934 resultados para Early warning system


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Southern China, especially Yunnan, has undergone high tectonic activity caused by the uplift of Himalayan Mountains during the Neogene, which led to a fast changing palaeogeography. Previous study shows that Southern China has been influenced by the Asian Monsoon since at least the Early Miocene. However, it is yet not well understood how intense the Miocene monsoon system was. In the present study, 63 fossil floras of 16 localities from Southern China are compiled and evaluated for obtaining available information concerning floristic composition, stratigraphic age, sedimentology, etc. Based on such reliable information, selected mega- and micro-floras have been analysed with the coexistence approach to obtain quantitative palaeoclimate data. Visualization of climate results in maps shows a distinct spatial differentiation in Southern China during the Miocene. Higher seasonalities of temperature and precipitation occur in the north and south parts of Southern China, respectively. During the Miocene, most regions of Southern China and Europe were both warm and humid. Central Eurasia was likely to be an arid center, which gradually spread westward and eastward. Our data provide information about Miocene climate patterns in Southern China and about the evolution of these patterns throughout the Miocene, and is also crucial to unravel and understand the climatic signals of global cooling and tectonic uplift.

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Sparse terrestrial palynomorphs (spores and pollen) were recovered from glacigene Lower Miocene and Oligocene core samples from the Cape Roberts Project (CRP) drillhole CRP-2/2A, Victoria Land Basin, Antarctica. Rarity of palynomorphs probably results from the spares periglacial vegetation in the surrounding landscape at the time of deposition, as well as dilution from rapid sediment accumulation. The Miocene and Late Oligocene vegetation is interpreted as including herb-moss tundra with low-growing woody plants (including Nothofagus and podocarp conifers) in more protected areas, similar to that encountered in the Miocene of CRP-1. Species richness and numbers of specimens increase downhole, a trend that begins very gradually below ~307 mbsf, and increases below ~443 mbsf through the Early Oligocene. These lower assemblages reflect low diversity woody vegetation dominated by several species of Nofhofagus and podocarps, growing in somewhat milder conditions, though still cold temperate to periglacial in the Early Oligocene. The CRP-2/2A core provides new biostratigraphical information, such as the First Appearance Datums (FADS) of Tricolpites sp. a near the Oligocene/Miocene boundary, and Marchantiaceae in the Early/Late Oligocene transition: these are taxa that along with N. lachlaniae, Coptospora spp. and Podocarpidites sp.b characterize assemblages recovered from outcrops of the Pliocene Sirius Group in the Transantarctic Mountains. Some elements of the extremely hardy periglacial tundra vegetation that survived in Antarctica into the Pliocene had their origin in the Oligocene during a time of deteriorating (colder, drier) climatic conditions. The CRP results highlight the long persistence of this tundra vegetation, through approximately 30 million years of dynamically changing climatic conditions. Rare Jurassic and more common Permian-Triassic spores and pollen occur sporadically throughout the core. These are derived from Jurassic Ferrar Group sediments, and from the Permian-Triassic Victoria Group, upper Beacon Supergroup. Higher frequencies of reworked Beacon palynomorphs and coaly organic matter below ~307 mbsf indicate greater erosion of the Beacon Supergroup for this lower part of the core. A color range from black, severely metamorphosed specimens, to light-colored, yellow (indicating low thermal alteration), reworked Permian palynomorphs, indicates local provenance in the dolerite-intruded Beacon strata of the Transantarctic Mountains, as well as areas (now sub-ice) of Beacon strata with little or no associated dolerite well inland (cratonwards) of the present Transantarctic Mountains.

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The middle Miocene delta18O increase represents a fundamental change in the ocean-atmosphere system which, like late Pleistocene climates, may be related to deepwater circulation patterns. There has been some debate concerning the early to early middle Miocene deepwater circulation patterns. Specifically, recent discussions have focused on the relative roles of Northern Component Water (NCW) production and warm, saline deep water originating in the eastern Tethys. Our time series and time slice reconstructions indicate that NCW and Tethyan outflow water, two relatively warm deepwater masses, were produced from ~20 to 16 Ma. NCW was produced again from 12.5 to 10.5 Ma. Another feature of the early and middle Miocene oceans was the presence of a high delta13C intermediate water mass in the southern hemisphere, which apparently originated in the Southern Ocean. Miocene climates appear to be related directly to deepwater circulation changes. Deep-waters warmed in the early Miocene by ~3°C (?20 to 16 Ma) and cooled by a similar amount during the middle Miocene delta18O increase (14.8 to 12.6 Ma), corresponding to the increase (?20 Ma) and subsequent decrease (~16 Ma) in the production of NCW and Tethyan outflow water. Large (>0.6 per mil), relatively rapid (~0.5 m.y.) delta18O increases in both benthic and planktonic foraminifera (i.e., the Mi zones of Miller et al. (1991a) and Wright and Miller (1992a)) were superimposed in the long-term deepwater temperature changes; they are interpreted as reflecting continental ice growth events. Seven of these m.y. glacial/interglacial cycles have been recognized in the early to middle Miocene. Two of these glacial/interglacial cycles (Mi3 and Mi4) combined with a 2° to 3°C decrease in deepwater temperatures to produce the middle Miocene delta18O shift.

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The Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW) have been suggested to exert a critical influence on global climate through wind-driven upwelling of deep water in the Southern Ocean and the potentially resulting atmospheric CO2 variations. The investigation of the temporal and spatial evolution of the SWW along with forcings and feedbacks remains a significant challenge in climate research. In this study, the evolution of the SWW under orbital forcing from the early Holocene (9 kyr BP) to pre-industrial modern times is examined with transient experiments using the comprehensive coupled global climate model CCSM3. Analyses of the model results suggest that the annual and seasonal mean SWW were subject to an overall strengthening and poleward shifting trend during the course of the early-to-late Holocene under the influence of orbital forcing, except for the austral spring season, where the SWW exhibited an opposite trend of shifting towards the equator.

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The potential effects of elevated CO2 level and reduced carbonate saturation state in marine environment on fishes and other non-calcified organisms are still poorly known. In present study, we investigated the effects of ocean acidification on embryogenesis and organogenesis of newly hatched larvae of marine medaka (Oryzias melastigma) after 21 d exposure of eggs to different artificially acidified seawater (pH 7.6 and 7.2, respectively), and compared with those in control group (pH 8.2). Results showed that CO2-driven seawater acidification (pH 7.6 and 7.2) had no detectable effect on hatching time, hatching rate, and heart rate of embryos. However, the deformity rate of larvae in pH 7.2 treatment was significantly higher than that in control treatment. The left and right sagitta areas did not differ significantly from each other in each treatment. However, the mean sagitta area of larvae in pH 7.6 treatment was significantly smaller than that in the control (p = 0.024). These results suggest that although marine medaka might be more tolerant of elevated CO2 than some other fishes, the effect of elevated CO2 level on the calcification of otolith is likely to be the most susceptibly physiological process of pH regulation in early life stage of marine medaka.

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Increasing atmospheric CO2 can decrease seawater pH and carbonate ions, which may adversely affect the larval survival of calcareous animals. In this study, we simulated future atmospheric CO2 concentrations (800, 1500, 2000 and 3000 ppm) and examined the effects of ocean acidification on the early development of 3 mollusks (the abalones Haliotis diversicolor and H. discus hannai and the oyster Crassostrea angulata). We showed that fertilization rate, hatching rate, larval shell length, trochophore development, veliger survival and metamorphosis all decreased significantly at different pCO2 levels (except oyster hatching). H. discus hannai were more tolerant of high CO2 compared to H. diversicolor. At 2000 ppm CO2, 79.2% of H. discus hannai veliger larvae developed normally, but only 13.3% of H. diversicolor veliger larvae. Tolerance of C. angulata to ocean acidification was greater than the 2 abalone species; 50.5% of its D-larvae developed normally at 3000 ppm CO2. This apparent resistance of C. angulata to ocean acidification may be attributed to their adaptability to estuarine environments. Mechanisms underlying the resistance to ocean acidification of both abalones requires further investigation. Our results suggest that ocean acidification may decrease the yield of these 3 economically important shellfish if increasing CO2 is a future trend.

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We tested the hypothesis that development of the Antarctic urchin Sterechinus neumayeri under future ocean conditions of warming and acidification would incur physiological costs, reducing the tolerance of a secondary stressor. The aim of this study is twofold: (1) quantify current austral spring temperature and pH near sea urchin habitat at Cape Evans in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica and (2) spawn S. neumayeri in the laboratory and raise early developmental stages (EDSs) under ambient (-0.7 °C; 400 µatm pCO2) and future (+2.6 °C; 650 and 1,000 µatm pCO2) ocean conditions and expose four EDSs (blastula, gastrula, prism, and 4-arm echinopluteus) to a one hour acute heat stress and assess survivorship. Results of field data from 2011 to 2012 show extremely stable inter-annual pH conditions ranging from 7.99 to 8.08, suggesting that future ocean acidification will drastically alter the pH-seascape for S. neumayeri. In the laboratory, S. neumayeri EDSs appear to be tolerant of temperatures and pCO2 levels above their current habitat conditions. EDSs survived acute heat exposures >20 °C above habitat temperatures of -1.9 °C. No pCO2 effect was observed for EDSs reared at -0.7 °C. When reared at +2.6 °C, small but significant pCO2 effects were observed at the blastula and prism stage, suggesting that multiple stressors are more detrimental than single stressors. While surprisingly tolerant overall, blastulae were the most sensitive stage to ocean warming and acidification. We conclude that S. neumayeri may be unexpectedly physiologically tolerant of future ocean conditions.

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Alkenone sea surface temperature (SST) records were generated from the Ocean Drilling Program's (ODP) Sites 1014 and 1016 to examine the response of the California Current System to global climate change during the last 136 ka. The temperature differences between these sites (Delta SST(NEP)=SST(ODP1014)-SST(ODP1016)) reflected the intensity of the California Current and varied between 0.4 and 6.1 °C. A high Delta SST(NEP) (weaker California Current) was found for late marine isotope stage (MIS) 2 and early MIS 5e, while a low Delta SST(NEP) (stronger California Current) was detected for mid-MIS 5e and MIS 1. Spectral analysis indicated that this variation pattern dominated 23- (precession) and 30-ka periods. Comparison of the Delta SST(NEP) and SST based on data from core MD01-2421 at the Japan margin revealed anti-phase variation; the high Delta SST(NEP) (weakening of the California Current) corresponded to the low SST at the Japan margin (the southward displacement of the NW Pacific subarctic boundary), and vice versa. This variation was synchronous with a model prediction of the tropical El Niño-Southern Oscillation behavior. These findings suggest that the intensity of the North Pacific High varied in response to precessional forcing, and also that the response has been linked with the changes of tropical ocean-atmosphere interactions.

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Land-based aquaculture facilities often utilize additional bicarbonate sources such as commercial sea salts that are designed to boost alkalinity in order to buffer seawater against reductions in pH. Despite these preventative measures, many facilities are likely to face occasional reductions in pH and corresponding reductions in carbonate saturation states due to the accumulation of metabolic waste products. We investigated the impact of reduced carbonate saturation states (Omega Ca, Omega Ar) on embryonic developmental rates, larval developmental rates, and echinoplutei skeletal morphometrics in the common edible sea urchin Lytechinus variegatus under high alkalinity conditions. Commercial artificial seawater was bubbled with a mixture of air and CO2 gas to reduce the carbonate saturation state. Rates of embryonic and larval development were significantly delayed in both the low and extreme low carbonate saturation state groups relative to the control at a given time. Although symmetry of overall skeletal body lengths was not affected, allometric relationships were significantly different between treatment groups. Larvae reared under ambient conditions had significantly greater postoral arm and overall body lengths relative to body lengths than larvae grown under extreme low carbonate saturation state conditions, indicating that extreme changes in the carbonate system affected not only developmental rates but also larval skeletal shape. Reduced rates of embryonic development and delayed and altered larval skeletal growth are likely to negatively impact larval culturing of L. variegatus in land-based, intensive culture situations where calcite and aragonite saturation states are lowered by the accumulation of metabolic waste products.

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The effect of pH ranging from 8.0 to 6.8 (total scale - pHT) on fertilization, cleavage and larval development until pluteus stage was assessed in an intertidal temperate sea urchin. Gametes were obtained from adults collected in two contrasting tide pools, one showing a significant nocturnal pH decrease (lowest pHT = 7.4) and another where pH was more stable (lowest pHT = 7.8). The highest pHT at which significant effects on fertilization and cleavage were recorded was 7.6. On the contrary, larval development was only affected below pHT 7.4, a value equal or lower than that reported for several subtidal species. This suggests that sea urchins inhabiting stressful intertidal environments produce offspring that may better resist future ocean acidification. Moreover, at pHT 7.4, the fertilization rate of gametes whose progenitors came from the tide pool with higher pH decrease was significantly higher, indicating a possible acclimatization or adaptation of gametes to pH stress.

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Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) is being absorbed into the ocean, altering seawater chemistry, with potentially negative impacts on a wide range of marine organisms. The early life stages of invertebrates with internal and external aragonite structures may be particularly vulnerable to this ocean acidification. Impacts to cephalopods, which form aragonite cuttlebones and statoliths, are of concern because of the central role they play in many ocean ecosystems and because of their importance to global fisheries. Atlantic longfin squid (Doryteuthis pealeii), an ecologically and economically valuable taxon, were reared from eggs to hatchlings (paralarvae) under ambient and elevated CO2 concentrations in replicated experimental trials. Animals raised under elevated pCO2 demonstrated significant developmental changes including increased time to hatching and shorter mantle lengths, although differences were small. Aragonite statoliths, critical for balance and detecting movement, had significantly reduced surface area and were abnormally shaped with increased porosity and altered crystal structure in elevated pCO2-reared paralarvae. These developmental and physiological effects could alter squid paralarvae behavior and survival in the wild, directly and indirectly impacting marine food webs and commercial fisheries.

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The sustained absorption of anthropogenically released atmospheric CO2 by the oceans is modifying seawater carbonate chemistry, a process termed ocean acidification (OA). By the year 2100, the worst case scenario is a decline in the average oceanic surface seawater pH by 0.3 units to 7.75. The changing seawater carbonate chemistry is predicted to negatively affect many marine species, particularly calcifying organisms such as coralline algae, while species such as diatoms and fleshy seaweed are predicted to be little affected or may even benefit from OA. It has been hypothesized in previous work that the direct negative effects imposed on coralline algae, and the direct positive effects on fleshy seaweeds and diatoms under a future high CO2 ocean could result in a reduced ability of corallines to compete with diatoms and fleshy seaweed for space in the future. In a 6-week laboratory experiment, we examined the effect of pH 7.60 (pH predicted to occur due to ocean acidification just beyond the year 2100) compared to pH 8.05 (present day) on the lateral growth rates of an early successional, cold-temperate species assemblage dominated by crustose coralline algae and benthic diatoms. Crustose coralline algae and benthic diatoms maintained positive growth rates in both pH treatments. The growth rates of coralline algae were three times lower at pH 7.60, and a non-significant decline in diatom growth meant that proportions of the two functional groups remained similar over the course of the experiment. Our results do not support our hypothesis that benthic diatoms will outcompete crustose coralline algae under future pH conditions. However, while crustose coralline algae were able to maintain their presence in this benthic rocky reef species assemblage, the reduced growth rates suggest that they will be less capable of recolonizing after disturbance events, which could result in reduced coralline cover under OA conditions.

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As a result of high anthropogenic CO2 emissions, the concentration of CO2 in the oceans has increased, causing a decrease in pH, known as ocean acidification (OA). Numerous studies have shown negative effects on marine invertebrates, and also that the early life stages are the most sensitive to OA. We studied the effects of OA on embryos and unfed larvae of the great scallop (Pecten maximus Lamarck), at pCO(2) levels of 469 (ambient), 807, 1164, and 1599 µatm until seven days after fertilization. To our knowledge, this is the first study on OA effects on larvae of this species. A drop in pCO(2) level the first 12 h was observed in the elevated pCO(2) groups due to a discontinuation in water flow to avoid escape of embryos. When the flow was restarted, pCO(2) level stabilized and was significantly different between all groups. OA affected both survival and shell growth negatively after seven days. Survival was reduced from 45% in the ambient group to 12% in the highest pCO(2) group. Shell length and height were reduced by 8 and 15 %, respectively, when pCO(2) increased from ambient to 1599 µatm. Development of normal hinges was negatively affected by elevated pCO(2) levels in both trochophore larvae after two days and veliger larvae after seven days. After seven days, deformities in the shell hinge were more connected to elevated pCO(2) levels than deformities in the shell edge. Embryos stained with calcein showed fluorescence in the newly formed shell area, indicating calcification of the shell at the early trochophore stage between one and two days after fertilization. Our results show that P. maximus embryos and early larvae may be negatively affected by elevated pCO(2) levels within the range of what is projected towards year 2250, although the initial drop in pCO(2) level may have overestimated the effect of the highest pCO(2) levels. Future work should focus on long-term effects on this species from hatching, throughout the larval stages, and further into the juvenile and adult stages.

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The present study analyses the sign, strength, and working mechanism of the vegetation-precipitation feedback over North Africa in middle (6 ka BP) and early Holocene (9 ka BP) simulations using the comprehensive coupled climate-vegetation model CCSM3-DGVM (Community Climate System Model version 3 and a dynamic global vegetation model). The coupled model simulates enhanced summer rainfall and a northward migration of the West African monsoon trough along with an expansion of the vegetation cover for the early and middle Holocene compared to the pre-industrial period. It is shown that dynamic vegetation enhances the orbitally triggered summer precipitation anomaly by approximately 20% in the Sahara-Sahel region (10-25° N, 20° W-30° E) in both the early and mid-Holocene experiments compared to their fixed-vegetation counterparts. The primary vegetation-rainfall feedback identified here operates through surface latent heat flux anomalies by canopy evaporation and transpiration and their effect on the mid-tropospheric African easterly jet, whereas the effects of vegetation changes on surface albedo and local water recycling play a negligible role. Even though CCSM3-DGVM simulates a positive vegetation-precipitation feedback in the North African region, this feedback is not strong enough to produce multiple equilibrium climate-ecosystem states on a regional scale.

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As the world's oceans continue to absorb anthropogenic CO2 from the atmosphere, the carbonate chemistry of seawater will change. This process, termed ocean acidification, may affect the physiology of marine organisms. Arctic seas are expected to experience the greatest decreases in pH in the future, as changing sea ice dynamics and naturally cold, brackish water, will accelerate ocean acidification. In this study, we investigated the effect of increased pCO2 on the early developmental stages of the key Arctic copepod Calanus glacialis. Eggs from wild-caught C. glacialis females from Svalbard, Norway (80°N), were cultured for 2 months to copepodite stage C1 in 2°C seawater under four pCO2 treatments (320, 530, 800, and 1700 ?atm). Developmental rate, dry weight, and carbon and nitrogen mass were measured every other day throughout the experiment, and oxygen consumption rate was measured at stages N3, N6, and C1. All endpoints were unaffected by pCO2 levels projected for the year 2300. These results indicate that naupliar development in wild populations of C. glacialis is unlikely to be detrimentally affected in a future high CO2 ocean.