The Optimality of the Common Fisheries Policy: the Northern Stock of Hake

We evaluate the management of the Northern Stock of Hake during 1986-2001. A stochastic bioeconomic model is calibrated to match the main features of this fishing ground. We show how catches, biomass stock and profits would have been if the optimal Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) consistent with the target biomass implied by the Fischler’s Recovery Plan had been implemented. The main finding are: i) an optimal CFP would have generated profits of more than 667 millions euros, ii) if side-payments are allowed (implemented by ITQ’s, for example) these profits increase 26%.

A factor model of seasonality in stock returns

Published as an article in: The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2004, vol. 44, issue 2, pages 224-236.

Scenario Cluster Lagrangian Decomposition in two stage stochastic mixed 0-1 optimization

In this paper we introduce four scenario Cluster based Lagrangian Decomposition (CLD) procedures for obtaining strong lower bounds to the (optimal) solution value of two-stage stochastic mixed 0-1 problems. At each iteration of the Lagrangian based procedures, the traditional aim consists of obtaining the solution value of the corresponding Lagrangian dual via solving scenario submodels once the nonanticipativity constraints have been dualized. Instead of considering a splitting variable representation over the set of scenarios, we propose to decompose the model into a set of scenario clusters. We compare the computational performance of the four Lagrange multiplier updating procedures, namely the Subgradient Method, the Volume Algorithm, the Progressive Hedging Algorithm and the Dynamic Constrained Cutting Plane scheme for different numbers of scenario clusters and different dimensions of the original problem. Our computational experience shows that the CLD bound and its computational effort depend on the number of scenario clusters to consider. In any case, our results show that the CLD procedures outperform the traditional LD scheme for single scenarios both in the quality of the bounds and computational effort. All the procedures have been implemented in a C++ experimental code. A broad computational experience is reported on a test of randomly generated instances by using the MIP solvers COIN-OR and CPLEX for the auxiliary mixed 0-1 cluster submodels, this last solver within the open source engine COIN-OR. We also give computational evidence of the model tightening effect that the preprocessing techniques, cut generation and appending and parallel computing tools have in stochastic integer optimization. Finally, we have observed that the plain use of both solvers does not provide the optimal solution of the instances included in the testbed with which we have experimented but for two toy instances in affordable elapsed time. On the other hand the proposed procedures provide strong lower bounds (or the same solution value) in a considerably shorter elapsed time for the quasi-optimal solution obtained by other means for the original stochastic problem.

SEM and EDS Characterisation of Layering TiOx Growth onto the Cutting Tool Surface in Hard Drilling Processes of Ti-Al-V Alloys

10 p.

Growth variation and stock structure in North Pacific albacore

Working paper NPALB/87/21 submitted to the 10th North Pacific Albacore Workshop. Paper reports the results of ongoing research on validated age and growth models and the elucidation of stock structure for the North Pacific albacore. (Document pdf contains 22 pages)

Reference Points Based on Dynamic Optimisation: A Versatil Algorithm for Mixed Fishery Management with Bio-economic Agestructured Models

Single-species management objectives may not be consistent within mixed fisheries. They may lead species to unsafe situations, promote discarding of over-quota and/or misreporting of catches. We provide an algorithm for characterising bio-economic reference points for a mixed fishery as the steady-state solution of a dynamic optimal management problem. The optimisation problem takes into account: i) that species are fishing simultaneously in unselective fishing operations and ii)intertemporal discounting and fleet costs to relate reference points to discounted economic profits along optimal trajectories. We illustrate how the algorithm can be implemented by applying it to the European Northern Stock of Hake (Merluccius merluccius), where fleets also capture Northern megrim (Lepidorhombus whiffiagonis) and Northern anglerfish (Lophius piscatorius and Lophius budegassa). We find that optimal mixed management leads to a target reference point that is quite similar to the 2/3 of the Fmsy single-species (hake) target. Mixed management is superior to singlespecies management because it leads the fishery to higher discounted profits with higher long-term SSB for all species. We calculate that the losses due to the use of the Fmsy single-species (hake) target in this mixed fishery account for 11.4% of total discounted profits.

Stock assessment of protogynous fish: evaluating measures of spawning biomass used to estimate biological reference points

In stock assessments, recruitment is typically modeled as a function of females only. For protogynous stocks, however, disproportionate fishing on males increases the possibility of reduced fertilization rates. To incorporate the importance of males in protogynous stocks, assessment models have been used to predict recruitment not just from female spawning biomass (Sf), but also from that of males (Sm) or both sexes (Sb). We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the ability of these three measures to estimate biological reference points used in fishery management. Of the three, Sf provides best estimates if the potential for decreased fertilization is weak, whereas Sm is best only if the potential is very strong. In general, Sb estimates the true reference points most closely, which indicates that if the potential for decreased fertilization is moderate or unknown, Sb should be used in assessments of protogynous stocks. Moreover, for a broad range of scenarios, relative errors from Sf and Sb occur in opposite directions, indicating that estimates from these measures could be used to bound uncertainty.

Analysis of micro-indentation problem of a soft film on a hard substrate

Two stages have been observed in micro-indentation experiment of a soft film on a hard substrate. In the first stage, the hardness of the thin film decreases with increasing depth of indentation when indentation is shallow; and in the second stage, the hardness of the film increases with increasing depth of indentation when the indenter tip approaches the hard substrate. In this paper, the new strain gradient theory is used to analyze the micro-indentation behavior of a soft film on a hard substrate. Meanwhile, the classic plastic theory is also applied to investigating the problem. Comparing two theoretical results with the experiment data, one can find that the strain gradient theory can describe the experiment data at both the shallow and deep indentation depths quite well, while the classic theory can't explain the experiment results.

Stock assessment of loggerhead and leatherback sea turtles and An assessment of the impact of the pelagic longline fishery on the loggerhead and leatherback sea turtles of the Western North Atlantic

On September 7, 2000 the National Marine Fisheries Service announced that it was reinitiating consultation under Section 7 of the Endangered Species Act on pelagic fisheries for swordfish, sharks, tunas, and billfish. 1 Bycatch of a protected sea turtle species is considered a take under the Endangered Species Act (PL93-205). On June 30, 2000 NMFS completed a Biological Opinion on an amendment to the Highly Migratory Pelagic Fisheries Management Plan that concluded that the continued operation of the pelagic longline fishery was likely to jeopardize the continued existence of loggerhead and leatherback sea turtles.2 Since that Biological Opinion was issued NMFS concluded that further analyses of observer data and additional population modeling of loggerhead sea turtles was needed to determine more precisely the impact of the pelagic longline fishery on turtles. 3,4 Hence, the reinitiation of consultation. The documents that follow constitute the scientific review and synthesis of information pertaining to the narrowly defined reinitiation of consultation: the impact of the pelagic longline fishery on loggerhead and leatherback sea turtles The document is in 3 parts, plus 5 appendices. Part I is a stock assessment of loggerhead sea turtles of the Western North Atlantic. Part II is a stock assessment of leatherback sea turtles of the Western North Atlantic. Part III is an assessment of the impact of the pelagic longline fishery on loggerhead and leatherback sea turtles of the Western North Atlantic. These documents were prepared by the NMFS Southeast Fisheries Science Center staff and academic colleagues at Duke University and Dalhousie University. Personnel involved from the SEFSC include Joanne Braun-McNeill, Lisa Csuzdi, Craig Brown, Jean Cramer, Sheryan Epperly, Steve Turner, Wendy Teas, Nancy Thompson, Wayne Witzell, Cynthia Yeung, and also Jeff Schmid under contract from the University or Miami. Our academic colleagues, Ransom Myers, Keith Bowen, and Leah Gerber from Dalhousie University and Larry Crowder and Melissa Snover from Duke University, also recipients of a Pew Charitable Trust Grant for a Comprehensive Study of the Ecological Impacts of the Worldwide Pelagic Longline Industry, made significant contributions to the quantitative analyses and we are very grateful for their collaboration. We appreciate the reviews of the stock definition sections on loggerheads and leatherbacks by Brian Bowen, University of Florida, and Peter Dutton, National Marine Fisheries Service Southwest Fisheries Science Center, respectively, and the comments of the NMFS Center of Independent Experts reviewers Robert Mohn, Ian Poiner, and YouGan Wang on the entire document. We also wish to acknowledge all the unpublished data used herein which were contributed by many researchers, especially the coordinators and volunteers of the nesting beach surveys and the sea turtle stranding and salvage network and the contributors to the Cooperative Marine Turtle Tagging Program. (PDF contains 349 pages)

Economic Effects of Global Warming under Stock Growth Uncertainty: The European Sardine Fishery

Global warming of the oceans is expected to alter the environmental conditions that determine the growth of a fishery resource. Most climate change studies are based on models and scenarios that focus on economic growth, or they concentrate on simulating the potential losses or cost to fisheries due to climate change. However, analysis that addresses model optimization problems to better understand of the complex dynamics of climate change and marine ecosystems is still lacking. In this paper a simple algorithm to compute transitional dynamics in order to quantify the effect of climate change on the European sardine fishery is presented. The model results indicate that global warming will not necessarily lead to a monotonic decrease in the expected biomass levels. Our results show that if the resource is exploited optimally then in the short run, increases in the surface temperature of the fishery ground are compatible with higher expected biomass and economic profit.