growth, urbanization and settlements, a lack of sustainable land use and environmental management policies, wide-spread rural poverty, an open market economy and changes in market prices and access. To identify the diverse livelihood strategies in the Inle Lake watershed area and the diversity of income generating activities, household surveys were conducted (total: 301 households) using a stratified random sampling design in three different agro-ecological zones: floating gardens (FG), lowland cultivation (LL) and upland cultivation (UP). A cluster and discriminant analysis revealed that livelihood strategies and socio-economic situations of local communities differed significantly in the different zones. For all three zones, different livelihood strategies were identified which differed mainly in the amount of on-farm and off-farm income, and the level of income diversification. The gross margin for each household from agricultural production in the floating garden, lowland and upland cultivation was US$ 2108, 892 and 619 ha-1 respectively. Among the typical farming systems in these zones, tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum L.) plantation in the floating gardens yielded the highest net benefits, but caused negative environmental impacts given the overuse of inorganic fertilizers and pesticides. The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and spatial analysis within GIS were applied to estimate soil erosion risk in the different agricultural zones and for the main cropping systems of the study region. The results revealed that the average soil losses in year 1989, 2000 and 2009 amounted to 20, 10 and 26 t ha-1, respectively and barren land along the steep slopes had the highest soil erosion risk with 85% of the total soil losses in the study area. Yearly fluctuations were mainly caused by changes in the amount of annual precipitation and the dynamics of LUCC such as deforestation and agriculture extension with inappropriate land use and unsustainable cropping systems. Among the typical cropping systems, upland rainfed rice (Oryza sativa L.) cultivation had the highest rate of soil erosion (20 t ha-1yr-1) followed by sebesten (Cordia dichotoma) and turmeric (Curcuma longa) plantation in the UP zone. This study indicated that the hotspot region of soil erosion risk were upland mountain areas, especially in the western part of the Inle lake. Soil conservation practices are thus urgently needed to control soil erosion and lake sedimentation and to conserve the wetland ecosystem. Most farmers have not yet implemented soil conservation measures to reduce soil erosion impacts such as land degradation, sedimentation and water pollution in Inle Lake, which is partly due to the low economic development and poverty in the region. Key challenges of agriculture in the hilly landscapes can be summarized as follows: fostering the sustainable land use of farming systems for the maintenance of ecosystem services and functions while improving the social and economic well-being of the population, integrated natural resources management policies and increasing the diversification of income opportunities to reduce pressure on forest and natural resources.

Farmers’ knowledge and perceptions of potato pests and their management in Uganda

As we initiate entomological research on potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) in Uganda, there is need to understand farmers’ knowledge of existing insect pest problems and their management practices. Such information is important for designing a suitable intervention and successful integrated pest management (IPM) strategy. A farm household survey using a structured questionnaire was conducted among 204 potato farmers in six districts of Uganda (i.e., Kabale, Kisoro, Mbale, Kapchorwa, Mubende, and Kyegegwa) during August and September 2013. Diseases, insect pests, price fluctuations, and low market prices were the four highest ranked constraints in potato production, in order of decreasing importance. Cutworms (Agrotis spp.), aphids (Myzus persicae (Sulzer)), and potato tuber moth (Phthorimaea operculella (Zeller)) were the three most severe insect pests. Ants (Dorylis orantalis Westwood), whiteflies (Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius)), and leafminer flies (Liriomyza huidobrensis (Blanchard)) were pests of moderate importance. Major yield losses are predominantly due to late blight (Phytophthora infestans (Mont.) de Bary) and reached 100% without chemical control in the districts of Kabale, Kisoro, Mbale, and Kapchorwa. On average, farmers had little to moderate knowledge about pest characteristics. The predominant control methods were use of fungicides (72% of respondents) and insecticides (62% of respondents). On average, only 5% of the 204 farmers knew about insect pests and their natural enemies. This lack of knowledge calls for training of both farmers and extension workers in insect pest identification, their biology, and control. Empowering farmers with knowledge about insect pests is essential for the reduction of pesticide misuse and uptake of more environmentally friendly approaches like IPM. Field surveys would need follow-up in order to assess the actual field infestation rates and intensities of each insect pest and compare the results with the responses received from farmers.

Freedom for rent. Informal housing market of Caracas

For years it was believed that in Caracas an informal rental housing market did not exist. A survey (n:832) in seven informal areas shows the opposite. The article analyzes the socio-legal aspects and characteristics of the market: the negotiated property, the rent, the actors and the norms that regulate the market. It is concluded that the Venezuelan State, with its controls and social policies, has become the principal promoter of the informal rental market and that because of the freedom to rent, the poor are the real estate agents that contribute most to meeting the increasing demand for housing.

Option pricing in market models driven by telegraph processes with jumps

Esta tesis está dividida en dos partes: en la primera parte se presentan y estudian los procesos telegráficos, los procesos de Poisson con compensador telegráfico y los procesos telegráficos con saltos. El estudio presentado en esta primera parte incluye el cálculo de las distribuciones de cada proceso, las medias y varianzas, así como las funciones generadoras de momentos entre otras propiedades. Utilizando estas propiedades en la segunda parte se estudian los modelos de valoración de opciones basados en procesos telegráficos con saltos. En esta parte se da una descripción de cómo calcular las medidas neutrales al riesgo, se encuentra la condición de no arbitraje en este tipo de modelos y por último se calcula el precio de las opciones Europeas de compra y venta.

The transition of the Polish real estate market within a Central and Eastern European context

The real estate market in Poland is a relatively immature market, but one that has been experiencing substantial transformation. The development of the market has been encouraged by a number of factors, including changes arising as a result of new legislation and the migration of capital between capital markets. The progress of the real estate sector towards a western style competitive market has taken place within the gradual transformation of the Polish economy into a free market economy. As investment grade property is in relatively short supply in Poland, investors consider opportunities within the wider CEE block. An analysis of the risk-return characteristics of the three largest CEE real estate markets namely, Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic, shows that the returns in these markets have been negatively correlated with the UK. As these economies and markets evolve, and being part of the wider EU trading block, their economic performance will slowly converge and become more synchronized with their western counterparts. However, the catch-up of the CEE markets to western European performance cycles will be protracted and consequently there are likely to be significant ongoing portfolio risk reduction opportunities

Intrinsic and rational speculative bubbles in the U.S. housing market 1960-2011

This paper examines the dynamics of the residential property market in the United States between 1960 and 2011. Given the cyclically and apparent overvaluation of the market over this period, we determine whether deviations of real estate prices from their fundamentals were caused by the existence of two genres of bubbles: intrinsic bubbles and rational speculative bubbles. We find evidence of an intrinsic bubble in the market pre-2000, implying that overreaction to changes in rents contributed to the overvaluation of real estate prices. However, using a regime-switching model, we find evidence of periodically collapsing rational bubbles in the post-2000 market

"Oft expectation fails": a time-series analysis of construction starts in the London office market

Expectations of future market conditions are generally acknowledged to be crucial for the development decision and hence for shaping the built environment. This empirical study of the Central London office market from 1987 to 2009 tests for evidence of adaptive and naive expectations. Applying VAR models and a recursive OLS regression with one-step forecasts, we find evidence of adaptive and naïve, rather than rational expectations of developers. Although the magnitude of the errors and the length of time lags vary over time and development cycles, the results confirm that developers’ decisions are explained to a large extent by contemporaneous and past conditions in both London submarkets. The corollary of this finding is that developers may be able to generate excess profits by exploiting market inefficiencies but this may be hindered in practice by the long periods necessary for planning and construction of the asset. More generally, the results of this study suggest that real estate cycles are largely generated endogenously rather than being the result of unexpected exogenous shocks.

The role of conventional generation in managing variability

As electricity systems incorporate increasing levels of variable renewable generation, conventional plant will be required to operate more flexibly, with potential impacts for economic viability and reliability. Northern Ireland is pursuing an ambitious target of 40% of electricity to be supplied from renewable sources by 2020. The dominant source of this energy is anticipated to come from inherently variable wind power, one of the most mature renewable technologies. Conventional thermal generators will have a significant role to play in maintaining security of supply. However, running conventional generation more flexibly in order to cater for a wind led regime can reduce its efficiency, as well as shortening its lifespan and increasing O&M costs. This paper examines the impacts of variable operation on existing fossil fuel based generators, with a particular focus on Northern Ireland. Access to plant operators and industry experts has provided insight not currently evident in the energy literature. Characteristics of plant operation and the market framework are identified that present significant challenges in moving to the proposed levels of wind penetration. Opportunities for increasing flexible operation are proposed and future research needs identified.

Characteristics of high-resolution versions of the Met Office unified model for forecasting convection over the United Kingdom

With many operational centers moving toward order 1-km-gridlength models for routine weather forecasting, this paper presents a systematic investigation of the properties of high-resolution versions of the Met Office Unified Model for short-range forecasting of convective rainfall events. The authors describe a suite of configurations of the Met Office Unified Model running with grid lengths of 12, 4, and 1 km and analyze results from these models for a number of convective cases from the summers of 2003, 2004, and 2005. The analysis includes subjective evaluation of the rainfall fields and comparisons of rainfall amounts, initiation, cell statistics, and a scale-selective verification technique. It is shown that the 4- and 1-km-gridlength models often give more realistic-looking precipitation fields because convection is represented explicitly rather than parameterized. However, the 4-km model representation suffers from large convective cells and delayed initiation because the grid length is too long to correctly reproduce the convection explicitly. These problems are not as evident in the 1-km model, although it does suffer from too numerous small cells in some situations. Both the 4- and 1-km models suffer from poor representation at the start of the forecast in the period when the high-resolution detail is spinning up from the lower-resolution (12 km) starting data used. A scale-selective precipitation verification technique implies that for later times in the forecasts (after the spinup period) the 1-km model performs better than the 12- and 4-km models for lower rainfall thresholds. For higher thresholds the 4-km model scores almost as well as the 1-km model, and both do better than the 12-km model.

Microstructure of the Euro-area government bond market

This chapter highlights similarities and differences of equity and fixed- income markets and provides an overview of the characteristics of European government bond market trading and liquidity. Most existing studies focus on the U.S. market. This chapter presents the institutional details of the MTS market, which is the largest European electronic platform for trading government, quasi-government, asset- backed, and corporate fixed- income securities. It reviews the main features of high- frequency fixed- income data and the methods for measuring market liquidity. Finally, the chapter shows how liquidity differs across European countries, how liquidity varies with the structure of the market, and how liquidity has changed during the recent liquidity and sovereign crises.

Analysis and modeling of active occupancy of the residential sector in Spain: an indicator of residential electricity consumption

The growing energy consumption in the residential sector represents about 30% of global demand. This calls for Demand Side Management solutions propelling change in behaviors of end consumers, with the aim to reduce overall consumption as well as shift it to periods in which demand is lower and where the cost of generating energy is lower. Demand Side Management solutions require detailed knowledge about the patterns of energy consumption. The profile of electricity demand in the residential sector is highly correlated with the time of active occupancy of the dwellings; therefore in this study the occupancy patterns in Spanish properties was determined using the 2009–2010 Time Use Survey (TUS), conducted by the National Statistical Institute of Spain. The survey identifies three peaks in active occupancy, which coincide with morning, noon and evening. This information has been used to input into a stochastic model which generates active occupancy profiles of dwellings, with the aim to simulate domestic electricity consumption. TUS data were also used to identify which appliance-related activities could be considered for Demand Side Management solutions during the three peaks of occupancy.

The cyclical relations between traded property stock prices and aggregate time-series

This paper examines the cyclical regularities of macroeconomic, financial and property market aggregates in relation to the property stock price cycle in the UK. The Hodrick Prescott filter is employed to fit a long-term trend to the raw data, and to derive the short-term cycles of each series. It is found that the cycles of consumer expenditure, total consumption per capita, the dividend yield and the long-term bond yield are moderately correlated, and mainly coincident, with the property price cycle. There is also evidence that the nominal and real Treasury Bill rates and the interest rate spread lead this cycle by one or two quarters, and therefore that these series can be considered leading indicators of property stock prices. This study recommends that macroeconomic and financial variables can provide useful information to explain and potentially to forecast movements of property-backed stock returns in the UK.

Tests of non-linearity using LIFFE futures transactions price data

This paper presents and implements a number of tests for non-linear dependence and a test for chaos using transactions prices on three LIFFE futures contracts: the Short Sterling interest rate contract, the Long Gilt government bond contract, and the FTSE 100 stock index futures contract. While previous studies of high frequency futures market data use only those transactions which involve a price change, we use all of the transaction prices on these contracts whether they involve a price change or not. Our results indicate irrefutable evidence of non-linearity in two of the three contracts, although we find no evidence of a chaotic process in any of the series. We are also able to provide some indications of the effect of the duration of the trading day on the degree of non-linearity of the underlying contract. The trading day for the Long Gilt contract was extended in August 1994, and prior to this date there is no evidence of any structure in the return series. However, after the extension of the trading day we do find evidence of a non-linear return structure.

A review of time use models of residential electricity demand

Residential electricity demand in most European countries accounts for a major proportion of overall electricity consumption. The timing of residential electricity demand has significant impacts on carbon emissions and system costs. This paper reviews the data and methods used in time use studies in the context of residential electricity demand modelling. It highlights key issues which are likely to become more topical for research on the timing of electricity demand following the roll-out of smart metres.