A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

Novel loci affecting iron homeostasis and their effects in individuals at risk for hemochromatosis

Variation in body iron is associated with or causes diseases, including anaemia and iron overload. Here, we analyse genetic association data on biochemical markers of iron status from 11 European-population studies, with replication in eight additional cohorts (total up to 48,972 subjects). We find 11 genome-wide-significant (P<5 × 10−8) loci, some including known iron-related genes (​HFE, ​SLC40A1, ​TF, ​TFR2, ​TFRC, ​TMPRSS6) and others novel (​ABO, ​ARNTL, ​FADS2, ​NAT2, ​TEX14). SNPs at ​ARNTL, ​TF, and ​TFR2 affect iron markers in ​HFE C282Y homozygotes at risk for hemochromatosis. There is substantial overlap between our iron loci and loci affecting erythrocyte and lipid phenotypes. These results will facilitate investigation of the roles of iron in disease.

A meta-analysis of 87,040 individuals identifies 23 new susceptibility loci for prostate cancer

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 76 variants associated with prostate cancer risk predominantly in populations of European ancestry. To identify additional susceptibility loci for this common cancer, we conducted a meta-analysis of > 10 million SNPs in 43,303 prostate cancer cases and 43,737 controls from studies in populations of European, African, Japanese and Latino ancestry. Twenty-three new susceptibility loci were identified at association P < 5 × 10(-8); 15 variants were identified among men of European ancestry, 7 were identified in multi-ancestry analyses and 1 was associated with early-onset prostate cancer. These 23 variants, in combination with known prostate cancer risk variants, explain 33% of the familial risk for this disease in European-ancestry populations. These findings provide new regions for investigation into the pathogenesis of prostate cancer and demonstrate the usefulness of combining ancestrally diverse populations to discover risk loci for disease.

Choosing appropriate contract methods for design-build projects

For design-build (DB) projects, owners normally use lump sum and Guaranteed Maximum Price (GMP) as the major contract payment provisions. However, there was a lack of empirical studies to compare the project performance within different contract types and investigate how different project characteristics affect the owners’ selection of contract arrangement. Project information from Design-build Institute of America (DBIA) database was collected to reveal the statistical relationship between different project characteristics and contract types and to compare project performance between lump sum and GMP contract. The results show that lump sum is still the most frequently used contract method for DB projects, especially in the public sector. However, projects using GMP contract are more likely to have less schedule delay and cost overrun as compared to those with lump sum contract. The chi-square tests of cross tabulations reveal that project type, owner type, and procurement method affect the selection of contract types significantly. Civil infrastructure rather than industrial engineering project tends to use lump sum more frequently; and qualification-oriented contractor selection process resorts to GMP more often compared with cost-oriented process. The findings of this research contribute to the current body of knowledge concerning the effect of associated project characteristics on contract type selection. Overall, the results of this study provide empirical evidence from real DB projects that can be used by owners to select appropriate contract types and eventually improve future project performance.

Mobile app rating scale: A new tool for assessing the quality of health mobile apps

Background The use of mobile apps for health and well being promotion has grown exponentially in recent years. Yet, there is currently no app-quality assessment tool beyond “star”-ratings. Objective The objective of this study was to develop a reliable, multidimensional measure for trialling, classifying, and rating the quality of mobile health apps. Methods A literature search was conducted to identify articles containing explicit Web or app quality rating criteria published between January 2000 and January 2013. Existing criteria for the assessment of app quality were categorized by an expert panel to develop the new Mobile App Rating Scale (MARS) subscales, items, descriptors, and anchors. There were sixty well being apps that were randomly selected using an iTunes search for MARS rating. There were ten that were used to pilot the rating procedure, and the remaining 50 provided data on interrater reliability. Results There were 372 explicit criteria for assessing Web or app quality that were extracted from 25 published papers, conference proceedings, and Internet resources. There were five broad categories of criteria that were identified including four objective quality scales: engagement, functionality, aesthetics, and information quality; and one subjective quality scale; which were refined into the 23-item MARS. The MARS demonstrated excellent internal consistency (alpha = .90) and interrater reliability intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC = .79). Conclusions The MARS is a simple, objective, and reliable tool for classifying and assessing the quality of mobile health apps. It can also be used to provide a checklist for the design and development of new high quality health apps.

Music in the prevention and treatment of substance misuse

Issues Research shows that young people at risk of developing a substance use disorder often use substances to deal with problems, particularly relationship problems and emotional problems. Music listening is a widely available and engaging activity that may help young people address these problem areas. This study was part of a larger project to develop a phone app for young people in which they use music for emotional wellbeing. Approach Three focus groups with young people aged 15–25 years were conducted and the transcripts were analysed by three of the authors using a thematic analysis procedure (Braun & Clarke, 2006). Key Findings: Young people used music in four main ways to achieve wellbeing: relationship building through sharing music; cre- ating an ambience using music; using music to experience an emotion more fully; and using music to modify an emotion. Several mecha- nisms by which music achieved these functions were identified. Par- ticipants also articulated specific times when they would not use music and why. Discussion and Conclusions The information from these focus groups provides many avenues for the development of the app and for understanding how music listening helps young people to achieve wellbeing. These ideas can readily be used with young people at risk of developing substance use problems as it gives them an engaging and low cost alternative for managing their emotions and building relationships.

Mood enhancement using smartphone apps

The significant physical, emotional, educational and social developmental challenges faced by adolescents and young adults are associated with high levels of emotional vulnerability. Thus, the development and use of effective emotion-regulation strategies during this period is critical. Music listening is commonly used by young people to identify, express, enhance and regulate their emotions. Modern mobile technology provides an engaging, easily accessible means of assisting young people with identifying and managing emotions through music. A systematic contextual review of iPhone applications addressing emotions through music was conducted. Their quality was evaluated by two independent raters using the Mobile App Rating Scale (MARS). Three participatory design workshops (PDW; N=13, 6 males, 7 females; age 15-25) were conducted, exploring young people’s use of music to enhance wellbeing. Young people were also asked to trial existing mood and music apps and to conceptualise their ultimate mood-targeting music application. Of the identified 117 music apps, 20 met inclusion criteria (to play songs, not sounds; priced below $5.00). Characteristics and overall quality of the music apps are described and key features of the five highest- rating apps are presented. Thematic analysis of the PDW content identified the following music affect- regulation strategies: relationship building, modifying cognitions, modifying emotions, and immersing in emotions (i.e. habituation or mood enhancement). The application of key learnings from the mobile app review and PDW to the design and development of the new music eScape app will be presented. Implications for future research and for applying the new app in clinical practice are discussed.

Gender-specific differences of interaction between obesity and air pollution on stroke and cardiovascular diseases in Chinese adults from a high pollution range area: A large population based cross sectional study

Background Little information exists regarding the interaction effects of obesity with long-term air pollution exposure on cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and stroke in areas of high pollution. The aim of the present study is to examine whether obesity modifies CVD-related associations among people living in an industrial province of northeast China. Methods We studied 24,845 Chinese adults, aged 18 to 74 years old, from three Northeastern Chinese cities in 2009 utilizing a cross-sectional study design. Body weight and height were measured by trained observers. Overweight and obesity were defined as a body mass index (BMI) between 25–29.9 and ≥ 30 kg/m2, respectively. Prevalence rate and related risk factors of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were investigated by a questionnaire. Three-year (2006–2008) average concentrations of particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxides (NO2), and ozone (O3) were measured by fixed monitoring stations. All the participants lived within 1 km of air monitoring sites. Two-level logistic regression (personal level and district-specific pollutant level) was used to examine these effects, controlling for covariates. Results We observed significant interactions between exposure and obesity on CVDs and stroke. The associations between annual pollutant concentrations and CVDs and stroke were strongest in obese subjects (OR 1.15–1.47 for stroke, 1.33–1.59 for CVDs), less strong in overweight subjects (OR 1.22–1.35 for stroke, 1.07–1.13 for CVDs), and weakest in normal weight subjects (OR ranged from 0.98–1.01 for stroke, 0.93–1.15 for CVDs). When stratified by gender, these interactions were significant only in women. Conclusions Study findings indicate that being overweight and obese may enhance the effects of air pollution on the prevalence of CVDs and stroke in Northeastern metropolitan China. Further studies will be needed to investigate the temporality of BMI relative to exposure and onset of disease.

Designing a mobile social tool that moderates drinking

A novel mobile social networking tool uses peer support to facilitate responsible drinking among young women. Focus group reports indicate that the tool’s design is easy to use and its functionalities would help peers reduce risk during drinking sessions.

A study on the evolution of regional structure of foreign engineering consultation industry in China [我国对外工程咨询业区域结构演变研究]

Based on the construction industry of 27 province over the period of 1995-2008,this paper analyzes the evolution of regional structure of foreign engineering consultation industry.It is found that this industry translates weak overall strength,unbalanced regional structure to a more developed and balanced status,keeps pushing this change can improve the strength of our country’s engineering consultation industry,improve the international competition of construction.

On the growth process of Cu2ZnSn(S,Se)4 absorber layer formed by selenizing Cu–ZnS–SnS precursors and its photovoltaic performance

Sputtering and subsequent sulfurization(orselenization)is one of the methods that have been extensively employed to fabricate Cu2ZnSn(S,Se)4 (CZTSSe) thin films. However, there are limited reports on the effect of precursor stacking order of the sputtered source materials on the properties of the synthesized CZTSSe films. In this work,the morphology and crystallization process of the CZTSSe films which were prepared by selenizing Cu–ZnS–SnS precursor layers with different stacking sequences and the adhesion property between the as-synthesized CZTSSe layer and Mosubstrate have been thoroughly investigated. It has been found that the growth of CZTSSe material and the morphology of the film strongly depend on the location of Culayer in the precursor film. The formation of CZTSSe starts from the diffusion of Cu–Se to Sn(S,Se)layert o form Cu–Sn–(S,Se) compound,followed by the reaction with Zn(S,Se). The investigation of themorphology of the CZTSSe films has shown that large grains are formed in the film with the precursor stacking order of Mo/SnS/ZnS/Cu,which is attributed to a bottom-to-top growth mechanism. In contrast, the film made from a precursor with a stacking sequence of Mo/ZnS/ SnS/Cu is mainly consisted of small grains due to a top-to-bottom growth mechanism. The best CZTSSe solar cell with energy conversion efficiency of3.35%has been achieved with the selenized Mo/ZnS/ SnS/Cu film, which is attributed to a good contact between the absorber layer and the Mosubstrate.

QoE modelling for VP9 and H.265 videos on mobile devices

Current mobile devices and streaming video services support high definition (HD) video, increasing expectation for more contents. HD video streaming generally requires large bandwidth, exerting pressures on existing networks. New generation of video compression codecs, such as VP9 and H.265/HEVC, are expected to be more effective for reducing bandwidth. Existing studies to measure the impact of its compression on users’ perceived quality have not been focused on mobile devices. Here we propose new Quality of Experience (QoE) models that consider both subjective and objective assessments of mobile video quality. We introduce novel predictors, such as the correlations between video resolution and size of coding unit, and achieve a high goodness-of-fit to the collected subjective assessment data (adjusted R-square >83%). The performance analysis shows that H.265 can potentially achieve 44% to 59% bit rate saving compared to H.264/AVC, slightly better than VP9 at 33% to 53%, depending on video content and resolution.

Comparison of sustainable community rating tools in Australia

The community is the basic unit of urban development, and appropriate assessment tools are needed for communities to evaluate and facilitate decision making concerning sustainable community development and reduce the detrimental effects of urban community actions on the environment. Existing research into sustainable community rating tools focuses primarily on those that are internationally recognized to describe their advantages and future challenges. However, the differences between rating tools due to different regional conditions, situations and characteristics have yet to be addressed. In doing this, this paper examines three sustainable community rating tools in Australia, namely Green Star-Communities PILOT, EnviroDevelopment and VicUrban Sustainability Charter (Master Planned Community Assessment Tool). In order to identify their similarities, differences and advantages these are compared in terms of sustainability coverage, prerequisites, adaptation to locality, scoring and weighting, participation, presentation of results, and application process. These results provide the stakeholders of sustainable community development projects with a better understanding of the available rating tools in Australia and assist with evaluation and decision making.

Digital design interventions for creating new presentations of self in public urban places

During everyday urban life, people spend time in public urban places waiting for specific events to occur. During these times, people sometimes tend to engage with their information and communication technology (ICT) devices in a way that shuts off interactions with collocated people. These devices could also be used to better connect with the urban space and collocated people within. This chapter presents and discusses the impact of three design interventions on the urban user experience enabling collocated people to share lightweight, non-privacy-sensitive data in the urban space. We investigate and discuss the impact on the urban experience under the notions of people, place, and technology with an emphasis on how the sharing of non-privacy-sensitive data can positively transform anonymous public urban places in various ways through anonymous digital augmentations.

Time and cost performance of design–build projects

The design-build (DB) delivery method has been widely used in the United States due to its reputed superior cost and time performance. However, rigorous studies have produced inconclusive support and only in terms of overall results, with few attempts being made to relate project characteristics with performance levels. This paper provides a larger and more finely grained analysis of a set of 418 DB projects from the online project database of the Design-Build Institute of America (DBIA), in terms of the time-overrun rate (TOR), early start rate (ESR), early completion rate (ECR) and cost overrun rate (COR) associated with project type (e.g., commercial/institutional buildings and civil infrastructure projects), owners (e.g., Department of Defense and private corporations), procurement methods (e.g., ‘best value with discussion’ and qualifications-based selection), contract methods (e.g., lump sum and GMP) and LEED levels (e.g., gold and silver). The results show ‘best value with discussion’ to be the dominant procurement method and lump sum the most frequently used contract method. The DB method provides relatively good time performance, with more than 75% of DB projects completed on time or before schedule. However, with more than 50% of DB projects cost overrunning, the DB advantage of cost saving remains uncertain. ANOVA tests indicate that DB projects within different procurement methods have significantly different time performance and that different owner types and contract methods significantly affect cost performance. In addition to contributing to empirical knowledge concerning the cost and time performance of DB projects with new solid evidence from a large sample size, the findings and practical implications of this study are beneficial to owners in understanding the likely schedule and budget implications involved for their particular project characteristics.