Consumption Decisions When People Value Conformity

In this paper we assume that for some commodities individuals may wish to adjust their levels of consumption from their normal Marshallian levels so as to match the consumption levels of a group of other individuals, in order to signal that they conform to the consumption norms of that group. Unlike Veblen’s concept of conspicuous consumption this can mean that some individuals may reduce their consumption of the relevant commodities. We model this as a three-stage game in which individuals first decide whether or not they wish to adhere to a norm, then decide which norm they wish to adhere to, and finally decide their actual consumption. We present a number of examples of the resulting equilibria, and then discuss the potential policy implications of this model.

Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Dynamic Copulas

We study the asymmetric and dynamic dependence between financial assets and demonstrate, from the perspective of risk management, the economic significance of dynamic copula models. First, we construct stock and currency portfolios sorted on different characteristics (ex ante beta, coskewness, cokurtosis and order flows), and find substantial evidence of dynamic evolution between the high beta (respectively, coskewness, cokurtosis and order flow) portfolios and the low beta (coskewness, cokurtosis and order flow) portfolios. Second, using three different dependence measures, we show the presence of asymmetric dependence between these characteristic-sorted portfolios. Third, we use a dynamic copula framework based on Creal et al. (2013) and Patton (2012) to forecast the portfolio Value-at-Risk of long-short (high minus low) equity and FX portfolios. We use several widely used univariate and multivariate VaR models for the purpose of comparison. Backtesting our methodology, we find that the asymmetric dynamic copula models provide more accurate forecasts, in general, and, in particular, perform much better during the recent financial crises, indicating the economic significance of incorporating dynamic and asymmetric dependence in risk management.

Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregressive process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The Öltered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidenced for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices

We re-examine the dynamics of returns and dividend growth within the present-value framework of stock prices. We find that the finite sample order of integration of returns is approximately equal to the order of integration of the first-differenced price-dividend ratio. As such, the traditional return forecasting regressions based on the price-dividend ratio are invalid. Moreover, the nonstationary long memory behaviour of the price-dividend ratio induces antipersistence in returns. This suggests that expected returns should be modelled as an AFIRMA process and we show this improves the forecast ability of the present-value model in-sample and out-of-sample.

Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregression process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The filtered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidence for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Design and evaluation of a solid sampler for the monitoring of airborne 1,6-hexamethylene diisocyanate (HDI) and its prepolymers in 2-component spray painting

An active, solvent-free solid sampler was developed for the collection of 1,6-hexamethylene diisocyanate (HDI) aerosol and prepolymers. The sampler was made of a filter impregnated with 1-(2-methoxyphenyl)piperazine contained in a filter holder. Interferences with HDI were observed when a set of cellulose acetate filters and a polystyrene filter holder were used; a glass fiber filter and polypropylene filter cassette gave better results. The applicability of the sampling and analytical procedure was validated with a test chamber, constructed for the dynamic generation of HDI aerosol and prepolymers in commercial two-component spray paints (Desmodur(R) N75) used in car refinishing. The particle size distribution, temporal stability, and spatial uniformity of the simulated aerosol were established in order to test the sample. The monitoring of aerosol concentrations was conducted with the solid sampler paired to the reference impinger technique (impinger flasks contained 10 mL of 0.5 mg/mL 1-(2-methoxyphenyl)piperazine in toluene) under a controlled atmosphere in the test chamber. Analyses of derivatized HDI and prepolymers were carried out by using high-performance liquid chromatography and ultraviolet detection. The correlation between the solvent-free and the impinger techniques appeared fairly good (Y = 0.979X - 0.161; R = 0.978), when the tests were conducted in the range of 0.1 to 10 times the threshold limit value (TLV) for HDI monomer and up to 60-mu-g/m3 (3 U.K. TLVs) for total -N = C = O groups.

Carences en vitamine B12 et fer: du diagnostic au suivi [Vitamin B12 and iron deficiencies: from diagnostic to follow-up].

Vitamin B12 and iron deficiencies are common problems in consultations of general internal medicine. They cause different symptoms that can be non-specific. This article makes it possible, from a clinical frame of reference, to answer the following questions: What value of vitamin B12 should we consider a "deficiency", and what is the role of methylmalonate? What is the role of vitamin B12 oral supplements? How should we interpret values of ferritine? How should iron deficiency be investigated? What is the place of intravenous iron administration?

Purification and activity standardisation of a (166m)Ho solution.

As part of a project to use the long-lived (T(1/2)=1200a) (166m)Ho as reference source in its reference ionisation chamber, IRA standardised a commercially acquired solution of this nuclide using the 4pibeta-gamma coincidence and 4pigamma (NaI) methods. The (166m)Ho solution supplied by Isotope Product Laboratories was measured to have about 5% Europium impurities (3% (154)Eu, 0.94% (152)Eu and 0.9% (155)Eu). Holmium had therefore to be separated from europium, and this was carried out by means of ion-exchange chromatography. The holmium fractions were collected without europium contamination: 162h long HPGe gamma measurements indicated no europium impurity (detection limits of 0.01% for (152)Eu and (154)Eu, and 0.03% for (155)Eu). The primary measurement of the purified (166m)Ho solution with the 4pi (PC) beta-gamma coincidence technique was carried out at three gamma energy settings: a window around the 184.4keV peak and gamma thresholds at 121.8 and 637.3keV. The results show very good self-consistency, and the activity concentration of the solution was evaluated to be 45.640+/-0.098kBq/g (0.21% with k=1). The activity concentration of this solution was also measured by integral counting with a well-type 5''x5'' NaI(Tl) detector and efficiencies computed by Monte Carlo simulations using the GEANT code. These measurements were mutually consistent, while the resulting weighted average of the 4pi NaI(Tl) method was found to agree within 0.15% with the result of the 4pibeta-gamma coincidence technique. An ampoule of this solution and the measured value of the concentration were submitted to the BIPM as a contribution to the Système International de Référence.

How to set up and apply reference levels in fluoroscopy at a national level.

A nationwide survey was launched to investigate the use of fluoroscopy and establish national reference levels (RL) for dose-intensive procedures. The 2-year investigation covered five radiology and nine cardiology departments in public hospitals and private clinics, and focused on 12 examination types: 6 diagnostic and 6 interventional. A total of 1,000 examinations was registered. Information including the fluoroscopy time (T), the number of frames (N) and the dose-area product (DAP) was provided. The data set was used to establish the distributions of T, N and the DAP and the associated RL values. The examinations were pooled to improve the statistics. A wide variation in dose and image quality in fixed geometry was observed. As an example, the skin dose rate for abdominal examinations varied in the range of 10 to 45 mGy/min for comparable image quality. A wide variability was found for several types of examinations, mainly complex ones. DAP RLs of 210, 125, 80, 240, 440 and 110 Gy cm2 were established for lower limb and iliac angiography, cerebral angiography, coronary angiography, biliary drainage and stenting, cerebral embolization and PTCA, respectively. The RL values established are compared to the data published in the literature.

Diffusion-weighted MR imaging of the spine at 3-T: feasibility, optimization of b-value and utility to differentiate benign from pathological vertebral compression fractures

Purpose: To evaluate the feasibility, determine the optimal b-value, and assess the utility of 3-T diffusion-weighted MR imaging (DWI) of the spine in differentiating benign from pathologic vertebral compression fractures.Methods and Materials: Twenty patients with 38 vertebral compression fractures (24 benign, 14 pathologic) and 20 controls (total: 23 men, 17 women, mean age 56.2years) were included from December 2010 to May 2011 in this IRB-approved prospective study. MR imaging of the spine was performed on a 3-T unit with T1-w, fat-suppressed T2-w, gadolinium-enhanced fat-suppressed T1-w and zoomed-EPI (2D RF excitation pulse combined with reduced field-of-view single-shot echo-planar readout) diffusion-w (b-values: 0, 300, 500 and 700s/mm2) sequences. Two radiologists independently assessed zoomed-EPI image quality in random order using a 4-point scale: 1=excellent to 4=poor. They subsequently measured apparent diffusion coefficients (ADCs) in normal vertebral bodies and compression fractures, in consensus.Results: Lower b-values correlated with better image quality scores, with significant differences between b=300 (mean±SD=2.6±0.8), b=500 (3.0±0.7) and b=700 (3.6±0.6) (all p<0.001). Mean ADCs of normal vertebral bodies (n=162) were 0.23, 0.17 and 0.11×10-3mm2/s with b=300, 500 and 700s/mm2, respectively. In contrast, mean ADCs were 0.89, 0.70 and 0.59×10-3mm2/s for benign vertebral compression fractures and 0.79, 0.66 and 0.51×10-3mm2/s for pathologic fractures with b=300, 500 and 700s/mm2, respectively. No significant difference was found between ADCs of benign and pathologic fractures.Conclusion: 3-T DWI of the spine is feasible and lower b-values (300s/mm2) are recommended. However, our preliminary results show no advantage of DWI in differentiating benign from pathologic vertebral compression fractures.

The impact of iron supplementation efficiency in female blood donors with a decreased ferritin level and no anaemia. Rationale and design of a randomised controlled trial: a study protocol.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: There is no recommendation to screen ferritin level in blood donors, even though several studies have noted the high prevalence of iron deficiency after blood donation, particularly among menstruating females. Furthermore, some clinical trials have shown that non-anaemic women with unexplained fatigue may benefit from iron supplementation. Our objective is to determine the clinical effect of iron supplementation on fatigue in female blood donors without anaemia, but with a mean serum ferritin </= 30 ng/ml. METHODS/DESIGN: In a double blind randomised controlled trial, we will measure blood count and ferritin level of women under age 50 yr, who donate blood to the University Hospital of Lausanne Blood Transfusion Department, at the time of the donation and after 1 week. One hundred and forty donors with a ferritin level </= 30 ng/ml and haemoglobin level >/= 120 g/l (non-anaemic) a week after the donation will be included in the study and randomised. A one-month course of oral ferrous sulphate (80 mg/day of elemental iron) will be introduced vs. placebo. Self-reported fatigue will be measured using a visual analogue scale. Secondary outcomes are: score of fatigue (Fatigue Severity Scale), maximal aerobic power (Chester Step Test), quality of life (SF-12), and mood disorders (Prime-MD). Haemoglobin and ferritin concentration will be monitored before and after the intervention. DISCUSSION: Iron deficiency is a potential problem for all blood donors, especially menstruating women. To our knowledge, no other intervention study has yet evaluated the impact of iron supplementation on subjective symptoms after a blood donation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT00689793.

Endogenous steroid profiling in the athlete biological passport.

The Athlete Biological Passport (ABP) is an individual electronic document that collects data regarding a specific athlete that is useful in differentiating between natural physiologic variations of selected biomarkers and deviations caused by artificial manipulations. A subsidiary of the endocrine module of the ABP, that which here is called Athlete Steroidal Passport (ASP), collects data on markers of an altered metabolism of endogenous steroidal hormones measured in urine samples. The ASP aims to identify not only doping with anabolic-androgenic steroids, but also most indirect steroid doping strategies such as doping with estrogen receptor antagonists and aromatase inhibitors. Development of specific markers of steroid doping, use of the athlete's previous measurements to define individual limits, with the athlete becoming his or her own reference, the inclusion of heterogeneous factors such as the UDPglucuronosyltransferase B17 genotype of the athlete, the knowledge of potentially confounding effects such as heavy alcohol consumption, the development of an external quality control system to control analytical uncertainty, and finally the use of Bayesian inferential methods to evaluate the value of indirect evidence have made the ASP a valuable alternative to deter steroid doping in elite sports. The ASP can be used to target athletes for gas chromatography/combustion/ isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC/C/IRMS) testing, to withdraw temporarily the athlete from competing when an abnormality has been detected, and ultimately to lead to an antidoping infraction if that abnormality cannot be explained by a medical condition. Although the ASP has been developed primarily to ensure fairness in elite sports, its application in endocrinology for clinical purposes is straightforward in an evidence-based medicine paradigm.

The value of ultrasonography in assessment of portal hypertension in hepatosplenic schistosomiasis

Ultrasonography can reveal most of the manifestations of portal hypertension complicating hepatosplenic, schistosomiasis. However, direct demonstration of gastroesophageal varices by ultrasonography is still very difficult. An attempt was done to correlate sonographic features of portal hypertension with the degree of fibrosis to screen patients having varices and predicting their chance of bleeding. The results obtained were found to be consistent with the esophagogastric endoscopy and with history of hematemesis. Four parameters were used, size of spleen, degree of periportal fibrosis, presence of collaterals and portal vein diameter. A pilot field survey was also done adopting the same principle.

Context-dependent interpretation of the prognostic value of BRAF and KRAS mutations in colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The mutation status of the BRAF and KRAS genes has been proposed as prognostic biomarker in colorectal cancer. Of them, only the BRAF V600E mutation has been validated independently as prognostic for overall survival and survival after relapse, while the prognostic value of KRAS mutation is still unclear. We investigated the prognostic value of BRAF and KRAS mutations in various contexts defined by stratifications of the patient population. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of patients with stage II and III colorectal cancer from the PETACC-3 clinical trial (N = 1,423), by assessing the prognostic value of the BRAF and KRAS mutations in subpopulations defined by all possible combinations of the following clinico-pathological variables: T stage, N stage, tumor site, tumor grade and microsatellite instability status. In each such subpopulation, the prognostic value was assessed by log rank test for three endpoints: overall survival, relapse-free survival, and survival after relapse. The significance level was set to 0.01 for Bonferroni-adjusted p-values, and a second threshold for a trend towards statistical significance was set at 0.05 for unadjusted p-values. The significance of the interactions was tested by Wald test, with significance level of 0.05. RESULTS: In stage II-III colorectal cancer, BRAF mutation was confirmed a marker of poor survival only in subpopulations involving microsatellite stable and left-sided tumors, with higher effects than in the whole population. There was no evidence for prognostic value in microsatellite instable or right-sided tumor groups. We found that BRAF was also prognostic for relapse-free survival in some subpopulations. We found no evidence that KRAS mutations had prognostic value, although a trend was observed in some stratifications. We also show evidence of heterogeneity in survival of patients with BRAF V600E mutation. CONCLUSIONS: The BRAF mutation represents an additional risk factor only in some subpopulations of colorectal cancers, in others having limited prognostic value. However, in the subpopulations where it is prognostic, it represents a marker of much higher risk than previously considered. KRAS mutation status does not seem to represent a strong prognostic variable.

Fiscal Federalism at the Ballot Box : The Relevance of Expressive Voting

This paper explores the impact of citizens' motivation to vote on the pattern of fiscal federalism. If the only concern of instrumental citizens was outcome they would have little incentive to vote because the probability that a single vote might change an electoral outcome is usually minuscule. If voters turn out in large numbers to derive intrinsic value from action, how will these voters choose when considering the role local jurisdictions should play? The first section of the paper assesses the weight that expressive voters attach to an instrumental evaluation of alternative outcomes. Predictions are tested with reference to case study analysis of the way Swiss voters assessed the role their local jurisdiction should play. The relevance of this analysis is also assessed with reference to the choice that voters express when considering other local issues. Textbook analysis of fiscal federalism is premised on the assumption that voters register choice just as 'consumers' reveal demand for services in a market, but how robust is this analogy.