The importance and accuracy of wind power forecasts

Due to the global crisis o f climate change many countries throughout the world are installing the renewable energy o f wind power into their electricity system. Wind energy causes complications when it is being integrated into the electricity system due its intermittent nature. Additionally winds intennittency can result in penalties being enforced due to the deregulation in the electricity market. Wind power forecasting can play a pivotal role to ease the integration o f wind energy. Wind power forecasts at 24 and 48 hours ahead of time are deemed the most crucial for determining an appropriate balance on the power system. In the electricity market wind power forecasts can also assist market participants in terms o f applying a suitable bidding strategy, unit commitment or have an impact on the value o f the spot price. For these reasons this study investigates the importance o f wind power forecasts for such players as the Transmission System Operators (TSOs) and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Investigation in this study is also conducted into the impacts that wind power forecasts can have on the electricity market in relation to bidding strategies, spot price and unit commitment by examining various case studies. The results o f these case studies portray a clear and insightful indication o f the significance o f availing from the information available from wind power forecasts. The accuracy o f a particular wind power forecast is also explored. Data from a wind power forecast is examined in the circumstances o f both 24 and 48 hour forecasts. The accuracy o f the wind power forecasts are displayed through a variety o f statistical approaches. The results o f the investigation can assist market participants taking part in the electricity pool and also provides a platform that can be applied to any forecast when attempting to define its accuracy. This study contributes significantly to the knowledge in the area o f wind power forecasts by explaining the importance o f wind power forecasting within the energy sector. It innovativeness and uniqueness lies in determining the accuracy o f a particular wind power forecast that was previously unknown.

Population dynamics of 0-group flounder (Platichthys flesus L.) in Galway Bay, West of Ireland and the value of flounder from shore angling tourism in Ireland

The economic value of flounder from shore angling around Ireland was assessed. Flounder catches from shore angling tournaments around Ireland were related to domestic and overseas shore angling expenditure in order to determine an economic value for the species. Temporal trends in flounder angling catches, and specimen (trophy) flounder reports were also investigated. Flounder was found to be the most caught shore angling species in competitions around Ireland constituting roughly one third of the shore angling competition catch although this did vary by area. The total value of flounder from shore angling tourism was estimated to be of the order of €8.4 million. No significant temporal trends in flounder angling catches and specimen reports were found. Thus there is no evidence from the current study for any decline in flounder stocks. The population dynamics of 0-group flounder during the early benthic stage was investigated at estuarine sites in Galway Bay, west of Ireland. Information was analysed from the March to June sampling period over five years (2002 to 2006). Spatial and temporal variations in settlement and population length structure were analysed between beach and river habitats and sites. Settlement of flounder began from late March to early May of each year, most commonly in April. Peak settlement was usually in April or early May. Settlement was recorded earlier than elsewhere, although most commonly was similar to the southern part of the UK and northern France. Settlement was generally later in tidal rivers than on sandy beaches. Abundance of 0-group flounder in Galway Bay did not exhibit significant inter -annual variability. 0-group flounder were observed in dense aggregations of up to 105 m'2, which were patchy in distribution. Highest densities of 0-group flounder were recorded in limnetic and oligohaline areas as compared with the lower densities in polyhaline and to a lesser extent mesohaline areas. Measurements to of salinity allowed the classification of beaches, and tidal river sections near the mouth, into a salinity based scheme for length comparisons. Beaches were classified as polyhaline,the lower section of rivers as mesohaline, and the middle and upper sections as oligohaline. Over the March to June sampling period 0-group flounder utilised different sections at different length ranges and were significantly larger in more upstream sections. During initial settlement in April, 0-group flounder of 8-10 mm (standard length, SL) were present in abundance on polyhaline sandy beaches. By about 10mm (SL), flounder were present in all polyhaline, mesohaline and (oligohaline) sections. 0-group flounder became absent or in insignificant numbers in polyhaline and mesohaline sections in a matter of weeks after first appearance. From April to June, 0-group flounder of 12-30mm (SL) were found in more upstream locations in the oligohaline sections. About one month (May or June) after initial settlement, 0-group flounder became absent from the oligohaline sections. Concurrently, flounder start to reappear in mesohaline and polyhaline areas at approximately 30mm (SL) in June. The results indicate 0-group flounder in the early benthic stage are associated with low salinity areas, but as they grow, this association diminishes. Results strongly suggest that migration of 0-group flounder between habitats takes place during the early benthic phase.

The production of vermicompost from dairy sludge and its value as a plant growth medium

Dairy sludge generated at Glanbia Ingredients Ltd., Kilkenny has up until now been landspread. This study investigated the feasibility of using earthworms to vermicompost the sludge as an alternative method of treatment. It was found that high levels of ammonia in the sludge led to earthworm fatality but that by manually aerating the sludge the ammonia could be volatilised or by adding zeolite the ammonia could be absorbed, thus solving the problem. In a medium scale trial, the earthworm species Dendrobaena veneta and Eisenia fetida dominated the polyculture. Earthworms grew and generated cocoons during vermicomposting. During vermicomposting no leachate was generated. Nutrient changes took place during vermicomposting. There were high levels of nitrate, increased calcium and sulphate in the vermicomposted dairy sludge. The amount of magnesium, potassium and chloride did not change, while phosphate was undetectable after vermicomposting. The levels of nitrate and phosphate were good indicators of the extent of vermicomposting. The vermicomposted dairy sludge provided improved growth and yields of radishes and barley compared to the dairy sludge and control. Compared to the vermicompost, the dairy sludge provided heavier ryegrass yields and more marigolds with larger flower diameters. Generally, it is the amount of phosphate in dairy sludge that dictates how much can be applied as a fertiliser on land. Vermicomposting reduced the amount of phosphate to an undetectable level but on the other hand created a problem of high nitrate levels. In a pot trial with grass grown in vermicompost the nitrate leached from the vermicompost. In field conditions the leaching of nitrate might occur and could cause an increased risk of contamination of groundwater and watercourses.

On boundary value problems for Willmore surfaces and Hartree-Fock theory of pseudo-relativistic atoms

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, kumulative Habil.-Schr., 2011

Prognostic Value of TIMI Score versus GRACE Score in ST-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Background: The TIMI Score for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) was created and validated specifically for this clinical scenario, while the GRACE score is generic to any type of acute coronary syndrome. Objective: Between TIMI and GRACE scores, identify the one of better prognostic performance in patients with STEMI. Methods: We included 152 individuals consecutively admitted for STEMI. The TIMI and GRACE scores were tested for their discriminatory ability (C-statistics) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow) in relation to hospital death. Results: The TIMI score showed equal distribution of patients in the ranges of low, intermediate and high risk (39 %, 27 % and 34 %, respectively), as opposed to the GRACE Score that showed predominant distribution at low risk (80 %, 13 % and 7%, respectively). Case-fatality was 11%. The C-statistics of the TIMI score was 0.87 (95%CI = 0.76 to 0.98), similar to GRACE (0.87, 95%CI = 0.75 to 0.99) - p = 0.71. The TIMI score showed satisfactory calibration represented by χ2 = 1.4 (p = 0.92), well above the calibration of the GRACE score, which showed χ2 = 14 (p = 0.08). This calibration is reflected in the expected incidence ranges for low, intermediate and high risk, according to the TIMI score (0 %, 4.9 % and 25 %, respectively), differently to GRACE (2.4%, 25% and 73%), which featured middle range incidence inappropriately. Conclusion: Although the scores show similar discriminatory capacity for hospital death, the TIMI score had better calibration than GRACE. These findings need to be validated populations of different risk profiles.

Value of the Qrs-T Angle in Predicting the Induction of Ventricular Tachyarrhythmias in Patients with Chagas Disease

Background:The QRS-T angle correlates with prognosis in patients with heart failure and coronary artery disease, reflected by an increase in mortality proportional to an increase in the difference between the axes of the QRS complex and T wave in the frontal plane. The value of this correlation in patients with Chagas heart disease is currently unknown.Objective:Determine the correlation of the QRS-T angle and the risk of induction of ventricular tachycardia / ventricular fibrillation (VT / VF) during electrophysiological study (EPS) in patients with Chagas disease.Methods:Case-control study at a tertiary center. Patients without induction of VT / VF on EPS were used as controls. The QRS-T angle was categorized as normal (0-105º), borderline (105-135º) or abnormal (135-180º). Differences between groups for continuous variables were analyzed with the t test or Mann-Whitney test, and for categorical variables with Fisher's exact test. P values < 0.05 were considered significant.Results:Of 116 patients undergoing EPS, 37.9% were excluded due to incomplete information / inactive records or due to the impossibility to correctly calculate the QRS-T angle (presence of left bundle branch block and atrial fibrillation). Of 72 patients included in the study, 31 induced VT / VF on EPS. Of these, the QRS-T angle was normal in 41.9%, borderline in 12.9% and abnormal in 45.2%. Among patients without induction of VT / VF on EPS, the QRS-T angle was normal in 63.4%, borderline in 14.6% and abnormal in 17.1% (p = 0.04). When compared with patients with normal QRS-T angle, those with abnormal angle had a fourfold higher risk of inducing ventricular tachycardia / ventricular fibrillation on EPS [odds ratio (OR) 4; confidence interval (CI) 1.298-12.325; p = 0.028]. After adjustment for other variables such as age, ejection fraction (EF) and QRS size, there was a trend for the abnormal QRS-T angle to identify patients with increased risk of inducing VT / VF during EPS (OR 3.95; CI 0.99-15.82; p = 0.052). The EF also emerged as a predictor of induction of VT / VF: for each point increase in EF, there was a 4% reduction in the rate of sustained ventricular arrhythmia on EPS.Conclusions:Changes in the QRS-T angle and decreases in EF were associated with an increased risk of induction of VT / VF on EPS.

Prognostic Value of Pulmonary Vascular Resistance by Magnetic Resonance in Systolic Heart Failure

Abstract Background: Pulmonary hypertension is associated with poor prognosis in heart failure. However, non-invasive diagnosis is still challenging in clinical practice. Objective: We sought to assess the prognostic utility of non-invasive estimation of pulmonary vascular resistances (PVR) by cardiovascular magnetic resonance to predict adverse cardiovascular outcomes in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Methods: Prospective registry of patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < 40% and recently admitted for decompensated heart failure during three years. PVRwere calculated based on right ventricular ejection fraction and average velocity of the pulmonary artery estimated during cardiac magnetic resonance. Readmission for heart failure and all-cause mortality were considered as adverse events at follow-up. Results: 105 patients (average LVEF 26.0 ±7.7%, ischemic etiology 43%) were included. Patients with adverse events at long-term follow-up had higher values of PVR (6.93 ± 1.9 vs. 4.6 ± 1.7estimated Wood Units (eWu), p < 0.001). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, PVR ≥ 5 eWu(cutoff value according to ROC curve) was independently associated with increased risk of adverse events at 9 months follow-up (HR2.98; 95% CI 1.12-7.88; p < 0.03). Conclusions: In patients with HFrEF, the presence of PVR ≥ 5.0 Wu is associated with significantly worse clinical outcome at follow-up. Non-invasive estimation of PVR by cardiac magnetic resonance might be useful for risk stratification in HFrEF, irrespective of etiology, presence of late gadolinium enhancement or LVEF.

Das Währungsrisiko für chinesische Export- und Importbetriebe und Absicherungsmöglichkeit

[s.c.]

Dominance of positivity of the Green's function associated to a perturbed polyharmonic dirichlet boundary value problem by pointwise estimates

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2015

Value creation : the recognition and use of scientific potential in entrepreneurship

Otto-von-Guericke-Universität Magdeburg, Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaft, Univ., Dissertation, 2015

Some mites of Yemen collected by the Medical Mission of the United States Naval Medical Research Unit No.3. / Charles D. Radford.

v.34:no.28(1954)

The dermal armor of the cyamodontoid placodonts (Reptilia, Sauropterygia) : morphology and systematic value / Olivier Rieppel --.

n.s. no.46(2002)

Hatching and larval export of the intertidal crab Neohelice granulata in Mar Chiquita coastal lagoon, Argentina

Synchronization in the events of the reproductive cycle in female Neohelice granulata Dana, 1851 were studied from samples taken weekly and biweekly from September to December 2006 in the Laguna Mar Chiquita. The timing and larval hatching and synchronicity were inferred from numbers of ovigerous females and observing the stages of embryonic development. Synchronization in larval hatching also was observed in females in experiments in dark for a period of 48 hours, at three different salinities (10, 23 and 33 ppm). In addition plankton sampling were performed in order to study larval exportation at the field and its link to the tidal and light/dark cycles. We found that ovigerous females of N. granulata have a marked synchronization in embryonic development which results in that most of berried females are close to hatching within a period of maximum tidal range (days). Within this period, there is a synchronization of hatching at a time scale of hours, governed by environmental conditions. The salinity range used in this study (10-32‰) did not affect hatching synchronicity neither time to hatch. Hatching was synchronized according to endogenous rhythms governed mainly by the tidal cycle and secondarily by the breadth of it. It is also conditioned by the light-dark cycle through an exogenous cycle, so that the hatchings would occur mostly at night high tides.