Wealth shocks, credit-supply shocks, and asset allocation:evidence from household and firm portfolios

We use a unique dataset with bank clients’ security holdings for all German banks to examine how macroeconomic shocks affect asset allocation preferences of households and non-financial firms. Our analysis focuses on two alternative mechanisms which can influence portfolio choice: wealth shocks, which are represented by the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, and credit-supply shocks which arise from reductions in borrowing abilities during bank distress. We document het- erogeneous responses to these two types of shocks. While households with large holdings of secu- rities from stressed Eurozone countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) decrease the degree of concentration in their security portfolio as a result of the Eurozone crisis, non-financial firms with similar levels of holdings from stressed Eurozone countries do not. Credit-supply shocks at the bank level (caused by bank distress) result in lower concentration, for both households and non-financial corporations. We also show that only shocks to corporate credit bear ramifications on bank clients’ portfolio concentration, while shocks in retail credit are inconsequential. Our results are robust to falsification tests, propensity score matching techniques, and instrumental variables estimation.

Predicting practical benefits of dynamic asset ratings of 33kv distribution transformers

This paper reports potential benefits around dynamic thermal rating prediction of primary transformers within Western Power Distribution (WPD) managed Project FALCON (Flexible Approaches to Low Carbon Optimised Networks). Details of the thermal modelling, parameter optimisation and results validation are presented with asset and environmental data (measured and day/week-ahead forecast) which are used for determining dynamic ampacity. Detailed analysis of ratings and benefits and confidence in ability to accurately predict dynamic ratings are presented. Investigating the effect of sustained ONAN rating compared to a dynamic rating shows that there is scope to increase sustained ratings under ONAN operating conditions by up to 10% higher between December and March with a high degree of confidence. However, under high ambient temperature conditions this dynamic rating may also reduce in the summer months.

Out of credit: Evaluating the impact of the EU structural funds on Hungarian small business growth and access to finance

Totaling EUR 29 billion, Hungary is in the midst of implementing its largest economic development program in its young democratic history. At the center of the European Union led development program is an effort to revitalize and reequip Hungary’s languishing small and medium sized enterprises (SME), long the country's heart of employment. This paper examines the efficiency and impact of two Structural Fund's instruments to enhance SME development – ECOP 2.1.1 and JEREMIE. A survey of 1275 SME and interviews with dozens of top policy-makers paint a flawed development program in dire need of reform. Despite this, empirical analysis suggests JEREMIE funds may have dampened the effects of the financial crisis and are crucial for the continued liquidity of SME, who have been particularly hit hard by the world financial crisis.

Megtakarítások és külső finanszírozás az amerikai gazdaságban. A hitelpiaci válság háttere (1997-2007) (Savings and external financing in the American economy. The background to the credit-market crisis (1997–2007))

A tanulmány nem az aktuális hitelpiaci válság enyhítésének kérdésével foglalkozik, hanem az amerikai gazdaság elmúlt négy évtizedének általános és az utolsó tíz évének konkrét beruházási-megtakarítási és növekedési tendenciáit igyekszik feltárni. Azt vizsgálja, hogy milyen mélyebb, belföldi eredetű szerkezeti okai vannak a nemzetközivé dagadt jelzáloghitel-válságnak. A cikk a nyitott gazdaság külső finanszírozással összefüggő mérlegazonosságainak alapján arra a következtetésre jut, hogy az ingatlanpiaci visszaesés és a kibocsátás zsugorodása az Egyesült Államok gazdaságában már több mint másfél évtizede kialakult kedvezőtlen, de még tovább romló belföldi megtakarítási folyamatok következménye. A jelzálogpiac krízise és a lakásépítés drámai visszaesése a túlfogyasztásra és túlhitelezésre ösztönző pénzügyi környezet eredménye. A lakáspiaci és a hitelezési ciklusok pénzügyi innovációkkal történő megnyújtása inkább növelte, mint csökkentette a kibocsátásingadozás érzékenységét. A legfőbb hitelezők Kína, Japán, Németország inkább dolláralapú amerikai vállalati felvásárlásokkal ellensúlyozták a dollárgyengülésből elszenvedett veszteségeiket. 1997-2007 között az Amerikából külföldön befektetett dolláraktívák - javarészt a valuta leértékelődése nyomán - jelentős hozamemelkedést élveztek, és számottevően tompították a belföldön képződött jövedelmek csökkenését. A dollárleértékelődés az eszköz- (és nemcsak az áruexport) oldalon is előnyöket hozott számos nagyvállalatnak. / === / Rather than dealing with the immediate policy steps to dampen the crisis, this paper attempts to reveal the worsening savings/consumption pattern of the US economy over the last ten years. Based on the closed logic of open-economy GDP-accounting, it argues that the current crisis is deeply rooted in shrinking public and private savings trends discernible as early as 1997. The current mortgage-market crisis and deep fall in new residential housing are products of a distorted financial environment that encourages over-borrowing and over-consumption. Expansion of the credit cycle through successive financial innovations has increased, not decreased output volatility. But the main foreign lenders to the US—Japan, China and Germany—have managed to offset their losses on US securities by buying into US companies. Large US firms have also benefited from rapid dollar depreciation as USD-denominated yields on their foreign assets experienced strong run-ups. The weak dollar has also helped American firms with large assets on foreign markets. So there were strong benefits for the US, not just on the goods-export side, but on the asset side, an aspect rarely emphasized.

A fogyasztói hitelszerződések új szabályai (New regulations the credit agreements for consumers)

A fogyasztói hitelszerződések jogát az Európai Unión belül a 2008/48/EK irányelv szabályozta újra, amely a magyar jogalkotó számára is a belső jogba történő átültetés kötelezettségét írta elő. Ennek az implementációnak az eredményeként született meg a fogyasztónak nyújtott hitelről szóló 2009. évi CLXII. törvény. Jelen cikk a jelzáloghitelek szabályozására vonatkozó elképzeléseket, majd a hiteltermékek reklámozására – kereskedelmi kommunikációjára – irányadó szabályokat vizsgálja meg részletesebben. Ennek során bemutatja a hiteltermékek reklámozásáról szóló, hatályos jogszabályokban fellelhető ellentmondásokat is. Ezt követően a szerződéskötést megelőző tájékoztatási kötelezettséget, valamint az előtörlesztés intézménye körüli kérdéseket elemzi. Végül alátámasztani kívánja azt az álláspontot, hogy a fogyasztói kezességi szerződésekre is indokolt lett volna kiterjeszteni az új irányelvben foglalt védelmi szintet, a jelzáloggal fedezett hitelekre azonban nem, hiszen ezekre vonatkozóan további uniós jogalkotási lépések várhatóak. / === / The consumer protection law is governed by Directive 2008/48/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and was implemented to the Hungarian legal system through the Act on Credit Provided for Consumers (162/2009). This article aims at observing the relevant provisions on mortgage as well as the commercials and advertisements of mortgages. This article will show that there are many confl icts within the relevant legal provisions and will further examine the obligation to information and the institution of early repayment. The author of this article believes that the protection created by the new directive should have been extended to guarantee contracts as well, but not to hypothec contracts as the latter are expected to be governed through future EU legislation.

Can Europe recover without credit?

Data from 135 countries covering five decades suggests that creditless recoveries, in which the stock of real credit does not return to the pre-crisis level for three years after the GDP trough, are not rare and are characterised by remarkable real GDP growth rates: 4.7 percent per year in middle-income countries and 3.2 percent per year in high-income countries. However, the implications of these historical episodes for the current European situation are limited, for two main reasons. First, creditless recoveries are much less common in high-income countries, than in low-income countries which are financially undeveloped. European economies heavily depend on bank loans and research suggests that loan supply played a major role in the recent weak credit performance of Europe. There are reasons to believe that, despite various efforts, normal lending has not yet been restored. Limited loan supply could be disruptive for the European economic recovery and there has been only a minor substitution of bank loans with debt securities. Second, creditless recoveries were associated with significant real exchange rate depreciation, which has hardly occurred so far in most of Europe. This stylised fact suggests that it might be difficult to re-establish economic growth in the absence of sizeable real exchange rate depreciation, if credit growth does not return.

Can Europe recover without credit?

Data from 135 countries covering five decades suggests that creditless recoveries, in which the stock of real credit does not return to the pre-crisis level for three years after the GDP trough, are not rare and are characterised by remarkable real GDP growth rates: 4.7 percent per year in middle-income countries and 3.2 percent per year in high-income countries. However, the implications of these historical episodes for the current European situation are limited, for two main reasons. First, creditless recoveries are much less common in high-income countries, than in low-income countries which are financially undeveloped. European economies heavily depend on bank loans and research suggests that loan supply played a major role in the recent weak credit performance of Europe. There are reasons to believe that, despite various efforts, normal lending has not yet been restored. Limited loan supply could be disruptive for the European economic recovery and there has been only a minor substitution of bank loans with debt securities. Second, creditless recoveries were associated with significant real exchange rate depreciation, which has hardly occurred so far in most of Europe. This stylised fact suggests that it might be difficult to re-establish economic growth in the absence of sizeable real exchange rate depreciation, if credit growth does not return.

Bank financing of Hungarian SMEs: Getting over to credit crisis by state interventions

In this article we aimed to present and analyse the 21st century history of bank financing in the Hungarian small and medium enterprise (SME) sector in the period ranging from 2000 to 2012. The credit products offered by banks and credit unions are the most fundamental means of external financing capable of fulfilling the financing needs of a wide array of SMEs. The conditions of accessing credits and their prices exert a decisive influence on the profitability and business opportunities of SMEs. As a result of economic slowdown SMEs had to face higher interest rates, decreasing credit limits, and bank financing options that became increasingly slowly accessible alongside stricter conditions. Due to this process SMEs business performance had been falling continuously which has a destructive contribution to the national economy. In the first chapter of the article we present the dynamic development of credit financing in the Hungarian SME sector, along with the causes that triggered it, then we will continue with the negative tendencies dating from the onset of the 2008 debt crisis. In the second chapter we discuss the vicious circle, due to which the business performance of the SMEs, as well as the conditions of access to credits and their prices, have entered into a negative spiral. In the third and final chapter we make suggestions regarding the direction and means of necessary government intervention, in order to stop and reverse the negative tendencies observed in SME credit financing.

The effects of sex of teacher, sex of scenario principal, and leadership style on the performance ratings of scenario principals by teachers

This study was designed to address questions regarding the effects of sex and leadership style on teacher perceptions of principal effectiveness. On a researcher-designed instrument, middle school teachers rated the effectiveness of a scenario principal's response in several situations. The responses reflected varying levels of Task and Relationship Behavior.^ The design incorporated two between subjects factors (Teacher Sex and Principal Sex) and one within subjects factor (Leadership Style) which was treated as a repeated measure. An analysis of variance revealed no significant effects except for Leadership Style. Overall, High Task/High Relationship behavior rated significantly higher and Low Task/Low Relationship rated significantly lower than the others. The null hypothesis concerning differences could not be rejected and the stated research hypotheses were not supported.^ Additional analyses of variance were conducted substituting subject demographic variables for Teacher Sex in the research design. No significant interactions or main effects other than Leadership Style were noted when either Age or Ethnicity were substituted.^ A significant two-way interaction was noted for Teacher Experience and Leadership Style (p =.0316). Less experienced teachers rated principal's performance lower when exhibiting High Task/Low Relationship style than did more experienced teachers. A significant three-way interaction was noted for Administrative Aspiration x Principal Sex x Leadership Style (p =.0294). Teachers who indicated an intent to enter administration differed more on their ratings between male and female principals exhibiting mixed styles of High Task/Low Relationship and Low Task/High Relationship than did teachers who indicated no or undecided.^ Sex of the teacher appears less important than sex of the principal on performance ratings. Results suggest further study of the effects of teacher experience and teacher administrative aspiration on perceptions of principal effectiveness. ^

The effect of the advanced placement examination for credit policy by the Florida State universities on the acceleration of a student's postsecondary education

The purpose of this research study was to determine if the Advanced Placement program as it is recognized by the universities in the Florida State University System (SUS) truly serves as an acceleration mechanism for those students who enter an SUS institution with passing AP scores. Despite mandates which attempt to control uniformity of policy, each public university in Florida determines which courses will be exempted and the number of credits they will grant for passing Advanced Placement courses.^ This is a descriptive study in which the AP policies of each of the SUS institutions were compared. Additionally, the college attendance and graduation data on members of a cohort of 593 Broward County high school graduates of the class of June, 1992 were compared. Approximately 28% of the cohort members entered university with passing Advanced Placement scores.^ The rate of early and on time graduation was significantly dependent on the Advanced Placement standing of the students in the cohort. Given the financial and human cost involved, it is recommended that all state universities bring their Advanced Placement policies into line with each other and implement a uniform Advanced Placement policy. It is also recommended that a follow-up study be conducted with a new cohort bound under the current 120 credit limitation for graduation. ^