Learning about Bayesian networks for forensic interpretation : An example based on the "the problem of multiple propositions"

Both, Bayesian networks and probabilistic evaluation are gaining more and more widespread use within many professional branches, including forensic science. Notwithstanding, they constitute subtle topics with definitional details that require careful study. While many sophisticated developments of probabilistic approaches to evaluation of forensic findings may readily be found in published literature, there remains a gap with respect to writings that focus on foundational aspects and on how these may be acquired by interested scientists new to these topics. This paper takes this as a starting point to report on the learning about Bayesian networks for likelihood ratio based, probabilistic inference procedures in a class of master students in forensic science. The presentation uses an example that relies on a casework scenario drawn from published literature, involving a questioned signature. A complicating aspect of that case study - proposed to students in a teaching scenario - is due to the need of considering multiple competing propositions, which is an outset that may not readily be approached within a likelihood ratio based framework without drawing attention to some additional technical details. Using generic Bayesian networks fragments from existing literature on the topic, course participants were able to track the probabilistic underpinnings of the proposed scenario correctly both in terms of likelihood ratios and of posterior probabilities. In addition, further study of the example by students allowed them to derive an alternative Bayesian network structure with a computational output that is equivalent to existing probabilistic solutions. This practical experience underlines the potential of Bayesian networks to support and clarify foundational principles of probabilistic procedures for forensic evaluation.

Precast Concrete Panel Thickness for Epoxy-Coated Prestressing Strands, Volume 2, HR-353, 1994

This final report for Phase 1 of the research on epoxy-coated, prestressing strands in precast prestressed concrete (PC) panels has been published in two volumes. Volume 1--Technical Report contains the problem description, literature review, and survey results; descriptions of the test specimens, experimental tests, and analytical models; discussions of the analytical and experimental results; summary, conclusions, and recommendations; list of references; and acknowledgments. Volume 2--Supplemental Report contains additional information in the form of appendix material for Volume 1 on the questionnaires, strand forces, geometry of the specimens, concrete crack patterns that formed in the strand transfer length and strand development length specimens, concrete strains in the strand transfer length specimens, and load-point deflections and strand-slip measurements for the strand development length specimens. Appendix A contains the questionnaires that were sent to the design agencies and precast concrete producers. A summary of the results to the questions on the surveys are given as the number of respondents who provided the same answers and as paraphrased comments from the respondents. Appendix B contains graphs of strand force versus time, strand force versus temperature, and strand force versus strand cutting sequence for the concrete castings. Appendix C contains figures that show the location of each specimen in the prestress bed, the geometrical configurations for the strand transfer length (T-type) specimens and strand development length (D-type) specimens, and the concrete cracks that developed in some of the T-type specimens when they were prestressed. Appendix D contains figures that show the concrete cracks that developed in the D-type specimens during the strand development length tests. For each of these tests, the sequence of the failure for the specimen is specified. Appendix E contains graphs of concrete strain versus distance from the end of the T-type specimens that were instrumented with internal embedment strain gages. Appendix F contains graphs of load versus load-point deflection and load versus strand-slip for the strand development length tests of the D-type specimens.

Constitution, Diversification and Normalisation of a Health Problem: Organising the Fight against AIDS in Switzerland (1984-2005)

The article traces the formation, diversification and normalization of the AIDS cause in Switzerland. Particular emphasis is placed on interactions between the medical field, public authorities and associative space, the latter being understood as the place where individual and collective actors compete to define the cause. The authors argue that the major phases in the structuring of the struggle, the pace of state intervention and the creation of a multi-organizational field, can only be understood if one adopts a 'configurational perspective' attentive to the manner in which, in a given context and under the effect of particular constraints, key actors strategically interact and contribute to transforming their environment and their chances of reaching their goals. This approach takes into account the changing socio-biological characteristics of those who have committed themselves to the cause. In turn, internal movement divisions about how to respond to the epidemic as well as the changing perceptions of the disease have modified the opportunities for commitment, encouraging certain individual kinds of people and excluding others.

Degree of previous cutting in explaining the differences in diameter distributions between mature managed and natural Norway spruce forests

Abstract

Comparison of Setting Time Measured Using Ultrasonic Wave Propagation with Saw-Cutting Times on Pavements, TR-675, 2015

At present, there is little fundamental guidance available to assist contractors in choosing when to schedule saw cuts on joints. To conduct pavement finishing and sawing activities effectively, however, contractors need to know when a concrete mixture is going to reach initial set, or when the sawing window will open. Previous research investigated the use of the ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPV) method to predict the saw-cutting window for early entry sawing. The results indicated that the method has the potential to provide effective guidance to contractors as to when to conduct early entry sawing. The aim of this project was to conduct similar work to observe the correlation between initial setting and conventional sawing time. Sixteen construction sites were visited in Minnesota and Missouri over a two-year period. At each site, initial set was determined using a p-wave propagation technique with a commercial device. Calorimetric data were collected using a commercial semi-adiabatic device at a majority of the sites. Concrete samples were collected in front of the paver and tested using both methods with equipment that was set up next to the pavement during paving. The data collected revealed that the UPV method looks promising for early entry and conventional sawing in the field, both early entry and conventional sawing times can be predicted for the range of mixtures tested.

Growth and recruitment after mountain forest selective cutting in irregular spruce forest : a case study in northern Norway

Abstract

A hybrid algorithm combining metaheuristic with Monte Carlo simulation for solving the Stochastic Flow Shop problem

In this paper, a hybrid simulation-based algorithm is proposed for the StochasticFlow Shop Problem. The main idea of the methodology is to transform the stochastic problem into a deterministic problem and then apply simulation to the latter. In order to achieve this goal, we rely on Monte Carlo Simulation and an adapted version of a deterministic heuristic. This approach aims to provide flexibility and simplicity due to the fact that it is not constrained by any previous assumption and relies in well-tested heuristics.

A hybrid algorithm combining metaheuristic with Monte Carlo simulation for solving the Stochastic Flow Shop problem

In this paper, a hybrid simulation-based algorithm is proposed for the StochasticFlow Shop Problem. The main idea of the methodology is to transform the stochastic problem into a deterministic problem and then apply simulation to the latter. In order to achieve this goal, we rely on Monte Carlo Simulation and an adapted version of a deterministic heuristic. This approach aims to provide flexibility and simplicity due to the fact that it is not constrained by any previous assumption and relies in well-tested heuristics.

Time consumption and damage to the remaining stock in mechanised and motor manual pre-commercial thinning

Abstract

J2 effect and elliptic inclined periodic orbits in the collision three-body problem

The existence of a new class of inclined periodic orbits of the collision restricted three-body problem is shown. The symmetric periodic solutions found are perturbations of elliptic kepler orbits and they exist only for special values of the inclination and are related to the motion of a satellite around an oblate planet

Bayesian Networks and the Value of the Evidence for the Forensic Two-Trace Transfer Problem

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.