Isomerization Dynamics In Solution In The Absence Of An Activation Barrier - Evaluation Of The Potential Parameters

We analyze recent experimental results of Sundström and Gillbro by using the theory of Bagchi, Fleming and Oxtoby. The experimental results are in good agreement with this theory, but not with the earlier theory of Förster and Hoffmann. By fitting the new experimental results to the theory, we obtain approximate estimates of the frequency of the excited surface (assumed harmonic) and the width of the sink function.

Impact of control strategies on bellyache bush (Jatropha gossypiifolia L.) mortality, seedling recruitment, population dynamics, pasture yield and cost analysis

Bellyache bush (Jatropha gossypiifolia L.) is an invasive weed that has the potential to greatly reduce biodiversity and pasture productivity in northern Australia’s rangelands. This paper reports an approach to develop best practice options for controlling medium to dense infestations of bellyache bush using combinations of control methods. The efficacy of five single treatments including foliar spraying, slashing, stick raking, burning and do nothing (control) were compared against 15 combinations of these treatments over 4 successive years. Treatments were evaluated using several attributes, including plant mortality, changes in population demographics, seedling recruitment, pasture yield and cost of treatment. Foliar spraying once each year for 4 years proved the most cost-effective control strategy, with no bellyache bush plants recorded at the end of the study. Single applications of slashing, stick raking and to a lesser extent burning, when followed up with foliar spraying also led to significantly reduced densities of bellyache bush and changed the population from a growing one to a declining one. Total experimental cost estimates over 4 successive years for treatments where burning, stick raking, foliar spraying, and slashing were followed with foliar spraying were AU$408, AU$584, AU$802 and AU$789 ha–1, respectively. Maximum pasture yield of 5.4 t ha–1 occurred with repeated foliar spraying. This study recommends that treatment combinations using either foliar spraying alone or as a follow up with slashing, stick raking or burning are best practice options following consideration of the level of control, changes in pasture yield and cost effectiveness.

Towards responsible native fish stocking: identifying management concerns and appropriate research methodologies

A major outcome of this project has been the identification and prioritisation of the major management issues related to the ecological impacts of fish stocking and the elucidation of appropriate research methodologies that can be used to investigate these issues. This information is paramount to development of the relevant research projects that will lead to stocking activities aligned with world’s best practice, a requisite for ecologically sustainable recreational freshwater fisheries. In order to quantify the major management issues allied to the sustainability of freshwater fish stocking, stakeholders from around Australia were identified and sent a questionnaire to determine which particular issues they regarded as important. These stakeholders included fisheries managers or researchers from Federal, Territory and State jurisdictions although others, including representatives from environment and conservation agencies and peak recreational fishing and stocking groups were also invited to give their opinions. The survey was completed in late 2007 and the results analysed to give a prioritized list of key management issues relating to the impacts of native fish stocking activities. In the analysis, issues which received high priority rankings were flagged as potential topics for discussion at a future expert workshop. Identified high priority issues fell into the following core areas: marking techniques, genetics, population dynamics, introduction of pathogens and exotic biological material and ecological, biological and conservation issues. The next planned outcome, determination of the most appropriate methodologies to address these core issues in research projects, was addressed through the outputs of an expert workshop held in early 2008. Participants at this workshop agreed on a range of methodologies for addressing priority sustainability issues and decided under what circumstances that these methodologies should be employed.

A Newton-Euler formulation for the inverse dynamics of the Stewart platform manipulator

This paper presents an inverse dynamic formulation by the Newton–Euler approach for the Stewart platform manipulator of the most general architecture and models all the dynamic and gravity effects as well as the viscous friction at the joints. It is shown that a proper elimination procedure results in a remarkably economical and fast algorithm for the solution of actuator forces, which makes the method quite suitable for on-line control purposes. In addition, the parallelism inherent in the manipulator and in the modelling makes the algorithm quite efficient in a parallel computing environment, where it can be made as fast as the corresponding formulation for the 6-dof serial manipulator. The formulation has been implemented in a program and has been used for a few trajectories planned for a test manipulator. Results of simulation presented in the paper reveal the nature of the variation of actuator forces in the Stewart platform and justify the dynamic modelling for control.

A conditionally linearized Monte Carlo filter in non-linear structural dynamics

State and parameter estimations of non-linear dynamical systems, based on incomplete and noisy measurements, are considered using Monte Carlo simulations. Given the measurements. the proposed method obtains the marginalized posterior distribution of an appropriately chosen (ideally small) subset of the state vector using a particle filter. Samples (particles) of the marginalized states are then used to construct a family of conditionally linearized system of equations and thus obtain the posterior distribution of the states using a bank of Kalman filters. Discrete process equations for the marginalized states are derived through truncated Ito-Taylor expansions. Increased analyticity and reduced dispersion of weights computed over a smaller sample space of marginalized states are the key features of the filter that help achieve smaller sample variance of the estimates. Numerical illustrations are provided for state/parameter estimations of a Duffing oscillator and a 3-DOF non-linear oscillator. Performance of the filter in parameter estimation is also assessed using measurements obtained through experiments on simple models in the laboratory. Despite an added computational cost, the results verify that the proposed filter generally produces estimates with lower sample variance over the standard sequential importance sampling (SIS) filter.

Improving management of summer weeds in dryland cropping systems with Cotton

In 2001 a scoping study (phase I) was commissioned to determine and prioritise the weed issues of cropping systems with dryland cotton. The main findings were that the weed flora was diverse, cropping systems complex, and weeds had a major financial and economical impact. Phase II 'Best weed management strategies for dryland cropping systems with cotton' focused on improved management of the key weeds, bladder ketmia, sowthistle, fleabane, barnyard grass and liverseed grass.In Phase III 'Improving management of summer weeds in dryland cropping systems with cotton', more information on the seed-bank dynamics of key weeds was gained in six pot and field studies. The studies found that these characteristics differed between species, and even climate in the case of bladder ketmia. Species such as sowthistle, fleabane and barnyard grass emerged predominately from the surface soil. Sweet summer grass was also in this category but also had a significant proportion emerging from 5 cm depth. Bladder ketmia in central Queensland emerged mainly from the top 2 cm, whereas in southern Queensland it emerged mainly from 5 cm. Liverseed grass had its highest emergence from 5 cm below the surface. In all cases the persistence of seed increased with increasing soil depth. Fleabane was also found to be sensitive to soil type with no seedlings emerging in the self-mulching black vertisol soil. A strategic tillage trial showed that burial of fleabane seed, using a disc or chisel plough, to a depth of greater than 2 cm can significantly reduce subsequent fleabane emergence. In contrast, tillage increased barnyard grass emergence and tended to decrease persistence. This research showed that weed management plans can not be blanketed across all weed species, rather they need to be targeted for each main weed species.This project has also resulted in an increased knowledge of how to manage fleabane from the eight experiments; one in wheat, two in sorghum, one in cotton and three in fallow on double knock. For summer crops, the best option is to apply a highly effective fallow treatment prior to sowing the crops. For winter crops, the strategy is the integration of competitive crops, residual herbicide followed by a knockdown to control survivors. This project explored further the usefulness of the double knock tactic for weed control and preventing seed set. Two field and one pot experiments have shown that this tactic was highly effective for fleabane control. Paraquat products provided good control when followed by glyphosate. When 2, 4-D was added in a tank mix with glyphosate and followed by paraquat products, 99-100% control was achieved in all cases. The ideal follow-up times for paraquat products after glyphosate were 5-7 days. The preferred follow-up times for 2, 4-D after glyphosate were on the same day and one day later. The pot trial, which compared a population from a cropping field with previous glyphosate exposure and a population from a non-cropping area with no previous glyphosate herbicide exposure, showed that the pervious herbicide exposure affected the response of fleabane to herbicidal control measures. The web-based brochure on managing fleabane has been updated.Knowledge on management of summer grasses and safe use of residual herbicides was derived from eight field and pot experiments. Residual grass and broadleaf weed control was excellent with atrazine pre-plant and at-planting treatments, provided rain was received within a short interval after application. Highly effective fallow treatments (cultivation and double knock), not only gave excellent grass control in the fallow, also gave very good control in the following cotton. In the five re-cropping experiments, there were no adverse impacts on cotton from atrazine, metolachlor, metsulfuron and chlorsulfuron residues following use in previous sorghum, wheat and fallows. However, imazapic residues did reduce cotton growth.The development of strategies to reduce the heavy reliance on glyphosate in our cropping systems, and therefore minimise the risk of glyphosate resistance development, was a key factor in the research undertaken. This work included identifying suitable tactics for summer grass control, such as double knock with glyphosate followed by paraquat and tillage. Research on fleabane also concentrated on minimising emergence through tillage, and applying the double knock tactic. Our studies have shown that these strategies can be used to prevent seed set with the goal of driving down the seed bank. Utilisation of the strategies will also reduce the reliance on glyphosate, and therefore reduce the risk of glyphosate resistance developing in our cropping systems.Information from this research, including ecological and management data were collected from an additional eight paddock monitoring sites, was also incorporated into the Weeds CRC seed bank model "Weed Seed Wizard", which will be able to predict the impact of different management options on weed populations in cotton and grain farming systems. Extensive communication activities were undertaken throughout this project to ensure adoption of the new strategies for improved weed management and reduced risk for glyphosate resistance.

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of plant pest invasions with human-mediated dispersal

Hierarchical Bayesian models can assimilate surveillance and ecological information to estimate both invasion extent and model parameters for invading plant pests spread by people. A reliability analysis framework that can accommodate multiple dispersal modes is developed to estimate human-mediated dispersal parameters for an invasive species. Uncertainty in the observation process is modelled by accounting for local natural spread and population growth within spatial units. Broad scale incursion dynamics are based on a mechanistic gravity model with a Weibull distribution modification to incorporate a local pest build-up phase. The model uses Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to infer the probability of colonisation times for discrete spatial units and to estimate connectivity parameters between these units. The hierarchical Bayesian model with observational and ecological components is applied to a surveillance dataset for a spiralling whitefly (Aleurodicus dispersus) invasion in Queensland, Australia. The model structure provides a useful application that draws on surveillance data and ecological knowledge that can be used to manage the risk of pest movement.

Telomere dynamics in the Sydney rock oyster (Saccostrea glomerata): an investigation into the effects of age, tissue type, location and time of sampling.

Telomere length has been purported as a biomarker for age and could offer a non-lethal method for determining the age of wild-caught individuals. Molluscs, including oysters and abalone, are the basis of important fisheries globally and have been problematic to accurately age. To determine whether telomere length could provide an alternative means of ageing molluscs, we evaluated the relationship between telomere length and age using the commercially important Sydney rock oyster (Saccostrea glomerata). Telomere lengths were estimated from tissues of known age individuals from different age classes, locations and at different sampling times. Telomere length tended to decrease with age only in young oysters less than 18 months old, but no decrease was observed in older oysters aged 2-4 years. Regional and temporal differences in telomere attrition rates were also observed. The relationship between telomere length and age was weak, however, with individuals of identical age varying significantly in their telomere length making it an imprecise age biomarker in oysters.

Is prosopis a curse or a blessing? : An ecological economic analysis of an invasive alien tree species in Sudan.

The issue of the usefulness of different prosopis species versus their status as weeds is a matter of hot debate around the world. The tree Prosopis juliflora had until 2000 been proclaimed weedy in its native range in South America and elsewhere in the dry tropics. P. juliflora or mesquite has a 90-year history in Sudan. During the early 1990s a popular opinion in central Sudan and the Sudanese Government had begun to consider prosopis a noxious weed and a problematic tree species due to its aggressive ability to invade farmlands and pastures, especially in and around irrigated agricultural lands. As a consequence prosopis was officially declared an invasive alien species also in Sudan, and in 1995 a presidential decree for its eradication was issued. Using a total economic valuation (TEV) approach, this study analysed the impacts of prosopis on the local livelihoods in two contrasting irrigated agricultural schemes. Primarily a problem-based approach was used in which the derivation of non-market values was captured using ecological economic tools. In the New Halfa Irrigation Scheme in Kassala State, four separate household surveys were conducted due to diversity between the respective population groups. The main aim was here to study the magnitude of environmental economic benefits and costs derived from the invasion of prosopis in a large agricultural irrigation scheme on clay soil. Another study site, the Gandato Irrigation Scheme in River Nile State represented impacts from prosopis that an irrigation scheme was confronted with on sandy soil in the arid and semi-arid ecozones along the main River Nile. The two cases showed distinctly different effects of prosopis but both indicated the benefits to exceed the costs. The valuation on clay soil in New Halfa identified a benefit/cost ratio of 2.1, while this indicator equalled 46 on the sandy soils of Gandato. The valuation results were site-specific and based on local market prices. The most important beneficial impacts of prosopis on local livelihoods were derived from free-grazing forage for livestock, environmental conservation of the native vegetation, wood and non-wood forest products, as well as shelterbelt effects. The main social costs from prosopis were derived from weeding and clearing it from farm lands and from canalsides, from thorn injuries to humans and livestock, as well as from repair expenses vehicle tyre punctures. Of the population groups, the tenants faced most of the detrimental impacts, while the landless population groups (originating from western and eastern Sudan) as well as the nomads were highly dependent on this tree resource. For the Gandato site the monetized benefit-cost ratio of 46 still excluded several additional beneficial impacts of prosopis in the area that were difficult to quantify and monetize credibly. In River Nile State the beneficial impact could thus be seen as completely outweighing the costs of prosopis. The results can contributed to the formulation of national and local forest and agricultural policies related to prosopis in Sudan and also be used in other countries faced with similar impacts caused by this tree.

Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery

Non-Technical Summary Seafood CRC Project 2009/774. Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery Principal Investigator: Dr Tony Courtney, Principal Fisheries Biologist Fisheries and Aquaculture, Agri-Science Queensland Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Level B1, Ecosciences Precinct, Joe Baker St, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102 Email: tony.courtney@daff.qld.gov.au Project objectives: 1. Review the literature and data (i.e., economic, biological and logbook) relevant to the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 2. Identify and prioritise management objectives for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery, as identified by the trawl fishers. 3. Undertake an economic analysis of Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 4. Quantify long-term changes to fishing power for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 5. Assess priority harvest strategies identified in 2 (above). Present results to, and discuss results with, Moreton Bay Seafood Industry Association (MBSIA), fishers and Fisheries Queensland. Note: Additional, specific objectives for 2 (above) were developed by fishers and the MBSIA after commencement of the project. These are presented in detail in section 5 (below). The project was an initiative of the MBSIA, primarily in response to falling profitability in the Moreton Bay prawn trawl fishery. The analyses were undertaken by a consortium of DAFF, CSIRO and University of Queensland researchers. This report adopted the Australian Standard Fish Names (http://www.fishnames.com.au/). Trends in catch and effort The Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery is a multispecies fishery, with the majority of the catch composed of Greasyback Prawns (Metapenaeus bennettae), Brown Tiger Prawns (Penaeus esculentus), Eastern King Prawns (Melicertus plebejus), squid (Uroteuthis spp., Sepioteuthis spp.), Banana Prawns (Fenneropenaeus merguiensis), Endeavour Prawns (Metapenaeus ensis, Metapenaeus endeavouri) and Moreton Bay bugs (Thenus parindicus). Other commercially important byproduct includes blue swimmer crabs (Portunus armatus), three-spot crabs (Portunus sanguinolentus), cuttlefish (Sepia spp.) and mantis shrimp (Oratosquilla spp.). Logbook catch and effort data show that total annual reported catch of prawns from the Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery has declined to 315 t in 2008 from a maximum of 901 t in 1990. The number of active licensed vessels participating in the fishery has also declined from 207 in 1991 to 57 in 2010. Similarly, fishing effort has fallen from a peak of 13,312 boat-days in 1999 to 3817 boat-days in 2008 – a 71% reduction. The declines in catch and effort are largely attributed to reduced profitability in the fishery due to increased operational costs and depressed prawn prices. The low prawn prices appear to be attributed to Australian aquacultured prawns and imported aquacultured vannamei prawns, displacing the markets for trawl-caught prawns, especially small species such as Greasyback Prawns which traditionally dominated landings in Moreton Bay. In recent years, the relatively high Australian dollar has resulted in reduced exports of Australian wild-caught prawns. This has increased supply on the domestic market which has also suppressed price increases. Since 2002, Brown Tiger Prawns have dominated annual reported landings in the Moreton Bay fishery. While total catch and effort in the bay have declined to historically low levels, the annual catch and catch rates of Brown Tiger Prawns have been at record highs in recent years. This appears to be at least partially attributed to the tiger prawn stock having recovered from excessive effort in previous decades. The total annual value of the Moreton Bay trawl fishery catch, including byproduct, is about $5 million, of which Brown Tiger Prawns account for about $2 million. Eastern King Prawns make up about 10% of the catch and are mainly caught in the bay from October to December as they migrate to offshore waters outside the bay where they contribute to a large mono-specific trawl fishery. Some of the Eastern King Prawns harvested in Moreton Bay may be growth overfished (i.e., caught below the size required to maximise yield or value), although the optimum size-at-capture was not determined in this study. Banana Prawns typically make up about 5% of the catch, but can exceed 20%, particularly following heavy rainfall. Economic analysis of the fishery From the economic survey, cash profits were, on average, positive for both fleet segments in both years of the survey. However, after the opportunity cost of capital and depreciation were taken into account, the residual owner-operator income was relatively low, and substantially lower than the average share of revenue paid to employed skippers. Consequently, owner-operators were earning less than their opportunity cost of their labour, suggesting that the fleets were economically unviable in the longer term. The M2 licensed fleet were, on average, earning similar boat cash profits as the T1/M1 fleet, although after the higher capital costs were accounted for the T1/M1 boats were earning substantially lower returns to owner-operator labour. The mean technical efficiency for the fleet as a whole was estimated to be 0.67. That is, on average, the boats were only catching 67 per cent of what was possible given their level of inputs (hours fished and hull units). Almost one-quarter of observations had efficiency scores above 0.8, suggesting a substantial proportion of the fleet are relatively efficient, but some are also relatively inefficient. Both fleets had similar efficiency distributions, with median technical efficiency score of 0.71 and 0.67 for the M2 and T1/M1 boats respectively. These scores are reasonably consistent with other studies of prawn trawl fleets in Australia, although higher average efficiency scores were found in the NSW prawn trawl fleet. From the inefficiency model, several factors were found to significantly influence vessel efficiency. These included the number of years of experience as skipper, the number of generations that the skipper’s family had been fishing and the number of years schooling. Skippers with more schooling were significantly more efficient than skippers with lower levels of schooling, consistent with other studies. Skippers who had been fishing longer were, in fact, less efficient than newer skippers. However, this was mitigated in the case of skippers whose family had been involved in fishing for several generations, consistent with other studies and suggesting that skill was passed through by families over successive generations. Both the linear and log-linear regression models of total fishing effort against the marginal profit per hour performed reasonably well, explaining between 70 and 84 per cent of the variation in fishing effort. As the models had different dependent variables (one logged and the other not logged) this is not a good basis for model choice. A better comparator is the square root of the mean square error (SMSE) expressed as a percentage of the mean total effort. On this criterion, both models performed very similarly. The linear model suggests that each additional dollar of average profits per hour in the fishery increases total effort by around 26 hours each month. From the log linear model, each percentage increase in profits per hour increases total fishing effort by 0.13 per cent. Both models indicate that economic performance is a key driver of fishing effort in the fishery. The effect of removing the boat-replacement policy is to increase individual vessel profitability, catch and effort, but the overall increase in catch is less than that removed by the boats that must exit the fishery. That is, the smaller fleet (in terms of boat numbers) is more profitable but the overall catch is not expected to be greater than before. This assumes, however, that active boats are removed, and that these were also taking an average level of catch. If inactive boats are removed, then catch of the remaining group as a whole could increase by between 14 and 17 per cent depending on the degree to which costs are reduced with the new boats. This is still substantially lower than historical levels of catch by the fleet. Fishing power analyses An analysis of logbook data from 1988 to 2010, and survey information on fishing gear, was performed to estimate the long-term variation in the fleet’s ability to catch prawns (known as fishing power) and to derive abundance estimates of the three most commercially important prawn species (i.e., Brown Tiger, Eastern King and Greasyback Prawns). Generalised linear models were used to explain the variation in catch as a function of effort (i.e., hours fished per day), vessel and gear characteristics, onboard technologies, population abundance and environmental factors. This analysis estimated that fishing power associated with Brown Tiger and Eastern King Prawns increased over the past 20 years by 10–30% and declined by approximately 10% for greasybacks. The density of tiger prawns was estimated to have almost tripled from around 0.5 kg per hectare in 1988 to 1.5 kg/ha in 2010. The density of Eastern King Prawns was estimated to have fluctuated between 1 and 2 kg per hectare over this time period, without any noticeable overall trend, while Greasyback Prawn densities were estimated to have fluctuated between 2 and 6 kg per hectare, also without any distinctive trend. A model of tiger prawn catches was developed to evaluate the impact of fishing on prawn survival rates in Moreton Bay. The model was fitted to logbook data using the maximum-likelihood method to provide estimates of the natural mortality rate (0.038 and 0.062 per week) and catchability (which can be defined as the proportion of the fished population that is removed by one unit of effort, in this case, estimated to be 2.5 ± 0.4 E-04 per boat-day). This approach provided a method for industry and scientists to develop together a realistic model of the dynamics of the fishery. Several aspects need to be developed further to make this model acceptable to industry. Firstly, there is considerable evidence to suggest that temperature influences prawn catchability. This ecological effect should be incorporated before developing meaningful harvest strategies. Secondly, total effort has to be allocated between each species. Such allocation of effort could be included in the model by estimating several catchability coefficients. Nevertheless, the work presented in this report is a stepping stone towards estimating essential fishery parameters and developing representative mathematical models required to evaluate harvest strategies. Developing a method that allowed an effective discussion between industry, management and scientists took longer than anticipated. As a result, harvest strategy evaluations were preliminary and only included the most valuable species in the fishery, Brown Tiger Prawns. Additional analyses and data collection, including information on catch composition from field sampling, migration rates and recruitment, would improve the modelling. Harvest strategy evaluations As the harvest strategy evaluations are preliminary, the following results should not be adopted for management purposes until more thorough evaluations are performed. The effects, of closing the fishery for one calendar month, on the annual catch and value of Brown Tiger Prawns were investigated. Each of the 12 months (i.e., January to December) was evaluated. The results were compared against historical records to determine the magnitude of gain or loss associated with the closure. Uncertainty regarding the trawl selectivity was addressed using two selectivity curves, one with a weight at 50% selection (S50%) of 7 g, based on research data, and a second with S50% of 14 g, put forward by industry. In both cases, it was concluded that any monthly closure after February would not be beneficial to the industry. The magnitude of the benefit of closing the fishery in either January or February was sensitive to which mesh selectivity curve that was assumed, with greater benefit achieved when the smaller selectivity curve (i.e., S50% = 7 g) was assumed. Using the smaller selectivity (S50% = 7 g), the expected increase in catch value was 10–20% which equates to $200,000 to $400,000 annually, while the larger selectivity curve (S50% = 14 g) suggested catch value would be improved by 5–10%, or $100,000 to $200,000. The harvest strategy evaluations showed that greater benefits, in the order of 30–60% increases in the tiger annual catch value, could have been obtained by closing the fishery early in the year when annual effort levels were high (i.e., > 10,000 boat-days). In recent years, as effort levels have declined (i.e., ~4000 boat-days annually), expected benefits from such closures are more modest. In essence, temporal closures offer greater benefit when fishing mortality rates are high. A spatial analysis of Brown Tiger Prawn catch and effort was also undertaken to obtain a better understanding of the prawn population dynamics. This indicated that, to improve profitability of the fishery, fishers could consider closing the fishery in the period from June to October, which is already a period of low profitability. This would protect the Brown Tiger Prawn spawning stock, increase catch rates of all species in the lucrative pre-Christmas period (November–December), and provide fishers with time to do vessel maintenance, arrange markets for the next season’s harvest, and, if they wish, work at other jobs. The analysis found that the instantaneous rate of total mortality (Z) for the March–June period did not vary significantly over the last two decades. As the Brown Tiger Prawn population in Moreton Bay has clearly increased over this time period, an interesting conclusion is that the instantaneous rate of natural mortality (M) must have increased, suggesting that tiger prawn natural mortality may be density-dependent at this time of year. Mortality rates of tiger prawns for June–October were found to have decreased over the last two decades, which has probably had a positive effect on spawning stocks in the October–November spawning period. Abiotic effects on the prawns The influence of air temperature, rainfall, freshwater flow, the southern oscillation index (SOI) and lunar phase on the catch rates of the four main prawn species were investigated. The analyses were based on over 200,000 daily logbook catch records over 23 years (i.e., 1988–2010). Freshwater flow was more influential than rainfall and SOI, and of the various sources of flow, the Brisbane River has the greatest volume and influence on Moreton Bay prawn catches. A number of time-lags were also considered. Flow in the preceding month prior to catch (i.e., 30 days prior, Logflow1_30) and two months prior (31–60 days prior, Logflow31_60) had strong positive effects on Banana Prawn catch rates. Average air temperature in the preceding 4-6 months (Temp121_180) also had a large positive effect on Banana Prawn catch rates. Flow in the month immediately preceding catch (Logflow1_30) had a strong positive influence on Greasyback Prawn catch rates. Air temperature in the preceding two months prior to catch (Temp1_60) had a large positive effect on Brown Tiger Prawn catch rates. No obvious or marked effects were detected for Eastern King Prawns, although interestingly, catch rates declined with increasing air temperature 4–6 months prior to catch. As most Eastern King Prawn catches in Moreton Bay occur in October to December, the results suggest catch rates decline with increasing winter temperatures. In most cases, the prawn catch rates declined with the waxing lunar phase (high luminance/full moon), and increased with the waning moon (low luminance/new moon). The SOI explains little additional variation in prawn catch rates (~ <2%), although its influence was higher for Banana Prawns. Extrapolating findings of the analyses to long-term climate change effects should be interpreted with caution. That said, the results are consistent with likely increases in abundance in the region for the two tropical species, Banana Prawns and Brown Tiger Prawns, as coastal temperatures rise. Conversely, declines in abundance could be expected for the two temperate species, Greasyback and Eastern King Prawns. Corporate management structures An examination of alternative governance systems was requested by the industry at one of the early meetings, particularly systems that may give them greater autonomy in decision making as well as help improve the marketing of their product. Consequently, a review of alternative management systems was undertaken, with a particular focus on the potential for self-management of small fisheries (small in terms of number of participants) and corporate management. The review looks at systems that have been implemented or proposed for other small fisheries internationally, with a particular focus on self-management as well as the potential benefits and challenges for corporate management. This review also highlighted particular opportunities for the Moreton Bay prawn fishery. Corporate management differs from other co-management and even self-management arrangements in that ‘ownership’ of the fishery is devolved to a company in which fishers and government are shareholders. The company manages the fishery as well as coordinates marketing to ensure that the best prices are received and that the catch taken meets the demands of the market. Coordinated harvesting will also result in increased profits, which are returned to fishers in the form of dividends. Corporate management offers many of the potential benefits of an individual quota system without formally implementing such a system. A corporate management model offers an advantage over a self-management model in that it can coordinate both marketing and management to take advantage of this unique geographical advantage. For such a system to be successful, the fishery needs to be relatively small and self- contained. Small in this sense is in terms of number of operators. The Moreton Bay prawn fishery satisfies these key conditions for a successful self-management and potentially corporate management system. The fishery is small both in terms of number of participants and geography. Unlike other fisheries that have progressed down the self-management route, the key market for the product from the Moreton Bay fishery is right at its doorstep. Corporate management also presents a number of challenges. First, it will require changes in the way fishers operate. In particular, the decision on when to fish and what to catch will be taken away from the individual and decided by the collective. Problems will develop if individuals do not join the corporation but continue to fish and market their own product separately. While this may seem an attractive option to fishers who believe they can do better independently, this is likely to be just a short- term advantage with an overall long-run cost to themselves as well as the rest of the industry. There are also a number of other areas that need further consideration, particularly in relation to the allocation of shares, including who should be allocated shares (e.g. just boat owners or also some employed skippers). Similarly, how harvesting activity is to be allocated by the corporation to the fishers. These are largely issues that cannot be answered without substantial consultation with those likely to be affected, and these groups cannot give these issues serious consideration until the point at which they are likely to become a reality. Given the current structure and complexity of the fishery, it is unlikely that such a management structure will be feasible in the short term. However, the fishery is a prime candidate for such a model, and development of such a management structure in the future should be considered as an option for the longer term.

Fluid dynamics of the monsoon

The monsoonal regions of the world are characterized by a seasonal reversal in the direction of winds associated with the excursion of the equatorial trough (or the ITCZ) in response to the variation in the latitude of maximum insolation. This monsoonal circulation is a planetary scale phenomenon. However, the associated precipitation is critically dependent on the organization of the cumulus clouds (typically a few kilometers in horizontal extent) over the scale of synoptic vortices (typically a few hundred kilometers in horizontal extent). Thus modelling of the seasonal transitions and intraseasonal fluctuations requires an understanding of the fluid mechanics of these three scales of organizations and their interactions. The present paper is an attempt to outline the current state of understanding of these phenomena.

Tree mortality and deadwood dynamics in late-successional boreal forests

Here I aimed at quantifying the main components of deadwood dynamics, i.e. tree mortality, deadwood pools, and their decomposition, in late-successional boreal forests. I focused on standing dead trees in three stand types dominated by Picea mariana and Abies balsamea in eastern Canada, and on standing and down dead trees in Picea abies-dominated stands in three areas in Northern Europe. Dead and living trees were measured on five sample plots of 1.6-ha size in each study area and stand type. Stem disks from dead trees were sampled to determine wood density and year of death, using dendrochronological methods. The results were applied to reconstruct past tree mortality and to model deadwood decay class dynamics. Site productivity, stand developmental stage, and the occurrence of episodic tree mortality influenced deadwood volume and quality. In all study areas tree mortality was continuous, leading to continuity in deadwood decay stage distribution. Episodic tree mortality due to either autogenic or allogenic causes influenced deadwood volume and quality in all but one study area. However, regardless of productivity and disturbance history deadwood was abundant, accounting for 20 53% of total wood volume in European study areas, and 15 27% of total standing volume in eastern Canada. Deadwood was a persistent structural component, since its expected residence time in early- and midstages of decay was 18 yr even in the area with the most rapid decomposition. The results indicated that in the absence of episodic tree mortality, stands may eventually develop to a steady state, in which deadwood volume fluctuates around an equilibrium state. However, in many forests deadwood is naturally variable, due to recurrent moderate-severity disturbances. This variability, the continuous tree mortality, and variation in rates of wood decomposition determine the dynamics and availability of deadwood as a habitat and carbon storage medium in boreal coniferous forest ecosystems.

Fen ecosystem carbon gas dynamics in changing hydrological conditions

Northern peatlands are thought to store one third of all soil carbon (C). Besides the C sink function, peatlands are one of the largest natural sources of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere. Climate change may affect the C gas dynamics as well as the labile C pool. Because the peatland C sequestration and CH4 emissions are governed by high water levels, changes in hydrology are seen as the driving factor in peatland ecosystem change. This study aimed to quantify the carbon dioxide (CO2) and CH4 dynamics of a fen ecosystem at different spatial scales: plant community components scale, plant community scale and ecosystem scale, under hydrologically normal and water level drawdown conditions. C gas exchange was measured in two fens in southern Finland applying static chamber and eddy covariance techniques. During hydrologically normal conditions, the ecosystem was a CO2 sink and CH4 source to the atmosphere. Sphagnum mosses and sedges were the most important contributors to the community photosynthesis. The presence of sedges had a major positive impact on CH4 emissions while dwarf shrubs had a slightly attenuating impact. C fluxes varied considerably between the plant communities. Therefore, their proportions determined the ecosystem scale fluxes. An experimental water level drawdown markedly reduced the photosynthesis and respiration of sedges and Sphagnum mosses and benefited shrubs. Consequently, changes were smaller at the ecosystem scale than at the plant group scale. The decrease in photosynthesis and the increase in respiration, mostly peat respiration, made the fen a smaller CO2 sink. CH4 fluxes were significantly lowered, close to zero. The impact of natural droughts was similar to, although more modest than, the impact of the experimental water level drawdown. The results are applicable to the short term impacts of the water level drawdown and to climatic conditions in which droughts become more frequent.

Ecological restoration of forests in Fennoscandia : Defining reference stand structures and immediate effects of restoration.

The first aim of this thesis was to explore the structural characteristics of near-natural forests and to quantify how human utilization has changed them. For this, we examined the stand characteristics in Norway spruce Picea abies (L.) Karst-dominated old-growth stands in northwestern Russia and in old Scots pine Pinus sylvestris L.-dominated stands in three regions from southern Finland to northwestern Russia. In the second study, we also compared stands with different degrees of human impact, from near-natural stands and stands selectively cut in the past to managed stands. Secondly, we used an experimental approach to study the short-term effects of different restorative treatments on forest structure and regeneration in managed Picea abies stands in southern Finland. Restorative treatments consisted of a partial cut combined with three levels of coarse woody debris retention, and a fire/no-fire treatment. In addition, we examined burned and unburned reference stands without cutting treatments. Results from near-natural Picea abies forests emphasize the dynamic character of old-growth forests, the variety of late-successional forest structures, and the fact that extended time periods are needed to attain certain late-successional stages with specific structural and habitat attributes, such as large-diameter deciduous trees and a variety of deadwood. The results from old Pinus sylvestris-dominated forests showed that human impact in the form of forest utilization and fire exclusion has strongly modified and reduced the structural complexity of stands. Consequently, small protected forest fragments in Finland may not serve as valid natural reference areas for forest restoration. However, results from the restoration experiment showed that early-successional natural stand characteristics can be restored to structurally impoverished managed Picea abies stands, despite a significant portion of wood volume being harvested. A variety of restoration methods is needed, due to differences in the condition of the forest when restoration is initiated and the variety of successional stages of forest structures after anthropogenic and natural disturbances. Keywords: dead wood, disturbance dynamic, fire, near-natural stand, rehabilitation, succession