Gestão Estratégica da Comunicação de Crise

No cenário competitivo e ambiente complexo, com os stakeholders cada vez mais exigentes, investimentos por parte das empresas na gestão da comunicação de crise, é uma necessidade que se faz sentir. Crises são fenómenos disruptivos que acontecem na vida das organizações e que não raro abalem toda a estrutura organizacional, que se não resolvidos a tempo poderão afectar gravemente a reputação da empresa. Neste contexto tomou-se por objecto de estudo cinco empresas nacionais que actuam em sectores diferentes, no sentido de descobrir o que tem feito, se o tem feito no sentido de gerirem as crises organizacionais. Metodologicamente procedeu-se a uma abordagem teórica no que concerne aos elementos pertinentes do tema em análise. Também fez-se uma análise PEST perspectivando uma melhor compreensão do ambiente na qual operam as empresas cabo-verdianas, assim como uma análise sobre a forma como utilizam a sua comunicação. Realizou-se também uma pesquisa quantitativa tendo por finalidade descobrir o que as empresas têm feito no sentido de prevenirem, gerirem e aprenderem com as crises.

On the impact of fundamentals, liquidity and coordination on market stability

We develop a coordination game to model interactions betweenfundamentals and liquidity during unstable periods in financial markets.We then propose a flexible econometric framework for estimationof the model and analysis of its quantitative implications. The specificempirical application is carry trades in the yen dollar market, includingthe turmoil of 1998. We find a generally very deep market, withlow information disparities amongst agents. We observe occasionallyepisodes of market fragility, or turmoil with up by the escalator, downby the elevator patterns in prices. The key role of strategic behaviorin the econometric model is also confirmed.

Financial development, financial fragility and growth

This paper studies the apparent contradiction between two strands of the literature on the effects of financial intermediation on economic activity. On the one hand, the empirical growth literature finds a positive effect of financial depth as measured by, for instance, private domestic credit and liquid liabilities (e.g., Levine, Loayza, and Beck 2000). On the other hand, the banking and currency crisis literature finds that monetary aggregates, such as domestic credit, are among the best predictors of crises and their related economic downturns (e.g., Kaminski and Reinhart 1999). The paper accounts for these contrasting effects based on the distinction between the short- and long-run impacts of financial intermediation. Working with a panel of cross-country and time-series observations, the paper estimates an encompassing model of short- and long-run effects using the Pooled Mean Group estimator developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999). The conclusion from this analysis is that a positive long-run relationship between financial intermediation and output growth co-exists with a, mostly, negative short-run relationship. The paper further develops an explanation for these contrasting effects by relating them to recent theoretical models, by linking the estimated short-run effects to measures of financial fragility(namely, banking crises and financial volatility), and by jointly analyzing the effects of financial depth and fragility in classic panel growth regressions.

Modelo de Relacionamento Banca-Pme

Embora as PME sejam consideradas o motor do crescimento europeu, devido a sua capacidade de inovação e criação de emprego, a sua dificuldade em conseguir financiamento faz-se sentir agudamente. Daí, para uma economia que deseja prosperar, torna-se crucial garantir-lhes melhor acesso aos créditos, principalmente através de empréstimos bancários. Este trabalho revisa o debate sobre as relações existente entre a banca e as PME no mercado português. A amostra baseia-se num inquérito dirigido aos gestores de empresas da zona centro de Lisboa das cinco maiores instituições bancárias a operar em Portugal, a fim de avaliar as suas percepções sobre o relacionamento com as PME. Constatou-se que a relação banca-PME não tem ainda uma base teórica sólida, apesar de inúmeros estudos sobre a importância de manter uma clara e total confiança entre as partes. Todavia, a literatura destaca, crescentemente, a ideia de que o mercado das PME pode ser um segmento rentável para os bancos. Este inquérito apoia esta percepção, embora de uma forma menos acentuada, comparativamente à evidenciada nas várias observações teóricas e empíricas. A alta centralização dos bancos inqueridos em informações de carácter financeiro aquando da avaliação inicial de um crédito, na avaliação de um empréstimo adicional e na análise de um relacionamento contínuo, demonstram esta falta de confiança entre as partes. De igual modo, constatou-se pouca atenção à rotatividade dos gestores de empresas, o que pode prejudicar o aprofundamento de uma relação com as PME. Ainda assim, os bancos têm reconfigurados as suas organizações e têm criados departamentos descentralizados e/ou separados nas suas operações para melhor servir as PME. As próprias características das PME e as percepções de maiores riscos são apontadas como os principais factores que limitam o envolvimento dos bancos com as PME.

The sustainable debts of Philip II: A reconstruction of Castile's fiscal position, 1566-1596

The defaults of Philip II have attained mythical status as the origin of sovereigndebt crises. We reassess the fiscal position of Habsburg Castile, derivingcomprehensive estimates of revenue, debt, and expenditure from new archivaldata. The king s debts were sustainable. Primary surpluses were large and rising.Debt-to-revenue ratios remained broadly unchanged during Philip s reign.Castilian finances in the sixteenth century compare favorably with those of otherearly modern fiscal states at the height of their imperial ambitions, includingBritain. The defaults of Philip II therefore reflected short-term liquidity crises,and were not a sign of unsustainable debts.

Financial integration, productivity and capital accumulation

Understanding the mechanism through which financial globalization affect economic performance is crucial for evaluating the costs and benefits of opening financial markets. This paper is a first attempt at disentangling the effects of financial integration on the two main determinants of economic performance: productivity (TFP)and investments. I provide empirical evidence from a sample of 93 countries observed between 1975 and 1999. The results suggest that financial integration has a positive direct effect on productivity, while it spurs capital accumulation only with some delay and indirectly, since capital follows the rise in productivity. I control for indirect effects of financial globalization through banking crises. Such episodes depress both investments and TFP, though they are triggered by financial integration only to a minor extent. The paper also provides a discussion of a simple model on the effects of financial integration, and shows additional empirical evidence supporting it.

Why do emerging economies borrow short term?

We argue that one reason why emerging economies borrow short term is that it is cheaperthan borrowing long term. This is especially the case during crises, as in these episodes therelative cost of long-term borrowing increases. We construct a unique database of sovereignbond prices, returns, and issuances at di¤erent maturities for 11 emerging economies from 1990to 2009 and present a set of new stylized facts. On average, these countries pay a higher riskpremium on long-term than on short-term bonds. During crises, the di¤erence between the tworisk premia increases and issuance shifts towards shorter maturities. To illustrate our argument,we present a simple model in which the maturity structure is the outcome of a risk sharingproblem between an emerging economy subject to rollover crises and risk averse internationalinvestors.

When in peril, retrench: Testing the portfolio channel of contagion

One plausible mechanism through which financial market shocks may propagate across countriesis through the impact that past gains and losses may have on investors risk aversion and behavior. This paper presents a stylized model illustrating how heterogeneous changes in investors risk aversion affect portfolio allocation decisions and stock prices. Our empirical findings suggest that when funds returns are below average, they adjust their holdings toward the average (or benchmark) portfolio. In so doing, funds tend to sell the assets of countries in which they were overweight , increasing their exposure to countries in which they were underweight. Based on this insight, the paper constructs an index of financial interdependence which reflects the extent to which countries share overexposed funds. The index helps in explain the pattern of stock market comovement across countries. Moreover, a comparison of this interdependence measure to indices of trade or commercial bank linkages indicates that our index can improve predictions about which countries are more likely to be affected by contagion from crisis centers.

A Luta Contra a Desertificação em Cabo Verde

O problema da seca, dos processos de desertificação e da fome são particularmente acutilantes no arquipélago de Cabo Verde, onde a irregularidade das chuvas associada ao carácter insular e às características do relevo, muito acentuado nas ilhas com maior potencial agrícola, constituem desafios avassaladores, que no passado implicavam a morte por fome de percentagens significativas da população. Após as fomes da década de 1940, começaram a ser implementadas um conjunto de infra-estruturas de combate à desertificação, baseadas na conservação do solo e da água, que hoje são omnipresentes na paisagem da ilha de Santiago e das ilhas com maior vocação agrícola, e que em muito contribuem para que desde então os períodos de seca não tenham degenerado em crises alimentares sérias. Neste trabalho fazemos o inventário das diferentes técnicas usadas num esforço colectivo que ganhou um fôlego acrescido depois da independência, e que constitui um dos pilares da sociedade Cabo Verdiana no caminho para o desenvolvimento sustentável.

Cape Verde - Diagnostic Trade Inttegration study Update - 2013

This Report is an update of the Cape Verde Diagnostic Trade Integration Study, titled Cape Verde’s Insertion into the Global Economy, produced and validated by the Government of Cape Verde in December 2008. Like the previous 2008 study, this Cape Verde Diagnostic Trade Integration Study Update provides a critical examination of the major institutional and production constraints that hinder Cape Verde’s ability to capitalize fully on the growth and welfare gains from its integration into the world economy. As a policy report, this study offers a set of priority policies and measures that can be implemented by both the public and private sectors to mitigate and surmount these supply side and institutional constraints. These recommendations are summarized in an Action Matrix. The Report is fruit of the generous support of the multi-donor program the Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF). In every crisis there is an opportunity. Four years after the validation of the country’s first Diagnostic Trade Integration Study in 2008, Cape Verde finds itself in a drastically altered external environment. Cape Verde faces a worsened external environment than four years ago, when it was also traversing years of crisis as global food and energy prices escalated. Just as the country was validating its first trade study in late 2008, and celebrating its graduation from the list of Least Developed Countries, the onset of the deepest global recession in recent memory triggered an even worse external situation as the country’s principal source of markets, investments, remittances and aid, the Eurozone, unraveled economically and politically. As the Eurozone crisis spread, it was Cape Verde’s misfortune that the crisis contaminated precisely its biggest Eurozone partners and donors, such as Portugal, Spain and Italy. For such a highly dependent and exposed economy like that of Cape Verde, the deteriorating external sector has had a substantial negative impact on its macroeconomic performance. At the time of the validation workshop and graduation in 2008, no one could have foreseen or predicted the severity of the global crisis that followed. Despite traversing these years of adversity and external shocks, and suffering palpable setbacks, Cape Verde’s economy had proven surprisingly resilient, especially its principal sector, tourism. To its great credit, the country’s economic fundamentals are solid, and have been carefully and prudently managed over the years. For this reason alone, the country has thus far weathered the global and Eurozone crisis. Yet the near and medium term future remains uncertain. The country’s margin for maneuver has narrowed, its options far more limited, and hard choices lie ahead. Thus, there is no better time than now to analyze Cape Verde’s position in the global economy, and to examine the many challenges and opportunities it faces. The first diagnostic trade study outlined an ambitious agenda and set of policy strategies to enhance Cape Verde’s participation in the global economy. Written prior to the global crisis, the study did not, and could not, anticipate the scope and depth of the subsequent global and Eurozone crises. A few short months before the validation of the first DTIS Cape Verde joined the World Trade Organization (WTO). It has spent these four years adjusting to this status and implementing its commitments. At the same time, the country seeks greater economic integration with the European Union. Since 2008 the government has been investing heavily in the country’s economic infrastructure, focusing especially on fostering transformation in key sectors like agriculture, fisheries, tourism and creative industries. For these and many other reasons, it is both timely and urgent to review the road traveled since 2008. It is an opportune moment to reassess the country’s options, to rethink strategies, and to chart a new way forward that it is practical, implementable, and that builds on the country’s competitive advantages and current successes.

Bubbles and capital flows

This paper presents a stylized model of international trade and asset price bubbles. Its central insight is that bubbles tend to appear and expand in countries where productivity is low relative to the rest of the world. These bubbles absorb local savings, eliminating inefficient investments and liberating resources that are in part used to invest in high productivity countries. Through this channel, bubbles act as a substitute for international capital flows, improving the international allocation of investment and reducing rate-of-return differentials across countries. This view of asset price bubbles could eventually provide a simple account of some real world phenomenae that have been difficult to model before, such as the recurrence and depth of financial crises or their puzzling tendency to propagate across countries.

Qualidade de Atendimento Percebida pelos Clientes do “BCA” em Santa Catarina (Ilha De Santiago)

Cada vez mais é reconhecida que a qualidade percebida e a satisfação de clientes constituem aspectos importantes para a competitividade em qualquer tipo organização. As organizações bancárias não fogem a regra. É nesse propósito que se pretendeu medir a qualidade no atendimento percebida pelos clientes do BCA em Santa Catarina, com o objectivo de identificar os factores determinantes dessa qualidade percebida, estudar o desempenho de cada um desses factores, medir o nível de qualidade percebida, bem como, sugerir algumas medidas estratégicas para melhorar o nível de satisfação dos clientes. A Metodologia de trabalho utilizada para alcançar os objectivos traçados assentou numa pesquisa bibliográfica relacionada com o tema, nomeadamente, consulta de livros técnicos e artigos publicados relacionados com a gestão da qualidade no geral e a qualidade no atendimento em particular. Por outro lado, foram aplicados questionários a uma amostra de 116 clientes da Agência do BCA em Santa Catarina com o propósito de medir as discrepâncias entre as expectativas e qualidade percebida, baseado do modelo desenvolvido por Parasuraman et al. (1985) – o modelo SERVQUAL. Os resultados aferidos através da técnica estatística da análise factorial efectuada aos dados recolhidos, utilizando o softwere Statistical Package for Social Science – SPSS, mostram evidencias claras de que, apesar da qualidade percebida pelos clientes do BCA em Santa Catarina situarem num nível elevado, a Administração do BCA precisa melhorar (traçar novas linhas estratégicas com objectivo de melhorar o nível de satisfação dos clientes), pois, as expectativas não foram superadas em nenhuma das cinco dimensões da qualidade (Tangibilidade, Fiabilidade, Capacidade de Resposta e Segurança, Empatia).

Why are capital flows so much more volatile in emerging than in developed countries?

The standard deviations of capital flows to emerging countries are 80 percent higher than those to developed countries. First, we show that very little of this difference can be explained by more volatile fundamentals or by higher sensitivity to fundamentals. Second, we show that most of the difference in volatility can be accounted for by three characteristics of capital flows: (i) capital flows to emerging countries are more subject to occasional large negative shocks ( crises ) than those to developed countries, (ii) shocks are subject to contagion, and (iii) the most important one shocks to capital flows to emerging countries are more persistent than those to developed countries. Finally, we study a number of country characteristics to determine which are most associated with capital flow volatility. Our results suggest that underdevelopment of domestic financial markets, weak institutions, and low income per capita, are all associated with capital flow volatility.

Resiliência: estudo de caso com crianças órfãs afectadas pelo VIH/SIDA cidade da Praia

O presente estudo, desenvolvido no âmbito da apresentação da memória do fim do curso, para a obtenção do grau de Licenciatura em Psicologia, questiona a resiliência nas crianças órfãs afectadas pelo VIH/SIDA, procurando conhecer o processo de resiliência das crianças órfãs e afectadas pelo VIH/SIDA. A nossa amostra foi de três crianças dos nove aos onze anos de idade, órfãs devido ao VIH/SIDA, e acompanhadas pela MORABI, organização não governamental que trabalha também com crianças órfãs da SIDA. O recrutamento dos sujeitos para a amostra foi feito por conveniência. Para a recolha de dados, elaboramos um guião de entrevista para as crianças e seus encarregados de educação, a fim de levantarmos os aspectos sócio-demográficos e a percepção que as crianças têm acerca dos acontecimentos no seu quotidiano e na sua vida. Também utilizamos, escala de avaliação de três dimensões da competência social e um guião de entrevista semi-estruturada que avalia três dimensões da auto-estima e a auto-estima global. Chegamos a conclusão que existe relação entre a auto-estima, competência social, relacionamento familiar e a superação da perda dos pais, nas crianças órfãs afectadas pelo VIH/SIDA, e de acordo com os parâmetros de medida que utilizamos verificamos que as crianças tiveram a capacidade rápida de recuperação, devido aos factores de protecção.

Post crisis challenges to bank regulation

The current crisis has swept aside not only the whole of the US investment banking industry butalso the consensual perception of banking risks, contagion and their implication for bankingregulation. As everyone agrees now, risks where mispriced, they accumulated in neuralgic pointsof the financial system, and where amplified by procyclical regulation as well as by the instabilityand fragility of financial institutions.The use of ratings as carved in stone and lack of adequate procedure to swiftly deal withsystemic institutions bankruptcy (whether too-big-to-fail, too complex to fail or too-many to fail).The current paper will not deal with the description and analysis of the crisis, already covered inother contributions to this issue will address the critical choice regulatory authorities will face. Inthe future regulation has to change, but it is not clear that it will change in the right direction. Thismay occur if regulatory authorities, possibly influenced by public opinion and political pressure,adopt an incorrect view of financial crisis prevention and management. Indeed, there are twoapproaches to post-crisis regulation. One is the rare event approach, whereby financial crises willoccur infrequently, but are inescapable.