Pricing the cost of an election: the impact of the 2014 elections on stock markets

Qual o efeito de eleições em ativos reais? É possível mensurar diretamente a diferença de preços mesmo que só possamos enxergar um dos resultados potenciais? Essa dissertação estima esses efeitos utilizando metodologia baseada em opções sobre ações. O modelo aqui desenvolvido adaptção tradicional Black-Scholes para incorporar dois novos parâmetros: um salto no preço do ativo perfeitamente antecipado e uma série de probabilidades diárias refletindo as crenças sobre quem venceria a corrida eleitoral. Aplicamos esse método para o caso brasileiro das Eleições Presidenciais de 2014 e a Petrobras - uma importante companhia do setor petrolífero do país -utilizando dados de bolsa do segundo turno das eleições. Os resultados encontrados mostram uma diferença de 65-77% para o valor da companhia, dependendo de quem vencesse nas urnas. Isso é equivalente a aproximadamente 2.5% do PIB de 2014 do país.

Markets-as-networks theory: a review

This paper exposes the development of markets-as-networks theory from formal inception in the mid-1970s until 2010 state-of-the-art, en route presenting its historical roots. This largely European-based theory challenges the conventional, dichotomous view of the business world as including firms and markets, arguing for the existence of relational governance structures (the so-called ‘‘interfirm cooperation’’) in addition to hierarchical and transactional ones.

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS of AMAZON RIVER PRAWN FARMING TO THE MARKETS FOR LIVE BAIT and JUVENILES IN PANTANAL, BRAZIL

The implementation of a hypothetical aquaculture facility with hatchery, nursery and grow-out earthen ponds for raising the Amazon River Prawn Macrobrachium amazonicum in the Pantanal was considered. Eight larviculture cycles per year were projected: four to produce post-larvae for stocking in grow-out bait ponds, and four to stock nursery tanks to sell juveniles as seed to grow-out farms, which produce prawns for human consumption. Annual production would be 146,880 dozen bait prawns and 2,938 thousand juveniles. The assumed sale prices were US$ 1.38 per dozen baits and US$ 15.39 per thousand juveniles. The net present value was US$ 555,890.79, internal rate of return was 48% per year, payback period was 2.4 years and benefit-cost ratio was 3.90. The breakeven price to cover total costs per dozen baits was US$ 0.70 and per thousand juveniles was US$ 17.00, indicating that the selling price assumed for juveniles in base scenario is not realistic. Net return was US$ 84,773.80. The results indicate that this activity would be a lucrative and attractive investment in the Pantanal.

Combined Pool/Bilateral Short-Term Hydrothermal Scheduling Model for Day-Ahead Energy Markets

This paper proposes a combined pool/bilateral short term hydrothermal scheduling model (PDC) for the context of the day-ahead energy markets. Some innovative aspects are introduced in the model, such as: i) the hydraulic generation is optimized through the opportunity cost function proposed; ii) there is no decoupling between physical and commercial dispatches, as is the case today in Brazil; iii) interrelationships between pool and bilateral markets are represented through a single optimization problem; iv) risk exposures related to future deficits are intrinsically mitigated; v) the model calculates spot prices in an hourly basis and the results show a coherent correlation between hydrological conditions and calculated prices. The proposed PDC model is solved by a primal-dual interior point method and is evaluated by simulations involving a test system. The results are focused on sensitivity analyses involving the parameters of the model, in such a way to emphasize its main modeling aspects. The results show that the proposed PDC provides a conceptual means for short term price formation for hydrothermal systems.

Time series analysis for minority game simulations of financial markets

The minority game (MG) model introduced recently provides promising insights into the understanding of the evolution of prices, indices and rates in the financial markets. In this paper we perform a time series analysis of the model employing tools from statistics, dynamical systems theory and stochastic processes. Using benchmark systems and a financial index for comparison, several conclusions are obtained about the generating mechanism for this kind of evolution. The motion is deterministic, driven by occasional random external perturbation. When the interval between two successive perturbations is sufficiently large, one can find low dimensional chaos in this regime. However, the full motion of the MG model is found to be similar to that of the first differences of the SP500 index: stochastic, nonlinear and (unit root) stationary. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

A decentralized approach for optimal reactive power dispatch using a Lagrangian decomposition method

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Bank lending to emerging markets: crossing the border

Includes bibliography

Proposals for curbing the boom-bust cycle in the supply of capital to emerging markets

Includes bibliography

Financial regulation and supervision in emerging markets: the experience of Latin America since the Tequila crisis

Includes bibliography

Economic reforms, growth and employment: labour markets in Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Debt financing rollercoaster: Latin American and Caribbean access to international bond markets since the debt crisis, 1982-2012

Includes bibliography

Labour markets, worker protection and lifelong learning in a global economy: experiences and perspectives of Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Globalization of financial markets: implications for the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Report on derivatives markets: stabilizing or speculative impact on Chile and a comparison with Brazil

Includes bibliography