Survey of plankton blooms and red tides and their interaction with environmental factors through monitoring satellite images

One of the most important marine ecological phenomena is red tide which is created by increasing of phytoplankton population, influenced by different factors such as climate condition changes, utrification hydrological factors and can leave sever and undesired ecological and economical effects behind itself in the case of durability. Coast line of Hormozgan is about 900km from east to west, within the range of geographical coordinates of 56 16 23.8, 26 58 8.8 to 54 34 5.33 and 26 34 32 eastern longitude and northern latitude, seven sampling stations were considered and sampled for a period of one year from October 2008 to October 2009. after the analysis of Satellite images, monthly, during the best time. In several stages, samplings were performed. In each station, three samples were collected for identification and determination of Bloom- creating species abundance. Cochlodinium polykrikoides was the species responsible for the discoloration which occurred at October 2008 in Hormozgan marine water. Environmental parameters such as sea surface temperature, pH, salinity, Dissolved Oxygen concentration, Total Dissolved Solids (T.D.S.), conductivity, nitrate, nitrite and phosphate and also chlorophyll a were measured and calculated. Kruscal Wallis test was used to compare the densities between different months, seasons and the studied stations. Mann-whitney test from Nonparametric Tests was used for couple comparison. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to determine the relationship between physical and chemical data set and the abundance of Cochlodinium polykrikoides. Multivariate Regression and analysis of variance (ANOVA) also were used to obtain the models and equations of red tide occurrence relationship, environmental parameters and nutrient data. The highest density was 26 million cells per liter in Qeshm station. A meaningful difference was observed between sampling months and seasons but there was no between sampling stations which indicates that in favorable conditions, the occurrence of this phenomenon by the studied species is probable. Regarding to β coefficients of nitrate, temperature, phosphate, Total Dissolvable Solutions (T.D.S) and pH these parameters are effective on the abundance of this species and red tide occurrence. Increase in these factors can represent the effects and outcomes of human activities and increase in marine pollution.

Coupling model uncertainty for coupled rainfall/runoff and surface water quality models in river problems

Coupled hydrology and water quality models are an important tool today, used in the understanding and management of surface water and watershed areas. Such problems are generally subject to substantial uncertainty in parameters, process understanding, and data. Component models, drawing on different data, concepts, and structures, are affected differently by each of these uncertain elements. This paper proposes a framework wherein the response of component models to their respective uncertain elements can be quantified and assessed, using a hydrological model and water quality model as two exemplars. The resulting assessments can be used to identify model coupling strategies that permit more appropriate use and calibration of individual models, and a better overall coupled model response. One key finding was that an approximate balance of water quality and hydrological model responses can be obtained using both the QUAL2E and Mike11 water quality models. The balance point, however, does not support a particularly narrow surface response (or stringent calibration criteria) with respect to the water quality calibration data, at least in the case examined here. Additionally, it is clear from the results presented that the structural source of uncertainty is at least as significant as parameter-based uncertainties in areal models. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Digital elevation models and GIS for watershed modelling and flood prediction-A case study of Accra Ghana

Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Digital Elevation Models (DEM) can be used to perform many geospatial and hydrological modelling including drainage and watershed delineation, flood prediction and physical development studies of urban and rural settlements. This paper explores the use of contour data and planimetric features extracted from topographic maps to derive digital elevation models (DEMs) for watershed delineation and flood impact analysis (for emergency preparedness) of part of Accra, Ghana in a GIS environment. In the study two categories of DEMs were developed with 5 m contour and planimetric topographic data; bare earth DEM and built environment DEM. These derived DEMs were used as terrain inputs for performing spatial analysis and obtaining derivative products. The generated DEMs were used to delineate drainage patterns and watershed of the study area using ArcGIS desktop and its ArcHydro extension tool from Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI). A vector-based approach was used to derive inundation areas at various flood levels. The DEM of built-up areas was used as inputs for determining properties which will be inundated in a flood event and subsequently generating flood inundation maps. The resulting inundation maps show that about 80% areas which have perennially experienced extensive flooding in the city falls within the predicted flood extent. This approach can therefore provide a simplified means of predicting the extent of inundation during flood events for emergency action especially in less developed economies where sophisticated technologies and expertise are hard to come by. © 2009 Springer Netherlands.

Digital Elevation Models and GIS for watershed modelling and flood prediction - A case study of Accra Ghana

Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Digital Elevation Models (DEM) can be used to perform many geospatial and hydrological modelling including drainage and watershed delineation, flood prediction and physical development studies of urban and rural settlements. This paper explores the use of contour data and planimetric features extracted from topographic maps to derive digital elevation models (DEMs) for watershed delineation and flood impact analysis (for emergency preparedness) of part of Accra, Ghana in a GIS environment. In the study two categories of DEMs were developed with 5 m contour and planimetric topographic data; bare earth DEM and built environment DEM. These derived DEMs were used as terrain inputs for performing spatial analysis and obtaining derivative products. The generated DEMs were used to delineate drainage patterns and watershed of the study area using ArcGIS desktop and its ArcHydro extension tool from Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI). A vector-based approach was used to derive inundation areas at various flood levels. The DEM of built-up areas was used as inputs for determining properties which will be inundated in a flood event and subsequently generating flood inundation maps. The resulting inundation maps show that about 80% areas which have perennially experienced extensive flooding in the city falls within the predicted flood extent. This approach can therefore provide a simplified means of predicting the extent of inundation during flood events for emergency action especially in less developed economies where sophisticated technologies and expertise are hard to come by. © Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009.

Differential equation based length scales to improve DES and RANS simulations

Surprisingly expensive to compute wall distances are still used in a range of key turbulence and peripheral physics models. Potentially economical, accuracy improving differential equation based distance algorithms are considered. These involve elliptic Poisson and hyperbolic natured Eikonal equation approaches. Numerical issues relating to non-orthogonal curvilinear grid solution of the latter are addressed. Eikonal extension to a Hamilton-Jacobi (HJ) equation is discussed. Use of this extension to improve turbulence model accuracy and, along with the Eikonal, enhance Detached Eddy Simulation (DES) techniques is considered. Application of the distance approaches is studied for various geometries. These include a plane channel flow with a wire at the centre, a wing-flap system, a jet with co-flow and a supersonic double-delta configuration. Although less accurate than the Eikonal, Poisson method based flow solutions are extremely close to those using a search procedure. For a moving grid case the Poisson method is found especially efficient. Results show the Eikonal equation can be solved on highly stretched, non-orthogonal, curvilinear grids. A key accuracy aspect is that metrics must be upwinded in the propagating front direction. The HJ equation is found to have qualitative turbulence model improving properties. © 2003 by P. G. Tucker.

Minimalistic models of an energy-efficient vertical-hopping robot

The use of free vibration in elastic structure can lead to energy-efficient robot locomotion, since it significantly reduces the energy expenditure if properly designed and controlled. However, it is not well understood how to harness the dynamics of free vibration for the robot locomotion, because of the complex dynamics originated in discrete events and energy dissipation during locomotion. From this perspective, the goals of this paper are to propose a design strategy of hopping robot based on elastic curved beams and actuated rotating masses and to identify the minimalistic model that can characterize the basic principle of robot locomotion. Since the robot mainly exhibits vertical hopping, three 1-D models are examined that contain different configurations of simple spring-damper-mass components. The real-world and simulation experiments show that one of the models best characterizes the robot hopping, through analyzing the basic kinematics and negative works in actuation. Based on this model, the self-stability of hopping motion under disturbances is investigated, and design and control parameters are analyzed for the energy-efficient hopping. In addition, further analyses show that this robot can achieve the energy-efficient hopping with the variation in payload, and the source of energy dissipation of the robot hopping is investigated. © 1982-2012 IEEE.

Minimalistic models of an energy efficient vertical hopping robot

The use of free vibration in elastic structure can lead to energy efficient robot locomotion, since it significantly reduces the energy expenditure if properly designed and controlled. However, it is not well understood how to harness the dynamics of free vibration for the robot locomotion, because of the complex dynamics originated in discrete events and energy dissipation during locomotion. From this perspective, this paper explores three minimalistic models of free vibration that can characterize the basic principle of robot locomotion. Since the robot mainly exhibits vertical hopping, three one-dimensional models are examined that contain different configurations of simple spring-damper-mass components. The self-stability of these models are also investigated in simulation. The real-world and simulation experiments show that one of the models best characterizes the robot hopping, through analyzing the basic kinematics and negative works in actuation. Based on this model, the control parameters are analyzed for the energy efficient hopping. © 2013 IEEE.

Automatic Qualitative Modeling of Dynamic Physical Systems

This report describes MM, a computer program that can model a variety of mechanical and fluid systems. Given a system's structure and qualitative behavior, MM searches for models using an energy-based modeling framework. MM uses general facts about physical systems to relate behavioral and model properties. These facts enable a more focussed search for models than would be obtained by mere comparison of desired and predicted behaviors. When these facts do not apply, MM uses behavior-constrained qualitative simulation to verify candidate models efficiently. MM can also design experiments to distinguish among multiple candidate models.

Learning Shape Descriptions: Generating and Generalizing Models of Visual Objects

We present the results of an implemented system for learning structural prototypes from grey-scale images. We show how to divide an object into subparts and how to encode the properties of these subparts and the relations between them. We discuss the importance of hierarchy and grouping in representing objects and show how a notion of visual similarities can be embedded in the description language. Finally we exhibit a learning algorithm that forms class models from the descriptions produced and uses these models to recognize new members of the class.

Qualitative and Quantitative Knowledge in Classical Mechanics

This thesis investigates what knowledge is necessary to solve mechanics problems. A program NEWTON is described which understands and solves problems in mechanics mini-world of objects moving on surfaces. Facts and equations such as those given in mechanics text need to be represented. However, this is far from sufficient to solve problems. Human problem solvers rely on "common sense" and "qualitative" knowledge which the physics text tacitly assumes to be present. A mechanics problem solver must embody such knowledge. Quantitative knowledge given by equations and more qualitative common sense knowledge are the major research points exposited in this thesis. The major issue in solving problems is planning. Planning involves tentatively outlining a possible path to the solution without actually solving the problem. Such a plan needs to be constructed and debugged in the process of solving the problem. Envisionment, or qualitative simulation of the event, plays a central role in this planning process.

Changes in innovation styles - comprehensive study of the changes in innovation styles to identify the causes and effects of different influencing factors and capabilities to create a general innovation pattern.

An investigation in innovation management and entrepreneurial management is conducted in this thesis. The aim of the research is to explore changes of innovation styles in the transformation process from a start-up company to a more mature phase of business, to predict in a second step future sustainability and the probability of success. As businesses grow in revenue, corporate size and functional complexity, various triggers, supporters and drivers affect innovation and company's success. In a comprehensive study more than 200 innovative and technology driven companies have been examined and compared to identify patterns in different performance levels. All of them have been founded under the same formal requirements of the Munich Business Plan Competition -a research approach which allowed a unique snapshot that only long-term studies would be able to provide. The general objective was to identify the correlation between different factors, as well as different dimensions, to incremental and radical innovations realised. The 12 hypothesis were formed to prove have been derived from a comprehensive literature review. The relevant academic and practitioner literature on entrepreneurial, innovation, and knowledge management as well as social network theory revealed that the concept of innovation has evolved significantly over the last decade. A review of over 15 innovation models/frameworks contributed to understand what innovation in context means and what the dimensions are. It appears that the complex theories of innovation can be described by the increasing extent of social ingredients in the explanation of innovativeness. Originally based on tangible forms of capital, and on the necessity of pull and technology push, innovation management is today integrated in a larger system. Therefore, two research instruments have been developed to explore the changes in innovations styles. The Innovation Management Audits (IMA Start-up and IMA Mature) provided statements related to product/service development, innovativeness in various typologies, resources for innovations, innovation capabilities in conjunction to knowledge and management, social networks as well as the measurement of outcomes to generate high-quality data for further exploration. In obtaining results the mature companies have been clustered in the performance level low, average and high, while the start-up companies have been kept as one cluster. Firstly, the analysis exposed that knowledge, the process of acquiring knowledge, interorganisational networks and resources for innovations are the most important driving factors for innovation and success. Secondly, the actual change of the innovation style provides new insights about the importance of focusing on sustaining success and innovation ii 16 key areas. Thirdly, a detailed overview of triggers, supporters and drivers for innovation and success for each dimension support decision makers in putting their company in the right direction. Fourthly, a critical review of contemporary strategic management in conjunction to the findings provides recommendation of how to apply well-known management tools. Last but not least, the Munich cluster is analysed providing an estimation of the success probability of the different performance cluster and start-up companies. For the analysis of the probability of success of the newly developed as well as statistically and qualitative validated ICP Model (Innovativeness, Capabilities & Potential) has been developed and applied. While the model was primarily developed to evaluate the probability of success of companies; it has equal application in the situation to measure innovativeness to identify the impact of various strategic initiatives within small or large enterprises. The main findings of the model are that competitor, and customer orientation and acquiring knowledge important for incremental and radical innovation. Formal and interorganisation networks are important to foster innovation but informal networks appear to be detrimental to innovation. The testing of the ICP model h the long term is recommended as one subject of further research. Another is to investigate some of the more intangible aspects of innovation management such as attitude and motivation of mangers. IV

Qualitative Modelling of Linear Networks in ECAD Applications

Lee M.H., Qualitative Modelling of Linear Networks in ECAD Applications, Expert Update, Vol. 3, Num. 2, pp23-32, BCS SGES, Summer 2000. Qualitative modeling of linear networks in ecad applications (1999) by M Lee Venue: Pages 146?152 of: Proceedings 13th international workshop on qualitative reasoning, QR ?99

Genetic correlates of longevity and selected age-related phenotypes: a genome-wide association study in the Framingham Study

BACKGROUND: Family studies and heritability estimates provide evidence for a genetic contribution to variation in the human life span. METHODS:We conducted a genome wide association study (Affymetrix 100K SNP GeneChip) for longevity-related traits in a community-based sample. We report on 5 longevity and aging traits in up to 1345 Framingham Study participants from 330 families. Multivariable-adjusted residuals were computed using appropriate models (Cox proportional hazards, logistic, or linear regression) and the residuals from these models were used to test for association with qualifying SNPs (70, 987 autosomal SNPs with genotypic call rate [greater than or equal to]80%, minor allele frequency [greater than or equal to]10%, Hardy-Weinberg test p [greater than or equal to] 0.001).RESULTS:In family-based association test (FBAT) models, 8 SNPs in two regions approximately 500 kb apart on chromosome 1 (physical positions 73,091,610 and 73, 527,652) were associated with age at death (p-value < 10-5). The two sets of SNPs were in high linkage disequilibrium (minimum r2 = 0.58). The top 30 SNPs for generalized estimating equation (GEE) tests of association with age at death included rs10507486 (p = 0.0001) and rs4943794 (p = 0.0002), SNPs intronic to FOXO1A, a gene implicated in lifespan extension in animal models. FBAT models identified 7 SNPs and GEE models identified 9 SNPs associated with both age at death and morbidity-free survival at age 65 including rs2374983 near PON1. In the analysis of selected candidate genes, SNP associations (FBAT or GEE p-value < 0.01) were identified for age at death in or near the following genes: FOXO1A, GAPDH, KL, LEPR, PON1, PSEN1, SOD2, and WRN. Top ranked SNP associations in the GEE model for age at natural menopause included rs6910534 (p = 0.00003) near FOXO3a and rs3751591 (p = 0.00006) in CYP19A1. Results of all longevity phenotype-genotype associations for all autosomal SNPs are web posted at http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/projects/gap/cgi-bin/study.cgi?id=phs000007. CONCLUSION: Longevity and aging traits are associated with SNPs on the Affymetrix 100K GeneChip. None of the associations achieved genome-wide significance. These data generate hypotheses and serve as a resource for replication as more genes and biologic pathways are proposed as contributing to longevity and healthy aging.

Differential and numerical models of hysteretic systems with stochastic and deterministic inputs

Many deterministic models with hysteresis have been developed in the areas of economics, finance, terrestrial hydrology and biology. These models lack any stochastic element which can often have a strong effect in these areas. In this work stochastically driven closed loop systems with hysteresis type memory are studied. This type of system is presented as a possible stochastic counterpart to deterministic models in the areas of economics, finance, terrestrial hydrology and biology. Some price dynamics models are presented as a motivation for the development of this type of model. Numerical schemes for solving this class of stochastic differential equation are developed in order to examine the prototype models presented. As a means of further testing the developed numerical schemes, numerical examination is made of the behaviour near equilibrium of coupled ordinary differential equations where the time derivative of the Preisach operator is included in one of the equations. A model of two phenotype bacteria is also presented. This model is examined to explore memory effects and related hysteresis effects in the area of biology. The memory effects found in this model are similar to that found in the non-ideal relay. This non-ideal relay type behaviour is used to model a colony of bacteria with multiple switching thresholds. This model contains a Preisach type memory with a variable Preisach weight function. Shown numerically for this multi-threshold model is a pattern formation for the distribution of the phenotypes among the available thresholds.

Interaction strengths and net effects in food web models

Understanding how dynamic ecological communities respond to anthropogenic drivers of change such as habitat loss and fragmentation, climate change and the introduction of alien species requires that there is a theoretical framework able to predict community dynamics. At present there is a lack of empirical data that can be used to inform and test predictive models, which means that much of our knowledge regarding the response of ecological communities to perturbations is obtained from theoretical analyses and simulations. This thesis is composed of two strands of research: an empirical experiment conducted to inform the scaling of intraspecific and interspecific interaction strengths in a three species food chain and a series of theoretical analyses on the changes to equilibrium biomass abundances following press perturbations. The empirical experiment is a consequence of the difficulties faced when parameterising the intraspecific interaction strengths in a Lotka-Volterra model. A modification of the dynamic index is used alongside the original dynamic index to estimate intraspecific interactions and interspecific interaction strengths in a three species food. The theoretical analyses focused on the effect of press perturbations to focal species on the equilibrium biomass densities of all species in the community; these perturbations allow for the quantification of a species total net effect. It was found that there is a strong and consistent positive relationship between a species body size and its total net effect for a set of 97 synthetic food webs and also for the Ythan Estuary and Tuesday Lake food webs (empirically described food webs). It is shown that ecological constraints (due to allometric scaling) on the magnitude of entries in the community matrix cause the patterns observed in the inverse community matrix and thus explain the relationship between a species body mass and its total net effect in a community.