778 resultados para Exchange rate volatility
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We used an eddy covariance technique to measure evapotranspiration and carbon flux over two very different growing seasons for a typical steppe on the Inner Mongolia Plateau, China. The rainfall during the 2004 growing season (344.7 mm) was close to the annual average (350.43 mm). In contrast, precipitation during the 2005 growing season was significantly lower than average (only 126 mm). The wet 2004 growing season had a higher peak evapotranspiration (4 mm day(-1)) than did the dry 2005 growing season (3.3 mm day(-1)). In 2004, latent heat flux was mainly a consumption resource for net radiation, accounting for similar to 46% of net radiation. However, sensible heat flux dominated the energy budget over the whole growing season in 2005, accounting for 60% of net radiation. The evaporative rate (LE/R-n) dropped by a factor of four from the non-soil stress to soil water limiting conditions. Maximum half-hourly CO2 uptake was -0.68 mg m(-2) s(-1) and maximum ecosystem exchange was 4.3 g CO2 m(-2) day(-1) in 2004. The 2005 drought growing stage had a maximum CO2 exchange value of only -0.22 mg m(-2) s(-1) and a continuous positive integrated-daily CO2 flux over the entire growing season, i.e. the ecosystem became a net carbon source. Soil respiration was temperature dependent when the soil was under non-limiting soil moisture conditions, but this response declined with soil water stress. Water availability and a high vapor pressure deficit severely limited carbon fixing of this ecosystem; thus, during the growing season, the capacity to fix CO2 was closely related to both timing and frequency of rainfall events. (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.
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We exploit the distributional information contained in high-frequency intraday data in constructing a simple conditional moment estimator for stochastic volatility diffusions. The estimator is based on the analytical solutions of the first two conditional moments for the latent integrated volatility, the realization of which is effectively approximated by the sum of the squared high-frequency increments of the process. Our simulation evidence indicates that the resulting GMM estimator is highly reliable and accurate. Our empirical implementation based on high-frequency five-minute foreign exchange returns suggests the presence of multiple latent stochastic volatility factors and possible jumps. © 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
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Recent empirical findings suggest that the long-run dependence in U.S. stock market volatility is best described by a slowly mean-reverting fractionally integrated process. The present study complements this existing time-series-based evidence by comparing the risk-neutralized option pricing distributions from various ARCH-type formulations. Utilizing a panel data set consisting of newly created exchange traded long-term equity anticipation securities, or leaps, on the Standard and Poor's 500 stock market index with maturity times ranging up to three years, we find that the degree of mean reversion in the volatility process implicit in these prices is best described by a Fractionally Integrated EGARCH (FIEGARCH) model. © 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.
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Many of the reactive trace gases detected in the atmosphere are both emitted from and deposited to the global oceans via exchange across the air–sea interface. The resistance to transfer through both air and water phases is highly sensitive to physical drivers (waves, bubbles, films, etc.), which can either enhance or suppress the rate of diffusion. In addition to outlining the fundamental processes controlling the air–sea gas exchange, the authors discuss these drivers, describe the existing parameterizations used to predict transfer velocities, and summarize the novel techniques for measuring in situ exchange rates. They review trace gases that influence climate via radiative forcing (greenhouse gases), those that can alter the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere (nitrogen- and sulfur-containing gases), and those that impact ozone levels (organohalogens), both in the troposphere and stratosphere. They review the known biological and chemical routes of production and destruction within the water column for these gases, whether the ocean acts as a source or sink, and whether temporal and spatial variations in saturation anomalies are observed. A current estimate of the marine contribution to the total atmospheric flux of these gases, which often highlights the significance of the oceans in biogeochemical cycling of trace gases, is provided, and how air–sea gas fluxes may change in the future is briefly assessed.
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The air-sea fluxes of methanol and acetone were measured concurrently using a proton-transfer-reaction mass spectrometer (PTR-MS) with the eddy covariance (EC) technique during the High Wind Gas Exchange Study (HiWinGS) in 2013. The seawater concentrations of these compounds were also measured twice daily with the same PTR-MS coupled to a membrane inlet. Dissolved concentrations near the surface ranged from 7 to 28 nM for methanol and from 3 to 9 nM for acetone. Both gases were consistently transported from the atmosphere to the ocean as a result of their low sea surface saturations. The largest influxes were observed in regions of high atmospheric concentrations and strong winds (up to 25 m s(-1)). Comparison of the total air-sea transfer velocity of these two gases (K-a), along with the in situ sensible heat transfer rate, allows us to constrain the individual gas transfer velocity in the air phase (k(a)) and water phase (k(w)). Among existing parameterizations, the scaling of k(a) from the COARE model is the most consistent with our observations. The k(w) we estimated is comparable to the tangential (shear driven) transfer velocity previously determined from measurements of dimethyl sulfide. Lastly, we estimate the wet deposition of methanol and acetone in our study region and evaluate the lifetimes of these compounds in the surface ocean and lower atmosphere with respect to total (dry plus wet) atmospheric deposition.
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This paper presents evidence that the bid-ask spreads in euro rates increased relative to the corresponding bid-ask spreads in the German mark (DM) prior to the creation of the currency union. This comes with a decrease in transaction volume in the euro rates relative to the previous DM rates. The starkest example is the DM(euro)/yen rate in which the spread has risen by almost two-thirds while the volume decreased by more than one third. This outcome is surprising because the common currency concentrated market liquidity in fewer external euro rates and higher volume tends to be associated with lower spreads. We propose a microstructure explanation based on a change in the information environment of the FX market. The elimination of many cross currency pairs increased the market transparency for order flow imbalances in the dealership market. It is argued that higher market transparency adversely affects the inventory risk sharing efficiency of the dealership market and induces the observed euro spread increase and transaction volume shortfall.
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The flexible-price two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. Two methodologies are employed to explore this model's ability to generate volatile and persistent exchange rates. In the first, actual data is used for the exogenous driving processes. In the second, the model is simulated using estimated forcing processes. The theory, in both cases, is capable of explaining the high volatility and persistence of real and nominal exchange rates as well as the high correlation between real and nominal rates. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Data derived from a series of field and laboratory studies of the influence of albedo and thermal conductivity on stone temperatures are reported. They indicate the complexity of surface/subsurface temperature response characteristics of different stone types exposed to the same conditions and highlight the influence of albedo and thermal conductivity on micro-environmental conditions at the rock/air interface – conditions which have significant implications for the nature and rate of weathering activity and which may, over time, affect any surface treatments applied to stone surfaces. Although the studies reviewed were carried out within the subject area of geomorphology, the data reported and the implications for stone weathering arising from them, may be of some relevance to the conservation science perspective on deterioration of contemporary, historical and archaeological stonework.
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Regions of Restricted Exchange (RREs) are an important feature of the European coastline. They are historically preferred sites for human settlement and aquaculture and their ecosystems, and consequent human use, may be at risk from eutrophication. The OAERRE project (EVK3-CT1999-0002 concerns ‘Oceanographic Applications to Eutrophication in Regions of Restricted Exchange’. It began in July 2000, and studies six sites. Four of these sites are fjords: Kongsfjorden (west coast of Spitzbergen); Gullmaren (Skagerrak coast of Sweden); Himmerfj.arden (Baltic coast of Sweden); and the Firth of Clyde (west coast of Scotland). Two are bays sheltered by sand bars: Golfe de Fos (French Mediterranean); and Ria Formosa (Portuguese Algarve). Together they exemplify a range of hydrographic and enrichment conditions. The project aims to understand the physical, biogeochemical and biological processes, and their interactions, that determine the trophic status of these coastal marine RRE through the development of simple screening models to define, predict and assess eutrophication. This paper introduces the sites and describes the component parts of a basic screening model and its application to each site using historical data. The model forms the starting point for the OAERRE project and views an RRE as a well-mixed box, exchanging with the sea at a daily rate E determined by physical processes, and converting nutrient to phytoplankton chlorophyll at a fixed yield q: It thus uses nutrient levels to estimate maximum biomass; these preliminary results are discussed in relation to objective criteria used to assess trophic status. The influence of factors such as grazing and vertical mixing on key parameters in the screening model are further studied using simulations of a complex‘research’ model for the Firth of Clyde. The future development of screening models in general and within OAERRE in particular is discussed. In addition, the paper looks ahead with a broad discussion of progress in the scientific understanding of eutrophication and the legal and socioeconomic issues that need to be taken into account in managing the trophic status of RREs.
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Senior thesis written for Oceanography 444
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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Química, especialidade de Engenharia Bioquímica
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This paper is mainly concerned with the tracking accuracy of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) but also evaluates their performance and pricing efficiency. The findings show that ETFs offer virtually the same return but exhibit higher volatility than their benchmark. It seems that the pricing efficiency, which should come from the creation and redemption process, does not fully hold as equity ETFs show consistent price premiums. The tracking error of the funds is generally small and is decreasing over time. The risk of the ETF, daily price volatility and the total expense ratio explain a large part of the tracking error. Trading volume, fund size, bid-ask spread and average price premium or discount did not have an impact on the tracking error. Finally, it is concluded that market volatility and the tracking error are positively correlated.
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The proce-ss ofoxygenic photosynthesis is vital to life on Earth. the central event in photosynthesis is light induced electron transfer that converts light into energy for growth. Ofparticular significance is the membrane bound multisubunit protein known as Photosystem I (PSI). PSI is a reaction centre that is responsible for the transfer of electrons across the membrane to reduce NADP+ to NADPH. The recent publication ofa high resolution X-ray structure of PSI has shown new information about the structure, in particular the electron transfer cofactors, which allows us to study it in more detail. In PSI, the secondary acceptor is crucial for forward electron transfer. In this thesis, the effect of removing the native acceptor phylloquinone and replacing it with a series of structurally related quinones was investigated via transient electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) experiments. The orientation of non native quinones in the binding site and their ability to function in the electron transfer process was determined. It was found that PSI will readily accept alkyl naphthoquinones and anthraquinone. Q band EPR experiments revealed that the non-native quinones are incorporated into the binding site with the same orientation of the headgroup as in the native system. X band EPR spectra and deuteration experiments indicate that monosubstituted naphthoquinones are bound to the Al site with their side group in the position occupied by the methyl group in native PSI (meta to the hydrogen bonded carbonyl oxygen). X band EPR experiments show that 2, 3- disubstituted methyl naphthoquinones are also incorporated into the Al site in the same orientation as phylloquinone, even with the presence of a halogen- or sulfur-containing side chain in the position normally occupied by the phytyl tail ofphylloquinone. The exception to this is 2-bromo-3-methyl --.- _. -. - -- - - 4 _._ _ _ - _ _ naphthoquinone which has a poorly resolved spectrum, making determination of the orientation difficuh. All of the non-native quinones studied act as efficient electron acceptors. However, forward electron transfer past the quinone could only be demonstrated for anthraquinone, which has a more negative midpoint potential than phylloquinone. In the case of anthraquinone, an increased rate of forward electron transfer compared to native PSI was found. From these results we can conclude that the rate ofelectron transfer from Al to Fx in native PSI lies in the normal region ofthe Marcus Curve.
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For predicting future volatility, empirical studies find mixed results regarding two issues: (1) whether model free implied volatility has more information content than Black-Scholes model-based implied volatility; (2) whether implied volatility outperforms historical volatilities. In this thesis, we address these two issues using the Canadian financial data. First, we examine the information content and forecasting power between VIXC - a model free implied volatility, and MVX - a model-based implied volatility. The GARCH in-sample test indicates that VIXC subsumes all information that is reflected in MVX. The out-of-sample examination indicates that VIXC is superior to MVX for predicting the next 1-, 5-, 10-, and 22-trading days' realized volatility. Second, we investigate the predictive power between VIXC and alternative volatility forecasts derived from historical index prices. We find that for time horizons lesser than 10-trading days, VIXC provides more accurate forecasts. However, for longer time horizons, the historical volatilities, particularly the random walk, provide better forecasts. We conclude that VIXC cannot incorporate all information contained in historical index prices for predicting future volatility.
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This thesis investigates how macroeconomic news announcements affect jumps and cojumps in foreign exchange markets, especially under different business cycles. We use 5-min interval from high frequency data on Euro/Dollar, Pound/Dollar and Yen/Dollar from Nov. 1, 2004 to Feb. 28, 2015. The jump detection method was proposed by Andersen et al. (2007c), Lee & Mykland (2008) and then modified by Boudt et al. (2011a) for robustness. Then we apply the two-regime smooth transition regression model of Teräsvirta (1994) to explore news effects under different business cycles. We find that scheduled news related to employment, real activity, forward expectations, monetary policy, current account, price and consumption influences forex jumps, but only FOMC Rate Decisions has consistent effects on cojumps. Speeches given by major central bank officials near a crisis also significantly affect jumps and cojumps. However, the impacts of some macroeconomic news are not the same under different economic states.