The effects of population density on the spread of disease

The objective of this study is to identify the relationship between population density and the initial stages of the spread of disease in a local population. This study proposes to concentrate on the question of how population density affects the distribution of the susceptible individuals in a local population and thus affects the spread of the disease, measles. Population density is measured by the average of the number of contacts with susceptible individuals by each individual in the population during a fixed-length time period. The term “contact with susceptible individuals” means sufficient contact between two people for the disease to pass from an infectious person to a susceptible person. The fixed-length time period is taken to be the average length of time an infected person is infectious without symptoms of the disease. For this study of measles, the time period will be seven days. ^ While much attention has been given to modeling the entire epidemic process of measles, attempts have not been made to study the characteristics of contact rates required to initiate an epidemic. This study explores the relationship between population density, given a specific herd immunity rate in the population, and initial rate of the spread of the disease by considering the underlying distribution of contacts with susceptibles by the individuals in the population. ^ This study does not seek to model an entire measles epidemic, but to model the above stated relationship for the local population within which the first infective person is introduced. This study describes the mathematical relationship between population density parameters and contact distribution parameters. ^ The results are displayed in graphs that show the effects of different population densities on the spread of disease. The results support the idea that the number of new infectives is strongly related to the distribution of susceptible contacts. The results also show large differences in the epidemic measures between populations with densities equal to four versus three. ^

The Use of Ships' Protests for Reconstruction of Synoptic-Scale Weather and Tropical Storm Identification in the Late Eighteenth Century

Ships’ protests have been used for centuries as legal documents to record and detail damages and indemnify Captains from fault. We use them in this article, along with data extracted through forensic synoptic analysis (McNally, 1994, 2004) to identify a tropical or subtropical system in the North Atlantic Ocean in 1785. They are shown to be viable sources of meteorological information. By comparing a damaging storm in New England in 1996, which included an offshore tropical system, with one reconstructed in 1785, we demonstrate that the tropical system identified in a ship’s protest played a significant role in the 1785 storm. With both forensic reconstruction and anecdotal evidence, we are able to assess that these storms are remarkably identical. The recurrence rate calculated in previous studies of the 1996 storm is 400–500 years. We suggest that reconstruction of additional years in the 1700s would provide the basis for a reanalysis of recurrence rates, with implications for future insurance and reinsurance rates. The application of the methodology to this new data source can also be used for extension of the hurricane database in the North Atlantic basin, and elsewhere, much further back into history than is currently available.

The Jakobshanvs Effect

The Jakobshavns Effect may have been a significant factor in hastening the collapse of palaeo ice sheets with the advent of climatic warming after 18,000 years ago and may precipitate partial collapse of the present‐day Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets following CO2‐induced climatic warming in the decades ahead. The Jakobshavns Effect is observed today on Jakobshavns Glacier, which is located at 69°10′N on the west coast of Greenland. The Jakobshavns Effect is a group of positive feedback mechanisms which allow Jakobshavns Glacier to literally pull ice out of the Greenland Ice Sheet at a rate exceeding 7 km/a across a floating terminus 800 m thick and 6 km wide. The pulling power results from an imbalance of horizontal hydrostatic forces in ice and water columns at the grounding line of the floating terminus. Positive feedback mechanisms that sustain the rapid ice discharge rate are ubiquitous surface crevassing, high summer rates of surface melting, extending creep flow, progressive basal uncoupling, progressive lateral uncoupling, and rapid iceberg calving.

Simulation of the Impact of Dams and Fishing Weirs on Reproductive Potential of Silver-Phase American Eels in the Kennebec River Basin, Maine

I modeled the cumulative impact of hydroelectric projects with and without commercial fishing weirs and water-control dams on the production, survival to the sea, and potential fecundity of migrating female silver-phase American eels, Anguilla rostrata in the Kennebec River basin, Maine, This river basin has 22 hydroelectric projects, 73 water-control dams, and 15 commercial fishing weir sites. The modeled area included an 8,324 km(2) segment of the drainage area between Merrymeeting Bay and the upper limit of American eel distribution in the basin. One set of input,, (assumed or real values) concerned population structure (Le., population density and sex ratio changes throughout the basin, female length-class distribution, and drainage area between dams), Another set concerned factors influencing survival and potential fecundity of migrating American eels (i.e., pathway sequences through projects, survival rate per project by length-class. and length-fecundity relationship). Under baseline conditions about 402,400 simulated silver female American eels would be produced annually reductions in their numbers due to dams and weirs would reduce the realized fecundity (i.e., the number of eggs produced by all females that survived the migration). Without weirs or water-control dams, about 63% of the simulated silverphase American eels survived their freshwater spawning migration run to the sea when the survival rate at each hydroelectric dam was 9017, 40% survived at 80% survival per dam, and 18% survived at 60% survival per dam. Removing the lowermost hydroelectric dam on the Kennebec River increased survival by 6.0-7.6% for the basin. The efficient commercial weirs reduced survival to the sea to 69-76%( of what it would have been without weirs', regardless of survival rates at hydroelectric dams. Water-control dams had little impact on production in this basin because most were located in the upper reaches of tributaries. Sensitivity analysis led to the conclusion that small changes in population density and female length distribution had greater effects on survival and realized fecundity than similar changes in turbine survival rate. The latter became more important as turbine survival rate decreased. Therefore, it might be more fruitful to determine population distribution in basins of interest than to determine mortality rate at each hydroelectric project.

Organ donation in Switzerland - an analysis of factors associated with consent rate

BACKGROUND AND AIM Switzerland has a low post mortem organ donation rate. Here we examine variables that are associated with the consent of the deceased's next of kin (NOK) for organ donation, which is a prerequisite for donation in Switzerland. METHODS AND ANALYSIS During one year, we registered information from NOK of all deceased patients in Swiss intensive care units, who were approached for consent to organ donation. We collected data on patient demographics, characteristics of NOK, factors related to the request process and to the clinical setting. We analyzed the association of collected predictors with consent rate using univariable logistic regression models; predictors with p-values <0.2 were selected for a multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS Of 266 NOK approached for consent, consent was given in 137 (51.5%) cases. In multivariable analysis, we found associations of consent rates with Swiss nationality (OR 3.09, 95% CI: 1.46-6.54) and German language area (OR 0.31, 95% CI: 0.14-0.73). Consent rates tended to be higher if a parent was present during the request (OR 1.76, 95% CI: 0.93-3.33) and if the request was done before brain death was formally declared (OR 1.87, 95% CI: 0.90-3.87). CONCLUSION Establishing an atmosphere of trust between the medical staff putting forward a request and the NOK, allowing sufficient time for the NOK to consider donation, and respecting personal values and cultural differences, could be of importance for increasing donation rates. Additional measures are needed to address the pronounced differences in consent rates between language regions.

Prediction and prevention of psychosis: current progress and future tasks

Prevention of psychoses has been intensively investigated within the past two decades, and particularly, prediction has been much advanced. Depending on the applied risk indicators, current criteria are associated with average, yet significantly heterogeneous transition rates of ≥30 % within 3 years, further increasing with longer follow-up periods. Risk stratification offers a promising approach to advance current prediction as it can help to reduce heterogeneity of transition rates and to identify subgroups with specific needs and response patterns, enabling a targeted intervention. It may also be suitable to improve risk enrichment. Current results suggest the future implementation of multi-step risk algorithms combining sensitive risk detection by cognitive basic symptoms (COGDIS) and ultra-high-risk (UHR) criteria with additional individual risk estimation by a prognostic index that relies on further predictors such as additional clinical indicators, functional impairment, neurocognitive deficits, and EEG and structural MRI abnormalities, but also considers resilience factors. Simply combining COGDIS and UHR criteria in a second step of risk stratification produced already a 4-year hazard rate of 0.66. With regard to prevention, two recent meta-analyses demonstrated that preventive measures enable a reduction in 12-month transition rates by 54-56 % with most favorable numbers needed to treat of 9-10. Unfortunately, psychosocial functioning, another important target of preventive efforts, did not improve. However, these results are based on a relatively small number of trials; and more methodologically sound studies and a stronger consideration of individual profiles of clinical needs by modular intervention programs are required

Hypoxic treatment of human dual placental perfusion induces a preeclampsia-like inflammatory response.

Preeclampsia is a human pregnancy-specific disorder characterized by a placental pro-inflammatory response in combination with an imbalance of angiogenic factors and clinical symptoms, including hypertension and proteinuria. Insufficient uteroplacental oxygenation in preeclampsia due to impaired trophoblast invasion during placentation is believed to be responsible for many of the molecular events leading to the clinical manifestations of this disease. We investigated the use of hypoxic treatment of the dual placental perfusion system as a model for preeclampsia. A modified perfusion technique allowed us to achieve a mean soluble oxygen tension within the intervillous space (IVS) of 5-7% for normoxia and <3% for hypoxia (as a model for preeclampsia). We assayed for the levels of different inflammatory cytokines, oxidative stress markers, as well as other factors, such as endothelin (ET)-1 that are known to be implicated as part of the inflammatory response in preeclampsia. Our results show a significant increase under hypoxia in the levels of different inflammatory cytokines, including IL-6 (P=0.002), IL-8 (P<0.0001), TNF-α (P=0.032) and IFN-γ (P=0.009) at 360 min in maternal venous samples (n=6). There was also a significant increase in ET-1 levels under hypoxia both on the maternal side at 30 min (P=0.003) and fetal side at 360 min (P=0.036) (n=6). Other markers of oxidative stress, including malondialdehyde and 8-iso-protaglandin F2α (P=0.009) also show increased levels. Overall, these findings indicate that exposure of ex vivo dually perfused placental tissue to hypoxia provides a useful model for mimicking the inflammatory response characteristic of preeclampsia. This would therefore provide a powerful tool for studying and further delineating the molecular mechanisms involved in the underlying pathophysiology of preeclampsia.

Infection rate of emergency bolt-kit vs. non-emergency conventional implanted silver bearing external ventricular drainage catheters.

BACKGROUND Bolt-kit systems are increasingly used as an alternative to conventional external cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) drainage systems. Since 2009 we regularly utilize bolt-kit external ventricular drainage (EVD) systems with silver-bearing catheters inserted manually with a hand drill and skull screws for emergency ventriculostomy. For non-emergency situations, we use conventional ventriculostomy with subcutaneous tunneled silver-bearing catheters, performed in the operating room with a pneumatic drill. This retrospective analysis compared the two techniques in terms of infection rates. METHODS 152 patients (aged 17-85 years, mean=55.4 years) were included in the final analysis; 95 received bolt-kit silver-bearing catheters and 57 received conventionally implanted silver-bearing catheters. The primary endpoint combined infection parameters: occurrence of positive CSF culture, colonization of catheter tips, or elevated CSF white blood cell counts (>4/μl). Secondary outcome parameters were presence of microorganisms in CSF or on catheter tips. Incidence of increased CSF cell counts and number of patients with catheter malposition were also compared. RESULTS The primary outcome, defined as analysis of combined infection parameters (occurrence of either positive CSF culture, colonization of the catheter tips or raised CSF white blood cell counts >4/μl)was not significantly different between the groups (58.9% bolt-kit group vs. 63.2% conventionally implanted group, p=0.61, chi-square-test). The bolt-kit group was non-inferior and not superior to the conventional group (relative risk reduction of 6.7%; 90% confidence interval: -19.9% to 25.6%). Secondary outcomes showed no statistically significant difference in the incidence of microorganisms in CSF (2.1% bolt-kit vs. 5.3% conventionally implanted; p=0.30; chi-square-test). CONCLUSIONS This analysis indicates that silver-bearing EVD catheters implanted with a bolt-kit system outside the operating room do not significantly elevate the risk of CSF infection as compared to conventional implant methods.

Comparison of (31)P saturation and inversion magnetization transfer in human liver and skeletal muscle using a clinical MR system and surface coils.

(31)P MRS magnetization transfer ((31)P-MT) experiments allow the estimation of exchange rates of biochemical reactions, such as the creatine kinase equilibrium and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) synthesis. Although various (31)P-MT methods have been successfully used on isolated organs or animals, their application on humans in clinical scanners poses specific challenges. This study compared two major (31)P-MT methods on a clinical MR system using heteronuclear surface coils. Although saturation transfer (ST) is the most commonly used (31)P-MT method, sequences such as inversion transfer (IT) with short pulses might be better suited for the specific hardware and software limitations of a clinical scanner. In addition, small NMR-undetectable metabolite pools can transfer MT to NMR-visible pools during long saturation pulses, which is prevented with short pulses. (31)P-MT sequences were adapted for limited pulse length, for heteronuclear transmit-receive surface coils with inhomogeneous B1 , for the need for volume selection and for the inherently low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) on a clinical 3-T MR system. The ST and IT sequences were applied to skeletal muscle and liver in 10 healthy volunteers. Monte-Carlo simulations were used to evaluate the behavior of the IT measurements with increasing imperfections. In skeletal muscle of the thigh, ATP synthesis resulted in forward reaction constants (k) of 0.074 ± 0.022 s(-1) (ST) and 0.137 ± 0.042 s(-1) (IT), whereas the creatine kinase reaction yielded 0.459 ± 0.089 s(-1) (IT). In the liver, ATP synthesis resulted in k = 0.267 ± 0.106 s(-1) (ST), whereas the IT experiment yielded no consistent results. ST results were close to literature values; however, the IT results were either much larger than the corresponding ST values and/or were widely scattered. To summarize, ST and IT experiments can both be implemented on a clinical body scanner with heteronuclear transmit-receive surface coils; however, ST results are much more robust against experimental imperfections than the current implementation of IT.

Parallel adaptations to nectarivory in parrots, key innovations and the diversification of the Loriinae

Specialization to nectarivory is associated with radiations within different bird groups, including parrots. One of them, the Australasian lories, were shown to be unexpectedly species rich. Their shift to nectarivory may have created an ecological opportunity promoting species proliferation. Several morphological specializations of the feeding tract to nectarivory have been described for parrots. However, they have never been assessed in a quantitative framework considering phylogenetic nonindependence. Using a phylogenetic comparative approach with broad taxon sampling and 15 continuous characters of the digestive tract, we demonstrate that nectarivorous parrots differ in several traits from the remaining parrots. These trait-changes indicate phenotype–environment correlations and parallel evolution, and may reflect adaptations to feed effectively on nectar. Moreover, the diet shift was associated with significant trait shifts at the base of the radiation of the lories, as shown by an alternative statistical approach. Their diet shift might be considered as an evolutionary key innovation which promoted significant non-adaptive lineage diversification through allopatric partitioning of the same new niche. The lack of increased rates of cladogenesis in other nectarivorous parrots indicates that evolutionary innovations need not be associated one-to-one with diversification events.

Efficiency of frost-cracking processes through space and time: An example from the eastern Italian Alps

It is widely accepted that climate has a strong impact and exerts important feedbacks on erosional processes and sediment transport mechanisms. However, the extent at which climate influences erosion is still a matter of debate. In this paper we test whether frost-cracking processes and related temperature variations can influence the sediment production and surface erosion in a small catchment situated in the eastern Italian Alps. To this extent, we first present a geomorphic map of the region that we complement with published 10Be-based denudation rates. We then apply a preexisting heat-flow model in order to analyze the variations of the frost-cracking intensity (FCI) in the study area, which could have controlled the sediment production in the basin. Finally, we compare the model results with the pattern of denudation rates and Quaternary deposits in the geomorphic map. The model results, combined with field observations, mapping, and quantitative geomorphic analyses, reveal that frost-cracking processes have had a primary role in the production of sediment where the intensity of sediment supply has been dictated and limited by the combined effect of temperature variations and conditions of bedrock preservation. These results highlight the importance of a yet poorly understood process for the production of sediment in mountain areas.

Towards a spatial understanding of trade-offs in sustainable development: A meso-scale analysis of the nexus between land use, poverty, and environment in the Lao PDR

In land systems, equitably managing trade-offs between planetary boundaries and human development needs represents a grand challenge in sustainability oriented initiatives. Informing such initiatives requires knowledge about the nexus between land use, poverty, and environment. This paper presents results from Lao PDR, where we combined nationwide spatial data on land use types and the environmental state of landscapes with village-level poverty indicators. Our analysis reveals two general but contrasting trends. First, landscapes with paddy or permanent agriculture allow a greater number of people to live in less poverty but come at the price of a decrease in natural vegetation cover. Second, people practising extensive swidden agriculture and living in intact environments are often better off than people in degraded paddy or permanent agriculture. As poverty rates within different landscape types vary more than between landscape types, we cannot stipulate a land use–poverty–environment nexus. However, the distinct spatial patterns or configurations of these rates point to other important factors at play. Drawing on ethnicity as a proximate factor for endogenous development potentials and accessibility as a proximate factor for external influences, we further explore these linkages. Ethnicity is strongly related to poverty in all land use types almost independently of accessibility, implying that social distance outweighs geographic or physical distance. In turn, accessibility, almost a precondition for poverty alleviation, is mainly beneficial to ethnic majority groups and people living in paddy or permanent agriculture. These groups are able to translate improved accessibility into poverty alleviation. Our results show that the concurrence of external influences with local—highly contextual—development potentials is key to shaping outcomes of the land use–poverty–environment nexus. By addressing such leverage points, these findings help guide more effective development interventions. At the same time, they point to the need in land change science to better integrate the understanding of place-based land indicators with process-based drivers of land use change.

Osteotomy of the greater trochanter: effect on gluteus medius function

PURPOSE Advancement of the greater trochanter alters the function of the gluteus medius muscle. However, with the exception of clinical studies and biomechanical lever arm studies, no publications that analyze the consequences of advancement of the greater trochanter on the muscle function exist. The aim of the study was to analyze the mechanical changes of gluteus medius after osteotomy of the greater trochanter in a lab setting. METHODS An anatomical study of origin and insertion of the gluteus medius was carried out on four hips. Based on the dissections, a string model was developed dividing the muscle into five sectors. Changes in muscle fiber length were measured for every 10° of flexion, internal and external rotation and abduction with the trochanter in anatomic, proximalized and distalized positions. RESULTS Distalization of the trochanter leads to an imbalance of muscle action, moving the isometric sector of the muscle anteriorly with more muscle sectors being active during flexion and less during extension. Stretching of the muscle increases passive forces but decreases the force generation capacity of the muscle and at the same time increased muscle fiber excursion may require more energy consumption, which may explain earlier fatigue of the abductor musculature after distalization of the trochanter. For abduction, distalization of the muscle attachment leads to a change in contraction pattern from isometric to isotonic. Optimal balancing and excursion of the muscle is when the tip of the greater trochanter is at level with the hip rotation center. CONCLUSIONS In hips with high riding trochanter, the optimal position is at the level of the center of hip rotation. Excessive distalization should be avoided. As the conclusions and considerations are based on a lab setting, transfer to clinical practice may not necessarily apply.

Are there signs of change in gendered language use in children's early reading material?

In this study we investigate the relative frequencies of female and male terms in early reading material for children using the Children’s Printed Word Database as a resource. As roles of females and males have changed over time it is of interest to see if there has been a corresponding change in representations of females and males in children’s books. We carried out analyses regarding different words related to gender. Except for nouns referring to relatives, we found in all word groups a preponderance of male terms. The imbalance of male and female pronouns is equivalent to that reported by Carroll, Davies, and Richman (1971) in a frequency count of printed words in children’s book in the USA conducted some 40 years ago. The results are discussed in terms of gender inequality in reading materials and the development of social mores and stereotypical ideas.

Prevalence and determinants of type 2 diabetes among Filipino Americans in Houston metropolitan statistical area, Texas

Diabetes in adults (type 2) has emerged as a world health problem. Prevalence and risk factors have been found to vary in different populations. The wide range of prevalence rates worldwide indicates the importance of genetic and environmental factors in the etiology of the disease. The few available studies suggest that Filipinos are among the higher-risk groups for developing diabetes. This cross-sectional study estimated the overall prevalence rate of type 2 diabetes among Filipino Americans, ages 20–74 years and residents of Houston Metropolitan Statistical Area, Texas, to be 16.1%. The observed high prevalence was associated with age, sex, family history of diabetes, obesity, region of birth; and, in women, gestational diabetes and income. The diabetic Filipino Americans had a higher proportion of parental history of diabetes, medical history of hypertension, and history of smoking; were physically less active, but generally non-obese, compared with the United States diabetic population. ^