Data Mining Approach to support the Generation of Realistic Scenarios for Multi-Agent simulation of Electricity Markets

This paper presents the Realistic Scenarios Generator (RealScen), a tool that processes data from real electricity markets to generate realistic scenarios that enable the modeling of electricity market players’ characteristics and strategic behavior. The proposed tool provides significant advantages to the decision making process in an electricity market environment, especially when coupled with a multi-agent electricity markets simulator. The generation of realistic scenarios is performed using mechanisms for intelligent data analysis, which are based on artificial intelligence and data mining algorithms. These techniques allow the study of realistic scenarios, adapted to the existing markets, and improve the representation of market entities as software agents, enabling a detailed modeling of their profiles and strategies. This work contributes significantly to the understanding of the interactions between the entities acting in electricity markets by increasing the capability and realism of market simulations.

Exploring distributed computing tools through data mining tasks

Harnessing idle PCs CPU cycles, storage space and other resources of networked computers to collaborative are mainly fixated on for all major grid computing research projects. Most of the university computers labs are occupied with the high puissant desktop PC nowadays. It is plausible to notice that most of the time machines are lying idle or wasting their computing power without utilizing in felicitous ways. However, for intricate quandaries and for analyzing astronomically immense amounts of data, sizably voluminous computational resources are required. For such quandaries, one may run the analysis algorithms in very puissant and expensive computers, which reduces the number of users that can afford such data analysis tasks. Instead of utilizing single expensive machines, distributed computing systems, offers the possibility of utilizing a set of much less expensive machines to do the same task. BOINC and Condor projects have been prosperously utilized for solving authentic scientific research works around the world at a low cost. In this work the main goal is to explore both distributed computing to implement, Condor and BOINC, and utilize their potency to harness the ideal PCs resources for the academic researchers to utilize in their research work. In this thesis, Data mining tasks have been performed in implementation of several machine learning algorithms on the distributed computing environment.

Planning, operations and data handling of planetary science missions

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Física

A Methodology for Creating an Adapted Command Language for Driving an Intelligent Wheelchair

Intelligent wheelchairs (IW) are technologies that can increase the autonomy and independence of elderly people and patients suffering from some kind of disability. Nowadays the intelligent wheelchairs and the human-machine studies are very active research areas. This paper presents a methodology and a Data Analysis System (DAS) that provides an adapted command language to an user of the IW. This command language is a set of input sequences that can be created using inputs from an input device or a combination of the inputs available in a multimodal interface. The results show that there are statistical evidences to affirm that the mean of the evaluation of the DAS generated command language is higher than the mean of the evaluation of the command language recommended by the health specialist (p value = 0.002) with a sample of 11 cerebral palsy users. This work demonstrates that it is possible to adapt an intelligent wheelchair interface to the user even when the users present heterogeneous and severe physical constraints.

SHõWA: A Self-healing Framework for Web-based Applications

The complexity of systems is considered an obstacle to the progress of the IT industry. Autonomic computing is presented as the alternative to cope with the growing complexity. It is a holistic approach, in which the systems are able to configure, heal, optimize, and protect by themselves. Web-based applications are an example of systems where the complexity is high. The number of components, their interoperability, and workload variations are factors that may lead to performance failures or unavailability scenarios. The occurrence of these scenarios affects the revenue and reputation of businesses that rely on these types of applications. In this article, we present a self-healing framework for Web-based applications (SHõWA). SHõWA is composed by several modules, which monitor the application, analyze the data to detect and pinpoint anomalies, and execute recovery actions autonomously. The monitoring is done by a small aspect-oriented programming agent. This agent does not require changes to the application source code and includes adaptive and selective algorithms to regulate the level of monitoring. The anomalies are detected and pinpointed by means of statistical correlation. The data analysis detects changes in the server response time and analyzes if those changes are correlated with the workload or are due to a performance anomaly. In the presence of per- formance anomalies, the data analysis pinpoints the anomaly. Upon the pinpointing of anomalies, SHõWA executes a recovery procedure. We also present a study about the detection and localization of anomalies, the accuracy of the data analysis, and the performance impact induced by SHõWA. Two benchmarking applications, exercised through dynamic workloads, and different types of anomaly were considered in the study. The results reveal that (1) the capacity of SHõWA to detect and pinpoint anomalies while the number of end users affected is low; (2) SHõWA was able to detect anomalies without raising any false alarm; and (3) SHõWA does not induce a significant performance overhead (throughput was affected in less than 1%, and the response time delay was no more than 2 milliseconds).

O impacto do capital intelectual na performance

Para as organizações sobreviverem num novo ambiente competitivo, tiveram que deixar de procurar obter vantagens competitivas nos seus recursos tangíveis para as procurarem nos ativos intangíveis. Assim, várias investigações comprovam a necessidade de se dar a devida importância ao conceito de Capital Intelectual como fonte de criação de vantagens competitivas para as organizações. Esta importância aplica-se a vários níveis de análise entre os quais o setor público. Esta investigação visa analisar a importância relativa de cada dimensão do capital intelectual de uma Instituição de Ensino, bem como o impacto do mesmo na performance (percecionada pelos seus stakeholders). Nesta dissertação adotamos o método de Estudo de Caso, utilizando uma abordagem mista – quantitativa e qualitativa. Utilizámos variadas técnicas na recolha de dados, tais como: entrevista, registo de áudio e questionários. Relativamente à análise de dados, efetuamos uma análise de conteúdo, análise de documentos e análise estatística. Ao nível de resultados, a análise qualitativa sugere que as três dimensões do Capital Intelectual (Capital Humano, Capital Estrutural e Capital Relacional) devem possuir a mesma importância relativa para avaliar o capital intelectual de uma Instituição de Ensino. Os resultados quantitativos sugerem que o capital intelectual tem impacto na performance, o que está em linha com a literatura sobre o tema. Finalmente, considerámos que esta tese contribui para uma sensibilização relativamente à importância do capital intelectual para melhorar a gestão e performance em contextos educacionais.

A demonstração dos fluxos de caixa nas instituições particulares de solidariedade social

Dada a atual conjuntura económica internacional, a Economia Social tem vindo a aumentar consideravelmente a sua importância. Desta forma, torna-se importante conhecer o normativo contabilístico que é aplicado em Portugal. No caso concreto das Entidades do Setor Não Lucrativo, surgiu a necessidade de se encontrarem formas mais eficientes de gerir os recursos para dar resposta às necessidades sociais emergentes, e por isso, estas entidades foram, em 2011, enquadradas num novo contexto legal. O sucesso, o crescimento e a sobrevivência de uma entidade dependem da sua capacidade para gerar fluxos de caixa e/ou obter os recursos financeiros necessários ao desenvolvimento da sua atividade. Neste sentido, é a Demonstração de Fluxos de Caixa (DFC) que fornece aos seus utilizadores uma base para avaliar a capacidade da entidade gerar e utilizar os seus fluxos de caixa. Esta dissertação aborda uma área de estudo, ainda pouco investigada, a Economia Social e, em particular, as Instituições Particulares de Solidariedade Social (IPSS), sendo notório que o interesse por esta área tem vindo a acentuar-se nos últimos anos. Assim, fazendo o respetivo enquadramento teórico e normativo, avalia-se a importância da DFC, mais especificamente, a importância do relato dos fluxos nas IPSS. Para a realização desta dissertação, foi feita a análise em profundidade do relato da DFC nas IPSS, recorrendo à metodologia qualitativa, nomeadamente, à investigação descritiva, aos métodos e técnicas de recolha de dados, e, por último, à análise de conteúdo para tratar os dados qualitativos, tais como, as entrevistas. Para tratar alguns dados estatísticos foi utilizado o Microsoft Excel do Microsoft Office. A presente dissertação demonstra que o relato dos fluxos da DFC é extremamente importante, pois proporciona informação financeira que é importante no processo de tomada de decisão e na avaliação do desempenho financeiro das IPSS.

Sensor Data Visualization in Virtual Globe

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

IPTV data reduction strategy to measure real users’ behaviours

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática

RingDings market analysis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Microscopy image segmentation by active contour models

In this thesis a semi-automated cell analysis system is described through image processing. To achieve this, an image processing algorithm was studied in order to segment cells in a semi-automatic way. The main goal of this analysis is to increase the performance of cell image segmentation process, without affecting the results in a significant way. Even though, a totally manual system has the ability of producing the best results, it has the disadvantage of taking too long and being repetitive, when a large number of images need to be processed. An active contour algorithm was tested in a sequence of images taken by a microscope. This algorithm, more commonly known as snakes, allowed the user to define an initial region in which the cell was incorporated. Then, the algorithm would run several times, making the initial region contours to converge to the cell boundaries. With the final contour, it was possible to extract region properties and produce statistical data. This data allowed to say that this algorithm produces similar results to a purely manual system but at a faster rate. On the other hand, it is slower than a purely automatic way but it allows the user to adjust the contour, making it more versatile and tolerant to image variations.

Storage of water molecules into biomimetic heterostructures: the role of roughness

The development of devices based on heterostructured thin films of biomolecules conveys a huge contribution on biomedical field. However, to achieve high efficiency of these devices, the storage of water molecules into these heterostructures, in order to maintain the biological molecules hydrated, is mandatory. Such hydrated environment may be achieved with lipids molecules which have the ability to rearrange spontaneously into vesicles creating a stable barrier between two aqueous compartments. Yet it is necessary to find conditions that lead to the immobilization of whole vesicles on the heterostructures. In this work, the conditions that govern the deposition of open and closed liposomes of 1.2-dipalmitoyl-sn-Glycero-3-[Phospho-rac-(1-glycerol)] (sodium Salt) (DPPG) onto polyelectrolytes cushions prepared by the layer-by-layer (LbL) method were analyzed. Electronic transitions of DPPG molecules as well as absorption coefficients were obtained by vacuum ultraviolet spectroscopy, while the elemental composition of the heterostructures was characterized by x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). The presence of water molecules in the films was inferred by XPS and infrared spectroscopy. Quartz crystal microbalance (QCM) data analysis allowed to conclude that, in certain cases, the DPPG adsorbed amount is dependent of the bilayers number already adsorbed. Moreover, the adsorption kinetics curves of both adsorbed amount and surface roughness allowed to determine the kinetics parameters that are related with adsorption processes namely, electrostatic forces, liposomes diffusion and lipids re-organization on surface. Scaling exponents attained from atomic force microscopy images statistical analysis demonstrate that DPPG vesicles adsorption mechanism is ruled by the diffusion Villain model confirming that adsorption is governed by electrostatic forces. The power spectral density treatment enabled a thorough description of the accessible surface of the samples as well as of its inner structural properties. These outcomes proved that surface roughness influences the adsorption of DPPG liposomes onto surfaces covered by a polyelectrolyte layer. Thus, low roughness was shown to induce liposome rupture creating a lipid bilayer while high roughness allows the adsorption of whole liposomes. In addition, the fraction of open liposomes calculated from the normalized maximum adsorbed amounts decreases with the cushion roughness increase, allowing us to conclude that the surface roughness is a crucial variable that governs the adsorption of open or whole liposomes. This conclusion is fundamental for the development of well-designed sensors based on functional biomolecules incorporated in liposomes. Indeed, LbL films composed of polyelectrolytes and liposomes with and without melanin encapsulated were successfully applied to sensors of olive oil.

Statistics as a basis for discrimination in the insurance business

The European Court of Justice has held that as from 21 December 2012 insurers may no longer charge men and women differently on the basis of scientific evidence that is statistically linked to their sex, effectively prohibiting the use of sex as a factor in the calculation of premiums and benefits for the purposes of insurance and related financial services throughout the European Union. This ruling marks a sharp turn away from the traditional view that insurers should be allowed to apply just about any risk assessment criterion, so long as it is sustained by the findings of actuarial science. The naïveté behind the assumption that insurers’ recourse to statistical data and probabilistic analysis, given their scientific nature, would suffice to keep them out of harm’s way was exposed. In this article I look at the flaws of this assumption and question whether this judicial decision, whilst constituting a most welcome landmark in the pursuit of equality between men and women, has nonetheless gone too far by saying too little on the million dollar question of what separates admissible criteria of differentiation from inadmissible forms of discrimination.

The effectiveness of the “Processo Especial de Revitalização” as an instrument of corporate restructuring in the context of the current economic crisis

This work project intends to evaluate the effectiveness of the Portuguese Government’s strategy to promote the orderly deleveraging of the corporate sector in the context of the current economic crisis. The recommendations of the Troika and the commitments assumed under the Memorandum of Understanding signed by the Government in 2011 required the creation of formal processes to avoid disorderly deleveraging. Conclusions and recommendations were drawn based on past experiences of large-scale corporate restructuring strategies in other countries and on the analysis of financial and statistical data on companies applying for “Programa Especial de Revitalização”.

Classificação Internacional de Funcionalidade, Incapacidade e Saúde : uma dimensão do neurodesenvolvimento

RESUMO: Objetivo Principal • Determinar a consistência da utilização dos instrumentos de avaliação da capacidade intelectual – escalas de Griffiths e WISC III – no enquadramento dos domínios e dos qualificadores da CIF-CJ, restrita às funções mentais do corpo. Objetivo secundário: • Estudar a efetividade e concordância inter-observador da aplicação da CIF, com base na leitura dos dados obtidos em avaliação efetuada com os instrumentos referidos, por duas observadoras independentes, em contexto de articulação saúde, respetivamente educação e segurança social Métodos • Estudo observacional, descritivo, transversal e prospetivo. • Foi estudada uma amostra de conveniência 355 crianças, num período de três anos (Maio de 2010 a 30 de Abril de 2013), com patologia da área da pediatria do neurodesenvolvimento (total de 4000 consultas) no Centro de Desenvolvimento (CD) do Hospital de Dona Estefânia (HDE), Centro Hospitalar de Lisboa Central, EPE (CHLC, EPE). • Critérios de inclusão: crianças de ambos os sexos, observadas no CD do HDE, CHLC (primeiras consultas e consultas de reavaliação) com idade ≥12 meses e ≤17 anos e incapacidade intelectual definida de acordo com os critérios da DSM-IV-TR, DSM 5 e CID-10. • Critérios de exclusão: crianças com autismo, perturbações específicas da linguagem, hiperatividade, défice de atenção e concentração, défices sensoriais congénitos (baixa visão e ou audição), ou com outros diagnósticos de perturbações de neurodesenvolvimento. • O estudo teve duas fases: na primeira, a investigadora principal colheu ou atualizou a história clínica, observou clinicamente as crianças solicitando os exames complementares considerados necessários e foi efetuada avaliação psicológica com os instrumentos adiante descritos, pela mesma psicóloga clínica, devidamente credenciada, e com larga experiência nas escalas referidas. Com base nos dados colhidos, quer por observação direta, quer através dos resultados das escalas Griffiths e WISC – III, a investigadora aplicou a CIF-CJ, circunscrita aos domínios e funções (variáveis): 1. FUNÇÕESMENTAIS GLOBAIS (b110- Funções da consciência, b114- Funções da orientação no espaço e no tempo, b117 – Funções intelectuais, b122- Funções psicossociais globais, b125- Funções intrapessoais, b126- Funções do temperamento e da personalidade); 2.FUNÇÕES MENTAIS ESPECÌFICAS (b140- funções da atenção, b147- Funções psicomotoras, b152- Funções emocionais, b156- Funções da perceção, b163- Funções cognitivas básicas, b164- Funções cognitivas de nível superior, b167- Funções mentais da linguagem 3. FUNÇÕES DA VOZ E DA FALA (b320- Funções da articulação, b330- Funções da fluência e do ritmo da fala). Numa segunda fase, foi solicitada a colaboração de duas co-investigadoras, com formação específica nas escalas utilizadas e na CIF-CJ, a aplicação da CIF nos mesmos domínios e funções. Estas observadoras não efetuaram observações diretas das crianças envolvidas. • Para efetuar a análise estatística e analisar a relação entre os qualificadores (0 a 4) das variáveis da CIF em estudo (b117, b122, b147, b163, b164, b167, b320 e b330) e os instrumentos psicométricos (escalas de Griffiths e WISC III), que constitui a primeira parte do estudo, recorreu-se à técnica estatística não paramétrica do coeficiente de correlação de Spearman, que quantifica a intensidade e sinal da eventual correlação existente entre as variáveis em estudo. • Para determinar as correlações referentes à segunda parte do estudo, foram utilizados os programas SPSS®, (IBM SPSS Statistics) e Statistica® (StatSoft, Inc., 2011). STATISTICA (data analysis software system, version 10. www.statsoft.com.), tendo-se dado preferência aos gráficos deste último. Resultados 1. Observou-se um predomínio do sexo masculino (relação de 1:1,9); relativamente à idade no momento de avaliação, 242 crianças (68,1%) tinham entre zero e seis anos e, dentro destas, a maioria (189) situava-se entre os três e os seis anos. 2. De acordo com a DSM-IV e DSM-5, 261 (73,4%) crianças apresentavam incapacidade intelectual ligeira. 3. A avaliação da competência intelectual pelas escalas de Ruth Griffiths e WISC III (QI), revelaram correlação negativa predominantemente forte e muito forte (índice de Spearman) com os qualificadores das funções do corpo estudadas (funções mentais, mentais específicas e da voz). Os resultados obtidos pela co-investigadora A foram sobreponíveis aos da investigadora principal. Os resultados obtidos pela co-investigadora B revelaram correlação negativa moderada e forte, correlação inferior à da investigadora principal; Conclusões Os resultados permitem inferir que as escalas de Ruth Griffiths e WISC-III são instrumentos adequados para caracterizar a incapacidade intelectual na CIF-CJ; a concordância inter-observador, moderada, nos qualificadores atribuídos nas funções em análise pela investigadora e co-investigadoras, permite concluir que as escalas de Ruth Griffiths e WISC IIIl são bons instrumentos para caracterizar os qualificadores nos domínios e funções estudados, por diferentes grupos de profissionais ligados à infância. Subsistem dificuldades na diferenciação entre qualificadores, designadamente entre os qualificadores 1 e 2, o que tem necessariamente implicações na elegibilidade das crianças para os apoios preconizados pelo DL 3/2008. ------------------------ ABSTRACT: Main objective • To determine the consistency of the use of assessment tools for intellectual ability - Griffiths and WISC III scales - in the context of domains and qualifiers for the ICF-CY, restricted to the mental functions of the body. Secondary objective • Studying the effectiveness and inter-observer concordance concerning the application of the ICF, based on the data recovered from the assessment made with the mentioned instruments, carried out by two independent observers including their perspective on health, education and social security. Methods • Observational, descriptive, cross-sectional and prospective study. • A convenience sample of 355 children was studied over a period of three years (May 2010 to April 2013), with a pathology in the area of pediatric neurodevelopment – intellectual disability (total of 4000 consultations, including first consultations and revaluations) were observed in the Development Centre (CD) in Hospital de Dona Estefânia (HDE), Centro Hospitalar de Lisboa Central, EPE (CHLC). • Inclusion criteria: children of both sexes aged ≥12 months and years ≤17 and intellectual disability defined according to the criteria in the DSM-IV-TR, DSM 5 and ICD-10. • Exclusion criteria: children with autism; specific language impairment, hyperactivity; attention deficit disorder; severe birth sensory deficits (eg, impaired vision and hearing); amongst other diagnoses for neurodevelopmental disorders. • The study was conducted in two phases: in the first phase the principal investigator collected or updated medical history, clinically observed children requesting additional investigations if she deemed necessary. Psychological evaluation was performed by a single, duly licensed clinical psychologist with extensive experience in the referred scales using the instruments described below. Based on data collected, either by direct observation or through the results of Griffiths scales and WISC - III, the researcher applied the ICF-CY confined to the following fields and functions (variables): 1. GLOBAL MENTAL FUNCTIONS (b110- functions of consciousness, b114- Functions referring to space and time orientation , b117 - intellectual functions, b122- global psychosocial functions, b125- intrapersonal functions, b126- functions related to temperament and personality); 2. SPECIFIC MENTAL FUNCTIONS ( b140- attention functions, b147-psychomotor functions, b152- Emotional functions, b156- perception functions, b163- basic cognitive functions and cognitive functions b164- top level b167- language related mental functions. ) 3. VOICE AND SPEECH FUNCTIONS (b320-articulation functions, b330- fluency and rhythm of speech functions). • In the second phase, two co-investigators, with specific training on the scales used and the ICF-CY have applied the ICF in the domains and functions mentioned above, based on the scales results. These co-investigators did not make any direct observation of the studied children. • To perform the statistical analysis and analyze the relationship between the qualifiers (0-4) of the variables in the ICF study (b117, b122, b147, B163, B164, b167, b320 and B330) and psychometric instruments (Griffiths scale and WISC III), which is the first part of the study, the statistical technique of non-parametric Spearman correlation coefficient was used, which quantifies the strength and sign of the possible correlation between the variables under study. • For submission of correlations related to the second part of the study, SPSS (IBM SPSS) and Statistica (StatSoft, Inc., 2011) programs were used. STATISTICA (data analysis software system, version 10 www.statsoft.com.). Preference was given to graphs computed in Statistica. Results • Male predominated (ratio of 1: 1.9). 242 children (68.1% of the sample) were aged between zero and six years and, among these, the majority (189) was aged largest number between three and six years. • According to the DSM-IV and DSM-5, 261 (73.4%) children had mild intellectual disability. The correlation between the assessment of intellectual competence by Ruth Griffiths scales and WISC III (QI), was predominantly negative strong and very strong correlation with the qualifiers of body functions studied (specific mental functions, mental and voice functions using Spearman index). The levels of correlation obtained by the co-investigatores were in agreeance with the results from the principal investigator. The results obtained by co-investigator B showed moderate to strong negative correlation, levels that were lower to the those registered by the principal investigator; Conclusions These results indicate that Ruth Griffiths and WISC-III scales are adequate tools to characterize intellectual disability in the ICF-CY; moderate inter-observer agreement in the qualifiers assigned the functions under analysis by the researcher and co-researchers, shows that the scales are also good tools to measure CIF qualifyers by diferent technicians with different professional orientations, related to children. However, there are still difficulties in differentiating qualifiers, namely between qualifiers 1/2 and 3/4, which necessarily has implications for the eligibility of children for the state support advocated by the Portuguese Decret Law 3/2008.