CO2 emissions and economic activity: heterogeneity across countries and non stationary series

This paper explores the homogeneity of the functional form, the parameters, and the turning point, when appropriate, of the relationship between CO2 emissions and economic activity for 31 countries (28 OECD, Brazil, China, and India) during the period 1950 to 2006 using cointegration analysis. With a sample highly overlapped over time between countries, the result reveals that the homogeneity across countries is rejected, both in functional form and in the parameters of long term relationship. This confirms the relevance of considering the heterogeneity in exploring the relationship between air pollution and economic activity to avoid spurious parameter estimates and infer a wrong behavior of the functional form, which could lead to induce that the relationship is reversed when in fact it is direct.

Economic growth and inequality: the role of fiscal policies

This paper analyses the impact of different instruments of fiscal policy on economic growth as well as on income inequality, using an unbalanced panel of 43 upper-middle and high income countries for the period 1972-2006. We consider and estimate two individual equations explaining growth and inequality in order to assess the incidence of different fiscal policies. Firstly, our approach considers imposing orthogonal assumptions between growth and inequality in both equations, and secondly, it allows growth to be included in the inequality equation, and inequality to be included in the growth equation. The empirical results suggest that an increase in the size of government measured through current expenditures and direct taxes diminishes economic growth while reducing inequality, being public investment the only fiscal policy that may break this trade-off between efficiency and equity, since increases in this item reduces inequality without harming output. Therefore, the results reflect that the trade-off between efficiency and equity that governments often confront when designing their fiscal policies may be avoided.

Policy evaluation and uncertainty about the effects of oil prices on economic activity

This paper addresses the issue of policy evaluation in a context in which policymakers are uncertain about the effects of oil prices on economic performance. I consider models of the economy inspired by Solow (1980), Blanchard and Gali (2007), Kim and Loungani (1992) and Hamilton (1983, 2005), which incorporate different assumptions on the channels through which oil prices have an impact on economic activity. I first study the characteristics of the model space and I analyze the likelihood of the different specifications. I show that the existence of plausible alternative representations of the economy forces the policymaker to face the problem of model uncertainty. Then, I use the Bayesian approach proposed by Brock, Durlauf and West (2003, 2007) and the minimax approach developed by Hansen and Sargent (2008) to integrate this form of uncertainty into policy evaluation. I find that, in the environment under analysis, the standard Taylor rule is outperformed under a number of criteria by alternative simple rules in which policymakers introduce persistence in the policy instrument and respond to changes in the real price of oil.

Stochastic time-concentration activity models for cytotoxicity in 3D brain cell cultures.

BACKGROUND: In vitro aggregating brain cell cultures containing all types of brain cells have been shown to be useful for neurotoxicological investigations. The cultures are used for the detection of nervous system-specific effects of compounds by measuring multiple endpoints, including changes in enzyme activities. Concentration-dependent neurotoxicity is determined at several time points. METHODS: A Markov model was set up to describe the dynamics of brain cell populations exposed to potentially neurotoxic compounds. Brain cells were assumed to be either in a healthy or stressed state, with only stressed cells being susceptible to cell death. Cells may have switched between these states or died with concentration-dependent transition rates. Since cell numbers were not directly measurable, intracellular lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) activity was used as a surrogate. Assuming that changes in cell numbers are proportional to changes in intracellular LDH activity, stochastic enzyme activity models were derived. Maximum likelihood and least squares regression techniques were applied for estimation of the transition rates. Likelihood ratio tests were performed to test hypotheses about the transition rates. Simulation studies were used to investigate the performance of the transition rate estimators and to analyze the error rates of the likelihood ratio tests. The stochastic time-concentration activity model was applied to intracellular LDH activity measurements after 7 and 14 days of continuous exposure to propofol. The model describes transitions from healthy to stressed cells and from stressed cells to death. RESULTS: The model predicted that propofol would affect stressed cells more than healthy cells. Increasing propofol concentration from 10 to 100 μM reduced the mean waiting time for transition to the stressed state by 50%, from 14 to 7 days, whereas the mean duration to cellular death reduced more dramatically from 2.7 days to 6.5 hours. CONCLUSION: The proposed stochastic modeling approach can be used to discriminate between different biological hypotheses regarding the effect of a compound on the transition rates. The effects of different compounds on the transition rate estimates can be quantitatively compared. Data can be extrapolated at late measurement time points to investigate whether costs and time-consuming long-term experiments could possibly be eliminated.

Hydrocarbon biomarkers in the Topla-Mezica zinc-lead deposits, northern Karavanke/Drau Range, Slovenia: Paleoenvironment at the site of ore formation

The Mississippi Valley-type zinc and lead deposits at Topla (250,150 metric tons (t) of ore grading 1.0 wt % Zn and 3.3 wt % Pb) and Mezica (19 million metric tons (Mt) of ore grading 5.3 wt % Pb and 2.7 wt % Zn) occur within the Middle to Upper Triassic platform carbonate rocks of the northern Karavanke/Drau Range geotectonic units of the Eastern Alps, Slovenia. The ore and host rocks of these deposits have been investigated by a combination of inorganic and organic geochemical methods to determine major, trace, and rare earth element (REE) concentrations, hydrocarbon distribution, and stable isotope ratios of carbonates, kerogen, extractable organic matter, and individual hydrocarbons. These data combined with sedimentological evidence provide insight into the paleoenvironmental conditions at the site of ore formation. The carbonate isotope composition, the REE patterns, and the distribution of hydrocarbon biomarkers (normal alkanes and steranes) suggest a marine depositional environment. At Topla, a relatively high concentration of redox sensitive trace elements (V, Mo, U) in the host dolostones and REE patterns parallel to that of the North American shale composite suggest that sediments were deposited in a reducing environment. Anoxic conditions enhanced the preservation of organic matter and resulted in relatively higher total organic carbon contents (up to 0.4 wt %). The isotopic composition of the kerogen (delta C-13(kerogon) = -29.4 to -25.0 parts per thousand, delta N-15(kerogen) = -.13.6 to 6.8 parts per thousand) suggests that marine algae and/or bacteria were the main source of organic carbon with a very minor contribution from detrital continental plants and a varying degree of alteration. Extractable organic matter from Topla ore is generally depleted in C-13 compared to the associated kerogen, which is consistent with an indigenous source of the bitumens. The mineralization correlates with delta N-15(kerogen) values around 0 per mil, C-13 depleted kerogen, C-13 enriched n-heptadecane, and relatively high concentrations of bacteria] hydrocarbon biomarkers, indicating a high cyanobacterial biomass at the site of ore formation. Abundant dissimilatory sulfate-reducing bacteria, feeding on the cyanobacterial remains, led to accumulation of biogenic H2S in the pore water of the sediments. This biogenic H2S was mainly incorporated into sedimentary organic matter and diagenetic pyrite. Higher bacterial activity at the ore site also is indicated by specific concentration ratios of hydrocarbons, which are roughly correlated with total Pb plus Zn contents. This correlation is consistent with mixing of hydrothermal metal-rich, fluids and local bacteriogenic sulfide sulfur. The new geochemical data provide supporting evidence that Topla is a low-temperature Mississippi Valley-type deposit formed in an anoxic supratidal saline to hypersaline environment. A laminated cyanobacterial mat, with abundant sulfate-reducing bacteria was the main site of sulfate reduction.

Renoncement aux soins: comment appréhender cette réalité en médecine de premier recours [Patients forgoing health care for economic reasons: how to identify this in a primary care setting?].

Although the performance of the Swiss health system is high, one out of ten patients in general practitioner's (GP) office declares having foregone care in the previous twelve months for economic reasons. Reasons for foregoing care are several and include a lack of knowledge of existing social aids in getting health insurance, unavailability of GPs and long waiting lists for various types of care. Although long term knowledge of patients or a psychosocial history of deprivation or poverty may help identify individuals at risk of foregoing care, many may remain undetected. We propose then a few instruments to help GPs to identify, in a simple and structured approach, patients at risk of forgoing care for economic reasons; these patients are frequently deprived and sometimes poor.

Does the EU financing system contribute to shadow economic activity?

Financial contributions to the EU budget depend basically on official GDP. This means that countries with higher shadow economic activity contribute less than they should contribute in a system based on actual GDP and therefore could reduce their incentive to fight against such activities. In this paper we investigate if the EU financing system really has an influence on the intensity with which governments in EU member states fight against shadow economic activity. We find that the EU net contributors significantly fight more intensively against shadow economic activity while EU net receivers significantly fight less. As a result, shadow economic activity is higher in net receiver and lower in net contributor countries than it were in comparison with a scenario of nationally balanced EU funding. Quantitatively and averaged over the time period 2001-2007, the diagnosed effect amounts to a stimulation of hidden economic activity by almost 10% for particular economies. JEL classification: C31, D63, F33, H21, H26. Keywords: EU financing system, shadow economy, tax auditing.

Alveolar echinococcosis: from a deadly disease to a well-controlled infection. Relative survival and economic analysis in Switzerland over the last 35 years.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Alveolar echinococcosis (AE) is a serious liver disease. The aim of this study was to explore the long-term prognosis of AE patients, the burden of this disease in Switzerland and the cost-effectiveness of treatment. METHODS: Relative survival analysis was undertaken using a national database with 329 patient records. 155 representative cases had sufficient details regarding treatment costs and patient outcome to estimate the financial implications and treatment costs of AE. RESULTS: For an average 54-year-old patient diagnosed with AE in 1970 the life expectancy was estimated to be reduced by 18.2 and 21.3 years for men and women, respectively. By 2005 this was reduced to approximately 3.5 and 2.6 years, respectively. Patients undergoing radical surgery had a better outcome, whereas the older patients had a poorer prognosis than the younger patients. Costs amount to approximately Euro108,762 per patient. Assuming the improved life expectancy of AE patients is due to modern treatment the cost per disability-adjusted life years (DALY) saved is approximately Euro6,032. CONCLUSIONS: Current treatments have substantially improved the prognosis of AE patients compared to the 1970s. The cost per DALY saved is low compared to the average national annual income. Hence, AE treatment is highly cost-effective in Switzerland.

DETERMINE Working document #4 'Economic arguments for addressing social determinants of health inequalities'

The Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) is a partner in the European project DETERMINE, building on its previous involvement in the Closing the Gap project in 2004-2006. In Year 2 the DETERMINE project  focused on identifying and exploring economic arguments to support action on social determinants of health inequalities.  Working document #4 'Economic arguments for addressing social determinants of health inequalities' presents the findings.

Skin permeation and metabolism of di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP).

Phthalates are suspected to be endocrine disruptors. Di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) is assumed to have low dermal absorption; however, previous in vitro skin permeation studies have shown large permeation differences. Our aims were to determine DEHP permeation parameters and assess extent of skin DEHP metabolism among workers highly exposed to these lipophilic, low volatile substances. Surgically removed skin from patients undergoing abdominoplasty was immediately dermatomed (800 μm) and mounted on flow-through diffusion cells (1.77 cm(2)) operating at 32°C with cell culture media (aqueous solution) as the reservoir liquid. The cells were dosed either with neat DEHP or emulsified in aqueous solution (166 μg/ml). Samples were analysed by HPLC-MS/MS. DEHP permeated human viable skin only as the metabolite MEHP (100%) after 8h of exposure. Human skin was able to further oxidize MEHP to 5-oxo-MEHP. Neat DEHP applied to the skin hardly permeated skin while the aqueous solution readily permeated skin measured in both cases as concentration of MEHP in the receptor liquid. DEHP pass through human skin, detected as MEHP only when emulsified in aqueous solution, and to a far lesser degree when applied neat to the skin. Using results from older in vitro skin permeation studies with non-viable skin may underestimate skin exposures. Our results are in overall agreement with newer phthalate skin permeation studies.

Factors that can interfere with virus concentration from wastewater when using zeta plus 60S filter membranes

Zeta plus filter membranes (ZP60S) have been shown to be efficient for rotavirus concentration from wastewater and for the reduction of cytotoxicity for cell cultures. Recently a variability in both properties was observed. In view of the low costs and the high virus recovery rates obtained in the past, we re-evaluated the application of ZP60S filter membranes for virus concentration from environmental samples. Some factors that could interfere with the concentration strategy using ZP60S were also considered and assessed including the type of water to be filtered and the possible release of toxic substances from the membrane matrix during filtration.