Real wage rigidities and the new Keynesian model

Most central banks perceive a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing the gap between output and desired output. However, the standard new Keynesian framework implies no such trade-off. In that framework, stabilizing inflation is equivalent to stabilizing the welfare-relevant output gap. In this paper, we argue that this property of the new Keynesian framework, which we call the divine coincidence, is due to a special feature of the model: the absence of non trivial real imperfections.We focus on one such real imperfection, namely, real wage rigidities. When the baseline new Keynesian model is extended to allow for real wage rigidities, the divine coincidence disappears, and central banks indeed face a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing the welfare-relevant output gap. We show that not only does the extended model have more realistic normative implications, but it also has appealing positive properties. In particular, it provides a natural interpretation for the dynamic inflation-unemployment relation found in the data.

Revenue management under general discrete choice model of consumer behavior

Customer choice behavior, such as 'buy-up' and 'buy-down', is an importantphe-nomenon in a wide range of industries. Yet there are few models ormethodologies available to exploit this phenomenon within yield managementsystems. We make some progress on filling this void. Specifically, wedevelop a model of yield management in which the buyers' behavior ismodeled explicitly using a multi-nomial logit model of demand. Thecontrol problem is to decide which subset of fare classes to offer ateach point in time. The set of open fare classes then affects the purchaseprobabilities for each class. We formulate a dynamic program todetermine the optimal control policy and show that it reduces to a dynamicnested allocation policy. Thus, the optimal choice-based policy caneasily be implemented in reservation systems that use nested allocationcontrols. We also develop an estimation procedure for our model based onthe expectation-maximization (EM) method that jointly estimates arrivalrates and choice model parameters when no-purchase outcomes areunobservable. Numerical results show that this combined optimization-estimation approach may significantly improve revenue performancerelative to traditional leg-based models that do not account for choicebehavior.

A medium-scale open economy model of Australia

We estimate an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE)model of Australia with a number of shocks, frictions and rigidities, matching alarge number of observable time series. We find that both foreign and domesticshocks are important drivers of the Australian business cycle.We also find that theinitial impact on inflation of an increase in demand for Australian commoditiesis negative, due to an improvement in the real exchange rate, though there is apersistent positive effect on inflation that dominates at longer horizons.

Emergence of Cooperation on Static and Dynamic Networks

Game theory is a branch of applied mathematics used to analyze situation where two or more agents are interacting. Originally it was developed as a model for conflicts and collaborations between rational and intelligent individuals. Now it finds applications in social sciences, eco- nomics, biology (particularly evolutionary biology and ecology), engineering, political science, international relations, computer science, and philosophy. Networks are an abstract representation of interactions, dependencies or relationships. Net- works are extensively used in all the fields mentioned above and in many more. Many useful informations about a system can be discovered by analyzing the current state of a network representation of such system. In this work we will apply some of the methods of game theory to populations of agents that are interconnected. A population is in fact represented by a network of players where one can only interact with another if there is a connection between them. In the first part of this work we will show that the structure of the underlying network has a strong influence on the strategies that the players will decide to adopt to maximize their utility. We will then introduce a supplementary degree of freedom by allowing the structure of the population to be modified along the simulations. This modification allows the players to modify the structure of their environment to optimize the utility that they can obtain.

A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

A dynamic analysis of human welfare in a warming planet

Climate science indicates that climate stabilization requires low GHG emissions. Is thisconsistent with nondecreasing human welfare?Our welfare or utility index emphasizes education, knowledge, and the environment. Weconstruct and calibrate a multigenerational model with intertemporal links provided by education,physical capital, knowledge and the environment.We reject discounted utilitarianism and adopt, first, the Pure Sustainability Optimization (orIntergenerational Maximin) criterion, and, second, the Sustainable Growth Optimization criterion,that maximizes the utility of the first generation subject to a given future rate of growth. We applythese criteria to our calibrated model via a novel algorithm inspired by the turnpike property.The computed paths yield levels of utility higher than the level at reference year 2000 for allgenerations. They require the doubling of the fraction of labor resources devoted to the creation ofknowledge relative to the reference level, whereas the fractions of labor allocated to consumptionand leisure are similar to the reference ones. On the other hand, higher growth rates requiresubstantial increases in the fraction of labor devoted to education, together with moderate increasesin the fractions of labor devoted to knowledge and the investment in physical capital.

Dynamic and Regulated Association of Caveolin with Lipid Bodies: Modulation of Lipid Body Motility and Function by a Dominant Negative Mutant

Caveolins are a crucial component of caveolae but have also been localized to the Golgi complex, and, under some experimental conditions, to lipid bodies (LBs). The physiological relevance and dynamics of LB association remain unclear. We now show that endogenous caveolin-1 and caveolin-2 redistribute to LBs in lipid loaded A431 and FRT cells. Association with LBs is regulated and reversible; removal of fatty acids causes caveolin to rapidly leave the lipid body. We also show by subcellular fractionation, light and electron microscopy that during the first hours of liver regeneration, caveolins show a dramatic redistribution from the cell surface to the newly formed LBs. At later stages of the regeneration process (when LBs are still abundant), the levels of caveolins in LBs decrease dramatically. As a model system to study association of caveolins with LBs we have used brefeldin A (BFA). BFA causes rapid redistribution of endogenous caveolins to LBs and this association was reversed upon BFA washout. Finally, we have used a dominant negative LB-associated caveolin mutant (cavDGV) to study LB formation and to examine its effect on LB function. We now show that the cavDGV mutant inhibits microtubule-dependent LB motility and blocks the reversal of lipid accumulation in LBs.

One minute of grief: Emotional processing in short-term dynamic psychotherapy for adjustment disorder.

OBJECTIVE: Depth of emotional processing has shown to be related to outcome across approaches to psychotherapy. Moreover, a specific emotional sequence has been postulated and tested in several studies on experiential psychotherapy (Pascual-Leone & Greenberg, 2007). This process-outcome study aims at reproducing the sequential model of emotional processing in psychodynamic psychotherapy for adjustment disorder and linking these variables with ultimate therapeutic outcome. METHOD: In this study, 32 patients underwent short-term dynamic psychotherapy. On the basis of reliable clinical change statistics, a subgroup (n = 16) presented with good outcome and another subgroup (n = 16) had a poor outcome in the end of treatment. The strongest alliance session of each case was rated using the observer-rated system Classification of Affective Meaning States. Reliability coefficients for the measure were excellent (κ = .82). RESULTS: Using 1 min as the fine-grained unit of analysis, results showed that the experience of fundamentally adaptive grief was more common in the in-session process of patients with good outcome, compared with those with poor outcomes (χ2 = 6.56, p = .01, d = 1.23). This variable alone predicted 19% of the change in depressive symptoms as measured by the Beck Depression Inventory at the end of treatment. Moreover, sequences of the original model were supported and related to outcome. CONCLUSIONS: These results are discussed within the framework of the sequential model of emotional processing and its possible relevance for psychodynamic psychotherapy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

The dynamic adjustment of local government budgets : Does Spain behave differently?

[spa] El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar si los municipios españoles se ajustan en presencia de un shock presupuestario y (si es así) qué elementos del presupuesto son los que realizan el ajuste. La metodología utilizada para contestar estas preguntas es un mecanismo de corrección del error, VECM, que estimamos con un panel de datos de los municipios españoles durante el período 1988-2006. Nuestros resultados confirman que, en primer lugar, los municipios se ajustan en presencia de un shock fiscal (es decir, el déficit es estacionario en el largo plazo). En segundo lugar, obtenemos que cuando el shock afecta a los ingresos el ajuste lo soporta principalmente el municipio reduciendo el gasto, las transferencias tienen un papel muy reducido en este proceso de ajuste. Por el contrario, cuando el shock afecta al gasto, el ajuste es compartido en términos similares entre el municipio – incrementado los impuestos – y los gobiernos de niveles superiores – incrementando las transferencias. Estos resultados sugieren que la viabilidad de las finanzas pública locales es factible con diferentes entornos institucionales.

Dynamic compact thermal models with multiple power sources: application to an ultrathin chip stacking technology

Whereas numerical modeling using finite-element methods (FEM) can provide transient temperature distribution in the component with enough accuracy, it is of the most importance the development of compact dynamic thermal models that can be used for electrothermal simulation. While in most cases single power sources are considered, here we focus on the simultaneous presence of multiple sources. The thermal model will be in the form of a thermal impedance matrix containing the thermal impedance transfer functions between two arbitrary ports. Eachindividual transfer function element ( ) is obtained from the analysis of the thermal temperature transient at node ¿ ¿ after a power step at node ¿ .¿ Different options for multiexponential transient analysis are detailed and compared. Among the options explored, small thermal models can be obtained by constrained nonlinear least squares (NLSQ) methods if the order is selected properly using validation signals. The methods are applied to the extraction of dynamic compact thermal models for a new ultrathin chip stack technology (UTCS).

On-line event detection by recursive dynamic principal component analysis and gas sensor arrays under drift conditions

Leakage detection is an important issue in many chemical sensing applications. Leakage detection hy thresholds suffers from important drawbacks when sensors have serious drifts or they are affected by cross-sensitivities. Here we present an adaptive method based in a Dynamic Principal Component Analysis that models the relationships between the sensors in the may. In normal conditions a certain variance distribution characterizes sensor signals. However, in the presence of a new source of variance the PCA decomposition changes drastically. In order to prevent the influence of sensor drifts the model is adaptive and it is calculated in a recursive manner with minimum computational effort. The behavior of this technique is studied with synthetic signals and with real signals arising by oil vapor leakages in an air compressor. Results clearly demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method.

Configurational statistical model for the damaged structure of silicon oxide after ion implantation

A configurational model for silicon oxide damaged after a high-dose ion implantation of a nonreactive species is presented. Based on statistics of silicon-centered tetrahedra, the model takes into account not only the closest environment of a given silicon atom, but also the second neighborhood, so it is specified whether the oxygen attached to one given silicon is bridging two tetrahedra or not. The frequencies and intensities of infrared vibrational bands have been calculated by averaging over the distributions and these results are in agreement with the ones obtained from infrared experimental spectra. Likewise, the chemical shifts obtained from x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) analysis are similar to the reported values for the charge-transfer model of SiOx compounds.

The dynamic adjustment of local government budgets : Does Spain behave differently?

[spa] El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar si los municipios españoles se ajustan en presencia de un shock presupuestario y (si es así) qué elementos del presupuesto son los que realizan el ajuste. La metodología utilizada para contestar estas preguntas es un mecanismo de corrección del error, VECM, que estimamos con un panel de datos de los municipios españoles durante el período 1988-2006. Nuestros resultados confirman que, en primer lugar, los municipios se ajustan en presencia de un shock fiscal (es decir, el déficit es estacionario en el largo plazo). En segundo lugar, obtenemos que cuando el shock afecta a los ingresos el ajuste lo soporta principalmente el municipio reduciendo el gasto, las transferencias tienen un papel muy reducido en este proceso de ajuste. Por el contrario, cuando el shock afecta al gasto, el ajuste es compartido en términos similares entre el municipio – incrementado los impuestos – y los gobiernos de niveles superiores – incrementando las transferencias. Estos resultados sugieren que la viabilidad de las finanzas pública locales es factible con diferentes entornos institucionales.

Political economy of municipal water service privatization in Spain: a duration model analysis

This empirical work applies a duration model to the study of factors determining privatization of local water services. I assess how factors determining privatization decision evolve as time goes by. A sample of 133 Spanish municipalities during the six terms of office taken place during the 1980-2002 period is analyzed. A dynamic neighboring effect is hypothesized and successfully tested. In a first stage, private water supply firms may try to expand to regions where there is no service privatized, in order to spread over this region after having being installed thanks to its scale advantages. Other factors influencing privatization decision evolve during the two decades under study, from the priority to fix old infrastructures to the concern about service efficiency. Some complementary results regarding political and budgetary factors are also obtained

Influence of the driving mechanism on the response of systems with athermal dynamics: The example of the random-field Ising model

We investigate the influence of the driving mechanism on the hysteretic response of systems with athermal dynamics. In the framework of local mean-field theory at finite temperature (but neglecting thermally activated processes), we compare the rate-independent hysteresis loops obtained in the random field Ising model when controlling either the external magnetic field H or the extensive magnetization M. Two distinct behaviors are observed, depending on disorder strength. At large disorder, the H-driven and M-driven protocols yield identical hysteresis loops in the thermodynamic limit. At low disorder, when the H-driven magnetization curve is discontinuous (due to the presence of a macroscopic avalanche), the M-driven loop is reentrant while the induced field exhibits strong intermittent fluctuations and is only weakly self-averaging. The relevance of these results to the experimental observations in ferromagnetic materials, shape memory alloys, and other disordered systems is discussed.