Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model—I: description of the system and the impact of radar-derived surface precipitation rates

A key strategy to improve the skill of quantitative predictions of precipitation, as well as hazardous weather such as severe thunderstorms and flash floods is to exploit the use of observations of convective activity (e.g. from radar). In this paper, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) aimed at addressing the problems of forecasting localized weather events with relatively short predictability time scale and based on a 1.5 km grid-length version of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Particular attention is given to the impact of using predicted observations of radar-derived precipitation intensity in the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) used within the EPS. Our initial results based on the use of a 24-member ensemble of forecasts for two summer case studies show that the convective-scale EPS produces fairly reliable forecasts of temperature, horizontal winds and relative humidity at 1 h lead time, as evident from the inspection of rank histograms. On the other hand, the rank histograms seem also to show that the EPS generates too much spread for forecasts of (i) surface pressure and (ii) surface precipitation intensity. These may indicate that for (i) the value of surface pressure observation error standard deviation used to generate surface pressure rank histograms is too large and for (ii) may be the result of non-Gaussian precipitation observation errors. However, further investigations are needed to better understand these findings. Finally, the inclusion of predicted observations of precipitation from radar in the 24-member EPS considered in this paper does not seem to improve the 1-h lead time forecast skill.

The management of positive inter-store externalities in shopping centres: some empirical evidence

In enclosed shopping centres, stores benefit from the positive externalities of other stores in the centre. Some stores provide greater benefits to their neighbours than others – for example anchor tenants and brand leading stores. In managing shopping centres, these positive externalities might be captured through rental variations. This paper explores the determinants of rent – including externalities – for UK regional shopping centres. Two linked databases were utilised in the research. One contains characteristics of 148 shopping centres; the other has some 1,930 individual tenant records including rent level. These data were analysed to provide information on the characteristics of centres and retailers that help determine rent. Factors influencing tenant rents include market potential factors derived from urban and regional economic theory and shopping centre characteristics identified in prior retail research. The model also includes variables that proxy for the interaction between tenants and the impact of positive in-centre externalities. We find that store size is significantly and negatively related to tenant with both anchor and other larger tenants, perhaps as a result of the positive effects generated by their presence, paying relatively lower rents while smaller stores, benefiting from the generation of demand, pay relatively higher rents. Brand leader tenants pay lower rents than other tenants within individual retail categories.

Water vapour continuum absorption in near-infrared windows derived from laboratory measurements

In most near-infrared atmospheric windows, absorption of solar radiation is dominated by the water vapor self-continuum and yet there is a paucity of measurements in these windows. We report new laboratory measurements of the self-continuum absorption at temperatures between 293 and 472 K and pressures from 0.015 to 5 atm in four near-infrared windows between 1 and 4 m (10000-2500 cm-1); the measurements are made over a wider range of wavenumber, temperatures and pressures than any previous measurements. They show that the self-continuum in these windows is typically one order of magnitude stronger than given in representations of the continuum widely used in climate and weather prediction models. These results are also not consistent with current theories attributing the self continuum within windows to the far-wings of strong spectral lines in the nearby water vapor absorption bands; we suggest that they are more consistent with water dimers being the major contributor to the continuum. The calculated global-average clear-sky atmospheric absorption of solar radiation is increased by 0.75 W/m2 (which is about 1% of the total clear-sky absorption) by using these new measurements as compared to calculations with the MT_CKD-2.5 self-continuum model.

Application of logistic regression for fault analysis in an industrial printing process

A statistical technique for fault analysis in industrial printing is reported. The method specifically deals with binary data, for which the results of the production process fall into two categories, rejected or accepted. The method is referred to as logistic regression, and is capable of predicting future fault occurrences by the analysis of current measurements from machine parts sensors. Individual analysis of each type of fault can determine which parts of the plant have a significant influence on the occurrence of such faults; it is also possible to infer which measurable process parameters have no significant influence on the generation of these faults. Information derived from the analysis can be helpful in the operator's interpretation of the current state of the plant. Appropriate actions may then be taken to prevent potential faults from occurring. The algorithm is being implemented as part of an applied self-learning expert system.

Effect of phonetic complexity on word reading and repetition in deep dyslexia

This investigation moves beyond the traditional studies of word reading to identify how the production complexity of words affects reading accuracy in an individual with deep dyslexia (JO). We examined JO’s ability to read words aloud while manipulating both the production complexity of the words and the semantic context. The classification of words as either phonetically simple or complex was based on the Index of Phonetic Complexity. The semantic context was varied using a semantic blocking paradigm (i.e., semantically blocked and unblocked conditions). In the semantically blocked condition words were grouped by semantic categories (e.g., table, sit, seat, couch,), whereas in the unblocked condition the same words were presented in a random order. JO’s performance on reading aloud was also compared to her performance on a repetition task using the same items. Results revealed a strong interaction between word complexity and semantic blocking for reading aloud but not for repetition. JO produced the greatest number of errors for phonetically complex words in semantically blocked condition. This interaction suggests that semantic processes are constrained by output production processes which are exaggerated when derived from visual rather than auditory targets. This complex relationship between orthographic, semantic, and phonetic processes highlights the need for word recognition models to explicitly account for production processes.

Highly efficient separation of actinides from lanthanides by a phenanthroline-derived bis-triazine ligand

The synthesis, lanthanide complexation, and solvent ex- traction of actinide(III) and lanthanide(III) radiotracers from nitric acid solutions by a phenanthroline-derived quadridentate bis-triazine ligand are described. The ligand separates Am(III) and Cm(III) from the lanthanides with remarkably high efficiency, high selectivity, and fast extraction kinetics compared to its 2,2'-bipyridine counterpart. Structures of the 1:2 bis-complexes of the ligand with Eu(III) and Yb(III) were elucidated by X-ray crystallography and force field calculations, respec-tively. The Eu(III) bis-complex is the first 1:2 bis-complex of a quadridentate bis-triazine ligand to be characterized by crystallography. The faster rates of extraction were verified by kinetics measurements using the rotating membrane cell technique in several diluents. The improved kinetics of metal ion extraction are related to the higher surface activity of the ligand at the phase interface. The improvement in the ligand's properties on replacing the bipyridine unit with a phenanthroline unit far exceeds what was anticipated based on ligand design alone.

A substituted isoindolin-1-one derived from (R)-(–)-2-amino-1-butanol

The reaction of o-phthalaldehyde with (R)-(-)-2-aminobutanol yielded an unexpected rearrangement product, an N-substituted isoindoline-1-one, 2-(1-hydroxybut-2-yl)isoindolin-1-one. Formula: C12H15NO2

Reactions of methylvinyl and phenylvinyl ketones with a tricyclic ketone derived from 2-tetralone: characterization of crystalline products by X-ray diffraction

Base catalysed reaction of the tricyclic ketone (6 ⇌ 7) with methylvinyl ketone gave the tetracyclic ketols, 11, 13, 15, 16, and the pentacyclic ketols, 12, 17. With phenylvinyl ketone, the tetracyclic ketol (18) was formed. The stereostructures of the ketols were identified by X-Ray diffraction. The base-catalysed title reactions gave the cyclic ketols and derived compounds shown below whose structures were identified by X-ray diffraction.

Syntheses and crystal structures of [Sn{2-[(Me3Si)2C]C5H4N}R] [R = C6H2Pri3-2,4,6 1 or CH(PPh2)2 2], two novel heteroleptic tin(II) compounds derived from [Sn-{2-[(Me3Si)2C]C5H4N}Cl], and for [{Sn(C6H2Pri3-2,4,6)2}3] 3, a structural redetermination

Two novel, monomeric heteroleptic tin(II) derivatives, [Sn{2-[(Me3Si)2C]C5H4N}R] [R = C6H2Pri3-2,4,6 1 or CH(PPh2)2 2], have been prepared, characterised by multinuclear NMR spectroscopies and their molecular structures determined by single crystal X-ray diffraction. Both compounds were prepared from the corresponding heteroleptic tin(II) chloro-analogue, [Sn{2-[(Me3Si)2C]C5H4N}Cl], and thus demonstrate the utility of this compound as a precursor to further examples of heteroleptic tin(II) derivatives: such compounds are often unstable with respect to ligand redistribution. In each case, the central tin(II) is three-co-ordinate. Crystals of trimeric [{Sn(C6H2Pri3-2,4,6)2}3] 3 were found to undergo a solid state phase transition, which may be ascribed to ordering of the ligand isopropyl groups. At 220 K the unit cell is orthorhombic, space group Pna21, compared with monoclinic, space group P21/c, for the same crystals at 298 K, in which there is an effective tripling of the now b (originally c) axis. This result illustrates the extreme crowding generated by this bulky aryl ligand.

In vitro fermentation and prebiotic potential of novel low molecular weight polysaccharides derived from agar and alginate seaweeds

Fermentation properties and prebiotic potential of novel low molecular weight polysaccharides (LMWPs) derived from agar and alginate bearing seaweeds was investigated. Ten LMWPs were supplemented to pH, temperature controlled anaerobic batch cultures inoculated with human feces from three donors, in triplicate. Microbiota changes were monitored using Fluorescent in-situ hybridization and short chain fatty acids, the fermentation end products were analysed using gas chromatography. Of the ten LMWPs tested, Gelidium seaweed CC2253 of molecular weight 64.64 KDa showed a significant increase in bifidobacterial populations from log(10) 8.06 at 0 h to log(10) 8.55 at 24 h (p = 0.018). For total bacterial populations, alginate powder CC2238 produced a significant increase from log(10) 9.01 at 0 h to log(10) 9.58 at 24 h (p = 0.032). No changes were observed in the other bacterial groups tested viz. Bacteroides, Lactobacilli/Enterococci, Eubacterium rectale/Clostridium coccoides and Clostridium histolyticum. The polysaccharides also showed significant increases in total SCFA production, particularly acetic and propionic acids, indicating that they were readily fermented. In conclusion, some LMWPs derived from agar and alginate bearing seaweeds were fermented by gut bacteria and exhibited potential to be used a novel source of prebiotics.

In vitro fermentation of alternansucrase raffinose-derived oligosaccharides by human gut bacteria

In this work, in vitro fermentation of alternansucrase raffinose-derived oligosaccharides, previously fractionated according to their degree of polymerization (DP; from DP4 to DP10), was carried out using small-scale pH-controlled batch cultures at 37 °C under anaerobic conditions with human feces. Bifidogenic activity of oligosaccharides with DP4�6 similar to that of lactulose was observed; however, in general, a significant growth of lactic acid bacteria Bacteroides, Atopobium cluster, and Clostridium histolyticum group was not shown during incubation. Acetic acid was the main short chain fatty acid (SCFA) produced during the fermentation process; the highest levels of this acid were shown by alternansucrase raffinose acceptor pentasaccharides at 10 h (63.11 mM) and heptasaccharides at 24 h (54.71 mM). No significant differences between the gas volume produced by the mixture of raffinose-based oligosaccharides (DP5�DP10) and inulin after 24 h of incubation were detected, whereas lower gas volume was generated by DP4 oligosaccharides. These findings indicate that novel raffinose-derived oligosaccharides (DP4�DP10) could be a new source of prebiotic carbohydrates.

Modulation of endothelial cell KCa3.1 Channels during endothelium-derived hyperpolarizing factor signaling in mesenteric resistance arteries

Arterial hyperpolarization to acetylcholine (ACh) reflects coactivation of KCa3.1 (IKCa) channels and KCa2.3 (SKCa) channels in the endothelium that transfers through myoendothelial gap junctions and diffusible factor(s) to affect smooth muscle relaxation (endothelium-derived hyperpolarizing factor [EDHF] response). However, ACh can differentially activate KCa3.1 and KCa2.3 channels, and we investigated the mechanisms responsible in rat mesenteric arteries. KCa3.1 channel input to EDHF hyperpolarization was enhanced by reducing external [Ca2+]o but blocked either with forskolin to activate protein kinase A or by limiting smooth muscle [Ca2+]i increases stimulated by phenylephrine depolarization. Imaging [Ca2+]i within the endothelial cell projections forming myoendothelial gap junctions revealed increases in cytoplasmic [Ca2+]i during endothelial stimulation with ACh that were unaffected by simultaneous increases in muscle [Ca2+]i evoked by phenylephrine. If gap junctions were uncoupled, KCa3.1 channels became the predominant input to EDHF hyperpolarization, and relaxation was inhibited with ouabain, implicating a crucial link through Na+/K+-ATPase. There was no evidence for an equivalent link through KCa2.3 channels nor between these channels and the putative EDHF pathway involving natriuretic peptide receptor-C. Reconstruction of confocal z-stack images from pressurized arteries revealed KCa2.3 immunostain at endothelial cell borders, including endothelial cell projections, whereas KCa3.1 channels and Na+/K+-ATPase {alpha}2/{alpha}3 subunits were highly concentrated in endothelial cell projections and adjacent to myoendothelial gap junctions. Thus, extracellular [Ca2+]o appears to modify KCa3.1 channel activity through a protein kinase A-dependent mechanism independent of changes in endothelial [Ca2+]i. The resulting hyperpolarization links to arterial relaxation largely through Na+/K+-ATPase, possibly reflecting K+ acting as an EDHF. In contrast, KCa2.3 hyperpolarization appears mainly to affect relaxation through myoendothelial gap junctions. Overall, these data suggest that K+ and myoendothelial coupling evoke EDHF-mediated relaxation through distinct, definable pathways.

A method to weight three categories of adaptive thermal comfort

The adaptive thermal comfort theory considers people as active rather than passive recipients in response to ambient physical thermal stimuli, in contrast with conventional, heat-balance-based, thermal comfort theory. Occupants actively interact with the environments they occupy by means of utilizing adaptations in terms of physiological, behavioural and psychological dimensions to achieve ‘real world’ thermal comfort. This paper introduces a method of quantifying the physiological, behavioural and psychological portions of the adaptation process by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) based on the case studies conducted in the UK and China. Apart from three categories of adaptations which are viewed as criteria, six possible alternatives are considered: physiological indices/health status, the indoor environment, the outdoor environment, personal physical factors, environmental control and thermal expectation. With the AHP technique, all the above-mentioned criteria, factors and corresponding elements are arranged in a hierarchy tree and quantified by using a series of pair-wise judgements. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to improve the quality of these results. The proposed quantitative weighting method provides researchers with opportunities to better understand the adaptive mechanisms and reveal the significance of each category for the achievement of adaptive thermal comfort.

In vitro fermentation of lactulose-derived oligosaccharides by mixed fecal microbiota

Fermentation properties of oligosaccharides derived from lactulose (OsLu) and lactose (GOS) have been assessed in pH-controlled anaerobic batch cultures using lactulose and Vivinal-GOS as reference carbohydrates. Changes in gut bacterial populations and their metabolic activities were monitored over 24 h by fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) and by measurement of short-chain fatty acid (SCFA) production. Lactulose-derived oligosaccharides were selectively fermented by Bifidobacterium and lactic acid bacterial populations producing higher SCFA concentrations compared to GOS. The highest total SCFA production was from Vivinal-GOS > lactulose > OsLu > GOS. Longer incubation periods produced a selective fermentation of OsLu when they were used as a carbon source reaching the highest selective index scores. The new oligosaccharides may constitute a good alternative to lactulose, and they could belong to a new generation of prebiotics to be used as a functional ingredient for improving the composition of gut microflora.