Exact and approximate Bayesian inference for low count time series models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper we present a new simulation methodology in order to obtain exact or approximate Bayesian inference for models for low-valued count time series data that have computationally demanding likelihood functions. The algorithm fits within the framework of particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) methods. The particle filter requires only model simulations and, in this regard, our approach has connections with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). However, an advantage of using the PMCMC approach in this setting is that simulated data can be matched with data observed one-at-a-time, rather than attempting to match on the full dataset simultaneously or on a low-dimensional non-sufficient summary statistic, which is common practice in ABC. For low-valued count time series data we find that it is often computationally feasible to match simulated data with observed data exactly. Our particle filter maintains $N$ particles by repeating the simulation until $N+1$ exact matches are obtained. Our algorithm creates an unbiased estimate of the likelihood, resulting in exact posterior inferences when included in an MCMC algorithm. In cases where exact matching is computationally prohibitive, a tolerance is introduced as per ABC. A novel aspect of our approach is that we introduce auxiliary variables into our particle filter so that partially observed and/or non-Markovian models can be accommodated. We demonstrate that Bayesian model choice problems can be easily handled in this framework.

Steps toward the validation of the Trendelenburg Test : the effect of experimentally reduced hip abductor muscle function on frontal plane mechanics

Objective: To investigate the validity of the Trendelenburg test (TT) using an ultrasound-guided nerve block (UNB) of the superior gluteal nerve and determine whether the reduction in hip abductor muscle (HABD) strength would result in the theorized mechanical compensatory strategies measured during the TT. Design: Quasi-experimental. Setting: Hospital. Participants: Convenience sample of 9 healthy men. Only participants with no current or previous injury to the lumbar spine, pelvis, or lower extremities, and no previous surgeries were included. Interventions: Ultrasound-guided nerve block. Main Outcome Measures: Hip abductor muscle strength (percent body weight [%BW]), contralateral pelvic drop (cPD), change in contralateral pelvic drop (Delta cPD), ipsilateral hip adduction, and ipsilateral trunk sway (TRUNK) measured in degrees. Results: The median age and weight of the participants were 31 years (interquartile range [IQR], 22-32 years) and 73 kg (IQR, 67-81 kg), respectively. An average 52% reduction of HABD strength (z = 2.36, P = 0.02) resulted after the UNB. No differences were found in cPD or Delta cPD (z = 0.01, P = 0.99, z = 20.67, P = 0.49, respectively). Individual changes in biomechanics showed no consistency between participants and nonsystematic changes across the group. One participant demonstrated the mechanical compensations described by Trendelenburg. Conclusions: The TT should not be used as a screening measure for HABD strength in populations demonstrating strength greater than 30% BW but should be reserved for use with populations with marked HABD weakness. Clinical Relevance: This study presents data regarding a critical level of HABD strength required to support the pelvis during the TT.

Steps towards the validation of the Trendelenburg test : The effect of experimentally reduced hip abductor muscle function on frontal plane mechanics

Introduction: The Trendelenburg Test (TT) is used to assess the functional strength of the hip abductor muscles (HABD), their ability to control frontal plane motion of the pelvis, and the ability of the lumbopelvic complex to transfer load into single leg stance. Rationale: Although a standard method to perform the test has been described for use within clinical populations, no study has directly investigated Trendelenburg’s hypotheses. Purpose: To investigate the validity of the TT using an ultrasound guided nerve block (UNB) of the superior gluteal nerve and determine whether the reduction in HABD strength would result in the theorized mechanical compensatory strategies measured during the TT. Methods: Quasi-experimental design using a convenience sample of nine healthy males. Only subjects with no current or previous injury to the lumbar spine, pelvis, or lower extremities, and no previous surgeries were included. Force dynamometry was used to evaluation HABD strength (%BW). 2D mechanics were used to evaluate contralateral pelvic drop (cMPD), change in contralateral pelvic drop (∆cMPD), ipsilateral hip adduction (iHADD) and ipsilateral trunk sway (TRUNK) measured in degrees (°). All measures were collected prior to and following a UNB on the superior gluteal nerve performed by an interventional radiologist. Results: Subjects’ age was median 31yrs (IQR:22-32yrs); and weight was median 73kg (IQR:67-81kg). An average 52% reduction of HABD strength (z=2.36,p=0.02) resulted following the UNB. No differences were found in cMPD or ∆cMPD (z=0.01,p= 0.99, z=-0.67,p=0.49). Individual changes in biomechanics show no consistency between subjects and non-systematic changes across the group. One subject demonstrated the mechanical compensations described by Trendelenburg. Discussion: The TT should not be used as screening measure for HABD strength in populations demonstrating strength greater than 30%BW but reserved for use with populations with marked HABD weakness. Importance: This study presents data regarding a critical level of HABD strength required to support the pelvis during the TT.

Non-contact ACL injuries : association with clegg soil impact test values for sports fields, soil moisture and prevailing weather

Introduction: There is a recognised relationship between dry weather conditions and increased risk of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury. Previous studies have identified 28 day evaporation as an important weather-based predictor of non-contact ACL injuries in professional Australian Football League matches. The mechanism of non-contact injury to the ACL is believed to increased traction and impact forces between footwear and playing surface. Ground hardness and the amount and quality of grass are factors that would most likely influence this and are inturn, related to the soil moisture content and prevailing weather conditions. This paper explores the relationship between soil moisture content, preceding weather conditions and the Clegg Soil Impact Test (CSIT) which is an internationally recognised standard measure of ground hardness for sports fields. Methodology: The 2.25 kg Clegg Soil Impact Test and a pair of 12 cm soil moisture probes were used to measure ground hardness and percentage moisture content. Five football fields were surveyed at 13 prescribed sites just before seven football matches from October 2008 to January 2009 (an FC Women’s WLeague team). Weather conditions recorded at the nearest weather station were obtained from the Bureau of Meteorology website and total rainfall less evaporation was calculated for 7 and 28 days prior to each match. All non-contact injuries occurring during match play and their location on the field were recorded. Results/conclusions: Ground hardness varied between CSIT 5 and 17 (x10G) (8 is considered a good value for sports fields). Variations within fields were typically greatest in the centre and goal areas. Soil moisture ranged from 3 to 40% with some fields requiring twice the moisture content of others to maintain similar CSIT values. There was a non-linear, negative relationship for ground hardness versus moisture content and a linear relationship with weather (R2, of 0.30 and 0.34, respectively). Three non-contact ACL injuries occurred during the season. Two of these were associated with hard and variable ground conditions.

A performance test of query operation on encrypted database

Database security techniques are available widely. Among those techniques, the encryption method is a well-certified and established technology for protecting sensitive data. However, once encrypted, the data can no longer be easily queried. The performance of the database depends on how to encrypt the sensitive data, and an approach for searching and retrieval efficiencies that are implemented. In this paper we analyze the database queries and the data properties and propose a suitable mechanism to query the encrypted database. We proposed and analyzed the new database encryption algorithm using the Bloom Filter with the bucket index method. Finally, we demonstrated the superiority of the proposed algorithm through several experiments that should be useful for database encryption related research and application activities.

Are consumers fooled by discounts? An experimental test in a consumer search environment

In this article, we investigate experimentally whether people search optimally and how price promotions influence search behaviour. We implement a sequential search task with exogenous price dispersion in a baseline treatment and introduce discounts in two experimental treatments. We find that search behaviour is roughly consistent with optimal search but also observe some discount biases. If subjects do not know in advance where discounts are offered, the purchase probability is increased by 19 percentage points in shops with discounts, even after controlling for the benefit of the discount and for risk preferences. If consumers know in advance where discounts are given, then the bias is only weakly significant and much smaller (7 percentage points).

A test of three interventions to promote people's communication of their consent for organ donation

People's decision to join an organ donor registry and have a discussion with family about their organ donation preference increases the likelihood that their family will consent to donation of their organs. This study explores the effectiveness of three interventions compared to a control condition to increase individual consent (registering and discussing donation wishes) for organ donation. Australian residents who had not previously communicated their consent (N = 177) were randomly allocated to complete an online survey representing either an extended theory of planned behaviour motivational intervention (strengthening intention via attitudes, subjective norms, control, moral norms and identity), a volitional intervention using constructs from the health action process approach (strengthening the translation of intentions into action using action plans and coping plans), a combined motivational and volitional intervention, or a control condition. Registering, but not discussing, intentions increased in the motivational compared to non-motivational conditions. For joining the organ donor registry, the combination of strengthening intentions (motivational) as well as forming specific action (when, where, how, and with whom for discussing) and coping (listing potential obstacles and how these may be overcome) plans (volitional) resulted in significantly higher rates of self-reported behaviour. There was no evidence for this effect on discussion.

Investigation of Gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) A receptors genes and migraine susceptibility

Background Migraine is a neurological disorder characterized by recurrent attacks of severe headache, affecting around 12% of Caucasian populations. It is well known that migraine has a strong genetic component, although the number and type of genes involved is still unclear. Prior linkage studies have reported mapping of a migraine gene to chromosome Xq 24–28, a region containing a cluster of genes for GABA A receptors (GABRE, GABRA3, GABRQ), which are potential candidate genes for migraine. The GABA neurotransmitter has been implicated in migraine pathophysiology previously; however its exact role has not yet been established, although GABA receptors agonists have been the target of therapeutic developments. The aim of the present research is to investigate the role of the potential candidate genes reported on chromosome Xq 24–28 region in migraine susceptibility. In this study, we have focused on the subunit GABA A receptors type ε (GABRE) and type θ (GABRQ) genes and their involvement in migraine. Methods We have performed an association analysis in a large population of case-controls (275 unrelated Caucasian migraineurs versus 275 controls) examining a set of 3 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the coding region (exons 3, 5 and 9) of the GABRE gene and also the I478F coding variant of the GABRQ gene. Results Our study did not show any association between the examined SNPs in our test population (P > 0.05). Conclusion Although these particular GABA receptor genes did not show positive association, further studies are necessary to consider the role of other GABA receptor genes in migraine susceptibility.

A simple test method for profiled steel cladding systems under wind uplift

A new simple test method using small scale models has been developed for testing profiled steel cladding systems under wind uplift/suction forces. This simple method should replace the large scale test method using two-span claddings used at present. It can be used for roof or wall cladding systems fastened with screw fasteners at crests or valleys.

International corporate entrepreneurship among SMEs : a test of Stevenson's notion of entrepreneurial management

Geographical market expansion is included in various definitions of entrepreneurship as it entails the opening up of new markets (for example, Davidsson 2003). Expansion into new international markets and launch of new products in international markets are also consistent with definitions of entrepreneurship which center on the pursuit of opportunities {e.g.\Stevenson, 1983 #922;Gartner, 1993 #931}. Accordingly, the decision by managers of small, internationally active businesses to continue to internationalize can be viewed as an entrepreneurial act. In spite of the fact that both start-ups and existing firms can behave entrepreneurially by expanding into new international markets, the attention of entrepreneurship researchers interested in international activities has largely focused on international new ventures (INVs); that is, business organizations that internationalize from inception (Oviatt, and McDougall 1994; Oviatt, and McDougall 1997). Consequently, pursuit of international opportunities by established small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) lacks theoretical understanding and empirical investigation through an entrepreneurship lens. This paper contributes to the body of knowledge at the entrepreneurship-internationalization interface by testing whether Stevenson’s opportunity-based conceptualization of entrepreneurial management (Stevenson 1983; Stevenson and Gumpert 1985; Stevenson and Jarillo 1990) can explain the attainment of continued entrepreneurial outcomes by SMEs operating in foreign markets. We choose Stevenson’s conceptualization as it gauges firm-level characteristics that are theorized to facilitate the pursuit of entrepreneurial opportunities, which arguably is at the heart of SMEs’ continued venturing into international markets.

Evidence for allelic association of the dopamine β-hydroxylase gene (DBH) with susceptibility to typical migraine

Migraine is a debilitating neurological disorder characterized by recurrent attacks of severe headache. The disorder is highly prevalent, affecting approximately 12% of Caucasian populations. It is well known that migraine has a strong genetic component, although the type and number of genes involved is not yet clear. However, the calcium channel gene, CACNA1A, on chromosome 19 contains mutations responsible for familial hemiplegic migraine, a rare and severe subtype of migraine. There is also evidence to suggest that serotonin- and dopamine-related genes may be involved in the pathogenesis of migraine. This study employed a linkage and association approach to investigate neurotransmitter-related migraine candidate genes. Polymorphisms within the dopamine beta-hydroxylase (DBH) gene, serotonin transporter gene (SERT), and dopamine receptor gene (DRD2) were tested in 177 unrelated Caucasian migraineurs and 182 control individuals. In addition, an independent sample of 82 families affected with migraine was examined. Unrelated case-control association analysis of a DBH intragenic dinucleotide polymorphism indicated altered allelic distribution between migraine and control groups (L2=16.53, P=0.019). Furthermore, the transmission/disequilibrium test, which was implemented on the family data, also indicated distortion of allele transmission for the same DBH marker (L2=4.44, P=0.035). Together, these results provide evidence for allelic association of the DBH gene with typical migraine susceptibility (Fisher's combined P value=0.006) and indicate that further research into the role of the DBH gene in the etiology of migraine is warranted.

Board age and gender diversity : a test of competing linear and curvilinear predictions

The inconsistent findings of past board diversity research demand a test of competing linear and curvilinear diversity–performance predictions. This research focuses on board age and gender diversity, and presents a positive linear prediction based on resource dependence theory, a negative linear prediction based on social identity theory, and an inverted U-shaped curvilinear prediction based on the integration of resource dependence theory with social identity theory. The predictions were tested using archival data on 288 large organizations listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, with a 1-year time lag between diversity (age and gender) and performance (employee productivity and return on assets). The results indicate a positive linear relationship between gender diversity and employee productivity, a negative linear relationship between age diversity and return on assets, and an inverted U-shaped curvilinear relationship between age diversity and return on assets. The findings provide additional evidence on the business case for board gender diversity and refine the business case for board age diversity.

Review of current test methods for screwed connections

The pull-through/local dimpling failure strength of screwed connections is very important in the design of profiled steel cladding systems to help them resist storms and hurricanes. The current American and European provisions recommend four different test methods for the screwed connections in tension, but the accuracy of these methods in determining the connection strength is not known. It is unlikely that the four test methods are equivalent in all cases and thus it is necessary to reduce the number of methods recommended. This paper presents a review of these test methods based on some laboratory tests on crest- and valley-fixed claddings and then recommends alternative tests methods that reproduce the real behavior of the connections, including the bending and membrane deformations of the cladding around the screw fasteners and the tension load in the fastener.

The effect of varied test instructions on neuropsychological performance following mild traumatic brain injury : an investigation of ‘diagnosis threat’

Diagnosis threat is a psychosocial factor that has been proposed to contribute to poor outcomes following mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). This threat is thought to impair the cognitive test performance of individuals with mTBI because of negative injury stereotypes. University students (N= 45, 62.2% female) with a history of mTBI were randomly allocated to a diagnosis threat (DT, n=15), reduced threat (DT-reduced, n=15) or neutral (n=15) group. The reduced threat condition invoked a positive stereotype (i.e., that people with mTBI can perform well on cognitive tests). All participants were given neutral instructions before they completed baseline tests of: a) objective cognitive function across a number of domains; b) psychological symptoms; and, c) PCS symptoms, including self-reported cognitive and emotional difficulties. Participants then received either neutral, DT or DT-reduced instructions, before repeating the tests. Results were analyzed using separate mixed model ANOVAs; one for each dependent measure. The only significant result was for the 2 X 3 ANOVA on an objective test of attention/working memory, Digit Span, p<.05, such that the DT-reduced group performed better than the other groups, which were not different from each other. Although not consistent with predictions or earlier DT studies, the absence of group differences on most tests fits with several recent DT findings. The results of this study suggest that it is timely to reconsider the role of DT as a unique contributor to poor mTBI outcome.