A comparison of sales response predictions from demand models applied to store-level versus panel data

In order to generate sales promotion response predictions, marketing analysts estimate demand models using either disaggregated (consumer-level) or aggregated (store-level) scanner data. Comparison of predictions from these demand models is complicated by the fact that models may accommodate different forms of consumer heterogeneity depending on the level of data aggregation. This study shows via simulation that demand models with various heterogeneity specifications do not produce more accurate sales response predictions than a homogeneous demand model applied to store-level data, with one major exception: a random coefficients model designed to capture within-store heterogeneity using store-level data produced significantly more accurate sales response predictions (as well as better fit) compared to other model specifications. An empirical application to the paper towel product category adds additional insights. This article has supplementary material online.

An analysis of food demand in Peru:implications for food-feed competition

In their policy proposals on how best to stimulate economic growth, economists have been increasingly emphasizing free markets. It is, however, possible that free-market-led economic growth can lead to increased income inequity which can further increase poverty. One of the more interesting but thus far insufficiently explored mechanisms for the latter is food–feed competition. Using Peruvian Living Standard Survey (PLSS) data for 1985–86 and 1990, the paper examines the demand patterns of households and concludes that the empirical evidence is in agreement with the hypotheses underlying the theory of food–feed competition.

Cross-category demand effects of price promotions

Do promotions in a certain category lead to higher revenues in other categories? If so, to what degree? The answers to these questions are highly relevant for retailers that supply products in different categories. Empirical findings in studies that consider a limited number of categories indicate small promotional cross-category effects. This study develops a framework to determine the impact of price promotions on category revenues that include interdependencies among a substantial number of categories at the category demand level. The own- and cross-category demand effects are moderated by variables such as promotion intensity, category characteristics (own-category effects), and spatial distances between shelf locations (cross-category effects). The empirical results based on daily store-level scanner data show that approximately half of all price promotions expand own-category revenues, especially for categories with deeper supported discounts. There is a high probability (61%) that a price promotion affects sales of at least one other category. The number of categories affected is not greater than two. Moderate evidence supports the existence of cross-promotional effects between categories more closely located in a store.

New measures of job control, cognitive demand and production responsibility

Recent research has highlighted several job characteristics salient to employee well-being and behavior for which there are no adequate generally applicable measures. These include timing and method control, monitoring and problem-solving demand, and production responsibility. In this article, an attempt to develop measures of these constructs provided encouraging results. Confirmatory factor analyses applied to data from 2 samples of shop-floor employees showed a consistent fit to a common 5-factor measurement model. Scales corresponding to each of the dimensions showed satisfactory internal and test–retest reliabilities. As expected, the scales also discriminated between employees in different jobs and employees working with contrasting technologies.

Attentional demand and cost responsibility as stressors in shopfloor jobs

Two studies were conducted to test for the effects of attentional demand and cost responsibility on psychological strain. One was a field experiment involving operators of computer-based manufacturing equipment, and the other was a cross-sectional investigation of employees in a wide range of jobs. The results showed increased strain only for those in jobs high on both attentional demand and cost responsibility. Implications for job design for new manufacturing technologies are discussed.

The micro-politics of operational adjustment:veto players and the consolidation of demand in the NHS

Recent reports about procurement within the NHS have been highly critical. One problem identified in the reports is the fragmentation of NHS demand across an unnecessarily large number of suppliers. This fragmentation is said to increase transaction costs, reduce opportunities for scale economies and reduce NHS leverage over suppliers. It has been suggested, therefore, that an important way of improving procurement in the NHS is the better consolidation of demand with a lower number of preferred suppliers. However, such a policy, because it will create ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ within NHS organisations, has political as well as technical and practical ramifications. In this article, the authors present a model, the Veto Players Model, in order to assist managers to address these political ramifications. In the article, the authors not only demonstrate the utility of this model with regard to demand consolidation policies, but also argue that the model provides useful lessons for change management initiatives more generally.

Exploring demand and production planning challenges in the food processing industry:a case study

This paper explores demand and production management challenges in the food processing industry. The goal is to identify the main production planning constraints and secondly to explore how each of these constraints affects company’s performance in terms of costs and customer service level. A single case study methodology was preferred since it enabled the collection of in-depth data. Findings suggest that product shelf life, carcass utilization and production lead time are the main constraints affecting supply chain efficiency and hence, a single planning approach is not appropriate when different products have different technological and processing characteristics.

The relationship between the level of domestic demand in Britain an dthe exports of the British motor car industry

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Benefits of retailer-supplier partnership initiatives under time-varying demand:a comparative analytical study

This paper aims to help supply chain managers to determine the value of retailer-supplier partnership initiatives beyond information sharing (IS) according to their specific business environment under time-varying demand conditions. For this purpose, we use integer linear programming models to quantify the benefits that can be accrued by a retailer, a supplier and system as a whole from shift in inventory ownership and shift in decision-making power with that of IS. The results of a detailed numerical study pertaining to static time horizon reveal that the shift in inventory ownership provides system-wide cost benefits in specific settings. Particularly, when it induces the retailer to order larger quantities and the supplier also prefers such orders due to significantly high setup and shipment costs. We observe that the relative benefits of shift in decision-making power are always higher than the shift in inventory ownership under all the conditions. The value of the shift in decision-making power is greater than IS particularly when the variability of underlying demand is low and time-dependent variation in production cost is high. However, when the shipment cost is negligible and order issuing efficiency of the supplier is low, the cost benefits of shift in decision-making power beyond IS are not significant. © 2012 Taylor & Francis.

Breaks in the UK household sector money demand function

We use non-parametric procedures to identify breaks in the underlying series of UK household sector money demand functions. Money demand functions are estimated using cointegration techniques and by employing both the Simple Sum and Divisia measures of money. P-star models are also estimated for out-of-sample inflation forecasting. Our findings suggest that the presence of breaks affects both the estimation of cointegrated money demand functions and the inflation forecasts. P-star forecast models based on Divisia measures appear more accurate at longer horizons and the majority of models with fundamentals perform better than a random walk model.

Design and development of logistics workflow systems for demand management with RFID

This paper discusses demand and supply chain management and examines how artificial intelligence techniques and RFID technology can enhance the responsiveness of the logistics workflow. This proposed system is expected to have a significant impact on the performance of logistics networks by virtue of its capabilities to adapt unexpected supply and demand changes in the volatile marketplace with the unique feature of responsiveness with the advanced technology, Radio Frequency Identification (RFID). Recent studies have found that RFID and artificial intelligence techniques drive the development of total solution in logistics industry. Apart from tracking the movement of the goods, RFID is able to play an important role to reflect the inventory level of various distribution areas. In today’s globalized industrial environment, the physical logistics operations and the associated flow of information are the essential elements for companies to realize an efficient logistics workflow scenario. Basically, a flexible logistics workflow, which is characterized by its fast responsiveness in dealing with customer requirements through the integration of various value chain activities, is fundamental to leverage business performance of enterprises. The significance of this research is the demonstration of the synergy of using a combination of advanced technologies to form an integrated system that helps achieve lean and agile logistics workflow.

Refractive error, cognitive demand and nearwork-induced transient myopia

Purpose. Whereas many previous studies have identified the association between sustained near work and myopia, few have assessed the influence of concomitant levels of cognitive effort. This study investigates the effect of cognitive effort on near-work induced transient myopia (NITM). Methods. Subjects comprised of six early onset myopes (EOM; mean age 23.7 yrs; mean onset 10.8 yrs), six late-onset myopes (LOM; mean age 23.2 yrs; mean onset 20.0 yrs) and six emmetropes (EMM; mean age 23.8 yrs). Dynamic, monocular, ocular accommodation was measured with the Shin-Nippon SRW-5000 autorefractor. Subjects engaged passively or actively in a 5 minute arithmetic sum checking task presented monocularly on an LCD monitor via a Badal optical system. In all conditions the task was initially located at near (4.50 D) and immediately following the task instantaneously changed to far (0.00 D) for a further 5 minutes. The combinations of active (A) and passive (P) cognition were randomly allocated as P:P; A:P; A:A; P:A. Results. For the initial near task, LOMs were shown to have a significantly less accurate accommodative response than either EOMs or EMMs (p < 0.001). For the far task, post hoc analyses for refraction identified EOMs as demonstrating significant NITM compared to LOMs (p < 0.05), who in turn showed greater NITM than EMMs (p < 0.001). The data show that for EOMs the level of cognitive activity operating during the near and far tasks determines the persistence of NITM; persistence being maximal when active cognition at near is followed by passive cognition at far. Conclusions. Compared with EMMs, EOMs and LOMs are particularly susceptible to NITM such that sustained near vision reduces subsequent accommodative accuracy for far vision. It is speculated that the marked NITM found in EOM may be a consequence of the crystalline lens thinning shown to be a developmental feature of EOM. Whereas the role of small amounts of retinal defocus in myopigenesis remains equivocal, the results show that account needs to be taken of cognitive demand in assessing phenomena such as NITM.

Dimensioning of Telecommunication Network Based on Quality of Services Demand and Detailed Behaviour of Users

The aim of this paper is to be determined the network capacity (number of necessary internal switching lines) based on detailed users’ behaviour and demanded quality of service parameters in an overall telecommunication system. We consider detailed conceptual and its corresponded analytical traffic model of telecommunication system with (virtual) circuit switching, in stationary state with generalized input flow, repeated calls, limited number of homogeneous terminals and losses due to abandoned and interrupted dialing, blocked and interrupted switching, not available intent terminal, blocked and abandoned ringing (absent called user) and abandoned conversation. We propose an analytical - numerical solution for finding the number of internal switching lines and values of the some basic traffic parameters as a function of telecommunication system state. These parameters are requisite for maintenance demand level of network quality of service (QoS). Dependencies, based on the numericalanalytical results are shown graphically. For proposed conceptual and its corresponding analytical model a network dimensioning task (NDT) is formulated, solvability of the NDT and the necessary conditions for analytical solution are researched as well. It is proposed a rule (algorithm) and computer program for calculation of the corresponded number of the internal switching lines, as well as corresponded values of traffic parameters, making the management of QoS easily.