On the impact of disproportional samples in credit scoring models: An application to a Brazilian bank data

Statistical methods have been widely employed to assess the capabilities of credit scoring classification models in order to reduce the risk of wrong decisions when granting credit facilities to clients. The predictive quality of a classification model can be evaluated based on measures such as sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, accuracy, correlation coefficients and information theoretical measures, such as relative entropy and mutual information. In this paper we analyze the performance of a naive logistic regression model (Hosmer & Lemeshow, 1989) and a logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection model (Cramer, 2004) applied to simulated data. Also, as a case study, the methodology is illustrated on a data set extracted from a Brazilian bank portfolio. Our simulation results so far revealed that there is no statistically significant difference in terms of predictive capacity between the naive logistic regression models and the logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection models. However, there is strong difference between the distributions of the estimated default probabilities from these two statistical modeling techniques, with the naive logistic regression models always underestimating such probabilities, particularly in the presence of balanced samples. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Continuous geochemical monitoring by mass-spectometer in the Campi Flegrei geothermal area. An application at Pisciarelli-Solfatara (diffuse and fumarolic gases) and at the mud gases during drilling of the CFDDP pilot hole

During this work has been developed an innovative methodology for continuous and in situ gas monitoring (24/24 h) of fumarolic and soil diffusive emissions applied to the geothermal and volcanic area of Pisciarelli near Agnano inside the Campi Flegrei caldera (CFc). In literature there are only scattered and in discrete data of the geochemical gas composition of fumarole at Campi Flegrei; it is only since the early ’80 that exist a systematic record of fumaroles with discrete sampling at Solfatara (Bocca Grande and Bocca Nuova fumaroles) and since 1999, even at the degassing areas of Pisciarelli. This type of sampling has resulted in a time series of geochemical analysis with discontinuous periods of time set (in average 2-3 measurements per month) completely inadequate for the purposes of Civil Defence in such high volcanic risk and densely populated areas. For this purpose, and to remedy this lack of data, during this study was introduced a new methodology of continuous and in situ sampling able to continuously detect data related and from its soil diffusive degassing. Due to its high sampling density (about one measurement per minute therefore producing 1440 data daily) and numerous species detected (CO2, Ar, 36Ar, CH4, He, H2S, N2, O2) allowing a good statistic record and the reconstruction of the gas composition evolution of the investigated area. This methodology is based on continuous sampling of fumaroles gases and soil degassing using an extraction line, which after undergoing a series of condensation processes of the water vapour content - better described hereinafter - is analyzed through using a quadrupole mass spectrometer

Validity of an automatic measure protocol in distal femur for allograft selection from a three-dimensional virtual bone bank system

Osteoarticular allograft is one possible treatment in wide surgical resections with large defects. Performing best osteoarticular allograft selection is of great relevance for optimal exploitation of the bone databank, good surgery outcome and patient’s recovery. Current approaches are, however, very time consuming hindering these points in practice. We present a validation study of a software able to perform automatic bone measurements used to automatically assess the distal femur sizes across a databank. 170 distal femur surfaces were reconstructed from CT data and measured manually using a size measure protocol taking into account the transepicondyler distance (A), anterior-posterior distance in medial condyle (B) and anterior-posterior distance in lateral condyle (C). Intra- and inter-observer studies were conducted and regarded as ground truth measurements. Manual and automatic measures were compared. For the automatic measurements, the correlation coefficients between observer one and automatic method, were of 0.99 for A measure and 0.96 for B and C measures. The average time needed to perform the measurements was of 16 h for both manual measurements, and of 3 min for the automatic method. Results demonstrate the high reliability and, most importantly, high repeatability of the proposed approach, and considerable speed-up on the planning.

Use of endovascular therapy for peripheral arterial lesions: an analysis of the national trauma data bank from 2007 to 2009

An endovascular approach is increasingly used for the treatment of peripheral arterial trauma (PAT), but evidence supporting this approach is lacking. The objective of our study was to assess outcomes for endovascular repair (ER) versus operative repair (OR) in PAT.

Report of Investigation on the Physical Characteristics of the Oil Sands from the Cut Bank Field, Montana

The purpose of this research was to study the physical characteristics, mainly, porosity and permeability of the oil sands from the Cut Bank field, Glacier County, Montana. In so doing, a better understanding of the relation­ship of these physical characteristics to one another and to the pool itself could be obtained.

Permeability and Porosity Studies of the Cut Bank Oil Sand

In studying the Cut Bank field and its numerous wells, it is found that dry holes are surrounded by producing wells, and also that the field as a whole is very irregular; water, oil, and gas zones in many cases following no definite pattern. In some instances, this phenomenon may be due to the lensing and thinning of the producing sands, but it is evident that this is not the only factor. There­fore, the controlling factors must be porosity and permeability.

An Attempt to Increase the Permeability and Porosity of the Cut Bank Oil Sand By Treatment with Various Reagents

The purpose of this investigation was to attempt to find some means of increasing the effective porosity and permeabil­ity of the producing sands of the Cut Bank Oil Field, with the hope that thereby the ultimate recovery of petroleum from this field may be increased. Although the percentage increase in production thus effected would undoubtedly be small, it would represent a substantial volume of petroleum in view of the great quantity of oil and gas present in this field.