Structural Breaks in Mortality Models and their Consequences

In recent years, the issue of life expectancy has become of upmost importance to pension providers, insurance companies and the government bodies in the developed world. Significant and consistent improvements in mortality rates and, hence, life expectancy have led to unprecedented increases in the cost of providing for older ages. This has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models forecasting trends in mortality data in order to anticipate future life expectancy and, hence, quantify the costs of providing for future aging populations. Many stochastic models of mortality rates identify linear trends in mortality rates by time, age and cohort, and forecast these trends into the future using standard statistical methods. The modeling approaches used failed to capture the effects of any structural change in the trend and, thus, potentially produced incorrect forecasts of future mortality rates. In this paper, we look at a range of leading stochastic models of mortality and test for structural breaks in the trend time series.

Government decisions before and during the First World War and the living standards in Germany during a drastic natural experiment

The First World War hit Germany severely, particularly the agricultural sector, because the outbreak came unexpected and its duration exceeded all expectations. Many resources necessary for agricultural production were required by the war economy and led to shortages and shrinking supplies. Many agricultural laborers were drafted and the blockade imposed by the allies prevented Germany from a great deal of imports. As a consequence, the nutritional situation was devastating, particularly after 1916, and hit all groups of the German society. The period under observation provides one of most drastic natural experiments in the 20th century. This study uses anthropometric data from German soldiers who served in the Second World War to trace living standards between the 1900s and the 1920s. In contrast to other approaches, this paper is able to distinguish between social groups by occupation, religious denominatio\n, regional origin, and city size. The results suggest that although all social strata were hit by famine conditions, the height of farmers, urban citizens, Catholics, and especially individuals born in the highly integrated food-import regions along the coast and the banks of the Rhine declined most.

Government as Institutional Entrepreneur: Extending Working Life in the UK and Japan

Through the lens of Institutional Entrepreneurship, this paper discusses how governments use the levers of power afforded through business and welfare systems to affect change in the organisational management of older workers. It does so using national stakeholder interviews in two contrasting economies: the United Kingdom and Japan. Both governments have taken a ‘light-touch’ approach to work and retirement. However, the highly institutionalised Japanese system affords the government greater leverage than that of the liberal UK system in changing employer practices at the workplace level.

The impact of organisational factors and government policy on psychiatric nurses family focused practice with parents who have mental illness, their dependent children and families in Ireland

Government policy and organizational factors influence family focused practice in adult mental health services. However, how these aspects shape psychiatric nurses’ practice with parents who have mental illness, their dependent children and families is less well understood. Drawing on the findings of a qualitative study, this article explores the way in which Irish policy and organizational factors might influence psychiatric nurses’ family focused practice, and whether (and how) family focused practice might be further promoted. A purposive sample of 14 psychiatric nurses from eight mental health services completed semi-structured interviews in 2013. The analysis was inductive and presented as thematic networks. Both groups described how policies and organizational culture enabled and/or hindered family focused practice, with differences between community and acute participants seen. The need to develop national and international policies along with practices to embed information and support regarding parenting into ongoing care is implicated in this study.

Inside the tent: Community and government in refugee camps

Refugee camps are increasingly managed through a liberal rationality of government similar to that of many industrialized societies, with security mechanisms being used to optimize the life of particular refugee populations. This governmentality has encompassed programmes introduced by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and various non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to build and empower communities through the spatial technology of the camp. The present article argues that such attempts to ‘govern through community’ have been too easily dismissed or ignored. It therefore examines how such programmes work to produce, manage and conduct refugees through the use of a highly instrumentalized understanding of community in the spatial and statistical management of displaced people in camps. However, community is always both more and less than what is claimed of it, and therefore undermines attempts to use it as a governing tactic. By shifting to a more ontological understanding of community as unavoidable coexistence, inspired by Jean-Luc Nancy, we can see how the scripting of and government through community in camps is continually exceeded, redirected and resisted. Ethnographies of specific camps in Africa and the Middle East enable us both to see how the necessary sociality of being resists its own instrumentalization and to view the camp as a spatial security technology. Such resistance does not necessarily lead to greater security, but it redirects our attention to how community is used to conduct the behaviour of refugees, while also producing counter-conducts that offer greater agency, meaning and mobility to those displaced in camps.

Model of access to natural language sources in electronic government

For the actual existence of e-government it is necessary and crucial to provide public information and documentation, making its access simple to citizens. A portion, not necessarily small, of these documents is in an unstructured form and in natural language, and consequently outside of which the current search systems are generally able to cope and effectively handle. Thus, in thesis, it is possible to improve access to these contents using systems that process natural language and create structured information, particularly if supported in semantics. In order to put this thesis to test, this work was developed in three major phases: (1) design of a conceptual model integrating the creation of structured information and making it available to various actors, in line with the vision of e-government 2.0; (2) definition and development of a prototype instantiating the key modules of this conceptual model, including ontology based information extraction supported by examples of relevant information, knowledge management and access based on natural language; (3) assessment of the usability and acceptability of querying information as made possible by the prototype - and in consequence of the conceptual model - by users in a realistic scenario, that included comparison with existing forms of access. In addition to this evaluation, at another level more related to technology assessment and not to the model, evaluations were made on the performance of the subsystem responsible for information extraction. The evaluation results show that the proposed model was perceived as more effective and useful than the alternatives. Associated with the performance of the prototype to extract information from documents, comparable to the state of the art, results demonstrate the feasibility and advantages, with current technology, of using natural language processing and integration of semantic information to improve access to unstructured contents in natural language. The conceptual model and the prototype demonstrator intend to contribute to the future existence of more sophisticated search systems that are also more suitable for e-government. To have transparency in governance, active citizenship, greater agility in the interaction with the public administration, among others, it is necessary that citizens and businesses have quick and easy access to official information, even if it was originally created in natural language.

From the Government to the Streets: Why the U.S. is a Policy Innovator in Disability Rights

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2012

The Politics of Minister Retention in Presidential Systems: Technocrats, Partisans, and Government Approval

This article examines the impact of presidential approval and individual minister profiles on minister turnover. It claims that, in order to prioritize sustainable policy performance and cabinet loyalty, government chiefs protect and remove technocrats, partisans, and outsider ministers conditional on government approval. The study offers an operational definition of minister profiles that relies on fuzzy-set measures of technical expertise and political affiliation, and tests the hypotheses using survival analysis with an original dataset for the Argentine case (1983–2011). The findings show that popular presidents are likely to protect experts more than partisan ministers, but not outsiders.